Fantasy Football Week 13: Tuesday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

Daily fantasy football players are tasked with converting the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace.

The NFL news cycle is always churning out meaningful updates, which we must sift through to gain an edge. The Cincinnati Bengals' Jeremy Hill, for example, saw career bests in targets and receptions in the wake of Giovani Bernard's injury this past Sunday. This changes the complexion of his projections going forward, while his pricing remains reasonable. 

We also detail several notable trends and matchup metrics that could prove influential for the week ahead in daily fantasy football. Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 13, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.

Jordan Reed Not Practicing to Start the Week

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The Washington Redskins' Jordan Reed produced another stellar highlight-filled showing on Thanksgiving, registering a season-high 10 catches with two touchdowns despite apparently suffering a significant shoulder injury.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Reed endured a "Grade 3 shoulder separation" in the loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The injury wasn't evident in his play, but per Mike Jones of the Washington Post, Reed wasn't participating in practice on Monday to start the week.

Even as he missed two games already this season with a concussion, Reed leads the Redskins in targets with 80 and a 19.4 percent share of the team's target market. An impressive catch rate of 73.8 percent and a target on a team-high 26.8 percent of his routes run supports another stellar season for the talented tight end.

Reed is currently first among all tight ends with 9.89 fantasy points per game in ESPN standard formats, so any extended absence is entirely significant. If Reed can't go this week, or in a best-case scenario is expected to be somewhat limited against the Arizona Cardinals, it could be worth targeting Vernon Davis as a daily fantasy sleeper at tight end. 

A shallow and fickle position, tight end can prove frustrating past the handful of trusted elites, so it's reasonable to stream at the position in season-long fantasy and seek out values in DFS competition. Davis posted a no-show outing in Week 11 against the Green Bay Packers, but has at least 50 yards in every other game since Week 6 in a quiet revival stretch for the former fantasy legend. 

In fact, Davis has produced 16.9 percent of Washington's receiving yardage since Week 6, third on the team and just ahead of Reed over this span. Found at $3,300 on DraftKings and $4,600 on FanDuel, if Reed can't go, Davis becomes a viable punt play with a legitimate path to production given he's sixth in fantasy points per game among tight ends in ESPN leagues since Week 6.

Stefon Diggs Returns to Practice

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Even as he's missed two games to injury this season, the Minnesota Vikings' Stefon Diggs leads the team in receptions by 19 and in yardage by nearly 200 yards. In fact, the Vikings' receiver ranks second only to Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers in receptions per game this season. 

Diggs notably returned to practice on Monday, per USA Today's Tom Pelissero. 

Diggs is also eighth in receiving yardage per game and enjoys a dominant share of his team's passing market. Just a few weeks back, Diggs became the first player in league history to produce consecutive games with at least 13 receptions, per Elias via ESPN Stats & Info.  

With what should amount to reasonable pricing and tempered ownership interest in tournaments that start on Thursday given his recent injury absence, it helps to consider the team isn't playing on a short week for this prime-time game given their Thanksgiving date in Detroit last week.

Slated to return to action this week as the high-volume chain-mover for the team's conservative passing attack, we should continue to pursue shares of Diggs in daily fantasy for this upcoming matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. The reasoning is founded in the fact Dallas leads the NFL in points per drive on offense and could propel the Vikings to keep pace with their prolific output, thus Diggs could again prove busy.

Sammy Watkins Earns Encouraging Exposure in Week 12

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The Buffalo Bills are happy to have big-play threat Sammy Watkins back in the offensive mix. Fantasy investors are similarly enthralled, as Watkins produced 100.5 fantasy points on passes thrown at least 15 yard downfield last season, 16 percent more than any other NFL player in 2015, per a study for ESPN.

Watkins' recurrent foot issues forced him off the field since Week 2 this season, but we saw him return this past Sunday in Orchard Park and immediately resume his awesome vertical production pattern. Despite missing so much time, his chemistry on deep balls was evident with signal-caller Tyrod Taylor, as they connected for three of three passing attempts, two of which were at least 15 yards past the sticks. 

Watkins had nearly as many receiving yards (80) as all other Bills players combined (86) in the game despite playing just 45 percent of the team's offense snaps in Week 12, per Pro Football Focus.

The Oakland Raiders are up next for Watkins, a team that has ceded the fourth-most receiving yards per game to wideouts. On a Buffalo offense unafraid to drive downfield attempts for Watkins, slate-shifting big-play ability is an important factor for targeting the Clemson product in tournaments.

Leveraging Recency Bias to Our Advantage with Brandin Cooks

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Mike Triplett of ESPN reports Brandin Cooks' glaring no-show with zero targets in Week 12 can be written off in some sense due to strategic and schematic shifts in the game against the Los Angeles Rams:

"When asked how Brandin Cooks ended up with zero targets on Sunday, Saints coach Sean Payton said, 'I think part of it's the result of some of the coverages. There were certainly calls with his name and number on it, and periodically once in a while that can happen.'"

