Fantasy Football Week 12: Matt Camp's Week 12 Big Board

Matt CampNov 23, 2016

Short memories are important in the NFL and fantasy football.

When a quarterback throws a bad interception, he needs to forget about it and focus on the next drive. If you make a bad lineup decision or a reliable player doesn’t come through in a great matchup, let it go and don’t let those past decisions cloud your judgment.

If you started Ben Roethlisberger with confidence in a favorable matchup with the Cleveland Browns last week, the results weren’t optimal, but you can’t blame Big Ben for failing to live up to expectations when the weather wasn’t cooperating. You should be ready to fire up the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback against the Indianapolis Colts on Thanksgiving night.

The same goes for the Carolina Panthers' Greg Olsen. Sure, he’s been disappointing in recent weeks, but you must have him back out there this week when he heads to Oakland to take on the Raiders.

This is not the time to hold grudges or second-guess players who’ve done plenty more to help your fantasy team than hurt it.

Let’s take a look at my points-per-reception (PPR) rankings for Week 12. These will change throughout the week and up until Sunday’s action as we get more information about injuries and limitations, so make sure to bookmark this page.

Top 100

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Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

I present my top 100 players (minus quarterbacks) for the week as a way to help determine your flex spots. You may favor a certain position or player over another based on his role and/or your scoring rules.

As an additional tiebreaker, here are the teams I like as a whole this week based on their matchups:

Seattle Seahawks (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Miami Dolphins (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
New York Giants (at Cleveland Browns)
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Indianapolis Colts)

