MLB's Biggest Trade Chips 2 Months from the 2016 Deadline
It'd be easy to rattle off names like Jose Fernandez, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout as the biggest trade chips in baseball. It'd be just as easy to include top prospects like Washington's Lucas Giolito, Pittsburgh's Tyler Glasnow and Philadelphia's J.P. Crawford on the pages that follow.
But to do so would be pointless, for there's a better chance of Derek Jeter coming out of retirement than there is of any of those players getting moved anytime soon.
No, we're interested in players that could be traded, those whose current teams might dangle them as trade chips over a ravenous pool of contenders looking to one-up each other and gain an advantage over their competition, both for the stretch run and, hopefully, the playoffs.
Of course, not all trade chips are created equal. While we've identified more than 20 potential trade candidates, we'll dig into the 10 biggest, looking at their performance, contract and what, if anything, the rumor mill has been telling us recently in regard to their short-term futures.
*You'll see FanGraphs' wRC+ metric (Weighted Runs Created Plus) referred to for position players on the pages that follow, which attempts to provide a more accurate representation of a player's productivity than batting average or OPS.
Honorable Mention
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Whether it be their contract, age, injury concerns, current level of production or a combination of things, these players aren't quite as valuable in a potential trade as those who follow.
That said, it only takes one general manager who's convinced one of these players is the missing piece for his team to make that assessment incorrect, and it wouldn't be surprising to see some, if not all, of them moved before baseball's trade deadline arrives.
- RP John Axford, Oakland Athletics
- OF Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees
- 1B Chris Carter, Milwaukee Brewers
- SP Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres
- SS Zack Cozart, Cincinnati Reds
- RP Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
- OF Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
- OF Matt Kemp, San Diego Padres
- SP Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
- C Derek Norris, San Diego Padres
- SP/RP Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres
- OF Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics
- SP James Shields, San Diego Padres
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
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2016 Stats
43 G, .352/.421/.579, 18 XBH (9 HR), 32 RBI, 19 BB, 24 K, 164 wRC+
Contract Status
$19 million salary in 2016; due $72 million from 2017 to 2020; $15 million mutual option for 2021 ($4 million buyout)*
Overview
There are plenty of reasons for teams to be leery of trading for Ryan Braun, whether it be his performance-enhancing-drug-tainted past, his contract or the litany of injuries he's dealt with in recent years, which include issues with his thumb, wrist and back.
Yet Milwaukee's 32-year-old star has become "the hot name out there," a National League scout recently told the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, so those issues may not be quite as big an obstacle to a trade as some would like to believe. That wasn't lost on ESPN.com's Buster Olney:
"Braun's rebound this season has altered the perception of him as a player you wouldn't touch because of his age and PED history into someone worth considering, rival evaluators say. "As he gets closer to the end of his contract, he becomes more attractive," said one executive, "and he's probably a better baserunner and defender than people realize." (Braun is among the top 20 outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved this season, and has 167 career steals.)
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That said, the Brewers would unquestionably have to eat a substantial portion of his remaining salary to facilitate a trade. But Braun has proved he can still produce at an elite level when healthy and could be a game-changer if put in the middle of a contender's lineup with more talent surrounding him.
*MVP, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards can bump the mutual option in 2021 up to $20 million.
Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds
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2016 Stats
48 G, .271/.321/.559, 25 XBH (11 HR), 34 RBI, 12 BB, 42 K, 128 wRC+
Contract Status
$12.5 million salary in 2016; $13 million team option for 2017 ($1 million buyout)
Overview
Jay Bruce was nearly traded to Toronto back in February, with USA Today's Bob Nightengale reporting Cincinnati was willing to pick up nearly $8 million of his 2016 salary. Now, the Reds wouldn't have to pick up quite as much to make a deal work.
But they're going to have to pick up some of the remaining cash on Bruce's deal, as balky knees, a pair of subpar seasons and horrific outfield defense have lowered Bruce's trade value. However, the 29-year-old's power is for real and would play in any ballpark. That has value.
Kansas City is believed to have some interest in Bruce, according to a report from Cafardo, while it's fair to assume any contender in the market for a left-handed bat or additional pop would have some level of interest in Bruce. He could be more than a short-term rental.
