Fantasy Football 2016: Examining Preseason Mock Draft and Cheat Sheet

The first round of fantasy football drafts continues to change every season. 

It wasn't long ago that the first round was dominated by running backs. Loading up on ball-carriers early was common practice and wide receiver was considered a position that could be found later in drafts. 

That's not the case anymore. A quick look at the latest average draft position numbers tell a much different story. According to the composite ADP numbers from FantasyPros, of the first 12 picks in a draft, seven will be either a wide receiver or Rob Gronkowski. 

That's a key trend to know heading into the draft as more and more players are opting to go with extreme draft plans like zero RB, which entails owners saving running back for later while stocking up on multiple top receivers. 

Finding value requires having a hierarchy of players at each position and seeing where you can scoop up a player later with a great chance to outperform where he was drafted at. 

With that being said, here's a look at each of the skill positions' top 15 players: 

Rank	QB	RB	WR	TE
1	Aaron Rodgers, GB	Todd Gurley, LA	Julio Jones, ATL	Rob Gronkowski, NE
2	Cam Newton, CAR	Jamaal Charles, KC	Antonio Brown, PIT	Jordan Reed, WAS
3	Russell Wilson, SEA	Lamar Miller, HOU	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	Greg Olsen, CAR
4	Andrew Luck, IND	Adrian Peterson, MIN	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	Travis Kelce, KC
5	Drew Brees, NO	David Johnson, ARI	Dez Bryant, DAL	Coby Fleener, NO
6	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	Ezekiel Elliott, DAL	Jordy Nelson, GB	Delanie Walker, TEN
7	Carson Palmer, ARI	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	A.J. Green, CIN	Tyler Eifert, CIN
8	Tom Brady, NE	Devonta Freeman, ATL	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	Gary Barnidge, CLE
9	Blake Bortles, JAC	Mark Ingram, NO	Allen Robinson, JAC	Jason Witten, DAL
10	Tyrod Taylor, BUF	Eddie Lacy, GB	Keenan Allen, SD	Antonio Gates, SD
11	Andy Dalton, CIN	LeSean McCoy, BUF	T.Y. Hilton, IND	Jimmy Graham, SEA
12	Philip Rivers, SD	Doug Martin, TB	Mike Evans, TB	Ladarius Green, PIT
13	Eli Manning, NYG	Thomas Rawls, SEA	Brandon Marshall, NYJ	Zach Ertz, PHI
14	Matthew Stafford, DET	Matt Forte, NYJ	Sammy Watkins, BUF	Julius Thomas, JAC
15	Kirk Cousins, WAS	Jeremy Langford, CHI	Brandin Cooks, NO	Dwayne Allen, IND

Obviously there's some tiering that needs to be involved. For instance, all that separated Julio Jones and Antonio Brown last season were two touchdowns from Brown. Jones could outscore Brown on a weekly basis. Both are elite fantasy wide receiver options. 

Here's a look at a simulated mock draft using composite ADP numbers. Note, the rankings above do not impact the mock draft. The mock draft is a reflection of FantasyPros' composite average draft position across six different sites:

Pick	Player	Position	Team
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Round 4
Round 5
Round 6
Round 7
Round 8
Round 9
Round 10
1.01	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT
1.02	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	NYG
1.03	Todd Gurley	RB	LA
1.04	Julio Jones	WR	ATL
1.05	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN
1.06	David Johnson	RB	ARI
1.07	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	DAL
1.08	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU
1.09	Rob Gronkowski	TE	NE
1.10	Le'Veon Bell	RB	PIT
1.11	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL
1.12	A.J. Green	WR	CIN
2.01	Lamar Miller	RB	HOU
2.02	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL
2.03	Allen Robinson	WR	JAC
2.04	Jamaal Charles	RB	KC
2.05	Jordy Nelson	WR	GB
2.06	Brandon Marshall	WR	NYJ
2.07	Doug Martin	RB	TB
2.08	Alshon Jeffery	WR	CHI
2.09	Eddie Lacy	RB	GB
2.10	Cam Newton	QB	CAR
2.11	Mark Ingram	RB	NO
2.12	Mike Evans	WR	TB
3.01	Amari Cooper	WR	OAK
3.02	LeSean McCoy	RB	BUF
3.03	Brandin Cooks	WR	NO
3.04	Keenan Allen	WR	SD
3.05	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB
3.06	Sammy Watkins	WR	BUF
3.07	Thomas Rawls	RB	SEA
3.08	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN
3.09	T.Y. Hilton	WR	IND
3.10	C.J. Anderson	RB	DEN
3.11	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	CAR
3.12	Matt Forte	RB	NYJ
4.01	Carlos Hyde	RB	SF
4.02	Jordan Reed	TE	WAS
4.03	Randall Cobb	WR	GB
4.04	Julian Edelman	WR	NE
4.05	Latavius Murray	RB	OAK
4.06	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA
4.07	Andrew Luck	QB	IND
4.08	Greg Olsen	TE	CAR
4.09	DeMarco Murray	RB	TEN
4.10	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA
4.11	Jeremy Hill	RB	CIN
4.12	Jarvis Landry	WR	MIA
5.01	Jonathan Stewart	RB	CAR
5.02	Jeremy Maclin	WR	KC
5.03	Golden Tate	WR	DET
5.04	Eric Decker	WR	NYJ
5.05	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT
5.06	Drew Brees	QB	NO
5.07	Ryan Mathews	RB	PHI
5.08	Dion Lewis	RB	NE
5.09	Matt Jones	RB	WAS
5.10	Michael Floyd	WR	ARI
5.11	Jeremy Langford	RB	CHI
5.12	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI
6.01	Travis Kelce	TE	KC
6.02	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	DEN
6.03	Tyler Eifert	TE	CIN
6.04	Delanie Walker	TE	TEN
6.05	Allen Hurns	WR	JAC
6.06	Carson Palmer	QB	ARI
6.07	Jordan Matthews	WR	PHI
6.08	Melvin Gordon	RB	SD
6.09	DeVante Parker	WR	MIA
6.10	Blake Bortles	QB	JAC
6.11	John Brown	WR	ARI
6.12	Donte Moncrief	WR	IND
7.01	Coby Fleener	TE	NO
7.02	Tom Brady	QB	NE
7.03	Frank Gore	RB	IND
7.04	Duke Johnson	RB	CLE
7.05	Ameer Abdullah	RB	DET
7.06	Chris Ivory	RB	JAC
7.07	Jay Ajayi	RB	MIA
7.08	Giovani Bernard	RB	CIN
7.09	DeSean Jackson	WR	WAS
7.10	DeAngelo Williams	RB	PIT
7.11	Arian Foster	RB	MIA
7.12	Kevin White	WR	CHI
8.01	Danny Woodhead	RB	SD
8.02	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA
8.03	Eli Manning	QB	NYG
8.04	Gary Barnidge	TE	CLE
8.05	Denver Broncos	DST	DEN
8.06	T.J. Yeldon	RB	JAC
8.07	Seattle Seahawks	DST	SEA
8.08	Michael Crabtree	WR	OAK
8.09	Justin Forsett	RB	BAL
8.10	Sterling Shepard	WR	NYG
8.11	Marvin Jones	WR	DET
8.12	Rashad Jennings	RB	NYG
9.01	Ladarius Green	TE	PIT
9.02	Zach Ertz	TE	PHI
9.03	Derrick Henry	RB	TEN
9.04	Julius Thomas	TE	JAC
9.05	Carolina Panthers	DST	CAR
9.06	Tony Romo	QB	DAL
9.07	Philip Rivers	QB	SD
9.08	Arizona Cardinals	DST	ARI
9.09	Corey Coleman	WR	CLE
9.10	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN
9.11	Derek Carr	QB	OAK
9.12	Steve Smith	WR	BAL
10.01	Josh Gordon	WR	CLE
10.02	Jimmy Graham	TE	SEA
10.03	LeGarrette Blount	RB	NE
10.04	Karlos Williams	RB	BUF
10.05	Markus Wheaton	WR	PIT
10.06	Stephen Gostkowski	K	NE
10.07	Kirk Cousins	QB	WAS
10.08	Charles Sims	RB	TB
10.09	Willie Snead	WR	NO
10.10	Dorial Green-Beckham	WR	TEN
10.11	Isaiah Crowell	RB	CLE
10.12	Antonio Gates	TE	SD

Looking at the current ADP for some of the options getting ready to play this season, there are some mid-round players who are well worth their price. They might not all pan out, but a fantasy football draft is about securing as many lottery tickets as you can. 

Here's a look at a few players who should be targeted in your draft at their current price. 

Jeremy Langford, RB, CHI

ADP: 58.2

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

When looking at who to target in the middle rounds, opportunity is essential. 

Simply put, a player in line for more carries and targets is likely to outscore a more talented player stuck in a situation where they aren't getting the ball. 

Using that criteria, Jeremy Langford is a good deal for the price. The second-year running back has an average draft position of 58.2, but is as cheap as 82 in Yahoo leagues. 

