Fantasy Football Week 4: Thursday's Daily Fantasy Market Report
The NFL news cycle is constantly churning out meaningful information for fantasy investors. Even seemingly minor updates can be leveraged into actionable decisions for daily fantasy purposes.
For example, minor blurbs about a shoulder ailment for the New York Jets' Eric Decker started hitting social media and fantasy sites early Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday night, the tone of reporting proved more ominous. Now Decker's situation appears a bit more serious than first thought, according to ESPN's Rich Cimini.
We can consider the ramifications for this development and how daily fantasy gamers might want to approach the Jets' offense. For example, loading up on discounted shares of Quincy Enunwa, who stands to gain a valuable increase in targets.
In this piece we discuss backfield value on the main DFS markets this week, in addition to some notable defensive commodities and a surging deep-threat receiver we can target in tournaments.
Join us for this DFS primer as we delve into a number of noteworthy trends and prepare for another exciting week of fantasy football action.
Carlos Hyde Poised for Another Big Fantasy Outing
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We deemed the San Francisco 49ers' Carlos Hyde a breakout candidate back in August. His promise was rooted in the potential to earn a massive share of touches and snaps in Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense.
The results so far have matched the hype. Hyde is on pace for over 300 carries and leads the league in red-zone touches with 16 on the season so far. The Ohio State product has converted four of those valuable totes into touchdowns (tied for the league lead), helping propel his RB1 production through the first three weeks of the season.
Despite his rising red-zone appeal and the sheer volume-driven production pattern, we can find Hyde at a significant discount on DraftKings for Week 4's choice matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Hyde costs just $4,200 on DraftKings' market for this week, while he's a bit pricier, but still palatable at $6,800 on FanDuel.
The Cowboys have ceded 3.31 yards before contact per rush to opposing running backs this season, the most in the NFL and well above the league average allowance of 2.35. This rate indicates tailbacks are building serious momentum before the Dallas defense can even touch them, a solid sign for Hyde's upside, as he led the NFL in the rate of forced missed tackles per touch last season, per Pro Football Focus.
With the expectation for nearly 20 total touches and a rewarding role as the team's goal-line back, Hyde presents real value for Week 4.
Backfield Bargains Found in the Lions vs. Bears Game
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Running back can be a frustrating and fickle position for season-long leagues, seen in the rash of injuries we've already witnessed. The isolated nature of each week in daily fantasy football removes a good deal of the sting, instead creating value.
For example, the Detroit Lions' Ameer Abdullah flashed major fantasy promise early this season, but he has since been placed on injured reserve. The Chicago Bears' Jeremy Langford appeared set for a workhorse role, yet a severely sprained ankle could sideline him for four-to-six weeks, per ESPN.
While season-long investors need to scramble on the waiver wire for replenishment, the daily fantasy crowd can simply turn to discounted shares of the respective rising assets on each team's backfield depth chart. For example, the Lions' Dwayne Washington could feast on valuable early-down touches, and the Bears' Jordan Howard could become a productive workhorse.
As the division rivals meet this week, we see value in each backfield. Washington costs just $3,800 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel. He could prove productive and profitable against a Chicago defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards (365) and four touchdowns to opposing tailbacks this season.
As for Howard, he could truly feast against a Lions front ceding 5.31 yards per carry to opposing backs. That's the most in the league, and it includes a susceptible rate of 3.11 yards before contact per rush, the second most in the league. Howard costs just $3,700 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel.
Howard is the more bankable option given he could consume a rich share of both rushes and receptions out of the Chicago backfield. It makes him a viable play in both cash and tournament competition for DFS.
With Washington, his stake in Detroit is isolated to early-down work. Still, that should include goal-line touches, so he's identified as a tournament commodity given the lower production floor.
Shares of both backs could prove helpful for spending up at receiver and even quarterback this week. We even appreciate Theo Riddick's stock, especially on DraftKings' point-per-reception scoring key, as the Lions' backfield offers real promise in this plus matchup.
Dez Bryant Reported to Have Hairline Knee Fracture
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Just as the Dallas Cowboys' Dez Bryant was developing a real rapport with rookie signal-caller Dak Prescott, we've learned he suffered a potentially serious knee injury in the team's Week 3 win over the reeling Chicago Bears.
According to Ed Werder of ESPN, Bryant sustained a hairline fracture in his right knee, which typically requires one-to-three weeks of recovery time.
Jene Bramel of Football Guys is a respected fantasy analyst as well as a licensed physician who often offers his professional opinion on player injuries. In the case of Bryant, Bramel believes the "risk equation" has shifted with his knee injury.
On one hand, it's a positive sign that Bryant was able to play through the injury and prove productive last week, potentially indicating the placement of the fracture isn’t as ominous as is commonly found with such an injury. Yet the team might still want to prove cautious as to not exacerbate the current ailment.
We still don't know if Bryant will suit up this week, but we're wholly avoiding him in daily fantasy play and we even advise caution in season-long competition. The risk of limited snaps or re-injury simply isn't advisable for DFS investors.
