Fantasy Football Week 4: Tuesday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

Tuesday is essentially the Monday of the NFL week. Which is to say, we recover from the week that was and begin to look ahead at the coming week on Tuesdays during the NFL campaign.

If Week 2 was defined by chaos at the tailback position, Week 3 saw a number of new names emerge at the position. We'll focus on these rising running backs in this daily fantasy primer, such as the Chicago Bears' Jordan Howard and the emergence of Christine Michael for the Seattle Seahawks.

Another key narrative from the week that was would be the emergence of the Detroit Lions' Marvin Jones as a top receiving option, as he's second among receivers in fantasy points per game on both DraftKings and FanDuel through three games. We'll touch on Jones and other top DFS values for Week 4.

Join us in canvassing the league for the meaningful news as it applies to the daily fantasy football marketplace for Week 4.

With Jeremy Langford Ailing, Chicago's Jordan Howard Is on the Rise

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ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Monday night that Chicago Bears tailback Jeremy Langford is expected to miss up to six weeks with a serious ankle injury. 

This opens up significant opportunity for rookie rusher Jordan Howard, who earned a good deal of praise as a prospect from Bleacher Report this past spring:

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Howard is an easy, natural runner with next-level instincts. He reads his keys in the blocking game and finds small inside lanes. He spots cutback lanes and will get small to slip through cracks in the line. Once he finds daylight, Howard has the burst to pick up plus yardage.

When approached by a defender, Howard dishes out punishment. He will drop his pads to run over the tackler head-up on his frame and use a timely stiff-arm maneuver in space when angle tacklers come at him. Howard will churn his legs and push through contact. He's a true high-motor runner who gives effort after contact.

"

Howard is an interior bruiser who ranked fourth in rushing grading on College Football Focus among draft-eligible backs last season at Indiana. As a physical specimen, Howard landed in the 88th percentile in weight and in the 78th percentile in broad jump—often viewed as a telling explosion metric for the position—among positional draft prospects since 1999, per Mock Draftable.

Priced at just $3,700 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel for Week 4, it's worth noting his opponent this week, the Detroit Lions, rank 31st in the league in allowing 5.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Slotting Howard in at running back at a discounted rate opens allows you to pay up at receiver without sacrificing upside.

Mystery Still Surrounds Jamaal Charles' Availability

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"He's getting closer here," Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said. "I'm probably being overly cautious. There's a chance he's out there this week. We'll see how it goes."

The above quote is from Reid talking to reporters early this week about the availability of Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs' Week 4 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, per ESPN's Adam Teicher.

Very definitive stuff, Andy. 

The intriguing part about Charles potentially returning would be his deflated stock on DraftKings, as he's just $5,400 on that marketplace this week, compared to $7,000 on FanDuel. Since they have different budget caps, let's share that Charles consumes 10.8 percent of your budget on DraftKings and 11.6 percent on FanDuel. This isn't an insignificant margin, so we do like him more on DraftKings this week. 

Then again, this is all speculative based on his availability. What we also like about his potential return is the matchup with a banged-up Pittsburgh Steelers front seven potentially missing linebacker Lawrence Timmons while Ryan Shazier deals with a knee ailment. The Steelers rank 30th in fantasy point allowance on DraftKings' model, thus Charles is an interesting tournament play even if we can expect a limited workload upon his return.

Shares of Spencer Ware aren't nearly as attractive if Charles does return this week, though we wouldn't blame you for tempering expectations until we see how Charles is used upon his return. Either way, it will be nice to see the ultra-efficient superstar on the gridiron again soon.

Kelvin Benjamin Among Top Bounce-Back Candidates for Week 4

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While most stat services list Carolina Panthers receiver Kelvin Benjamin with zero targets in Week 3, our own tape review reveals he was actually targeted once in the team's drubbing at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. We know, it's so much more encouraging in that light.

But really, it was a glaring no-show from the red-zone maven, as Benjamin disappeared from the game plan in Week 3. That was mostly because Cam Newton was under duress the majority of the time, as he was sacked a career-high eight times in the loss.

According to Max Henson of the team's site, Carolina's offensive coordinator Mike Shula will look to get his massive target more attention in the matchup with the Atlanta Falcons, "Yeah, we've got to find a way to get him the ball more. That starts with me."

Our interest in Benjamin is mostly due to recency bias, which is to say the daily fantasy market usually avoids a player coming off such a bad game, especially when the words "zero" and "targets" are placed in conjunction.

