Fantasy Football Week 16: Matt Camp's Week 16 Preview

If you’re hitting the waiver wire this late in the NFL season, you probably won’t find any true difference-makers for your fantasy football lineup. 

Who you may find are players like Dontrelle Inman. He’s been the best fantasy option of any San Diego Charger over the last month and has a good matchup in Week 16 with the Cleveland Browns. While he’s not a top-tier talent, he’s reliable enough to consider a WR3 with WR2 upside because of his matchup. 

It can be very easy to overthink decisions with your championship on the line, but barring a major injury, you shouldn’t tinker much with your lineup. Besides streaming kickers and defenses, you should have a pretty good idea of who takes up the spots for the skill positions.

Take your time gathering information about injuries, playing time, matchups, weather and any hints about game plan. My initial Week 16 rankings will debut in Wednesday’s Big Board article, but as I learn more throughout the week, updates will follow and adjustments should be made accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

If you're desperate for a quarterback, check out Matt Barkley.

Note: At this point in the season, it’s not a surprise to see almost every quarterback with any fantasy value owned in at least 50 percent of leagues. Plus, if you’ve made it this far, you know streaming quarterbacks gets much harder in the fantasy playoffs.

Waiver Wire

Matt Barkley, CHI

Percent Owned: ESPN—1.8, Yahoo—3.0 

If you survived the quarterback apocalypse of Week 15 with a streamer like Joe Flacco or Tyrod Taylor, you might be looking to the waiver wire once again for the fantasy championship. You won’t find much, but you will find Barkley. 

In four starts, he completed 89 of 147 attempts (60.5 percent) for 1082 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions. His 362 yards in Week 15 was second only to Drew Brees’ 389 yards. Barkley is strictly a volume quarterback (37 attempts per game in four starts) with a favorable matchup against the Washington Redskins. 

Week 16 Projection: 260-270 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions

The Matchup Men

As a sneak preview of my weekly rankings, these are the players who are helped or hurt by their matchups. I’ll provide additional analysis and projections in Wednesday’s Big Board.

Matchup Bumps

Jameis Winston, TB (at NO)

Derek Carr, OAK (vs. IND)

Matt Ryan, ATL (at CAR)

Kirk Cousins, WAS (at CHI)

Eli Manning, NYG (at PHI)

Philip Rivers, SD (at CLE)

Matt Barkley, CHI (vs. WAS)

Matchup Concerns

Alex Smith, KC (vs. DEN)

Trevor Siemian, DEN (at KC)

Marcus Mariota, TEN (at JAC)

Carson Palmer, ARI (at SEA)

Running Backs

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Justin Forsett needed just two games to take the lead in Denver's backfield.

Obvious Handcuffs

Dallas Cowboys: Darren McFadden (Ezekiel Elliott)

Tennessee Titans: Derrick Henry (DeMarco Murray)

Buffalo Bills: Mike Gillislee (LeSean McCoy)

Pittsburgh Steelers: DeAngelo Williams (Le’Veon Bell)

Arizona Cardinals: Andre Ellington (David Johnson)

Waiver Wire

Justin Forsett, DEN

Percent Owned: ESPN—19.3, Yahoo—19.0

Unlike what you’ll see on the wide receiver waiver wire, Forsett is part of a weak running back group heading into Week 16. The reason he can be considered is because he’s clearly overtaken Devontae Booker in the Denver Broncos backfield. Forsett carried 10 times for 37 yards and added four receptions for 16 yards on five targets while playing 55 percent of the snaps to Booker's 45 percent. 

Booker had a pair of receptions for 16 yards on four targets and just six carries for 17 yards. There’s no reason to keep Booker on your fantasy roster, and if you’re looking for a deep reach at running back in PPR formats, Forsett might be worth a look, although his ceiling is pretty low against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Week 16 Projection: 11 carries, 38 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 20 receiving yards

Paul Perkins, NYG

Percent Owned: ESPN—15.4, Yahoo—13.0

A week after both Perkins and Rashad Jennings posted identical rushing numbers (15 carries, 45 yards against the Dallas Cowboys), the two were even with 39 percent of the snaps in the New York Giants victory over the Detroit Lions. While Jennings led the way with 18 carries, he racked up 38 rushing yards compared to 56 rushing yards on 11 carries from Perkins. Neither player had a reception. 

Shane Vereen contributed two carries and two receptions, but according to head coach Ben McAdoo, he re-injured his triceps that he tore earlier in the season, so he’ll be out of the mix in Week 16, per Michael Eisen of Giants.com. That opens up some touches, which could go to Perkins as the fresher back on a short week with a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. 