#	Player (team)	Matchup	Pos	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Antonio Brown (PIT)	at IND	WR1	1	0
2	Amari Cooper (OAK)	vs. CAR	WR2	7	+5
3	Le'Veon Bell (PIT)	at IND	RB1	4	+1
4	Dez Bryant (DAL)	vs. WAS	WR3	8	+4
5	David Johnson (ARI)	at ATL	RB2	5	0
6	Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)	at CLE	WR4	3	-3
7	Julio Jones (ATL)	vs. ARI	WR5	2	-5
8	Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)	vs. WAS	RB3	6	-2
9	Jordy Nelson (GB)	at PHI	WR6	11	+2
10	Jay Ajayi (MIA)	vs. SF	RB4	10	0
11	Doug Baldwin (SEA)	at TB	WR7	9	-2
12	Brandin Cooks (NO)	vs. LA	WR8	14	+2
13	DeMarco Murray (TEN)	at CHI	RB5	13	0
14	Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)	at ATL	WR9	12	-2
15	Melvin Gordon (SD)	at HOU	RB6	15	0
16	Mike Evans (TB)	vs. SEA	WR10	16	0
17	Greg Olsen (CAR)	at OAK	TE1	19	+2
18	Lamar Miller (HOU)	vs. SD	RB7	24	+6
19	Allen Robinson (JAC)	at BUF	WR11	18	-1
20	Thomas Rawls (SEA)	at TB	RB8	25	+5
21	Demaryius Thomas (DEN)	vs. KC	WR12	20	-1
22	LeSean McCoy (BUF)	vs. JAC	RB9	47	+25
23	Julian Edelman (NE)	at NYJ	WR13	21	-2
24	T.Y. Hilton (IND)	vs. PIT	WR14	26	+2
25	Michael Thomas (NO)	vs. LA	WR15	27	+2
26	Jimmy Graham (SEA)	at TB	TE2	28	+2
27	Rishard Matthews (TEN)	at CHI	WR16	33	+6
28	Spencer Ware (KC)	at DEN	RB10	31	+3
29	Jamison Crowder (WAS)	at DAL	WR17	38	+9
30	Steve Smith (BAL)	vs. CIN	WR18	43	+13
31	Frank Gore (IND)	vs. PIT	RB11	34	+3
32	Jordan Reed (WAS)	at DAL	TE3	35	+3
33	Jordan Matthews (PHI)	vs. GB	WR19	29	-4
34	Michael Crabtree (OAK)	vs. CAR	WR20	17	-17
35	Terrelle Pryor (CLE)	vs. NYG	WR21	37	+2
36	DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)	vs. SD	WR22	46	+10
37	Jarvis Landry (MIA)	vs. SF	WR23	39	+2
38	Devonta Freeman (ATL)	vs. ARI	RB12	22	-16
39	LeGarrette Blount (NE)	at NYJ	RB13	50	+11
40	Tyrell Williams (SD)	at HOU	WR24	54	+14
41	Rob Gronkowski (NE)	at NYJ	TE4	59	+18
42	Sterling Shepard (NYG)	at CLE	WR25	60	+18
43	Brandon Marshall (NYJ)	vs. NE	WR26	40	-3
44	Robert Kelley (WAS)	at DAL	RB14	48	+4
45	Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)	vs. KC	WR27	44	-1
46	Davante Adams (GB)	at PHI	WR28	42	-4
47	Matt Forte (NYJ)	vs. NE	RB15	45	-2
48	Jordan Howard (CHI)	vs. TEN	RB16	52	+4
49	Delanie Walker (TEN)	at CHI	TE5	41	-8
50	Cole Beasley (DAL)	vs. WAS	WR29	66	+16
51	DeVante Parker (MIA)	vs. SF	WR30	51	0
52	Todd Gurley (LA)	at NO	RB17	32	-20
53	Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)	at OAK	WR31	30	-23
54	Rashad Jennings (NYG)	at CLE	RB18	49	-5
55	Randall Cobb (GB)	at PHI	WR32	57	+2
56	Carlos Hyde (SF)	at MIA	RB19	53	-3
57	Eric Ebron (DET)	vs. MIN	TE6	69	+12
58	Doug Martin (TB)	vs. SEA	RB20	62	+4
59	Mike Wallace (BAL)	vs. CIN	WR33	67	+8
60	Jeremy Hill (CIN)	at BAL	RB21	77	+17
61	Tyler Boyd (CIN)	at BAL	WR34	74	+13
62	Donte Moncrief (IND)	vs. PIT	WR35	61	-1
63	Willie Snead (NO)	vs. LA	WR36	55	-8
64	Theo Riddick (DET)	vs. MIN	RB22	36	-28
65	Devontae Booker (DEN)	vs. KC	RB23	65	0
66	Tyler Eifert (CIN)	at BAL	TE7	56	-10
67	Eli Rogers (PIT)	at IND	WR37	76	+9
68	Jonathan Stewart (CAR)	at OAK	RB24	68	0
69	Pierre Garcon (WAS)	at DAL	WR38	84	+15
70	Zach Ertz (PHI)	vs. GB	TE8	83	+13
71	Latavius Murray (OAK)	vs. CAR	RB25	64	-7
72	Golden Tate (DET)	vs. MIN	WR39	58	-14
73	James Starks (GB)	at PHI	RB26	75	+2
74	Kenny Britt (LA)	at NO	WR40	73	-1
75	Wendell Smallwood (PHI)	vs. GB	RB27	71	-4
76	Tim Hightower (NO)	vs. LA	RB28	92	+16
77	Jason Witten (DAL)	vs. WAS	TE9	94	+17
78	DeSean Jackson (WAS)	at DAL	WR41	82	+4
79	Tevin Coleman (ATL)	vs. ARI	RB29	91	+12
80	Tyreek Hill (KC)	at DEN	WR42	95	+15
81	Brandon LaFell (CIN)	at BAL	WR43	85	+4
82	Antonio Gates (SD)	at HOU	TE10	86	+4
83	Marqise Lee (JAC)	at BUF	WR44	97	+14
84	Kyle Rudolph (MIN)	at DET	TE11	63	-21
85	Tajae Sharpe (TEN)	at CHI	WR45	108	+23
86	Corey Coleman (CLE)	vs. NYG	WR46	81	-5
87	Chris Ivory (JAC)	at BUF	RB30	87	0
88	Kenneth Dixon (BAL)	vs. CIN	RB31	105	+17
89	Marvin Jones (DET)	vs. MIN	WR47	80	-9
90	Terrance West (BAL)	vs. CIN	RB32	88	-2
91	Travis Kelce (KC)	at DEN	TE12	72	-19
92	James White (NE)	at NYJ	RB33	79	-13
93	Michael Floyd (ARI)	at ATL	WR48	103	+10
94	Kendall Wright (TEN)	at CHI	WR49	93	-1
95	Quincy Enunwa (NYJ)	vs. NE	WR50	96	+1
96	Gary Barnidge (CLE)	vs. NYG	TE13	114	+18
97	Dion Lewis (NE)	at NYJ	RB34	99	+2
98	Mohamed Sanu (ATL)	vs. ARI	WR51	102	+4
99	Darren Sproles (PHI)	vs. GB	RB35	90	-9
100	C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU)	vs. SD	TE14	89	-11

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ECR - Expert Consensus Rankings

Quarterbacks

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Better than Usual

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (at IND)

A matchup against the Browns is usually good news for a quarterback. Unfortunately, Roethlisberger had to battle a tougher opponent in the form of the wind last week in Cleveland. While he completed 23 of 36 attempts, he averaged just 4.64 yards per attempt and wound up with just 167 yards and no touchdowns. A heavy dosage of Le’Veon Bell was more than enough to offset Roethlisberger's underwhelming numbers.

Don’t expect a repeat of that on Thanksgiving night. Weather won’t be a factor in Lucas Oil Stadium, so Roethlisberger should be able to take advantage of a favorable matchup. No team has allowed more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks than the Colts.

Week 12 projection: 285 to 295 yards, 3 touchdowns

Concerns

Matt Ryan, ATL (vs. ARI)

Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons come off their bye week trying to get back on track following a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 10. He completed just 18 of 33 attempts for 267 yards with a touchdown and an interception. This week, the Falcons host the Arizona Cardinals. While they may be in a bit of a tailspin, their defense is still strong.

Arizona hasn’t allowed more than 225 passing yards in any of its last six games and hasn’t given up more than 266 passing yards in any game this season. They’ve held QBs to just two passing touchdowns in their last five games and only seven all season. While Ryan has played at a high level this year, this is one of his toughest tests, so expectations should be adjusted.