Langford quietly flashed the potential to be a feature back in his rookie season. He played behind Matt Forte and still wound up getting 170 touches, including 22 receptions, on the season. What's even more encouraging is that when he was called upon to be the featured back, he responded with starter-worthy games as a fantasy player:

Game	Opp	Rush	Rec	Total Yards	TD	Standard Points	PPR Points
8	SD	18	3	142	1	22.2*	25.2
9	STL	20	7	182	2	30.2	37.2
15	TB	19	0	83	0	8.3	8.3

Now Langford is projected to be the full-time starter after Forte left for the New York Jets' greener pastures.

There's a reason Langford is priced where he is, though. He was somewhat inefficient in his role as Forte's relief, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry last season. 

He'll face some competition for carries, too. The Bears showed some signs of faith in Langford by letting Forte walk, but they also selected Jordan Howard in the fifth round of this year's draft. However, he is listed fourth on an unofficial depth chart that Kevin Fishbain of Pro Football Weekly passed along:

Ka'Deem Carey appears to be the only real threat for carries at this point, and while that may be cause for reservation, he only saw 46 touches last season. 

If you intend to load up on wide receiver early, Langford is an ideal mid-round running back to add to your roster. 

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET

ADP: 146.3

Its always a good play to wait on a quarterback in the draft. Although quarterback play is up-and-down overall, it's one position that doesn't actually suffer from much volatility. 

For instance, if you pass on quarterbacks until the 10th or 11th round, you can still wind up with a team's starter, and unless he plays for Cleveland, he'll likely be the starter throughout the season barring injury. 

If you choose to go that route, Matthew Stafford should be on your radar. 

As Bleacher Report's Matt Camp points out in the video above, Stafford finished last year incredibly strong under offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. In Weeks 9-17, Stafford was the QB3 in terms of points per game. 

Only Carolina's Cam Newton and Seattle's Russell Wilson averaged more points per game. Yet, Stafford can still be had in the 12th round in most drafts. That's an incredible value. 

The offensive line is a legitimate concern, though. The Lions gave up 44 sacks last season and ranked 22nd in pass protection, per Football Outsiders. However, the Green Bay Packers offensive line is right behind them at 23 and it doesn't seem to impact Aaron Rodgers' ADP. 

Pass protection has been a focus for the Lions since Cooter took over at midseason last year. He believes that simplifying the protections will give his team the opportunity to keep Stafford upright more often this season, per Kyle Meinke of MLive:

"

If you had a high number of things to do, it's hard to do every one of those things extremely well. As you lower that number, you should do each one of those things better, and that's what we went about doing. It really wasn't that drastic — there were a couple protections that I or the quarterback didn't like, or was just not needed. Maybe we liked it, but it just wasn't needed, and we needed to lessen the load a little bit.

"

The loss of Calvin Johnson hurts, but the Lions have addressed his departure with the addition of Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin. They obviously can't replace Megatron, but the cupboard is certainly not bare for Stafford. 

Let others swing for the fences on quarterbacks early while you add more receivers and running backs before nabbing an eventual top-10 quarterback in the later rounds in Stafford. 

Kamar Aiken, WR, BAL

ADP: 140.7

Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

According to Team Rankings, the Baltimore Ravens ran the fifth-highest percentage of pass plays last season. That shouldn't come as a surprise, as their three-year average places them sixth in the league.

You can argue Joe Flacco's eliteness all day, or you can just acknowledge that someone is going to profit from all of that passing volume and it might as well be you. 

The Ravens are likely to have to chuck it again this season. The running back committee has some potential if Justin Forsett can have a bounce-back season, but, overall, the Ravens project to be rather mediocre. Pro Football Focus projects an 8-8 season, which corresponds with the team's win total prop bet at Odds Shark of eight wins on the season. 

With a defense that ranked 20th in DVOA last season, per Football Outsiders, that means oddsmakers and prognosticators are expecting the Ravens offense to at least be serviceable, which means someone has to catch all those passes. 

For fantasy owners, Kamar Aiken might be the guy to own out of the receiving corps. 

Steve Smith is the top-drafted Ravens receiver right now. He's 36 and coming off a season in which he played just seven games. Aiken is next at an average pick of 140.7. After that comes Breshad Perriman and Mike Wallace 10 and 36 picks later, respectively. 

Of those players, Perriman still hasn't played a down in the NFL due to injury, and Wallace finished with 39 catches, 473 yards and two touchdowns in Minnesota last season. 

Someone is going to emerge as fantasy-relevant receiver in Baltimore. The safe bet would be on the guy who produced last year and appears to be relatively healthy.