Fantasy Football Week 17: Tuesday's Daily Fantasy Market Report
Daily fantasy football players are tasked with converting the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace.
Most traditional fantasy leagues have concluded, but we continue to play the daily game all the way through the playoffs. The NFL news cycle is always churning out meaningful updates, which we must sift through to gain an edge. With this unique final week of the season, we'll need to decipher which teams will be resting players and identify the emergent assets due for upticks in usage.
For example, there is talk of the Pittsburgh Steelers resting workhorse tailback Le'Veon Bell, who has 41 more touches than any other player since Week 11. With the Steelers fixed as the third seed in the AFC playoffs, this inconsequential matchup with the Cleveland Browns could create some value for fantasy purposes.
This would prove entirely intriguing for DFS investors, as veteran tailback DeAngelo Williams is reasonably priced across both major marketplaces and could enjoy a rewarding workload against the AFC's most generous rush defense.
We detail this situation and other significant scenarios heading into the final week of the regular season. Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 17, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.
Uncertainty Surrounds Houston's Lamar Miller for Sunday
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Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle reports the Texans aren't sure if they'll deploy workhorse tailback Lamar Miller in Week 17.
Without any mobility in the playoff standings, it would honestly prove a bit confounding if Miller plays in the game after having endured several injuries with a career-high 299 touches this season.
Veteran change-of-pace back Alfred Blue capably filled in for Miller last week with a Miller-like 25 touches for 90 total yards and a score.
The Titans just allowed a rich total yardage outing to the Jacksonville Jaguars' Chris Ivory and are eliminated from contention and playing with a mistake-prone backup quarterback, thus Blue is intriguing if he nets the start at just $5,600 on FanDuel and an entirely reasonable $4,300 on DraftKings.
"Big Ben" and Le'Veon Bell Likely to Rest in Week 17
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The Steelers earned the third seed in the AFC playoffs when they beat the Baltimore Ravens in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. Without any mobility in the playoff structure, as in the Steelers are firmly fixed as the third seed, we could see several key starters rest against the Cleveland Browns this coming Sunday.
Longtime beat scribe Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports it's quite likely we'll see Ben Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell, among others, sit for the inconsequential finale.
Bell has 191 touches since Week 11 for an incredible 31.8 touches per game over this sample. The next closest player over this sample is the Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson, who has 150 touches. Given the team's lack of incentive this week, resting Bell makes perfect sense.
As for Roethlisberger, his likely absence means we can fade shares of the Steelers' passing game, even including Antonio Brown, given the lack of upside without their stalwart signal-caller in place.
Bell's absence means veteran DeAngelo Williams, who has proven awesomely productive in place of Bell over the past two seasons, is reasonably priced at $5,500 on DraftKings and is at the lowest possible price for tailbacks at just $4,500 on FanDuel. The Browns have allowed the second-most fantasy points and rushing yards to tailbacks this season, suggesting Williams can thrive in this spot.
Paxton Lynch Could Start for Denver in Season Finale
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With the Denver Broncos eliminated from the playoffs, signaling that both Super Bowl participants from last winter will miss the postseason this year, pundits are suggesting the team starts rookie signal-caller Paxton Lynch for the finale against the Oakland Raiders.
More specifically, longtime Broncos beat scribe Mike Klis of 9 News in Denver believes it's time to give the Memphis product more experience with an eye on grooming him for 2017: "And right now, the Broncos need their public. Fans want hope. This season is hopeless but Lynch would singlehandedly offer hope for a better future. All the other first-round quarterbacks are playing, ready or not.
With the Raiders still hunting a bye and the division crown despite losing starting quarterback Derek Carr to a season-ending leg injury, it's difficult to endorse Lynch as a fantasy flier. We're also fading shares of the team's passing weapons, namely Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, as the Raiders claim two starting outside corners rated in the top 27 at the position in coverage, per Pro Football Focus.
The key fantasy angle is deploying the Raiders' defense as a top streaming option in season-long leagues and as an upside-laden gem in DFS competition. The Raiders, thanks in large part to the elite play of edge menace and defensive player of the year candidate Khalil Mack, lead the NFL in pressure rate over the past five games.
The Raiders have produced an astounding pressure rate of 37.6 percent, measured as a sack, hit or hurry per opposing dropback.
The Raiders' D/ST costs just $2,800 on DraftKings and $4,400 on FanDuel. With such enviable pricing on DraftKings, we endorse building around this Oakland group in both cash and tournament lineups.
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Finding Value in the Seattle Seahawks' Offense
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The Seattle Seahawks' running game has uncharacteristically struggled this season, as they've been held to fewer than three yards per rush seven times this season—most in the league this year. For some context, they were held below this rate just four times between the 2012 and 2015 seasons.
Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll revealed in Monday's presser that tailback Thomas Rawls is ailing with a shoulder injury, per the team's website
Rawls has proven inefficient throughout the season and has battled injuries for much of the campaign. Again for context, Rawls is 43rd in fantasy points per game among tailbacks in ESPN standard leagues.
If Rawls is ruled out or deemed limited, we admire the upside of rookie tailback Alex Collins, priced at $5,800 on FanDuel and $4,600 on DraftKings. Seattle faces a San Francisco 49ers defense that has allowed 150.2 rushing yards per game to backs this season—the third-highest allowance rate since 2001.
Speedy second-year wideout Tyler Lockett, meanwhile, suffered a significant season-ending leg injury in Week 16 and had surgery on Saturday night, per Carroll.