Week 12 projection: 245 to 250 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception

Avoid

Andy Dalton, CIN (at BAL)

A disappointing season for the Cincinnati Bengals got worse in Week 11 when A.J. Green suffered a hamstring strain and Giovani Bernard tore his ACL. According to Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer, head coach Marvin Lewis said Green is out for this week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens.

With Dalton down two primary weapons, he’d be tough to feel confident about in a good matchup, but with a trip to Baltimore on tap you’re better off looking elsewhere for a quarterback this week. The Ravens held QBs to less than 220 passing yards five times this season, including twice in their last four games. While they struggled against the Dallas Cowboys' Dak Prescott in Week 11, Dalton and the Bengals don’t pose nearly the same kind of threat.

Week 12 projection: 200 to 210 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions; 12 rushing yards

Sleepers

Carson Wentz, PHI (vs. GB)

A good way to get over a terrible team performance is to see the Green Bay Packers on the schedule and realize you can get right back on track. That’s what Wentz and the Eagles will try to do after he threw for 218 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions on 23-of-45 passing in an ugly loss to the Seahawks last week.

Green Bay looked completely lost on defense in its last two games, allowing quarterbacks to put up some big fantasy numbers as a result. Marcus Mariota posted 295 yards and four touchdowns in a big win for the Tennessee Titans in Week 10. Kirk Cousins followed that up with 375 yards and three touchdowns in a game the Washington Redskins dominated from the start. Wentz isn’t the easiest player to trust, but you can’t ignore how favorable this matchup is on Monday night.

Week 12 projection: 235 to 245 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception; 10 rushing yards

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Tom Brady (NE)	at NYJ	1	0
2	Aaron Rodgers (GB)	at PHI	3	+1
3	Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)	at IND	5	+2
4	Russell Wilson (SEA)	at TB	4	0
5	Drew Brees (NO)	vs. LA	2	-3
6	Marcus Mariota (TEN)	at CHI	6	0
7	Derek Carr (OAK)	vs. CAR	9	+2
8	Kirk Cousins (WAS)	at DAL	11	+3
9	Dak Prescott (DAL)	vs. WAS	7	-2
10	Eli Manning (NYG)	at CLE	10	0
11	Cam Newton (CAR)	at OAK	8	-3
12	Matt Ryan (ATL)	vs. ARI	12	0
13	Matthew Stafford (DET)	vs. MIN	13	0
14	Tyrod Taylor (BUF)	vs. JAC	14	0
15	Philip Rivers (SD)	at HOU	15	0
16	Carson Wentz (PHI)	vs. GB	18	+2
17	Carson Palmer (ARI)	at ATL	16	-1
18	Colin Kaepernick (SF)	at MIA	17	-1
19	Ryan Tannehill (MIA)	vs. SF	20	+1
20	Jameis Winston (TB)	vs. SEA	22	+2
21	Blake Bortles (JAC)	at BUF	21	0
22	Sam Bradford (MIN)	at DET	23	+1
23	Joe Flacco (BAL)	vs. CIN	24	+1
24	Andy Dalton (CIN)	at BAL	28	+4
25	Jared Goff (LA)	at NO	27	+2
26	Brock Osweiler (HOU)	vs. SD	25	-1
27	Scott Tolzien (IND)	vs. PIT	26	-1
28	Josh McCown (CLE)	vs. NYG	31	+3
29	Trevor Siemian (DEN)	vs. KC	29	0
30	Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ)	vs. NE	30	0
31	Alex Smith (KC)	at DEN	32	+1
32	Matt Barkley (CHI)	vs. TEN	33	+1

Running Backs

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Better than Usual

Jay Ajayi, MIA (vs. SF)

I’m surprised Ajayi is still mentioned in lineup questions since I wouldn’t have a second thought about starting him. Apparently, those questions were justified last week when he had 77 yards on 16 carries and three receptions for seven yards on four targets. It wasn’t a bad day in reality, but it was disappointing for fantasy.

There should be no questions about Ajayi’s fantasy value for Week 12 thanks to a superb matchup against the visiting 49ers. Running backs have scored the most fantasy points when facing the 49ers over the last four weeks thanks to 451 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 20 receptions, 176 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. So yes, start Ajayi.

Week 12 projection: 22 carries, 125 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown; 2 receptions, 11 receiving yards

Rashad Jennings, NYG (at CLE)

Jennings went from fantasy ghost to fantasy savior over the past two weeks. Before Week 10, Jennings failed to rush for 30 yards in any game besides Week 1. He’s gone over 80 yards the past two, including Week 11 against the Chicago Bears when he had 85 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown to go along with five receptions for 44 receiving yards on six targets.

Can Jennings go for a third straight game with a top-20 finish at his position? This week’s matchup with the Browns makes that a possibility. Over the last four weeks, running backs gashed the Browns for 561 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, plus 20 receptions for 137 receiving yards. Jennings' snaps have risen every week since he returned from injury in Week 6 and he should have another busy outing on Sunday.

