Fantasy Football: PPR Studs to Target in 2016 Drafts

Point-per-reception leagues have grown in popularity over the years, enough so that every major content platform provides specific rankings to accommodate the scoring format. For those new to fantasy football, the concept is as simple as it sounds—as players are awarded one point per reception.

Some complain that PPR scoring has ruined the purity of an online hobby that focuses on imaginary collections of real football players. Most managers enjoy augmenting the fantasy football experience and keeping current with how NFL offenses are moving the ball. If the three-pointer is all the rage in the NBA, then the forward pass has comparably risen in the NFL. 

With an eye on catering to the PPR scoring platform, join us as we discuss several players at each skill position poised to thrive in PPR formats in 2016.

We've undoubtedly witnessed a shift in the fantasy football marketplace over the past several seasons. In a league that continues to trend pass-heavy, fantasy investors are recognizing the value of hoarding receptions in the early rounds, as draft trends this season reveal that wideouts make up 12 of the top 20 picks on average in point-per-reception formats (PPR), per Fantasy Pros.

This isn't to say running backs aren't still valuable, but rather how we appraise them should shift when playing in PPR leagues. With only seven NFL running backs netting as many as 1,000 rushing yards last season, reliance on receiving production is becoming paramount in all fantasy formats—especially in those that reward receptions.

In fact, six of the top 10 fantasy leaders among running backs in ESPN PPR scoring last season failed to top 1,000 yards on the ground. The Chargers' Danny Woodhead accrued just 336 rushing yards and finished third among backs in PPR scoring in 2015. 

In this piece, we aim to identify five players to target in PPR leagues for the upcoming campaign. 

Theo Riddick Is Undervalued and Poised to Thrive in PPR Leagues

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No team has targeted their tailbacks more in the passing game over the past two seasons than the Detroit Lions. This past season, they allocated 168 targets to their backfield—second only to the Eagles' 178—while completing an impressive 80.4 percent of such attempts for a rich average of 7.24 yards per target (good for fourth in the NFL last season). 

The key beneficiary of this trend has been receiving maven Theo Riddick, who turned 99 targets last season into 80 receptions and 167 fantasy points in PPR leagues. In standard scoring formats, Riddick finished 38th in fantasy scoring among running backs. In PPR formats, he was 19th among backs, according to ESPN. 

Coach Jim Caldwell's offenses have rarely boasted prolific ground attacks, as his offensive philosophy seems to pursue the efficiency of short passes out of the backfield. Riddick led all backs with at least 20 targets last season with a reception on 27.7 percent of his routes, which is to say he's the workhorse of Caldwell's unique passing agenda. 

Investors aren't buying that Riddick can repeat last season's top-20 finish at the position, as he's currently going 38th on average among backs in PPR drafts, according to Fantasy Pros. 

ESPN's Lions' beat scribe Michael Rothstein, however, envisions Riddick's rich receiving role enduring into 2016: 

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He’s likely to siphon some targets and receptions from Calvin Johnson’s retirement (although not as many as you might think). He’s also Matthew Stafford’s safety valve in the two-minute offense, where he has done a lot of his work in the past. If the Lions are trailing in games, Riddick becomes even more valuable because he’s on the field a ton. Consider, too, that after Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator, Riddick had five or more receptions in five of nine games. 

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You can reasonably land Riddick as your third running back with a roster build that loads up on receivers in the earlier rounds. Riddick doesn't boast a high ceiling with the potential to score 10 touchdowns, but his high weekly floor can help sustain steady success for those seeking bankable production at an entirely reasonable price tag.

Play it safe with Riddick and then load up on lottery ticket backs like the Raiders' DeAndre Washington in the later rounds. 

The Titans' Delanie Walker Could Be a Top-2 Tight End in PPR Leagues

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No signal-caller averaged more targets per game to tight ends than the Titans' Marcus Mariota (10.75) last season. The team's top tight end, Delanie Walker, finished third in fantasy points per game in PPR leagues in 2015 thanks to such steady attention. 

Only Washington's Jordan Reed, with a robust rate of 29.3 percent, averaged a higher rate targets per route run than Walker's 28.5 percent clip among tight ends with at least 50 targets last season. Mariota, meanwhile, enjoyed the league's fifth-best QBR (91.5) when targeting tight ends and 28th when targeting running backs and wideouts (61.2). The ingredients for continued volume and efficiency between Mariota and Walker are present.

Positional peers Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce are going ahead of him on average in PPR drafts, per Fantasy Pros, as Walker is going fifth at the position, despite Walker consuming a far more impressive market share of his respective offense. 

Walker was targeted 14 times in the red zone, seventh most among tight ends last season, but only netted four touchdowns in the process. He did, however, boast the highest catch rate among all tight ends with at least six such targets with an elite 85.7 percent reception rate.