Benjamin remains a top target of Newton's and is the team's top threat in contested catch scenarios, such as in traffic in the end zone. Contrarian shares of Benjamin could prove helpful for differentiation in tournaments this week.

As for another key bounce-back candidate, how about the Houston Texans' Lamar Miller? The team's top tailback is consuming a dominant market share of the team's rushing offense, as he's netted 77.1 percent of the Texans' rushing attempts on the season.

With a healthy rate of 2.4 yards before contact per rush, there is evidence brewing that a breakout game is on the way. Much like Benjamin, shares of Miller could prove contrarian this week.

Touchdown Machine Tyler Eifert Back at Practice

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Cincinnati Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert hauled in 13 touchdowns in 13 games last season in an epic breakout campaign that saw him rank third among tight ends in fantasy points per game in ESPN leagues.

The Bengals offense has proven inconsistent in the passing phase this season, as Andy Dalton is 31st among signal-callers, with a touchdown on just 1.7 percent of his passing attempts this season. Last year, with the help of Eifert's red-zone prowess, Dalton ranked fourth in the league with a touchdown on 6.5 percent of his attempts.

Ready for the good news? Despite missing the start of the season with a lingering ankle ailment after offseason surgery, Eifert is nearing a return to action, as Katherine Terrell of ESPN reported he's back to running routes and will resume practice on a limited basis.

For season-long leagues, we suggest proactively adding Eifert in any formats he's available or lofting soft trade offers for him. If he plays this week, the Miami Dolphins aren't a formidable foe, as they just allowed Gary Barnidge to get untracked for the Cleveland Browns and have allowed above-league-average rates in touchdowns, receptions and yards to the tight end position since the start of last season.

In daily fantasy, it's unclear if Eifert will be active this week. But if he is, we don't mind upside shares in tournaments, given the aforementioned touchdown rapport with Dalton.

The Chargers' Hunter Henry Is a Top Tight End Play in Week 4

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Some say age is but a number. In football—and honestly in most physical pursuits—it's a number that helps indicate what stage of physical decline one might be in. The San Diego Chargers' Antonio Gates was born in 1980, well before the vast majority of his competitive peers, especially at a skill position in the NFL.

Injuries and the erosion of athleticism catch up to nearly every aging NFL veteran at some point, and in Gates' case, the progression of decline is really starting to show.

The fantasy legend has delivered just 35 yards on 49 routes this season and is now facing a multi-game absence with a lingering hamstring ailment. The San Diego Union-Tribune's Michael Gehlken reports Gates isn't likely to suit up for this week's choice meeting with a soft New Orleans Saints defense, as the tweet below reveals.

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Hunter Henry played all 59 offensive snaps Sunday. Expect another large workload versus Saints. Antonio Gates wasn't close to facing Colts.

— Michael Gehlken (@sdutGehlken) September 26, 2016"

Enter Hunter Henry, a talented rookie "go" tight end who won't spend too much energy blocking, as he was second on the team in routes run in Week 3 and finished with the second-most yards and caught all five of his targets in the loss to the Indianapolis Colts this past Sunday.

Henry can be found for just $2,700 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel this week and is owned in just 12 percent of ESPN leagues for the season-long crowd. We advise spending down at tight end this week with Henry, allowing for more allocation to receivers and top tailbacks in the process.

Seattle's Christine Michael Set to Thrive in Thomas Rawls' Absence

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The fantasy outlook for the Seattle Seahawks' Thomas Rawls isn't so encouraging, as John Boyle of the team's site relayed comments from head coach Pete Carroll revealing news about his status for the next several weeks.

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They were able to find a little something in there in the evaluations today that wasn’t clear a week ago, but it makes sense for how uncomfortable he was feeling. He’s got a little crack there that we just have to take care of and wait it out a little bit. He’s not going to be incapacitated by it at all, he’ll be able to move around and all that kind of stuff, but we just have to be careful and get him through a few more weeks before we can get him back out.

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A "little crack" doesn't sound so good for the leg of a running back, and some reports suggest Rawls could miss up to six weeks with the ailment. This opens the door wide for rising rusher Christine Michael, who ranked sixth in fantasy points among running backs in Week 3.

Michael doesn't net the best matchup this week, with the New York Jets' stout front allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, but we do at least like that he's consuming the lion's share of meaningful backfield touches and has the sole claim to goal-line duties.