Week 12 projection: 17 carries, 80 rushing yards; 3 receptions, 18 receiving yards

Concerns

Jeremy Hill, CIN (at BAL)

No longer will we have to question who’s leading the Bengals backfield on a weekly basis. Of course, that question was unfortunately cleared up when Bernard tore his ACL in Week 11, leaving Hill as the unquestioned leader for the Bengals. He’s been a mid-range RB2 for most of the season, but how much can you trust him this week in Baltimore?

While the volume should be there, it doesn’t mean Hill will have a lot of production when he meets the Ravens. They are the second-best defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs in the last four weeks. If Hill has a chance to boost his numbers, it would have to come as a receiver since the Ravens gave up six receptions to RBs in each of their last three games. Of course, that’s assuming Hill picks up some of Bernard’s lost targets. Hill has an uphill battle on Sunday.

Week 12 projection: 20 carries, 70 rushing yards; 3 receptions, 17 receiving yards

Avoid

None of note.

Sleepers

Kenneth Dixon, BAL (vs. CIN)

Since the Week 8 bye, Dixon’s snap percentage went from 29 percent to 32 percent to 38 percent last week. Meanwhile, Terrance West played 41 percent, 41 percent and 42 percent of the snaps over the same span. Neither player did much against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11. Dixon rushed for 40 yards on six carries while West had 42 yards on eight carries and a reception for 11 yards on two targets.

With Dixon’s snaps trending up, is this the week he overtakes West? It would be a good time to try considering the stagnation of Baltimore’s offense and a decent matchup with the Bengals. Over the last four weeks, Cincinnati allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to running backs. The team allowed more than 100 rushing yards to its last three opponents. If you want to take a shot on Dixon, this might be a time to try.

Week 12 projection: 9 carries, 40 yards; 4 receptions, 33 yards

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Le'Veon Bell (PIT)	at IND	1	0
2	David Johnson (ARI)	at ATL	2	0
3	Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)	vs. WAS	3	0
4	Jay Ajayi (MIA)	vs. SF	4	0
5	DeMarco Murray (TEN)	at CHI	5	0
6	Melvin Gordon (SD)	at HOU	6	0
7	Lamar Miller (HOU)	vs. SD	8	+1
8	Thomas Rawls (SEA)	at TB	9	+1
9	LeSean McCoy (BUF)	vs. JAC	15	+6
10	Spencer Ware (KC)	at DEN	11	+1
11	Frank Gore (IND)	vs. PIT	13	+2
12	Devonta Freeman (ATL)	vs. ARI	7	-5
13	LeGarrette Blount (NE)	at NYJ	19	+6
14	Robert Kelley (WAS)	at DAL	16	+2
15	Matt Forte (NYJ)	vs. NE	14	-1
16	Jordan Howard (CHI)	vs. TEN	17	+1
17	Todd Gurley (LA)	at NO	10	-7
18	Rashad Jennings (NYG)	at CLE	18	0
19	Carlos Hyde (SF)	at MIA	20	+1
20	Doug Martin (TB)	vs. SEA	21	+1
21	Jeremy Hill (CIN)	at BAL	28	+7
22	Theo Riddick (DET)	vs. MIN	12	-10
23	Devontae Booker (DEN)	vs. KC	23	0
24	Jonathan Stewart (CAR)	at OAK	24	0
25	Latavius Murray (OAK)	vs. CAR	22	-3
26	James Starks (GB)	at PHI	29	+3
27	Wendell Smallwood (PHI)	vs. GB	25	-2
28	Tim Hightower (NO)	vs. LA	34	+6
29	Tevin Coleman (ATL)	vs. ARI	33	+4
30	Chris Ivory (JAC)	at BUF	31	+1
31	Kenneth Dixon (BAL)	vs. CIN	38	+7
32	Terrance West (BAL)	vs. CIN	32	0
33	James White (NE)	at NYJ	27	-6
34	Dion Lewis (NE)	at NYJ	36	+2
35	Darren Sproles (PHI)	vs. GB	30	-5
36	Mike Gillislee (BUF)	vs. JAC	43	+7
37	Bilal Powell (NYJ)	vs. NE	42	+5
38	Duke Johnson (CLE)	vs. NYG	41	+3
39	Isaiah Crowell (CLE)	vs. NYG	39	0
40	Jerick McKinnon (MIN)	at DET	40	0
41	Matt Asiata (MIN)	at DET	37	-4
42	Paul Perkins (NYG)	at CLE	44	+2
43	Chris Thompson (WAS)	at DAL	35	-8
44	T.J. Yeldon (JAC)	at BUF	45	+1
45	Christine Michael (GB)	at PHI	62	+17
46	Dwayne Washington (DET)	vs. MIN	50	+4
47	Kapri Bibbs (DEN)	vs. KC	51	+4
48	Jeremy Langford (CHI)	vs. TEN	48	0
49	Damien Williams (MIA)	vs. SF	47	-2
50	Jalen Richard (OAK)	vs. CAR	54	+4
51	Derrick Henry (TEN)	at CHI	53	+2
52	Alfred Morris (DAL)	vs. WAS	64	+12
53	Rex Burkhead (CIN)	at BAL	46	-7
54	DeAndre Washington (OAK)	vs. CAR	63	+9
55	Akeem Hunt (HOU)	vs. SD	67	+12
56	Charcandrick West (KC)	at DEN	60	+4
57	Kenjon Barner (PHI)	vs. GB	57	0
58	DuJuan Harris (SF)	at MIA	55	-3
59	Robert Turbin (IND)	vs. PIT	66	+7
60	Alfred Blue (HOU)	vs. SD	65	+5
61	Alex Collins (SEA)	at TB	58	-3
62	Andre Ellington (ARI)	at ATL	68	+6
63	Fozzy Whittaker (CAR)	at OAK	59	-4
64	Peyton Barber (TB)	vs. SEA	71	+7
65	Benny Cunningham (LA)	at NO	52	-13
66	Shaun Draughn (SF)	at MIA	61	-5
67	Ka'Deem Carey (CHI)	vs. TEN	72	+5
68	Reggie Bush (BUF)	vs. JAC	78	+10
69	Kenyan Drake (MIA)	vs. SF	80	+11
70	Fitzgerald Toussaint (PIT)	at IND	76	+6
71	Jonathan Williams (BUF)	vs. JAC	87	+16
72	Travaris Cadet (NO)	vs. LA	86	+14
73	Ryan Mathews (PHI)	vs. GB	49	-24
74	Mark Ingram (NO)	vs. LA	26	-48