This means that Walker converted 28.5 percent of his red zone looks into touchdowns last season. If he can simply reach the league average on such targets to tight ends (33 percent last season), we could see him produce at a fantasy rate second only to the peerless Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots. 

The Titans' suspect receiving corps and smashmouth running agenda should see Walker again lead the team in targets, with a potential uptick in touchdown production offering elite upside for a player ideally suited for PPR scoring. 

The Patriots' Dion Lewis Offers Immense Upside as a Receiving Back

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The main questions for Dion Lewis' fantasy value in 2016 focus on his availability and durability, as he's just nine months removed from an ACL injury. There is little question, however, as to his ability to produce in the Patriots' fantasy-friendly scheme. Lewis was fifth among backs in fantasy points per game in ESPN PPR formats last season before bowing out with injury. 

Tom Brady enjoyed a 79.2 QBR targeting tailbacks last season, the highest clip in the league, all while the Pats threw the sixth-most passes to backs in 2015. Mike Reiss, the longtime team beat writer for ESPN, believes Lewis can exceed 65 receptions and produce another efficient season for New England. 

The Pats haven't added significant talent to the running back depth chart this offseason and negotiated a new contract with Lewis in the midst of his breakout campaign last season, evidence he could indeed continue as the team's dynamic producer from the backfield.

For those interested in deflated shares of Lewis, we suggest taking the risk on him at a discount and insuring him with James White, who hauled in 40 receptions and appears to have secured understudy duties for the valuable passing work.

Even if Lewis isn't ready to start the season, he provides week-winning upside rarely found in a receiving back, and he is worthy of investment for those willing to platoon him with White in that case.

Bilal Powell Could Earn Meaningful Snaps for the Jets

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You might not have been aware of this, but the Jets' Bilal Powell was fifth in fantasy points per game in ESPN PPR leagues over the final six games of the season. From Week 11 on, the Louisville product averaged a robust 15.3 fantasy points per game thanks to 5.3 receptions and 50 receiving yards per game over this stretch. 

Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has long been a proponent of getting his backs in space via the passing phase, as evidenced by the Jets ranking ninth in targets to tailbacks last season. While the Jets imported veteran back and noted receiving maven Matt Forte this season, it's worth noting they also gave Powell a new pact in the process. 

Notably, ESPN's Jets reporter Rich Cimini envisions Powell earning meaningful snaps and touches this season: 

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Powell has fantasy value because he's not your typical No. 2 back. He will play a lot on third down, and he will see some time in the base offense, spelling Forte. He has [been] impressive in training camp and looked quicker than last year, according to coach Todd Bowles. Powell, perhaps the most underrated player on the team, could be a late-round gem, especially if Forte's hamstring problem lingers.

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You can land Powell significantly late into drafts, as he's going as the 42nd running back off the board on average in PPR drafts, per Fantasy Pros. Talk of a share for snaps and touches with Forte has cropped up all offseason from beat writers covering the Jets, offering Powell flex appeal off the bat and real potential to enter the starting fantasy discussion if Forte, a player with a massive workload over his career, were to miss any time. 

Detroit's Golden Tate Could Thrive in the Wake of Calvin Johnson

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Would you believe that Matthew Stafford has produced a higher QB rating targeting Golden Tate (99.5) than Calvin Johnson (95.7) over the past two seasons? You probably do know now that we told you that, but it's remarkable and indicative of the rare efficiency Stafford has enjoyed in targeting Tate since 2014. 

Continuing on the narrative of extreme efficiency, Tate is 22nd in targets per game (8.4) among NFL wideouts since 2014, yet ninth in receptions per game (5.9), thanks in large part to hauling in 70.3 percent of his targets over this span. 

Even with Calvin Johnson—who famously retired this offseason—on the field for the vast majority of a dominant 2014 effort, Tate tallied 15.6 fantasy points per game in ESPN PPR formats, good for 14th at the position and just ahead of the likes of A.J. Green and Kelvin Benjamin that season. Which is to say, Tate has already flirted with WR1 production thanks to producing 189 catches over the past two seasons, fifth most in football. 

The rise of free-agent acquisition Marvin Jones is notable in that he's earning heaps of hype and buzz as the season approaches thanks to a strong rapport with Stafford in camp, as noted by Michael Rothstein of ESPN. That said, Stafford already has an awesome connection with Tate to rely on, and there is plenty of the passing pie to divvy up now that Calvin Johnson and his massive target share are off the field. 

For those wondering where the TD production might come from, consider Tate caught more touchdowns in nine games with offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter last season than in total during his epic 2014 season.

Designed targets in the red zone on high-percentage routes could spell an uptick in scoring production for Tate, who can already attain WR1 status in PPR formats with pedestrian touchdown rates (as we saw two seasons ago). 

Tate is coming off the board as WR21 in PPR formats, but claims the rare and coveted combination of a high floor and impressive ceiling as the lead target for the Lions this season. 

Target, QBR, route and fantasy data used for this article all compiled using information from an ESPN database.