Fantasy Football Week 6: Tuesday's Daily Fantasy Market Report
It's our goal as daily fantasy football players to convert the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace.
We learn this week the Baltimore Ravens' exploitable cornerback, Shareece Wright, is likely to be active for this week's meeting with Odell Beckham Jr. and the New York Giants, per Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com. As we detail later in this piece, Wright has been generous to opponents so far this season, so a post-hype daily fantasy breakout could be due for Beckham.
We also detail several notable injuries and matchup metrics that could prove influential for the week ahead in daily fantasy football. Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 6, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.
Carson Palmer Could Return to Action in Week 6
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The Arizona Cardinals still tried to air the ball out with Drew Stanton behind center in Week 5 in place of an ailing Carson Palmer, as the team's average air yards per target of 11.96 ranked second in the league for the week. Stanton, however, was able to complete only 39.3 percent of his attempts for a lowly 4.43 yards per attempt.
Palmer, who sat out last week with a concussion, could be cleared in time to play against the visiting New York Jets, per Kent Somers of AZCentral.com. The Cardinals' vertically inclined passing game could prove potent with Palmer taking snaps.
This rings especially inviting, as the Jets have allowed the most yards per attempt in the league and have surrendered three touchdowns of at least 70 yards this season, the most through five games since the 2000 Atlanta Falcons, per Elias Sports Bureau (h/t ESPN Stats & Info).
Palmer could help fuel a fun fantasy day for the Cardinals passing game, which was essentially Larry Fitzgerald in Week 5.
Speedster John Brown, whose price has dipped to just $4,500 on DraftKings for this Monday Night Football matchup, is a particularly valuable option against this suspect secondary. Brown enjoyed 26 targets in the two games prior to a quiet Week 5.
The entire Arizona passing game appears investable if Palmer is able to play, so we'll be watching his status closely as the week of practice progresses.
Eddie Lacy's Injury Status Adds Intrigue to Week 6
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The Green Bay Packers' Eddie Lacy earned Week 5's fifth-highest rushing grade among tailbacks on Pro Football Focus despite leaving early in the third quarter with an ankle injury.
The bruising Alabama product was rumbling along for 86 yards on 12 touches against the New York Giants, but the injury saw him leave the field without returning. ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky reported the tailback is optimistic about his chances of playing in Week 6.
"I can walk on it, which is good," Lacy said. "We'll see how it is going into next week."
The daily fantasy market likely won't have much interest in James Starks and his 1.8 yards per carry if Lacy sits this game out, but as Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus shares below, the potential for Starks given an uptick in workload is intriguing.
"In the 6 games James Starks saw at least 50% of the snaps in 2015, he averaged 13.5 carries, 4.5 targets, 92 yards, 0.5 TDs, and 15.8 fPPG.
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 10, 2016"
The Dallas Cowboys are graded as the 28th-ranked rush defense on Pro Football Focus and lack size and run-stuffing talent on the interior of the front seven, so this could be a quietly choice matchup for either of Lacy or Starks depending on the former's playing status.
James White a Sneaky PPR Play in Week 6
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Even as the New England Patriots maintained a sizable lead throughout Week 5's blowout over the Cleveland Browns, we saw receiving back James White lead the team's backfield in snaps played, per Pro Football Focus.
This is a telling shift since such a position in terms of game script could indicate a purely run-heavy scheme that caters to LeGarrette Blount's early-down skill set. White's uptick in exposure led to him netting six targets—fourth-most on the team—that he turned into 63 yards on four receptions.
White was uniquely efficient last season, ranking second in fantasy points per route run among tailbacks in point-per-reception formats, per a study conducted by the author. The return of Tom Brady to the Patriots' potent offense revives White's healthy role as a key route-runner and passing target.
As for the matchup this week, the Bengals have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to tailbacks this season. With a reasonable price tag of just $4,100 on DraftKings' PPR model and $5,700 on FanDuel, we appreciate White's value on DraftKings given how his skill set matches so well with the scoring format.
Cam Newton Participates in Drills, Could Return Against Saints
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Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton took an important step toward returning from a concussion. According to the Charlotte Observer's Joseph Person, head coach Ron Rivera told ESPN's Lisa Salters the superstar signal-caller participated in "football-specific drills" Monday afternoon.
While Newton clearly sat out the team's tough loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his presence in the drills is encouraging for his status against the New Orleans Saints this week. The Saints, meanwhile, have allowed the most points per game this season and have largely proved exploitable on defense throughout the campaign.
Last season's MVP produced seven passing scores and rushed for 82 yards and a score against the Saints in two meetings in 2015. Newton is a choice fantasy asset in both season-long and daily fantasy markets this week if he's cleared to play.