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Wide Receivers

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Better than Usual

Sterling Shepard, NYG (at CLE)

If you’ve been rolling with Shepard, he’s been a reliable fantasy option in the three games since the Week 8 bye. During last week’s win over the Bears, Shepard had a season-high 11 targets with five receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown. That’s his third straight game with a touchdown. He has at least seven targets in all but two games this season. While Shepard’s been touchdown-reliant, the target number shows his opportunities have been consistent.

That shouldn’t stop in another favorable matchup this week with the Browns. The weather helped them hold the Steelers to just 14 receptions for 107 yards, but that’s not a true representation of how much their defense has struggled this season. They allowed wide receivers to rack up at least 185 yards six times. Shepard has a good chance to stay hot.

Week 12 projection: 6 receptions, 61 yards, 1 touchdown

Concerns

T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief, IND (vs. PIT)

Andrew Luck hasn’t practiced this week because of a concussion. According to Dale Lolley of the Observer-Reporter, Hilton told him the team learned “Luck would not play against the Steelers this week in a meeting.” That would leave the Colts with Scott Tolzien under center for Thursday night’s game.

Obviously, that’s a major downgrade for the offense and bad news for those riding with Hilton and Moncrief. Both players came through with touchdowns last week in a win over the Titans and have an average matchup with the Steelers this week. Based on numbers in the last four weeks, Pittsburgh allowed the 16th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. With Tolzien under center, Hilton drops into the WR2 category and Moncrief falls to the low end of the WR3 category.

Hilton’s Week 12 projection: 6 receptions, 80 yards

Moncrief’s Week 12 projection: 5 receptions, 67 yards

Avoid

Marvin Jones, DET (vs. MIN)

Jones’ name value might be keeping him on fantasy rosters, but he’s taken a long fall from the WR1 status he had over the first month of the season. He has one catch in each of the last two games and hasn’t had at least five receptions in a game since Week 4. With the Detroit Lions at full strength in both their backfield and receiving corps, Jones has become the odd man out.

This week, he faces the Minnesota Vikings for the second time in three games. In Week 9, they held him to one reception for five yards on five targets. Over the last four weeks, they limited wide receivers to the fifth-fewest fantasy points. Jones isn’t worth using and can be dropped.

Week 12 projection: 2 receptions, 26 yards

Sleepers

DeVante Parker, MIA (vs. SF)

While Ajayi received a lot of the attention for the turnaround in Miami, his presence helped open up the passing attack in recent weeks. Parker’s been a prime beneficiary of that with five receptions for 103 yards in San Diego in Week 10 and eight receptions for 79 yards and the game-winning touchdown last week in Los Angeles. That’s 18 targets for Parker in the last two games after 18 targets in the previous four games.

The Dolphins take on another West Coast team this week, but they get to do so in Miami. With the San Francisco 49ers visiting, the Dolphins have their pick of how they want to attack this game. That’s because the 49ers allowed the most fantasy points to running backs and the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last four weeks. If they keep it simple, Ajayi should carry the offense, but Parker should still get his opportunities against a vulnerable secondary.

Week 12 projection: 6 receptions, 79 yards

Eli Rogers, PIT (at IND)

Rogers gets another week in the sleeper category despite what happened last week in a windy victory over the Browns. He caught four of his six targets for 20 yards, as the Steelers needed to adjust their offense because of the weather. Still, Rogers was second in wide receiver snaps at 65 percent, which put him back ahead of Cobi Hamilton (62 percent) and way ahead of Sammie Coates (1 percent).

So why does he have a chance to bounce back to fantasy relevance this week? He gets to face the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium, so besides no concerns with weather, the Colts allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers in the last four weeks. Wide receivers have at least 200 yards against the Colts in each of their last three games. Rogers is worth another shot with more factors in his favor this week.

