Fantasy Football Week 13: Thursday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

Daily fantasy football players are tasked with converting the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace. 

The NFL is always churning out meaningful updates, which we must sift through to gain an edge. With an injury afflicting Rob Gronkowski, can we trust target hog Julian Edelman this week?

With A.J. Green surely missing another week, which wideout on the Cincinnati Bengals can we trust against an exploitable Philadelphia Eagles secondary?  

We detail these scenarios and several notable trends and matchup metrics that could prove influential for the week ahead in daily fantasy football.  

Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 13, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.

San Diego's Tyrell Williams Dealing with Shoulder Injury

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The San Diego Chargers might have found a star in undrafted Western Oregon wideout Tyrell Williams. This might not be an ideal week for Williams as a fantasy asset, however, as Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports he missed practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury suffered late in Week 12.

Gehlken also notes Williams suffered a torn labrum in his senior year in college, which surely compromised his draft stock, and this injury is to the same shoulder. Williams leads the team in target share for the entire season and since Week 2 (as in the first game sans Keenan Allen) he has consumed 22.1 percent of the team's targets. 

This sizable market share has led to Williams producing the 16th-most fantasy points per game among receivers in ESPN leagues since Week 2, when he overtook Allen's role as the lead read on the passing offense. This includes two no-show outings against the stingy Denver Broncos' secondary, so for much of the season we've netted borderline WR1 numbers from Williams.

Gehlken also notes Williams is familiar with this injury, as his coach Mike McCoy suggests.

"

McCoy on Tyrell Williams' labrum injury: "This is something he's dealt with in the past." Know what he can, can't do when playing through it

— Michael Gehlken (@sdutGehlken) November 30, 2016"

The main issue is whether Williams will be available for this game against the Tampa Bay Bucs, especially with the Chargers positioned as home favorites with an impressive team point total hovering around 25.5 points, per Odds Shark. The coming days in practice will prove pivotal.

Shares of star tailback Melvin Gordon are already valuable, as he leads the NFL in red-zone touches per game and has the highest share of his team's rushing attempts and yards in the league, but we appreciate his stock even more if Williams' share is sidelined.

As for the other receivers, Dontrelle Inman leads the team in routes and leads their receivers in snaps this season. If Williams is sidelined, we'd have increased interest in him given his reasonable price points of $5,200 on DraftKings and $5,200 FanDuel.

Fantasy Fallout of Rob Gronkowski's Back Injury

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The reality of investing in the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowksi in fantasy can prove troubling, as there is no warranty and you might be on hold with customer service for a good deal of the season inquiring about his availability.

As Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald reports, Gronkowski missed practice on Wednesday with a back injury suffered in Week 12, and his prospects for this week appear murky. Howe also reports, "Gronk couldn't attend an event last night at Boston Children's Hospital due to the recommendation of Pats' medical staff."

We should approach this week assuming Gronkowski will sit, as his back has long been an issue, and a report from NBC-10's Joe Kayata after the game suggested he was truly limited in simply moving around the locker room. That said, let's appraise the offense in his absence.

Tom Brady's ceiling is clearly compromised. Look, we know his chin is still sculpted and he's a winner and what not, but there is an obvious hit to his upside with the best touchdown producer in the history of the position sidelined.

The offense already adapted last week, concentrating targets to receivers. Brady was 18-of-24 for 203 yards and two scores targeting wideouts this past Sunday, including the game-winning touchdown to Malcolm Mitchell. This marked the most completions to receivers in a game since Week 2 of 2015.  

Tournament shares of Mitchell are intriguing, but it's the volume-driven Julian Edelman that merits the most interest, as he has 28.6 percent of the team's target share since Week 5. This is third to only Julio Jones of Atlanta and Mike Evans of Tampa over this sample. 

We also saw heavy volume to the running backs in the passing game last week, suggesting Dion Lewis is a fine tournament flier given the upside of his playmaking skill set.

With the Patriots as massive home favorites in a game with a deflated point total, per Odds Shark, we might want to avoid Brady and instead consolidate interest to Edelman's high floor and Lewis' intriguing ceiling.

Sammy Watkins Experiencing Soreness in Troublesome Foot

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You might want to sit down for this, but Sammy Watkins didn't practice on Wednesday with soreness in his surgically repaired foot. We know, it's tough, but it's part of the package with Watkins given this recurrent issue. 

As Mike Rodak of ESPN reports, "Not ideal news for Bills that WR Sammy Watkins felt soreness in his foot today and did not practice. Watkins said coming out of Sunday's game he felt fine. Unclear at this point what Watkins' participation will be later this week." 

The premise was for Watkins to earn an uptick in snaps and usage after playing on 45.5 percent of the team's offensive snaps in Week 12's return to action, per Pro Football Focus. 