Cooks is still a vital element in the New Orleans offense and in fantasy portfolios, as he has produced five games in double-digit fantasy production and in particular has proven proficient in the Superdome.

At home against the Detroit Lions in Week 13, a team that ranks 23rd in pass coverage on Pro Football Focus, it's worth noting Cooks leads the team with five touchdowns, 517 yards and 21.4 yards per reception at home this season.

It was a troubling reality for Cooks' fantasy stock to see him blanked in the box score, but it's also potentially an angle we can exploit in daily fantasy investing given the propensity for the market to experience recency bias. This means the market could prove cold for shares of Cooks this week despite his otherwise proven penchant for big-play ability, thus the bias of recency can play into his ownership percentage.

Cincinnati's Offense Proves Intriguing for DFS Investors

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Bengals coach Marvin Lewis has spent the early portion of the week talking about the potential for Cincinnati's superstar wideout A.J. Green to return early from a significant hamstring injury suffered in Week 11. 

Goeff Hobson of the team's site reported the vague positivity on Monday afternoon, while some tempered doubt emerged from reporter Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Being pragmatic, we don't expect Green to return to action this early from his hamstring injury, but his scenario is still entirely relevant since he led the entire NFL entering Week 11 with a robust 37.8 share of the team's receiving yardage. When we consider tailback Giovani Bernard was third on the team through this span with 11.6 percent of the team's receiving yardage, we realize Lewis' offense is missing 49.4 percent of its passing production (through Week 10) to injury.

The fantasy narrative began to emerge last week in the first full game sans Green and Bernard. The telling evidence is the fact Tyler Eifert tied for the team lead with nine targets and enjoyed two targets in the red zone, leading to a strong line that included 68 yards and a touchdown. Last season, Eifert led all tight ends and was second overall in the NFL with 11 red zone touchdowns.

With Green's prodigious contested catch skill set sidelined, Eifert is now an elite TE1 asset, although he's still somewhat reasonable priced on daily fantasy markets despite this likely elevation in usage with such a large share of the team's passing game on the bench. We can find Eifert for $5,300 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel, with his price on the former market entirely inviting.

The other telling trend to track from last week for the Bengals' offense was the surge in receiving exposure and opportunity for Jeremy Hill, as the bruising back enjoyed career bests in targets and receptions with six each. Targeted on a team-high 26.1 percent of his routes, Hill's floor is increasingly stable given the surge in yardage potential in the receiving phase.

Hill is priced reasonably on both markets for this upcoming game against the Philadelphia Eagles, as he's $4,300 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel. On DraftKings' full points-per-reception model, Hill is now a bankable RB2 with real upside if he can find the end zone.

Green could return this season, but it's highly unlikely this occurs this week, while we can still mine for value on this offense in the wake of his injury.

Marquess Wilson Emerging on Depleted Chicago Offense

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The Chicago Bears' Marquess Wilson produced the third-most receiving yards in the league in the league in Week 12 thanks to a rewarding rapport with quarterback Matt Barkley.

Wilson led the team with a career-best 11 targets en route to a career-high yardage performance. Wilson's nine reception are also the high mark for his professional career, while his 72.7 catch rate was by far the best on the team, as the team's reception percentage was just 51.9 percent against the Tennessee Titans this past Sunday. 

As Adam L. Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times reports in a film study of Wilson's performance, head coach John Fox is impressed with their rising receiving asset, "He’s a young player that has a good skill set. At times [Sunday] you saw that. With any young player, it’s all about consistency and that’s something we can build on really with all those guys."

With Barkley already enjoying rare chemistry with Wilson and his price still depressed in daily fantasy, it's vital to note the team's opponent this week, the San Francisco 49ers, have ceded 1.82 touchdowns per game to wideouts this season, most in the NFL by 17.4 percent. 

Taking a stab at tournament shares of Wilson, who costs $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,400 on FanDuel could again prove valuable for both differentiation and production.  

Colin Kaepernick Remains a Strong Cash Play in DFS

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The Chicago Bears are now missing both starting inside linebackers, after Jerrell Freeman was hit with a suspension and Danny Trevathan suffered a significant knee injury in Week 12.

This is relevant since the San Francisco 49ers rely so heavily on their ground game via both Carlos Hyde and most notably via the legs of Colin Kaepernick, who leads all quarterbacks in rushing production by 102 yards since assuming starting duties in Week 6.

Chip Kelly's up-tempo system has proven friendly for Kaepernick's production pattern, as he's seventh among signal-callers with 20.8 fantasy points per game since Week 6, ahead of the likes of the Atlanta Falcons' Matt Ryan and Indianapolis Colts' Andrew Luck over this span in per-game effectiveness in imaginary football.

Kaepernick could face a decimated front seven for Chicago this Sunday, an inviting reality for his fantasy prospects. We often admire rushing quarterbacks in daily fantasy play given the potential for such production to raise the floor for fantasy points each week. With a high floor and impressive ceiling in place, share of Kaepernick in cash competition prove interesting this week against a reeling opponent.

Data for this piece such as target percentages, points per drive and fantasy rates sourced from an ESPN database.