Week 12 projection: 5 receptions, 65 yards

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Antonio Brown (PIT)	at IND	1	0
2	Amari Cooper (OAK)	vs. CAR	4	+2
3	Dez Bryant (DAL)	vs. WAS	5	+2
4	Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)	at CLE	3	-1
5	Julio Jones (ATL)	vs. ARI	2	-3
6	Jordy Nelson (GB)	at PHI	7	+1
7	Doug Baldwin (SEA)	at TB	6	-1
8	Brandin Cooks (NO)	vs. LA	9	+1
9	Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)	at ATL	8	-1
10	Mike Evans (TB)	vs. SEA	10	0
11	Allen Robinson (JAC)	at BUF	14	+3
12	Demaryius Thomas (DEN)	vs. KC	15	+3
13	Julian Edelman (NE)	at NYJ	13	0
14	T.Y. Hilton (IND)	vs. PIT	19	+5
15	Michael Thomas (NO)	vs. LA	18	+3
16	Rishard Matthews (TEN)	at CHI	20	+4
17	Jamison Crowder (WAS)	at DAL	23	+6
18	Steve Smith (BAL)	vs. CIN	26	+8
19	Jordan Matthews (PHI)	vs. GB	17	-2
20	Michael Crabtree (OAK)	vs. CAR	12	-8
21	Terrelle Pryor (CLE)	vs. NYG	22	+1
22	DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)	vs. SD	28	+6
23	Jarvis Landry (MIA)	vs. SF	21	-2
24	Tyrell Williams (SD)	at HOU	31	+7
25	Sterling Shepard (NYG)	at CLE	33	+8
26	Brandon Marshall (NYJ)	vs. NE	27	+1
27	Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)	vs. KC	24	-3
28	Davante Adams (GB)	at PHI	25	-3
29	Cole Beasley (DAL)	vs. WAS	36	+7
30	DeVante Parker (MIA)	vs. SF	29	0
31	Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)	at OAK	16	-15
32	Randall Cobb (GB)	at PHI	32	0
33	Mike Wallace (BAL)	vs. CIN	37	+4
34	Tyler Boyd (CIN)	at BAL	39	+5
35	Donte Moncrief (IND)	vs. PIT	35	0
36	Willie Snead (NO)	vs. LA	30	-6
37	Eli Rogers (PIT)	at IND	41	+4
38	Pierre Garcon (WAS)	at DAL	46	+8
39	Golden Tate (DET)	vs. MIN	34	-5
40	Kenny Britt (LA)	at NO	40	0
41	DeSean Jackson (WAS)	at DAL	42	+1
42	Tyreek Hill (KC)	at DEN	49	+7
43	Brandon LaFell (CIN)	at BAL	44	+1
44	Marqise Lee (JAC)	at BUF	48	+4
45	Tajae Sharpe (TEN)	at CHI	54	+9
46	Corey Coleman (CLE)	vs. NYG	45	-1
47	Marvin Jones (DET)	vs. MIN	43	-4
48	Michael Floyd (ARI)	at ATL	53	+5
49	Kendall Wright (TEN)	at CHI	47	-2
50	Quincy Enunwa (NYJ)	vs. NE	51	+1
51	Mohamed Sanu (ATL)	vs. ARI	52	+1
52	Adam Thielen (MIN)	at DET	50	-2
53	Tyler Lockett (SEA)	at TB	57	+4
54	Dorial Green-Beckham (PHI)	vs. GB	65	+11
55	Travis Benjamin (SD)	at HOU	55	0
56	John Brown (ARI)	at ATL	60	+4
57	Tavon Austin (LA)	at NO	59	+2
58	Malcolm Mitchell (NE)	at NYJ	62	+4
59	Eddie Royal (CHI)	vs. TEN	56	-3
60	Anquan Boldin (DET)	vs. MIN	74	+14
61	Cameron Meredith (CHI)	vs. TEN	38	-23
62	Will Fuller (HOU)	vs. SD	58	-4
63	J.J. Nelson (ARI)	at ATL	82	+19
64	Brian Quick (LA)	at NO	66	+2
65	Kenny Stills (MIA)	vs. SF	67	+2
66	Ted Ginn (CAR)	at OAK	71	+5
67	Marquise Goodwin (BUF)	vs. JAC	63	-4
68	Ty Montgomery (GB)	at PHI	75	+7
69	Taylor Gabriel (ATL)	vs. ARI	70	+1
70	Allen Hurns (JAC)	at BUF	72	+2
71	Dontrelle Inman (SD)	at HOU	69	-2
72	Chris Hogan (NE)	at NYJ	73	+1
73	Jeremy Kerley (SF)	at MIA	68	-5
74	Seth Roberts (OAK)	vs. CAR	95	+21
75	Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN)	at DET	76	+1
76	Braxton Miller (HOU)	vs. SD	78	+2
77	Adam Humphries (TB)	vs. SEA	77	0
78	Jermaine Kearse (SEA)	at TB	85	+7
79	Phillip Dorsett (IND)	vs. PIT	80	+1
80	Terrance Williams (DAL)	vs. WAS	91	+11
81	Sammie Coates (PIT)	at IND	79	-2
82	Devin Funchess (CAR)	at OAK	90	+8
83	Robby Anderson (NYJ)	vs. NE	83	0
84	Quinton Patton (SF)	at MIA	87	+3
85	Jalin Marshall (NYJ)	vs. NE	94	+9
86	Breshad Perriman (BAL)	vs. CIN	86	0
87	Albert Wilson (KC)	at DEN	89	+2
88	Victor Cruz (NYG)	at CLE	88	0
89	Danny Amendola (NE)	at NYJ	93	+4
90	Cecil Shorts (TB)	vs. SEA	98	+8
91	Cobi Hamilton (PIT)	at IND	106	+15
92	Percy Harvin (BUF)	vs. JAC	92	0
93	Stefon Diggs (MIN)	at DET	11	-82
94	Torrey Smith (SF)	at MIA	84	-10
95	Jeremy Maclin (KC)	at DEN	64	-31
96	Robert Woods (BUF)	vs. JAC	61	-35
97	Sammy Watkins (BUF)	vs. JAC	97	0

