MLB's Biggest Winners and Losers at the 2016 Quarter Mark
What do Game of Thrones' Jon Snow and a guy who tells you he has a handle on the 2016 MLB season have in common?
They both know nothing.
Yes, we've reached the one-quarter mark of the 162-game grind. But predicting the future is still folly.
Hot streaks, cold spells, injuries and trades will inevitably upend the balance of power. The last won't necessarily be first, but they could be.
At the same time, samples are moving from small to medium-sized, and we're deep enough in to make some educated observations.
Like, say, picking the biggest winners and losers from the first act of this four-act, spring-to-autumn melodrama.
In making our picks, we saved room for the obvious (yes, the Chicago Cubs are in), but we also kept an eye out for surprise breakouts (hello, Aledmys Diaz) and unexpected twists (say it ain't so, Dee Gordon).
Tap off your cleats, limber up your commenting muscles and dig in when ready.
Winner: Aledmys Diaz
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Coming into camp, Aledmys Diaz was a 25-year-old with zero MLB experience hanging on the fringes of the St. Louis Cardinals' big league roster.
A spring injury to Cards shortstop Jhonny Peralta opened the door, however, and Diaz walked right through.
Now, he's hitting like an All-Star and pushing his way to the front of the National League Rookie of the Year race.
Entering play Tuesday, Diaz ranks third in baseball in batting average (.376) and second in slugging percentage (.658).
There have been bumps in the field, where Diaz has committed an MLB-leading nine errors. He's still rough around the edges, a work in progress.
The Cardinals, though, are understandably sticking by him.
"I'm going to get defensive because he's a young player," manager Mike Matheny said, per ESPN.com's Mark Saxon. "This kid started the season at Double-A last year, and he's doing some really impressive things."
Impressive is an understatement. Diaz has been a revelation, and he's helped the surprisingly potent Cardinals offense pace the NL in OPS.
Now, we wait and see if Diaz and St. Louis can keep it up through the dog days of summer.
Loser: Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Arizona Diamondbacks made big noise this winter, signing 2015 ERA leader Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5 million contract and engineering a blockbuster trade for right-hander Shelby Miller.
Those moves were supposed to shore up the front end of the D-backs rotation and support an offense that finished second in the National League in runs scored last year.
The bad omens began when Arizona lost All-Star center fielder A.J. Pollock for at least three months to a spring training elbow fracture.
That reverse mojo has continued into the regular season. Greinke has surrendered 29 earned runs in 49.2 innings after giving up just 41 earned runs in 222.2 innings last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Miller, meanwhile, owns a 6.94 ERA through eight starts. It's early, but the package the Diamondbacks sent the Atlanta Braves to land Miller—which included burgeoning MLB outfielder Ender Inciarte and shortstop Dansby Swanson, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft—is looking like an overpay bordering on highway robbery.
To make matters worse, the Diamondbacks' best player, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, is hitting a paltry .223.
Not surprisingly, Arizona is tied for last place in the NL West at 18-23.
There's plenty of time to turn things around, obviously. Goldschmidt will raise his average, Pollock could possibly return for the stretch run and Greinke and Miller may yet sort things out.
But so far, that noisy winter has fizzled like a desert mirage.
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
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Are the Philadelphia Phillies for real?
Entering play Tuesday, the Phils own a 22-17 record and sit 1.5 games out of first place in the NL East. So in that sense, the answer is a definitive "yes."
After collapsing under the weight of cumbersome veteran contracts and suffering through a painful, protracted rebuild, Philadelphia is blossoming ahead of schedule thanks to a rotation fronted by budding aces Vincent Velasquez and Aaron Nola.
There are reasons to doubt the Phillies can keep this up, including their minus-32 run differential and an offense that owns a collective .235/.293/.361 slash line.
In all likelihood, Philadelphia will regress as the season wears on and fade from the postseason picture.
But they've given a hope-starved fanbase something to cheer for in the early going. Plus, with a fertile farm system and more money coming off the books after the season—including Ryan Howard's five-year, $125 million deal—the foundation is set for contention in 2017 and beyond.