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Kole Calhoun, RF, Los Angeles Angels
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2016 Stats
52 G, .294/.374/.423, 15 XBH (4 HR), 25 RBI, 23 BB, 39 K, 127 wRC+
Contract Status
$3.4 million salary in 2016; Two years of arbitration remaining
Overview
Kole Calhoun isn't a superstar, nor is he on the same level as some of the other bats on this list when it comes to game-changing ability. He's just a solid all-around ballplayer, a terrific complementary piece who can hit anywhere from second to sixth in a team's lineup.
Still in the prime of his career, under team control and relatively inexpensive, Calhoun would command a sizable return were he to be made available. That alone is reason enough for the Los Angeles Angels to at least consider listening to offers for the 28-year-old.
After all, the Angels farm system is universally regarded as baseball's worst; ESPN.com's Keith Law called it "the worst farm system he's ever seen," while both Baseball America and Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter ranked it dead last in their annual rankings heading into the season.
Aroldis Chapman, CL, New York Yankees
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2016 Stats
10 G, 0-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 9.1 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 15 K, 7-for-7 SV
Contract Status
*$11.325 million salary in 2016; free agent after the season
Overview
Whether you think Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel is baseball's most dominant closer, only one of them has a chance to be available as the trade deadline nears. And that makes Chapman an incredibly valuable trade chip for the New York Yankees to play.
His suspension a thing of the past, Chapman has been throwing the ball as well as he ever has, posting a career-low walk rate while remaining one of baseball's elite strikeout artists.
Considering the negligible price the Yankees paid to obtain him from Cincinnati and the team still having a pair of All-Star relievers in Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller—who can both close and are under team control—trading Chapman makes sense.
It's especially sensible if the team falls out of contention, with Cafardo hearing chatter that the Yankees could look to move Chapman later this month if things go awry quickly. He goes on to name the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers as potential suitors due to their prior interest.
*Chapman lost $1,856,557 of his 2016 salary as part of his 30-game suspension for violating MLB's domestic violence policy.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
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2016 Stats
51 G, .307/.352/.525, 22 XBH (10 HR), 23 RBI, 14 BB, 40 K, 117 wRC+
Contract Status
$17 million salary in 2016; due $20 million in 2017*
Overview
There's no getting around the fact Carlos Gonzalez is significantly less productive away from Coors Field, but even that common knowledge isn't enough to deter teams from trying to add the power in his left-handed bat to their lineup.
"They asked for my top two minor league players, a major league player and to absorb most of the contract," a general manager who was interested in Gonzalez told CBS Chicago's Bruce Levine back in spring training. "We will wait for something more realistic."
Were the Rockies willing to lower their demands, it wouldn't be hard to find a new home for the 30-year-old, with the Angels and the Chicago White Sox floated as potential landing spots by Cafardo.
*CarGo receives a $1 million assignment bonus if traded.
Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2016 Stats
9 GS, 3-5, 6.19 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 48 IP, 55 H, 24 BB, 41 K
Contract Status
$527,500 salary in 2016; Three years of arbitration remaining
Overview
Nothing kills a player's trade value like injury and ineffectiveness, and both have hit Oakland's Sonny Gray in 2016.
The 26-year-old had put up the worst numbers of his career (6.19 ERA, 1.65 WHIP) and struggled with command (4.5 BB/9 and a MLB-leading nine wild pitches) before landing on the disabled list with a strained trapezius muscle near his right shoulder May 23.
And yet every team would love the chance to add him to its rotation. With a weak crop of starters set to hit free agency, trading Gray this season once he's healthy and back on track could be Oakland's best move, as Olney wrote back in April:
"Gray is 26. He has been an All-Star already. He has the deep respect of the industry in how he competes; a team could pay a heavy price for him with the confidence that Gray could anchor a rotation in the postseason. ...
And what they [the A's] could get this summer might be better than any package they'll ever get for the right-hander, who could turn out to be the centerpiece in a one-of-a-kind auction this summer.
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At some point in the not-so-distant future, Gray is going to become too expensive for Oakland's liking. There's a strong argument to be made for moving him now while his financial cost is so low and able to fit into nearly any team's budget.