Tight Ends

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Better than Usual

Jason Witten, DAL (vs. WAS)

Witten and the Cowboys had a tough matchup with the Ravens in Week 11. They came away with the victory, although Witten didn’t have a great fantasy performance. He caught five of his seven targets for 37 yards and couldn’t bring in an end-zone target for what would have been a touchdown. He’ll have a good chance to get back on track on Thursday afternoon against the visiting Redskins.

While Washington held him to three receptions for 51 yards on four targets in Week 2, that was only the second start for Prescott, although it was also the first of nine straight victories. The Redskins have struggled against tight ends as of late. In the last month, only the Buffalo Bills allowed more fantasy points per game to the position. Last week, the Packers' Jared Cook racked up six receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown against Washington in his first game since Week 3.

Witten could be a key factor in this game with the matchup on his side and a more seasoned Prescott under center.

Week 12 projection: 6 receptions, 58 yards, 1 touchdown

Concerns

Tyler Eifert, CIN (at BAL)

Much like teammate Jeremy Hill, Eifert’s value to the Bengals became a lot more important due to the injuries suffered by Bernard and Green. Eifert didn’t help out much last week with three receptions for 37 yards on six targets. He has just six receptions on 11 targets over his last two games.

With the Bengals in dire straits, it could be a tough week for the team to ask more of Eifert with a battle in Baltimore coming Sunday. Over their last four games, the Ravens limited opposing tight ends to 13 receptions for 101 yards. As a whole, the Ravens have a very good defense and Eifert could draw more attention as the top target in Cincinnati’s offense. It won’t be easy for Eifert to post solid numbers.

Week 12 projection: 5 receptions, 52 yards

Avoid

Coby Fleener, NO (vs. LA)

Last week, Fleener had a favorable matchup with the Carolina Panthers and managed just three receptions for 17 yards on five targets, but he salvaged his fantasy production with a touchdown. He’s failed to record five receptions or 50 yards in eight of 10 games this season and has scored just three times.

That’s part of the reason it’s tough to have confidence in him coming through this week against the Los Angeles Rams. While the Rams haven’t faced many stiff tests in the last five weeks with matchups against the Dolphins, New York Jets, Panthers and Giants, they held that group to 15 receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown. Fleener hasn’t been reliable enough to use with confidence against a solid defense.

Week 12 projection: 3 receptions, 36 yards

Sleepers

Gary Barnidge, CLE (vs. NYG)

Surprisingly, it took Barnidge until last week for his first trip to the end zone this season. Unfortunately, it was the only bright spot of a rough month for Barnidge, as he failed top three receptions or 42 yards in any of his last four games. The unpredictability of Cleveland’s quarterback position hasn’t helped, but he’ll have the best option, Josh McCown, out there on Sunday when the Giants visit Cleveland.

Before he broke his foot last week, Zach Miller got the Giants for three receptions, 61 yards and a touchdown. They’ve been a bottom-five defense against fantasy tight ends over the last four weeks, so this is a good chance for Barnidge to connect with McCown and be a solid fantasy contributor. New York’s cornerbacks could make life difficult for Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman, so Barnidge may end up being the most accessible option for McCown.