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Loser: Los Angeles Angels
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The arrival of Tim Lincecum—who signed a one-year deal with the Angels Monday, per ESPN's Jim Bowden—should provide some intrigue in Anaheim.
The two-time NL Cy Young Award winner hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2011, but he flashed low-90s velocity in a recent showcase as he works his way back from offseason hip surgery.
Even if The Freak regains vintage form, however, he won't be able to save this sinking ship.
The Angels roster has been decimated by injuries to pitchers Garrett Richards, C.J. Wilson, Andrew Heaney and Huston Street, as well as shortstop Andrelton Simmons.
And outside of franchise cornerstone Mike Trout, the lineup is mostly punchless. That includes 36-year-old designated hitter Albert Pujols, who is not yet halfway through the 10-year, $240 million deal he inked with Los Angeles prior to the 2012 season and is hitting a depressing .212.
Los Angeles has a 17-21 record, which isn't as bad as other expected American League contenders, including the New York Yankees (16-21), Houston Astros (15-24) and Minnesota Twins (10-27).
But add the Halos' debilitating payroll obligations and MLB's worst farm system, and you're looking at a bad situation that's steamrolling rapidly toward worse.
Winner: Big Papi, Plus Boston and Baltimore's Bashers
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If you like thump, you should hang out in the AL East.
That's where the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles play, and boy, do they enjoy bashing baseballs.
Entering play Tuesday, the Sox and O's are tied for the division lead. Boston paces MLB in slugging percentage (.489) and OPS (.848), while Baltimore leads the way in home runs (55).
The Orioles boast a gaggle of mashers, including Chris Davis, AL MVP candidate Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo. But the most notable swinger so far has been Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz.
Big Papi is nailing his swan-song season, having already cracked 10 home runs to go along with 33 RBI and an MLB-leading 1.101 OPS.
He's 40 years old, so it's probable he'll slow down at some point. Then again, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe asked, "If Ortiz announced tomorrow that he wanted to play in 2017 and would sign right now for $20 million, how could the Red Sox refuse him?"
Answer: They couldn't.
Loser: Dee Gordon
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There are two ways to look at Dee Gordon's 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension, which sent shockwaves through the game when it was announced in late April.
The first, and simplest, is that Gordon cheated. The slender Miami Marlins second baseman used PEDs to gain an edge, and now everything from his 2015 batting title to his pair of All-Star appearances is tainted.
Gordon pleaded ignorance in a statement, saying he didn't "knowingly" ingest any banned substances. Still, he added, "I have let down my teammates, the organization and the fans."
No doubt your cynical Spidey senses are tingling.
That's the part where Gordon is a loser, though he'll still collect most of the five-year, $50 million contract he signed with Miami in January.
There's another way to spin this, though.
Every time a high-profile star gets popped for PEDs, it adds credibility to MLB's testing policy and moves the league further away from the hulking heyday of the steroid era.
Gordon sullied his image, and he'll have to work hard to repair it. Bigger picture, however, baseball served notice that no one is above the rules.
Winner: Chicago Baseball Fans
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It's been a first-place kind of start in the Second City.
Everyone predicted the Cubs would be good, with their deep, talented young roster fresh off a trip to the National League Championship Series.
And the Cubbies haven't disappointed (not yet, anyway), posting a 27-9 record and plus-109 run differential, both tops in baseball.
Their South Side counterparts, meanwhile, have managed to grab a share of the spotlight.
After finishing a dispiriting 76-86 in 2015 and slogging through an acrimonious spring training, the White Sox didn't enter 2016 with much momentum.
They've generated plenty in the early going. Their 24-14 record puts them atop the AL Central, and their pitching staff—anchored by left-handers Chris Sale and Jose Quintana—leads the AL in ERA.
It's too early to start printing those all-Chicago World Series tickets. The White Sox face a tough battle in the balanced AL Central, which features the defending world champion Kansas City Royals.
And the Cubs, as if you needed reminding, are staring down a 107-year-and-counting title drought. In fact, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch pointed out, the Cubs and White Sox have been to the playoffs at the same time once in 110 years, in 2008.
Forget history, though. This figures to be a fun summer for Illinois baseball fans—and maybe an action-packed autumn, too.
All statistics current as of May 16 and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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