Lockett's unfortunate injury adds to the intriguing upside for wideout Doug Baldwin, who netted a career-high 171 receiving yards against the Arizona Cardinals on a career-high 13 catches this past Saturday afternoon.
He is quietly fourth in the NFL with 92 receptions, and only Odell Beckham Jr. of the New York Giants and Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers have more touchdowns since the start of last season.
Baldwin posted his previous career-high of 164 yards against the 49ers in Week 2, while a rematch offers increased interest given what could be a sizable market share of the Seattle passing game. Baldwin offers premium upside at WR2 pricing, found at $7,200 on DraftKings and $7,100 on FanDuel.
Melvin Gordon Remains Uncertain, While Ronnie Hillman Could Provide Value
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We often ask a series of rhetorical questions near the end of the NFL season. Such as, would you risk the health of a talented tailback with lingering injury issues in a meaningless season finale?
For the San Diego Chargers, this question becomes literal because they face a compelling conundrum on what to do with Melvin Gordon, who has missed the past two games and much of Week 14 with a hip injury.
The Chargers' ground game has stalled in the Wisconsin product's absence, while Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports Kenneth Farrow has been placed on injured reserve. Gordon is reportedly day-to-day with a lingering hip injury.
Gordon has averaged 20.1 fantasy points on DraftKings' scoring key this year, sixth-most among backs with least 10 starts this season and on par with the elite season Tennessee Titans tailback DeMarco Murray has enjoyed.
If the team wisely sits Gordon for this final game in order to get fully healthy for a big third season and with Farrow sidelined, veteran journeyman Ronnie Hillman could consume a sizable workload at reasonable pricing across both daily fantasy markets.
The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards and 4.63 yards per carry to tailbacks over the past month. The Chiefs have also allowed 9.67 yards per catch to backs since Week 12, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL over this sample.
Hillman costs $3,700 on DraftKings and ideally suited for the site's points-per-reception format.
Potential Retirements Could Fuel Intriguing Scenarios Around the NFL in Week 17
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The final game of the regular season signifies the end of many NFL careers. Most leave the league against their own volition, as roster turnover and the impending draft each spring creates natural turnover in the player pool. A select few retire by choice, and an even rarer tier of talents leave the league as legends.
The San Diego Chargers' Antonio Gates and Baltimore Ravens' Steve Smith Sr. fit the illustrious latter group, as both players could finish their storied respective careers this coming Sunday.
This isn’t merely a review of their awesome statistical feats, but rather an endorsement for both as meaningful daily fantasy values heading into these potential final starts.
Gates is one touchdown shy of tying Canton-bound tight ends Tony Gonzalez for the most in league history at the position and sixth all time in league history, per Pro Football Reference.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been solid against tight ends this season, ceding the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Yet we find Gates thriving out of the slot, per Pro Football Focus. He "grabbed 9 receptions on 13 targets (no drops) for 105 yards with six of those receptions and 85 yards coming out of the slot," this past Saturday afternoon in Cleveland.
This presents a more unique challenge, as Gates isn't lining up traditionally as a tight end, and instead is mimicking the positioning of a slot receiver on a majority of his routes. This is intriguing given the Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most yards to receivers this season.
The narrative angle is somewhat simple, as the out-of-contention Chargers could feed Gates when they make the red zone in order to challenge for Gonzo's record.
As for Smith, he's firmly fixed in the record books at seventh in receiving yards—we doubt he can net 237 yards to pass Tim Brown for sixth all time—and 12th in receptions, per Pro Football Reference.
Smith faces a Cincinnati Bengals secondary that ranked 21st in pass coverage entering Week 16, per Pro Football Focus. With some exploitable outside corners in place, Smith could enjoy a volume-driven day with coach John Harbaugh acknowledging this game is a "big deal" for the veteran wideout, per Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.
With reasonable pricing on both markets, we find Smith at $4,900 on DraftKings an $5,800 on FanDuel. In bigger tournaments, especially on DraftKings' points-per-reception model, it could be interesting to net shares of the veteran.
As for Gates, he claims rare upside at a shallow tight end position that has been eroded by injury. We can find Gates for $5,800 on FanDuel and an entirely attractive price point of $3,800 on DraftKings.
Tampa's Jacquizz Rodgers Could Earn a Heavy Workload in Week 17
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News filters through Twitter rapidly on game day in the NFL. This past Saturday afternoon, the football community learned the surprising news that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tailback Doug Martin was a heathy scratch, per the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
Martin has struggled mightily this season, particularly in the second half of the campaign, with just 2.82 yards per carry and an anemic 1.03 yards before initial contact per rush since Week 11.
Tailback Jacquizz Rodgers, meanwhile, has tallied a far more efficient 2.42 yards before initial contact per rush over this span and nearly four yards per carry over 24 rushes during this sample.
Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports offensively-inclined head coach Dirk Koetter continues to stand by his decision to feature Jacquizz Rodgers in Week 16, a move that saw Doug Martin earn the first "healthy" scratch of his career.
With Martin out of favor, if Rodgers nets another start this week against Carolina, it's interesting to consider the Panthers have ceded 4.68 yards per carry to backs and 2.54 yards before contact per rush over the past month, both above league average allowance rates.
Found at just $4,900 on DraftKings this week, Rodgers makes for a potentially rewarding option given a potentially heavy workload against a Carolina defense that has proven soft to the run with Luke Kuechly sidelined.
Data such as scrimmage touches, fantasy production, yards before contact, and pressure rates sourced from an ESPN database.
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