Week 12 projection: 5 receptions, 50 yards

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Greg Olsen (CAR)	at OAK	1	0
2	Jimmy Graham (SEA)	at TB	2	0
3	Jordan Reed (WAS)	at DAL	3	0
4	Rob Gronkowski (NE)	at NYJ	6	+2
5	Delanie Walker (TEN)	at CHI	4	-1
6	Eric Ebron (DET)	vs. MIN	9	+3
7	Tyler Eifert (CIN)	at BAL	5	-2
8	Zach Ertz (PHI)	vs. GB	10	+2
9	Jason Witten (DAL)	vs. WAS	11	+2
10	Antonio Gates (SD)	at HOU	12	+2
11	Kyle Rudolph (MIN)	at DET	7	-4
12	Travis Kelce (KC)	at DEN	8	-4
13	Gary Barnidge (CLE)	vs. NYG	15	+2
14	C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU)	vs. SD	13	-1
15	Jared Cook (GB)	at PHI	21	+6
16	Vance McDonald (SF)	at MIA	20	+4
17	Martellus Bennett (NE)	at NYJ	14	-3
18	Cameron Brate (TB)	vs. SEA	16	-2
19	Ladarius Green (PIT)	at IND	29	+10
20	Hunter Henry (SD)	at HOU	28	+8
21	Julius Thomas (JAC)	at BUF	22	+1
22	Coby Fleener (NO)	vs. LA	18	-4
23	Will Tye (NYG)	at CLE	17	-6
24	Dennis Pitta (BAL)	vs. CIN	25	+1
25	Lance Kendricks (LA)	at NO	19	-6
26	Jack Doyle (IND)	vs. PIT	23	-3
27	Charles Clay (BUF)	vs. JAC	24	-3
28	Austin Hooper (ATL)	vs. ARI	27	-1
29	Virgil Green (DEN)	vs. KC	26	-3
30	Vernon Davis (WAS)	at DAL	30	0
31	Jesse James (PIT)	at IND	31	0
32	Dwayne Allen (IND)	vs. PIT	35	+3
33	Clive Walford (OAK)	vs. CAR	32	-1

Defenses

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Best Options Based on Matchups

Buffalo Bills (vs. JAC)

It’s not always easy to get excited about your fantasy defense, but it helps when Blake Bortles is the opponent. The Bills are lucky enough to host Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. In the last four weeks, Jacksonville allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to defenses thanks to six sacks, four interceptions, six lost fumbles and two touchdowns. Bortles is the gift that keeps on giving…to the defense.

Week 12 projection: 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 15 to 18 points allowed

New York Giants (at CLE)

The Giants have been an average fantasy defense this season and enter Week 12 ranked 15th in total fantasy points. They’ll have a great chance to improve on their standing when they visit the Browns on Sunday afternoon. In the last four weeks, the Browns gave up 17 sacks, including eight to the Steelers in Week 11. They’ve scored a total of 26 points in their last three games. It’s easy to see why they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to defenses in the last month.

Week 12 projection: 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 14 to 17 points allowed

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Buffalo Bills (BUF)	vs. JAC	1	0
2	New York Giants (NYG)	at CLE	2	0
3	Miami Dolphins (MIA)	vs. SF	3	0
4	Denver Broncos (DEN)	vs. KC	6	+2
5	Seattle Seahawks (SEA)	at TB	4	-1
6	Kansas City Chiefs (KC)	at DEN	7	+1
7	Atlanta Falcons (ATL)	vs. ARI	21	+14
8	New England Patriots (NE)	at NYJ	5	-3
9	Tennessee Titans (TEN)	at CHI	8	-1
10	Baltimore Ravens (BAL)	vs. CIN	9	-1
11	Minnesota Vikings (MIN)	at DET	10	-1
12	Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT)	at IND	12	0
13	Houston Texans (HOU)	vs. SD	15	+2
14	Detroit Lions (DET)	vs. MIN	11	-3
15	Arizona Cardinals (ARI)	at ATL	14	-1
16	Philadelphia Eagles (PHI)	vs. GB	13	-3
17	San Diego Chargers (SD)	at HOU	16	-1
18	Oakland Raiders (OAK)	vs. CAR	17	-1
19	New Orleans Saints (NO)	vs. LA	18	-1
20	Cincinnati Bengals (CIN)	at BAL	20	0

Kickers

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Best Option Widely Available on the Waiver Wire

Josh Lambo, SD

When it comes to kickers, even the good ones don’t stick on fantasy rosters during a bye week. That’s why it’s a great time to check the waiver wire after a good kicker like Lambo is coming off a bye, so you can upgrade that spot in your starting lineup. For the season, Lambo is tied for fifth with 29 extra points and is sixth in total fantasy points thanks to 21 field goals on 23 attempts.

#	Player (team)	Matchup	ECR™	vs. ECR
1	Dan Bailey (DAL)	vs. WAS	1	0
2	Justin Tucker (BAL)	vs. CIN	4	+2
3	Stephen Gostkowski (NE)	at NYJ	2	-1
4	Stephen Hauschka (SEA)	at TB	5	+1
5	Matt Bryant (ATL)	vs. ARI	3	-2
6	Adam Vinatieri (IND)	vs. PIT	6	0
7	Caleb Sturgis (PHI)	vs. GB	7	0
8	Will Lutz (NO)	vs. LA	10	+2
9	Brandon McManus (DEN)	vs. KC	8	-1
10	Dustin Hopkins (WAS)	at DAL	13	+3
11	Cairo Santos (KC)	at DEN	9	-2
12	Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)	vs. CAR	11	-1
13	Josh Lambo (SD)	at HOU	12	-1
14	Mason Crosby (GB)	at PHI	16	+2
15	Robbie Gould (NYG)	at CLE	15	0
16	Graham Gano (CAR)	at OAK	14	-2
17	Andrew Franks (MIA)	vs. SF	17	0
18	Dan Carpenter (BUF)	vs. JAC	18	0
19	Chris Boswell (PIT)	at IND	19	0
20	Ryan Succop (TEN)	at CHI	21	+1