Watkins is among the league's best big-play threats, as evidenced by his ability to turn just three targets this past week into 80 yards, while the rest of his team produced 86 receiving yards in the game.   

The rest of this week will prove crucial for Watkins to resume practicing. If he's active, we appreciate his reasonable pricing at $5,500 on DraftKings and $6,300 on FanDuel. The Oakland Raiders, this week's opponent, have allowed the fifth-most yards per game to receivers this season, so it would be entirely inviting to deploy Watkins in tournaments if he's able to play.

A.J. Green's Absence Opens Up Value in the Bengals' Passing Game

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We never really bought into the idea that A.J. Green could return to action for the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The coaching staff, particularly Marvin Lewis, floated some speculation early this week that he could return early from his significant hamstring ailment, but early is relative to whatever timeline they've established. 

We do know Green hasn't practiced this week, per Jim Owczarski of the Cincinnati Enquirer. If we can assume he's not playing, we should then assess the team's offense for this meeting with the Philadelphia Eagles in the context of his absence.

The key beneficiary of Green's absence might just be Tyler Boyd, as the rookie wideout tied for the team lead with nine targets last week. The Pitt product could enjoy choice matchups with an exploitable Philly secondary that ranks 21st in pass coverage on Pro Football Focus and claims Jalen Mills, he of the worst grade among 120 NFL corners on PFF's index at the position.

Shares of Brandon LaFell are interesting in tournaments as well, but for cash games, Boyd is the player we'd pursue. There is also an uptick in the outcome spectrum for tight end Tyler Eifert, as he should lead the team in valuable red-zone looks and continue to prove busy between the painted numbers for Andy Dalton.

Finally, we find increased interest in tailback Jeremy Hill after the season-ending injury to Giovani Bernard. Hill was essentially a touchdown-or-bust risk in most matchups but just set career bests in targets, routes and receptions in Week 12. The consolidation of touches serves to vault Hill into a top tournament option.

Andrew Luck's Back at Practice and Has a Nice Monday Matchup

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The Indianapolis Colts' offense simply couldn't compete with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thanksgiving without Andrew Luck behind center. Thankfully, ESPN's Mike Wells reports Luck participated fully in practice on Wednesday and is expected to return from his concussion injury.

The Colts head to North Jersey on Monday night to face the New York Jets, a team that has ceded the 10th-highest passer rating and the 12th-most yards per completion to enemy arms this season. The Jets simply don't pressure the pocket often, recording a hit, hurry or sack on just 22.2 percent of opposing dropbacks, fifth lowest in the NFL.

When he hasn't been pressured this season, Luck has a passer rating of 100.2 and has completed 67.7 percent of his passes for nearly 12 yards per completion. With the Jets having trouble getting to opposing pockets, this could spell a big night for Luck. 

We're not interested in Luck in cash games given his demanding asking price, but tournament exposure is intriguing as he could light up a soft secondary in prime time given his ability to work from a clean pocket.

Chris Ivory Misses Practice with Hamstring Injury

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Chris Ivory looked decisive and elusive in Week 12 for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but this lasted only 15 snaps, per Pro Football Focus, as a hamstring injury saw his performance cut short.

Mark Long of the Associated Press reports Ivory wasn't present at practice on Wednesday, clouding his status for Week 13's meeting with a Denver defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on DraftKings' scoring model this season.

If Ivory does sit, we could see the otherwise splintered backfield workload funnel to T.J. Yeldon. Even as Yeldon has struggled once again this season to find efficiency as a rusher, he could enjoy a consolidated workload against a struggling Denver rush defense that has allowed 102.8 yards per game to opposing tailbacks—fourth most in the league.

At just $3,700 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel, Yeldon becomes a bottom-dollar bell cow if Ivory is sidelined this week.

Spencer Ware Could Dominate in the Georgia Dome on Sunday

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The Atlanta Falcons' offense gets heaps of well-earned hype, but we should talk about their immensely inept defense. For instance, did you know the Falcons have allowed 2.48 points per drive to opponents this season? That's the most in the league—even more than the Cleveland Browns!

The Falcons have allowed a touchdown on 28.6 percent of opposing drives, second most in the league and the highest rate in the NFC. Now this is where we get to the choice asset for the Kansas City Chiefs' offense this week, as Spencer Ware could feast on the Falcons' front seven on Sunday in the Georgia Dome.

The Falcons have allowed nearly 69 yards per game in the air to tailbacks, which is 68.7 percent more receiving yards per game to backs than league average allowance. Ware is among the most talented receiving backs in the league, so such a direct matchup metric is intriguing for his upside in daily fantasy. 

Reasonably priced at $6,400 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel, we consider Ware a building block against this generous Atlanta defense in Week 13.

Data such as target share, pressure rates and defensive allowance rates sourced from an ESPN database.