Week 1 NFL Picks: Season-Opening Betting Odds, Vegas Spreads and Projections

The most experienced NFL bettors know it is critical to start the season off with a bang.

Not only does a hot start provide a deeper bankroll capable of going the distance, it gives a bettor an idea as to how the league stacks up.

Nailing Week 1 also provides an annual lesson on the importance of early prep. Those who take advantage of lines early in the week will find much better deals than late in the week after Las Vegas has adjusted to protect the house.

This isn't as difficult as it sounds, with smart projections and analysis the way to put together the puzzle before Las Vegas can figure out what's happening. Here's a look at the full list of Week 1 odds and projections.

NFL Week 1 Odds

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Top Early Odds to Bet

Chicago at Houston (-6.5)

Matchup	Spread	Predicted Winner
Carolina at Denver (TNF)	CAR -3	CAR 17-10
Buffalo at Baltimore	BAL -3	BUF 20-17
Green Bay at Jacksonville	GB -5.5	GB 27-20
San Diego at Kansas City	KC -7	KC 33-20
Oakland at New Orleans	NO -1	NO 21-17
Chicago at Houston	HOU -6.5	HOU 30-17
Cleveland at Philadelphia	PHI -4	CLE 24-20
Minnesota at Tennessee	MIN -2	MIN 23-20
Tampa Bay at Atlanta	ATL -3	TB 24-23
Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets	CIN -3	CIN 27-23
Miami at Seattle	SEA -10.5	SEA 20-7
N.Y. Giants at Dallas	E	NYG 24-20
Detroit at Indianapolis	IND -4	IND 28-24
New England at Arizona	ARI -6	ARI 27-17
Pittsburgh at Washington (MNF)	PIT -3	WAS 23-14
L.A. Rams at San Francisco (MNF)	LA -3	LA 17-13

Get this one while it's hot, folks.

The more one digs deeper on a showdown between the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans, the more one should find the latter sits at a bigger advantage than this line.

Chicago isn't a bad team per se, but it's one in a rebuild after letting a name such as Matt Forte walk over the offseason. Jay Cutler has Alshon Jeffery to lean on in the passing game, but the star wideout has been on and off the field with issues going into the season. The offensive line as a whole just had to undergo a shuffle after the team signed Josh Sitton, as the team announced.

That last bit is terrible news against a J.J. Watt-led defense. ESPN's Sarah Barshop caught up with Houston head coach Bill O'Brien on Watt's return from back surgery:

This is more about the Houston offense, though. Elite wideout DeAndre Hopkins will now catch passes from new quarterback Brock Osweiler. The ground game is really where Houston should bust it open, though. Chicago ranked 22nd against the rush last year, and Houston has a new lead back in Lamar Miller, who ran for 872 yards and eight scores last year on a 4.5 per-carry average.

While this isn't meant to suggest the Bears haven't made progress, these are two different teams in terms of goals and status, and the difference will show all day.

Prediction: Texans 30-17

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-3)

Easy money here—the Atlanta Falcons seem like one of those teams always hyped more than deserved to start a season. 

The proof here isn't hard to figure out, as the underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers swept the Falcons in the season series last year. One was a 23-20 overtime affair, the other a 23-19 home stand.

Tampa Bay is one of those teams where the only direction seemingly possible is up. Doug Martin rejuvenated himself in the backfield last year, and as a rookie, Jameis Winston threw for 4,042 yards with 22 touchdowns to 15 interceptions.

The outlook simply isn't as encouraging for the Falcons, a team that hasn't had a winning season since 2012. Matt Ryan is still trying to adapt to a new offense around him after throwing a ridiculous four red-zone interceptions last season, and Julio Jones suffered an ankle injury in the third week of the preseason.

With Jones possibly slowed and Ryan's fluency in the second year of Kyle Shanahan's offense an unknown, the growing Buccaneers should make it three in a row through strong defense and a Martin-led ground game.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 24-23

New England at Arizona (-6)

A New England Patriots-Arizona Cardinals encounter offers bettors a stark lesson in how to take advantage of outside factors. 

Not that it isn't obvious, but said factor here is Tom Brady's suspension, which comes at a terrible time for his team thanks to a date with the seemingly Super Bowl-ready Cardinals, a team coming off a 13-win season and an appearance in the NFC Championship.

Jimmy Garoppolo will attempt to orchestrate an upset for the Patriots in the wake of Brady sitting on the pine. The problem is he has attempted all of 31 career passes, meaning Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman will have to make up the difference in a big way. 

Arizona simply won't allow it. The Cardinals surrendered more than 20 points in a game all of six times last year, with the Tyrann Mathieu-led defense looking like its usual self on paper this year. On offense, Carson Palmer returns under center and figures to get versatile back David Johnson more involved than ever, perhaps leading to one of this year's notable breakout seasons.

This would look like a different conversation if Brady were to take the field. Even then, though, the high-flying Cardinals offense wouldn't look like much of an underdog. Without Brady, what the league hoped would act as an incredible appetizer to the full season is more of a lopsided encounter.

Prediction: Arizona 27-17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and are accurate as of September 6. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.