Week 16 Projection: 13 carries, 52 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 24 receiving yards

The Matchup Men

Matchup Bumps

Todd Gurley, LA (vs. SF)

Carlos Hyde, SF (at LA)

Kenneth Farrow, SD (at CLE)

Justin Forsett, DEN (at KC)

Spencer Ware, KC (vs. DEN)

Matchup Concerns

Terrance West/Kenneth Dixon, BAL (at PIT)

Jeremy Hill, CIN (at HOU)

Wide Receivers

Don Juan Moore/Getty Images

A healthy Tyler Lockett is making an impact for the Seahawks.

Waiver Wire

Dontrelle Inman, SD

Percent Owned: ESPN—40.5, Yahoo—36.0

Apparently, Inman must not have enough name value, because for as productive as he’s been in the past month, his availability is much wider than I expected. Even though he didn’t score in Week 15, he still posted five receptions for 68 yards. That means he’s had at least five receptions in five of the last six games. He’s also scored in three of the last four games.

While Inman’s been safe and reliable with 11 receptions for 139 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets, Tyrell Williams has been a major bust with six receptions for 88 yards without a touchdown on 14 targets in the last two games. Remember, Williams played through a shoulder injury in the last three weeks and it’s fair to wonder if that’s the cause for his drop in fantasy production. Either way, it’s opened up the door for Inman, who should have a chance at another good outing in Cleveland.

Week 16 Projection: 6 receptions, 81 yards

Robby Anderson, NYJ

Percent Owned: ESPN—5.9, Yahoo—7.0

Anderson made my late-week waiver wire and paid off those who took a shot on him in Week 15 against the Miami Dolphins. He caught four of six targets for 80 yards, including a 40-yard touchdown. In four games started by Bryce Petty, Anderson is the team’s leading receiver with 17 receptions for 309 yards and two touchdowns on 35 targets. 

The concern for Anderson in Week 16 is the health of Petty. According to an appearance on the Michael Kay Show on ESPN NY radio, head coach Todd Bowles said “Petty’s CT scan came back negative” and that he’s “sore” but “doing better than they expected.” Without Petty, Anderson would be tough to trust against the New England Patriots, especially if the New York Jets go with Christian Hackenberg over Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

Week 16 Projection: To be determined based on Petty’s status

Cameron Meredith, CHI

Percent Owned: ESPN—23.9, Yahoo—33.0

At 3-11, the Chicago Bears are in a battle for the top pick in next year’s draft, which means evaluation mode for the Bears is clearly happening and that’s good news for Meredith in this week’s matchup with the Washington Redskins.

Meredith was on the field for 86 percent of the snaps in last week’s loss to the Green Bay Packers. He was very busy with nine receptions for 109 yards on 13 targets. It was the most targets, receptions and yards he’s had since Week 6. Meredith has 18 receptions for 243 yards and a touchdown on 25 targets in the last three games. 

Even though Alshon Jeffery was back from his suspension and in the mix with six receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown on 92 percent of the targets, it didn’t cut into Meredith's strong fantasy performance. The two should be able to coexist in a strong matchup with the reeling Washington Redskins.

Week 16 Projection: 6 receptions, 79 yards

J.J. Nelson, ARI

Percent Owned: ESPN—10.0, Yahoo—27.0

Like Anderson, Nelson also appeared in my late-week waiver wire last Friday, and like Anderson, he also came through. With 11 targets, he posted five receptions for 38 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the New Orleans Saints. He was second in snap percentage at 78 percent, compared to 59 percent for John Brown and 100 percent for Larry Fitzgerald.

Nelson’s fantasy value has hinged on the statuses of Michael Floyd, who’s now a member of the New England Patriots, and Brown, whose snaps have been limited by design. This week, his value takes a hit with a trip to Seattle to face a strong Seahawks defense.

Week 16 Projection: 4 receptions, 44 yards

Tyler Lockett, SEA

Percent Owned: ESPN—24.3, Yahoo—43.0

As I’ve said many times throughout the years, you can’t forget about injuries just because a player isn’t missing time. Lockett battled a torn PCL from early in the season but never missed a game. He was turning the corner back into fantasy relevance a couple of weeks ago but ended up with a monster game of seven receptions for 130 yards and a 57-yard touchdown on eight targets. 

That gives Lockett 16 receptions for 234 yards and a touchdown on 20 targets in the last three weeks, which is better than teammates Jimmy Graham and Jermaine Kearse during that same span. Lockett was ahead of Kearse in Week 15 snaps at 61-60 percent. 

No team has fared worse against wide receivers than the Arizona Cardinals in the last four weeks. A big part of that comes from their performance against the New Orleans Saints last week, which included 22 receptions, 314 yards and three touchdowns on 30 targets. It gives hope to Lockett’s chances of another solid fantasy outing. 

