NFL Week 4 Predictions: Early Projections for Vegas' Odds, Lines and Spreads

Excitement, surprises and some highly competitive games have filled the third week of the 2016 NFL season. So far, seven Week 3 games have been decided by seven points or fewer, and one of those was decided in overtime.

We've also had a couple of notable upsets. The Washington Redskins, for example, bested the New York Giants while on the road, and the New England Patriots managed to win big with a third-string rookie quarterback.

Oh, and the Philadelphia Eagles thumped the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 31-point blowout.

With only Monday night's contest—between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons—left on the Week 3 slate, now is a great time to examine the season's action so far and the upcoming schedule for Week 4.

We're going to take a look at the early odds for next week's games, which begin on Thursday night with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Miami Dolphins. We'll also be making our picks against the line and examining some key matchups for Week 4.

As always, our friends over at Odds Shark provide the point spreads.

Game	Line	Prediction
Miami at Cincinnati	CIN -7	Cincinnati
Indianapolis at Jacksonville	JAX -2.5	Indianapolis
Seattle at NY Jets	SEA -3.5	NY Jets
Detroit at Chicago	DET -2	Detroit
Cleveland at Washington	WAS -6.5	Cleveland
Tennessee at Houston	HOU -4.5	Houston
Buffalo at New England	NE -4	New England
Carolina at Atlanta	CAR -3	Carolina
Oakland at Baltimore	BAL -3.5	Oakland
Denver at Tampa Bay	DEN -3.5	Denver
New Orleans at San Diego	SD -4	New Orleans
Dallas at San Francisco	Even	Dallas
Los Angeles at Arizona	ARI -8.5	Los Angeles
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -4	Pittsburgh
NY Giants at Minnesota	MIN -3.5	Minnesota

Matchups to Watch

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

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Sunday's game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars appears to be a tricky one because both of these teams are flawed.

The Colts have a top-tier passer in Andrew Luck, as well as a quality offensive supporting cast. However, Indianapolis' defense is suspect. The Jaguars also have an emerging quarterback in Blake Bortles to go with a number of top-flight offensive weapons. Like Indianapolis, the Jaguars defense has problems—even though it was a focal point of the offseason.

Pro Football Focus rated the Colts 31st in overall defense through Sunday of Week 3. The Jaguars are rated a bit higher at 21st overall.

This game has the potential to turn into a shootout.

Further complicating matters is the fact that this one takes place in London at 9:30 a.m. ET. Though the Jaguars have experience playing across the Atlantic, there will be some much-needed adjustments by both teams.

Jacksonville is designated as the home team here, but that isn't likely to give the team any real advantage. The Jaguars were actually at home in Week 3 against the Baltimore Ravens but still lost the turnover-filled contest 19-17.

Bortles tossed three interceptions against the Ravens, and the Jaguars will have to cut down on mistakes considerably to pull out a win against their division rival next week.

"We had unbelievable field position and continued to tremendously underachieve as an offense," Bortles said of his team's performance against Baltimore, per John Oehser of the team's official website. "That's nobody's fault outside of mine, I believe."

Even if Jacksonville manages to pull off the feat, though, it's hard to picture the team winning by a field goal or more.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

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The Dallas Cowboys rattled off their most impressive performance of the season so far on Sunday night against the Chicago Bears. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott put on a clinic as the Cowboys thrashed the Bears 31-17.

The night wasn't without some negatives for Dallas, though. The defense seemed to wear considerably in the second half, and the Bears had a couple of chances to pull within striking distance. Unfortunately, the injury-riddled Bears made enough of their own blunders that the Cowboys escaped a close finish.

This inconsistent Dallas defense—which gave up 390 total yards to the Brian Hoyer-led Bears offense—could be a liability on the road against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4. However, we're guessing that Prescott, Elliott and Co. carry enough momentum into the matchup for the Cowboys to come out ahead.

The 49ers are a better team than their last two games might indicate—they've lost the two by a combined score of 83-45—but the team will have to contain the Dallas offense and rack up some points in order to win this one.

Putting up points could be the big problem here. The offense has played poorly for the better part of the season, and quarterback Blaine Gabbert has been especially shaky. Through three weeks, he has completed just 55.2 percent of his passes, has three interceptions to go with three touchdowns and has a passer rating of just 68.6.

As Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee pointed out during Sunday's game, Gabbert also has a tendency to disappear for stretches:

Though Prescott has only one passing touchdown this season, he has completed 66.7 percent of his passes and has yet to commit a turnover.

We're giving Prescott the edge in the quarterback matchup, and the Cowboys get the edge in the game.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

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The Giants have a talented offense featuring the likes of Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard. This, along with a much-improved defensive front, is why the Giants have a shot at upsetting the Vikings in Week 4.

However, the Vikings are looking like one of the top overall teams in the NFL through three weeks. Not only is Minnesota undefeated, but the team has produced back-to-back quality wins by beating the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers in consecutive weeks.

The Vikings' win over the Panthers on Sunday was especially impressive.

The Minnesota defense—which is beginning to look like a truly elite unit—made life miserable for quarterback Cam Newton and the Panthers offense. Minnesota snagged three interceptions and scored on a safety.

Offensively, the Vikings continue to grow under new starter Sam Bradford. Though Bradford only passed for 171 yards, he led the offense to 13 points against a solid Panthers defensive unit. Even without the punt return touchdown by Marcus Sherels, the Vikings would have won this one.

Now Minnesota returns home to face a Giants team that couldn't close the deal against the Redskins on Sunday. New York is much better on defense than it was in 2015, but the pass defense still needs work. So far, the Giants have allowed an average of 262.3 yards through the air per game—15th in the NFL.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins was able to slice through the Giants defense in Week 3. We're guessing the renewed Bradford can do the same in Week 4. If the Vikings defense can play like it has been, winning by at least four shouldn't be a problem for Minnesota.