New England's Logan Ryan a Cornerback to Target
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Every once in a while, a specific stat leaps out at you while browsing through the deluge of data on Twitter. One example would be the post below from Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus about New England Patriots starting cornerback Logan Ryan.
"No CB in the last 10 years has given up more than 84 catches in a single season. Logan Ryan is on pace to allow 105 #Patriots
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) October 10, 2016"
Ryan's generous and alarming allowance rate signals real upside for opposing wideouts facing the Patriots this season. The Cincinnati Bengals play the Patriots in New England this Sunday. It would be nice to see superstar wideout A.J. Green net some choice reps against Ryan; we could also see Malcolm Butler shadow Green throughout.
Either way, the upside for the Bengals passing game likely won't prove attractive on the daily fantasy marketplace this week, even as the team is opening as an eight-point road underdog, per Odds Shark. It's intriguing to consider Cincinnati's position as underdogs given the propensity for game script to tilt pass-happy when a team trails.
Could contrarian shares of Andy Dalton and, say, deflated pricing on tight end Tyler Eifert—who could make his season debut—prove profitable?
More specifically, can wideout Brandon LaFell again fly under the radar on both DraftKings and FanDuel even after a two-touchdown performance in Week 5? LaFell faces his former team this Sunday and could match up with Ryan often, so a sneaky stack of Dalton and LaFell is interesting for those seeking some daring tournament tickets.
Odell Beckham Jr. Could Finally Enjoy Breakout Game Against Baltimore
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The Baltimore Ravens' Shareece Wright ranks 99th in coverage grading on Pro Football Focus among NFL cornerbacks this season. There is a real possibility the New York Giants scheme to get Odell Beckham Jr. a sizable share of routes facing Wright in this week's cross-conference meeting with Baltimore.
Given how shaky Eli Manning and the Giants passing game looked at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers in Week 5, ownership for Beckham could prove deflated this week in daily fantasy play. There was sizable hype for the former LSU star to break out in Week 5, but he was left with just 56 yards, albeit including a garbage-time touchdown in the process.
As we see unfold so often, the breakout game for Beckham could come after the hype cycle, which helps those willing to pursue contrarian investments in the beleaguered superstar. With the chance to net valuable exposure against a fallible cornerback like Wright—who has allowed a passer rating of 130.5 when targeted this season, per Pro Football Focus—Beckham and even Manning are a sneaky stack combination as a means to differentiate from the crowd in bigger tournaments.
Identifying DFS Quarterback Values for Week 6
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"Paying down" at quarterback is just another part of the daily fantasy lexicon we likely overcomplicate in order to sound cool and smart. We're not sure if it works—the cool part of the saying, that is—but we do believe the concept of assuming a discount behind center can help us "pay up" at the more pivotal skill positions.
The premise for this investing strategy is somewhat simple, as even a cheap signal-caller on the daily fantasy market should still drop back 30 or so times to pass. Opportunity isn't nearly as compromised at quarterback given the amazing influence the position wields in a football game, thus we can often afford to consider discounts at the position, especially in tournaments when seeking differentiation.
With this concept in mind, let's consider three signal-callers worthy of our attention in Week 6.
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Smith faces a generous Oakland Raiders defense allowing the fourth-highest passer rating and second-most yards per attempt to opposing arms in the league. The Raiders have also surrendered the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season in ESPN leagues.
Smith averaged 42 rushing yards and produced two touchdowns in each of his two meetings with his division foes last season. Due for low ownership and with depressed pricing on both major DFS markets—Smith is a fine value for Week 6.
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
The San Francisco 49ers have allowed a touchdown on 6 percent of opposing dropbacks this season, the seventh-highest such rate in the league and just behind the 6.3 percent clip the Raiders are ceding.
Taylor and his Bills net a choice matchup with the 49ers in Orchard Park, New York, this Sunday. Even as Taylor doesn't have his top vertical weapon with Sammy Watkins sidelined, we still appreciate his ability to drive value with his legs and for this ripe matchup with an overmatched San Francisco defense.
Taylor is found at just $5,300 on DraftKings and a bit pricier at $7,800 on FanDuel. Shares on DraftKings are compelling against an exploitable opponent.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
While he's not a true bargain compared to the names above, Wilson's stock is depressed relative to the elite options at the position this week on both main DFS platforms. Wilson is seventh in pricing on DraftKings among quarterbacks, for example.
The matchup this week with the Atlanta Falcons is entirely enviable. Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points to enemy arms this season, and like the names above, Wilson can always add value with his legs.
If paying down for the discounts above is too dramatic for your taste in cash games this weekend, we like the more moderate approach of assuming shares of Wilson in this fertile fantasy setup against the Falcons.
Target and fantasy data for this piece sourced from an ESPN database.
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