In the wake of that news, it appears cheap shares of Cole Beasley—who costs just $3,900 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel—prove intriguing in Bryant's absence. Consider that Beasley actually leads Dallas in targets and is on pace for 106 catches on the season. While he likely won't hit this lofty mark, we do believe he can sustain the pace if Bryant is sidelined.
For some context, Beasley has netted a reception on a whopping 27 percent of routes run this season, compared to Bryant's rate of 10.9 percent. This is driven by the fact that Beasley is a high-percentage, short-yardage threat, with his average target traveling just 7.6 yards downfield to Bryant's 13.7. That said, Beasley is fine value for DraftKings' point-per-reception scoring model and even a nice streaming asset in seasonal leagues.
Arizona's John Brown Offers Affordable Upside
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The Arizona Cardinals' John Brown ranked seventh in the NFL last season in air yards per target with a rich rate of 14.8. This indicates a valuable vertical role—he's far downfield on his average target, which leads to, you guessed it, lots of yards per catch.
Brown's rewarding rate of 15.4 yards per catch last season was driven by his air yards per target, as the Cardinals' vertical passing game is ideally suited for his skill set.
Brown has been off to a slow start this season, but he's led the team with 15.9 air yards-per-target. He finally saw a significant share of the passing game in Week 3, with 11 targets in the loss to the Buffalo Bills.
This week, the Cardinals take on the Los Angeles Rams, who have surrendered the eighth-most yards to receivers and an above average completion rate (64 percent) to the position. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just tallied over 400 yards in the air against the Rams, and the Cardinals are poised for a breakout game in the passing phase given the sheer talent and aforementioned verticality their offense offers.
Brown is notably discounted in daily fantasy given his slow start, as he's just $4,300 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel. As an elite speedster found in the 96th percentile of the 40-yard dash among positional prospects, per MockDraftable, Brown could take the top off the Rams' suspect secondary several times this Sunday, en route to a profitable showing for his investors.
Stacking the San Diego Offense Appears Wise
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You might want to sit down for this news:
The New Orleans Saints are not good at playing defense in 2016.
We know, it's shocking, but the early indicators suggest it's true. The Saints rank 31st in both points and yardage allowed per game, per ESPN.
The San Diego Chargers rank seventh in the NFL with 2.35 points scored per drive, while the Saints have ceded 2.65 per opposing drive, the fourth-highest rate in the league. With the Chargers playing host to the generous Saints' defense this week, we like the idea of stacking their offense—which means getting multiple Chargers players on your daily fantasy lineups—for Week 4.
We can start with getting signal-caller Philip Rivers in the lineup, as he's clearly the driving force for the passing game after leading the NFL in pass attempts last season. Stacking Rivers with receivers Tyrell Williams, who has led the team in targets since Week 2, or Travis Benjamin, who could provide multiple big plays, could prove profitable. We prefer Williams given he's significantly cheaper to acquire in DFS competition this week.
We even dig shares of tight end Hunter Henry if Antonio Gates is ruled out with a lingering hamstring ailment. Henry was second on the team in targets in Week 3 while blocking on just 11 percent of his passing snaps en route to a strong showing. Henry is priced right around the pricing floor on both DraftKings and FanDuel this Sunday.
The key participant to target would be tailback Melvin Gordon, who has consolidated valuable shares of early-down touches and receiving work in the wake of Danny Woodhead's injury. Gordon could reach 20 touches and feast on a soft Saints front that allowed the Atlanta backfield to run for 217 yards in Week 3.
In a game with the highest implied point total of the slate, per Odds Shark, multiple shares of the favored Chargers is a truly inviting play for DFS this week.
The Arizona Cardinals Are Among the Top DFS Defenses in Week 4
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The picture above shows the tail end of one of the greatest interceptions you'll ever see, as Cardinals' elite cornerback Patrick Peterson hauled in a one-handed pick against the Bills this past Sunday. In a video highlight courtesy of the NFL, you can watch and rewatch the insane athleticism and ball skills this football feat requires.
We mention this superb play to highlight the Cardinals' plethora of defensive playmakers. Peterson is joined by the likes of Tyrann Mathieu and Chandler Jones to form a potential-laden defense. They could shine at home against a feeble Rams' offense this Sunday afternoon.
While Arizona is the most expensive fantasy defense on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week, we advise paying up in cash games for the rare combination of high floor and ceiling they provide in this plus home matchup. We understand seeking diversification in tournaments, so we detail some other picks below, but we're not fading this chalk option given the inviting blend of talent and matchup metrics.
As for some other defensive groups for Week 4, how about the Washington Redskins hosting the Cleveland Browns? The Redskins have some talent in the secondary and a key pass-rush talent in Ryan Kerrigan, boosting their value as they face a raw rookie quarterback in Cody Kessler.
Even in the wake of J.J. Watt's serious back injury, we find upside in the Houston Texans' defense as they host the mistake-prone Tennessee Titans. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has struggled with ball security this season, while the team ranks 24th in passing yardage and 23rd in passer rating.
Do you have a sleeper defense you're targeting this week? Feel free to share your bold calls in the comments below.
Information such as routes, targets, air yards and defensive run stats for this article sourced from an ESPN database.
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