Shares of Michael and his high-ceiling potential are intriguing in daily fantasy this week and going forward. As for another upside play on the Seahawks offense, tight end Jimmy Graham was targeted on a team-high 39.1 percent of his routes in Week 3 en route to a stellar fantasy showing in the win over the San Francisco 49ers.

Graham is just $4,000 on DraftKings and is ideal at that price on the reception-friendly point-per-reception format, while he's not as easy to invest in on FanDuel, given his $6,400 tag.

We'll want to watch the status of signal-caller Russell Wilson before investing in either of Michael or Graham, but the above report from Boyle suggests he's on track to play against the Jets on Sunday after suffering a knee injury in Week 3.

What Is Going on with the Atlanta Falcons' Hot Offense?

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The Atlanta Falcons are off to an undeniably hot start, as they lead the league with 34.7 points per game and 448 total yards per game.

You'd think fantasy investors in Julio Jones would be chipper, given the success the team is enjoying, but he hauled in just one of seven targets in Week 3 and looked like a decoy for much of the contest. Jones didn't record that lone reception until midway into the third quarter of the team's win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night.

Is it time to panic or simply ride it out? You are right in assuming we'll advise patience with the ultra-talented wideout. Jones has caught just half his targets this season, but big-play potential is always there for a talented receiver with his rare combination of size and speed.

It could be wise to avoid Jones in cash games in daily fantasy play this week, given he's a top-priced asset on both main fantasy markets, but tournament shares still prove intriguing against the Carolina Panthers' duo of rookie cornerbacks.

As for the backfield breakdown in Atlanta, the Monday shootout in the Superdome saw Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman tie for the highest fantasy output at the position in ESPN leagues. We can't say we can remember a single game where two tailbacks on the same roster led the league in fantasy production at the position.

We don't expect this shares success to sustain, but we do find it revealing that Coleman dominated the goal-line workload en route to three rushing scores and Freeman exploded for 207 yards from scrimmage.

Freeman is the better back in our opinion and is more investable in cash games, but the usage for Coleman opens up legitimate value as a tournament play in DFS. The workload breakdown will be riveting to see unfold against the Panthers this Sunday afternoon in Atlanta.

An Early Look at Savvy Daily Fantasy Investments for Week 4

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With an eye on finding some of the top values on the daily fantasy market this week, let's take an initial look at the pricing on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 4.

At receiver, it's tough to fade the Detroit Lions' Marvin Jones as he leads the NFL in yardage and ranks second in the league in yards per route among receivers, per Pro Football Focus.

Even as his price rises, Jones is still underpriced at just $7,300 on DraftKings' point-per-reception scoring model, placing him 11th among wideouts for the week. On FanDuel, Jones is an even better buy, as the 14th receiver in pricing at $7,600 (notable, given you get $60,000 to spend on FanDuel as opposed to $50,000 on DraftKings).

The Chicago Bears' suspect secondary is a choice setup for Jones, given his rapport with signal-caller Matthew Stafford. Stacking (as in rostering both) Stafford and Jones is an ideal plan this week.

If you can get into tournaments that include the Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars game in London this Sunday morning, we love shares of wideout T.Y. Hilton, who is on pace to blow his career target haul out of the water and is coming off a week in which he regularly burnt one of the best cover corners in the league in the San Diego Chargers' Jason Verrett.

Hilton could feast on the Jags in Wembley Stadium this Sunday and is reasonably priced on both markets.

We've already covered our interest in the Chicago Bears' Jordan Howard this week at tailback, but how about pairing him with discounted shares of the Detroit Lions' Dwayne Washington in tournaments?

There is inherent risk, given Washington is a complementary back, but as the key goal-line back for Detroit found at cheap pricing on both markets, he could produce a surprisingly big fantasy line against the Bears, a team that has ceded the fourth-most rushing yards to backs this year.

As for some savvy signal-caller options we can save on, let's look to the Cincinnati Bengals' Andy Dalton in a get-right spot against the soft Miami Dolphins defense that just made the Cleveland Browns' patchwork passing game look respectable.

We also dig discounted shares of the Arizona Cardinals' Carson Palmer, who is set to bounce back at home against the L.A. Rams' fallible pass defense that just ceded over 400 yards to the Tampa Bay Bucs' Jameis Winston this past Sunday.

Advanced metrics like target and route data sourced from an ESPN database for this article.