Rich Hill, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2016 Stats
11 GS, 8-3, 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 64 IP, 48 H, 24 BB, 74 K
Contract Status
$6 million salary in 2016; free agent after the season
Overview
At the age of 36, Rich Hill isn't a long-term answer for anyone, including the Oakland Athletics. Normally, that would limit the kind of return the A's could expect in a trade. But he could be the best starter available as the trade deadline approaches, which would create a bidding war for his services.
Pittsburgh could be a landing spot, wrote Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, while both Olney and Hall of Fame scribe Peter Gammons believe a return to Boston, where he revived his career late last year, could be in order.
As Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal points out, the A's could keep him and extend a qualifying offer after the season with the hope he declines, which would result in draft pick compensation when he's signed elsewhere. But are they really willing to risk having to pay a 37-year-old pitcher more than $15 million?
Probably not.
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
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2016 Stats
49 G, .299/.355/.531, 21 XBH (9 HR), 28 RBI, 16 BB, 38 K, 131 wRC+
Contract Status
$4.25 million salary in 2016; $5.25 million team option for 2017 ($250,000 buyout)
Overview
Catchers on team-friendly deals who hit and make the other team think twice about trying to steal don't get traded often, so you can understand why it'll likely cost a small fortune for a team to get its hands on Jonathan Lucroy.
Fully recovered from the broken toe and concussion that limited him to 103 games last year, Lucroy is attractive to all teams, whether they're in contention or not. That includes typically payroll-limited clubs like Tampa Bay, which is why Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times believes the Rays should swing a deal.
As you'd imagine, Lucroy prefers to play for a contender, which he made clear back in January to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. His value isn't going to get any higher, and the Brewers would be wise to move him while he's healthy. Let another team assume the injury risk.
With a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to eight teams—a list that oddly enough includes at least one contender (Washington), per Rosenthal—the 29-year-old does have some control over where he winds up.
Andrew Miller, RP, New York Yankees
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2016 Stats
21 G, 2-0, 0.87 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 20.2 IP, 12 H, 1 BB, 38 K, 6-for-7 SV
Contract Status
$9 million salary in 2016; due $18 million from 2017 to 2018
Overview
Nobody would have blamed Andrew Miller for being upset after learning the New York Yankees had traded for Aroldis Chapman. After all, Miller was the team's incumbent closer and had done nothing to lose the job. Instead of freaking out, the 31-year-old reliever embraced it, as he told WFAN's Mike Francesa in early February, per MLB.com's Bryan Hoch:
"Certainly, they felt like more firepower can help us reach the goals. And if that's what it takes to get there, then I'm all for it. ... My goal is to win. I've told people all along that there's no resume that I'm building. I'm not worried about some sort of milestone or Hall of Fame case or anything like that.
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That selfless attitude—along with his performance, which has been even better than it was in 2015—makes Miller an attractive potential addition for teams in need of late-inning help. That list that could include the Texas Rangers, according to MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi, who have the prospects to put together a package that could be too tempting for the Yankees to pass up.
SP Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Stats
11 GS, 1-5, 2.77 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 68.1 IP, 53 H, 20 BB, 62 K
Contract Status
$3.3 million salary in 2016; due $25.3 million from 2017 to 2019; $12 million 2020 team option ($1 million buyout)
Overview
Julio Teheran didn't have a strong season in 2015, pitching to a 4.04 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, but the 25-year-old has bounced back in a big way for Atlanta this season, flashing the stuff that made him a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm and one of baseball's brightest young pitchers only a few years ago.
That he's under team control through 2020 on a bargain of a deal only increases his appeal to other teams, and it's why the Braves aren't about to just give him away for the sake of making a trade.
"The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over," Atlanta general manager John Coppolella told Rosenthal last week. "We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran."
Overwhelmed, according to Rosenthal, would be a package that includes a major league hitter of similar quality and age. Only a few players fit that description—a list that includes Houston's George Springer along with the aforementioned Trout and Harper—and those three aren't available.
Even with Atlanta's high asking price, a contender may become desperate enough to meet it to add Teheran.
Salary information via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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