Week 16 Projection: 5 receptions, 76 yards

The Matchup Men

Matchup Bumps

Odell Beckham/Sterling Shepard, NYG (at PHI)

Mike Evans, TB (at NO)

Julian Edelman/Malcolm Mitchell, NE (vs. NYJ)

Tyler Lockett, SEA (vs. ARI)

Dontrelle Inman/Tyrell Williams, SD (at CLE)

Matchup Concerns

Jeremy Maclin, KC (vs. DEN)

Terrelle Pryor, CLE (vs. SD)

Jarvis Landry, MIA (at BUF)

Tight Ends

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Ryan Griffin and the Texans get a boost with Tom Savage under center.

Waiver Wire 

Ryan Griffin, HOU

Percent Owned: ESPN—2.8, Yahoo—2.0

The Houston Texans were without C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion) in Week 15, which vaulted Griffin into a bigger role against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Griffin caught all eight of his targets for 85 yards in a victory that saw the Texans make the switch from Brock Osweiler to Tom Savage. Six of Griffin’s eight targets/receptions came from Savage.

Head coach Bill O’Brien announced Savage will start in Week 16 against the Cincinnati Bengals, which is likely good news for Griffin and the passing game. The Bengals allowed at least five receptions to tight ends in eight of their last night games. Just keep an eye on Fiedorowicz’s status, as his return would ruin any chance of Griffin contributing for fantasy. 

Week 16 Projection: To be determined based on Fiedorowicz’s status

Hunter Henry, SD

Percent Owned: ESPN—29.5, Yahoo—20.0

Coming into Week 15, Henry had touchdowns in three of the four previous games but had no more than two receptions or 20 yards in any of those games, as he’s clearly played behind Antonio Gates in the second half of the season. In Week 15, he caught three of four targets for 37 yards and another score, his fourth in the last five games. 

Normally, I’d stay away from someone who’s been so touchdown-reliant with 10 receptions on 15 targets for 95 yards, but he does have an attractive matchup with the Cleveland Browns. They just gave up seven receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown to Charles Clay in Week 15. Henry isn’t the strongest of plays, but he’s been involved enough near the end zone and has a good matchup.

Week 16 Projection: 4 receptions, 48 yards

The Matchup Men

Matchup Bumps

Greg Olsen, CAR (vs. ATL)

Zach Ertz, PHI (vs. NYG)

Eric Ebron, DET (at DAL)

Ladarius Green, PIT (vs. BAL)

Antonio Gates/Hunter Henry, SD (at CLE)

Matchup Concerns

Jimmy Graham, SEA (vs. ARI)

Tyler Eifert, CIN (at HOU)

Defenses

Tim Warner/Getty Images

The Chargers are this week's defense to stream against the Browns.

Waiver Wire

This will typically focus on the best streaming options widely available in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues based on the matchups.

San Diego Chargers (at CLE)

Percent Owned: ESPN—36.5, Yahoo—30.0

Sticking with what works is a good strategy for picking a defense, like following the Cleveland Browns around and grabbing whatever defense they face. This week, it’s the San Diego Chargers. In their last four games, the Browns allowed 23 sacks and scored just 45 points. Robert Griffin III is in line to get another start, but any quarterback in Cleveland would be helpful to the Chargers defensive chances.

Week 16 Projection: 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 13-16 points allowed

Kickers

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Sebastian Janikowski hasn't missed a kick since Week 9.

Waiver Wire

During the season, the kickers on the rise or those entering favorable matchups with a lot of points forecasted will be featured in this section.

Sebastian Janikowski, OAK

Percent Owned: ESPN—52.7, Yahoo—29.0

I might be putting the jinx on Janikowski, but you must know he hasn’t missed a kick in the last five games. That accounts for 11 extra points and 13 field goals. He’s scored at least nine points in five of the last six games. The Oakland Raiders won't get a strong challenge from the Indianapolis Colts defense, so Janikowski might be in for another productive and hopefully perfect afternoon.

Camp's Corner

Rey Del Rio/Getty Images

Even if you don't need Cameron Meredith, pick him up.

As I discussed in the introduction, you should have a good idea of who fills out the majority of your starting lineup. You might even feel comfortable enough with your starting lineup right now and see no reason to make any changes from the squad you fielded in Week 15. That doesn’t mean you should ignore the waiver wire.

Take a look at your opponent for the week. Are they weak at wide receiver because they don’t know if A.J. Green will play now that the Cincinnati Bengals are eliminated? Could they use someone like Cameron Meredith in a good matchup with the Chicago Bears hosting the Washington Redskins? Most importantly, can you block that move by grabbing Meredith first? Do it.

Unless you’re cutting potentially useful players from your own roster to make room for players like Meredith, you’re better off grabbing any player who could help your opponent’s starting lineup. Instead of watching Tyler Lockett and the Seattle Seahawks become the latest team to embarrass the Arizona Cardinals defense on the other side of your matchup, give him a warm, harmless spot on your bench. 

You made it this far. Don’t get lazy when it matters the most. Stealing someone away from your championship competition could bring you the biggest victory of all.

Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Tuesday morning.

Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp.