MLB 'Contender or Pretender' Breakdown at the 2016 One-Quarter Mark
It's time for America's favorite game show, "Contender or Pretender."
OK, maybe it's not America's favorite game show, but we're still going to play, and you're invited to play along.
It works like this: We take a look at the teams with the best records in baseball and determine whether they're legitimate threats to make the playoffs (contenders) or if their early-season success is unsustainable (pretenders), which could be for a variety of reasons.
While our primary focus will be on the teams with the best records, we'll also touch on the five clubs that round out MLB's top 20. A quick glance at the standings tells us which teams made the cut, but how many of them are pretenders trespassing in the land of contenders?
Honorable Mentions
1 of 18
While it's far too early to rule any team out of contention, we're going to limit our honorable mentions to the next five teams in the overall standings. That leaves a trio of teams we considered contenders heading into the season—the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees—off our list.
They've simply failed to meet even the most modest of expectations and have work to do before they can once again be considered fringe contenders, much less legitimate ones.
Tampa Bay Rays (19-19)
A lack of offense has the Rays battling the Yankees for last place in the wide-open AL East, with the Rays at or near the bottom of the leaderboards in multiple offensive categories. Losing Logan Forsythe, the team's most consistent bat, to a fractured shoulder isn't going to make hanging in the race any easier.
Toronto Blue Jays (19-23)
Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki are all hitting below .250, and only Bautista has an OPS above .770. When their bats wake up, Toronto, which has gotten solid starting pitching, could quickly take control of a wide-open AL East, even with a shaky bullpen.
Detroit Tigers (19-21)
Offense hasn't been an issue for the Tigers despite Justin Upton's continued struggles at the plate, but the pitching staff is a mess after Jordan Zimmermann. Detroit lacks the depth and trade chips to fix what ails it.
Arizona Diamondbacks (19-24)
Zack Greinke's ERA sits above 5.00, and Shelby Miller has nearly as many walks (25) as strikeouts (27), leaving the Diamondbacks exactly where they were a year ago—a team with a solid offense, a shaky pitching staff and little chance of overtaking the senior circuit's best for a playoff berth.
Oakland Athletics (19-22)
A mediocre offense and underachieving pitching staff aren't enough to crack the realm of contenders, even in a wide-open AL West.
Kansas City Royals
2 of 18
Record: 20-20
Place: Third in AL Central
Kansas City's defense of its World Series crown got off to a rousing start, as the Royals jumped out to an 8-2 record over their first 10 games. While the reigning champs remain stout defensively in the field, they've fallen flat since, dropping 18 of their last 30 contests.
There's nothing noble about the way the Royals are hitting, with Eric Hosmer the only lineup regular hitting above .270 or with an OPS over .800. But Lorenzo Cain has started to come around, and eventually, so should Alcides Escobar, Alex Gordon and Kendrys Morales, three of the team's biggest underachievers.
The bigger concern lies in the rotation, which can't stop handing out walks and has become increasingly home run-prone. Of the 21 starts that Yordano Ventura and the currently injured Chris Young and Kris Medlen have made, only five have met the criteria to be called a quality outing.
Not even the Kansas City bullpen, which remains one of baseball's best with Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera ready to shut things down in the late innings, can make up for such ineffectiveness.
While the Royals have cooled off and are far from a perfect team, they've managed to stay within shouting distance of first place in the division and their third consecutive playoff appearance.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Dodgers
3 of 18
Record: 21-20
Place: Tied for second in NL West
One day, the Dodgers are going to figure out how to put together a solid major league bullpen. But that day has not yet arrived, and the team's woeful relief corps (aside from All-Star closer Kenley Jansen) remains the biggest issue for a squad that's too talented to be hanging around the .500 mark.
The rotation has withstood a slew of injuries to remain one of the more effective groups in baseball, led by the best pitcher on the planet, Clayton Kershaw, and Japanese import Kenta Maeda, who has been about as good as could possibly be expected in his first taste of the majors.
Considering the bullpen's woes and that only about half of the team's lineup is actually producing—Yasiel Puig, Justin Turner and Howie Kendrick are among those struggling to contribute—it's remarkable to find the Dodgers have a plus-16 run differential.
While the Dodgers certainly haven't gotten off to the kind of start most hoped they would under first-year manager Dave Roberts, the team has hung around the top of the NL West—and will continue to do so. With deep pockets and a deep farm system, the Dodgers can add the pieces they need to make a run.
Verdict: Contender
Colorado Rockies
4 of 18
Record: 20-19
Place: Tied for second in NL West
It's true that, for the first time in years, the Colorado pitching staff isn't nearly as bad as we've been accustomed to. Tyler Chatwood and Chad Bettis have been solid atop the rotation, while youngsters Jon Gray and Eddie Butler have shown flashes of what they're capable of doing.
But it's not great either. If it were, a team that routinely boasts one of baseball's most lethal lineups wouldn't be sitting with a run differential of zero on the season. The big bats of Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez and Trevor Story can only do so much.
Things are most assuredly looking up for the Rockies, and the pitching staff has help on the way in the form of prospects Jeff Hoffman and Kyle Freeland. But it'll be another year before we can label Colorado as anything but a...
Verdict: Pretender
St. Louis Cardinals
5 of 18
Record: 21-19
Place: Third in NL Central
The Cardinals hold the National League's second-highest run differential (plus-49) yet sit only two games above .500. What gives? Going 2-7 against division rivals Chicago and Pittsburgh doesn't help, nor does a 2-5 record in one-run games.
St. Louis has been one of baseball's best offensive teams, with Kolten Wong and Randal Grichuk the only regulars sitting with an OPS below .700. Wong's double-play partner, Aledmys Diaz, has been phenomenal, pacing the team with a .376/.403/.648 triple-slash line, but he's also committed an MLB-leading 10 errors.
Shaky defense hasn't helped a pitching staff that's been good but not great. Both the rotation and bullpen sit in the middle of the pack in most statistical categories, with Adam Wainwright and Mike Leake off to slow starts on the mound.
While they might not catch Chicago atop the division, these are still the Cardinals, who always seem to find a way to win more often than they lose.
Verdict: Contender
Miami Marlins
6 of 18
Record: 21-19
Place: Fourth in NL East
Miami doesn't have a glaring weakness or an overwhelming strength, which, in theory, means the Marlins are a well-rounded team. And they are. But it also means they're sort of average. We need only to look at the team's minus-three run differential to see just how average the Marlins are.
It shouldn't be that way, with FanGraphs' Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) metric pegging six lineup regulars—including the team's impressive young outfield of Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich—as producing at an above-average rate. Yet the Marlins sit in the bottom half of baseball when it comes to scoring runs.
If they're not scoring runs with more than two-thirds of the lineup producing, it's hard to believe things will change for the better when some of those bats start to cool off. Throw in a solid but unspectacular pitching staff led by Jose Fernandez, who is on an innings limit, and it's hard to envision the Marlins' hanging in contention the entire year.
Verdict: Pretender
Texas Rangers
7 of 18
Record: 22-19
Place: Second in AL West
Rangers starters have outperformed their peripherals, but the rotation will soon get a huge boost in the form of Yu Darvish, the team's pre-Cole Hamels ace who missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Darvish's return will not only make the rotation better, but it could impact the bullpen as well, with whoever he replaces perhaps sliding into relief, an area in which the Rangers need help. Only the Cincinnati bullpen has pitched to a higher ERA than the group of relievers Texas has been trotting out.
That inability to keep things close after the starters have departed has helped to undermine the efforts of the offense, which has been one of baseball's highest-scoring units despite getting almost no production out of Delino DeShields Jr. and Prince Fielder.
Verdict: Contender
Pittsburgh Pirates
8 of 18
Record: 21-18
Place: Second in NL Central
For years, Pittsburgh has been able to snap its fingers, sprinkle some magic pixie dust and finish the season with one of baseball's best pitching staffs, full of castoffs from other teams who find new life under the watchful eye of pitching coach Ray Searage.
Perhaps there's a pixie-dust shortage, for Pirates pitchers have been positively pedestrian (try saying that five times fast). Gerrit Cole is the only starter with an ERA below 4.45 or a WHIP below 1.35, while only two relievers—Mark Melancon and Tony Watson—have come close to meeting expectations.
But Pittsburgh has remained in contention thanks to a productive lineup and solid defense, both of which recently got a boost with the return to action of Jung Ho Kang. With top pitching prospects Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon both nearly MLB-ready, they've got reinforcements for the rotation on the way.
Verdict: Contender
Cleveland Indians
9 of 18
Record: 20-17
Place: Second in AL Central
Sketchy defense, hit-or-miss offense and solid pitching. Does that sound familiar?
That's essentially been the M.O. in Cleveland since Terry Francona took over as manager, and while it always keeps the Indians in contention, it's a formula that rarely finds them playing meaningful baseball in October.
Corey Kluber remains the rock of a rotation that, despite missing Carlos Carrasco for nearly a month because of a strained hamstring, has been remarkably consistent. When healthy, few teams can roll out a foursome like Cleveland can with Kluber, Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer.
With Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw seemingly over their early-season issues, the bullpen has once again become a strength for the Tribe as well. It's because of the team's pitching staff that the Indians sit with a plus-30 run differential, for the offense has been average no matter how you look at it.
A healthy Michael Brantley would certainly give the lineup a jolt, but he's out of action indefinitely after experiencing inflammation and discomfort in his surgically repaired right shoulder.
Verdict: Contender
New York Mets
10 of 18
Record: 22-17
Place: Third in NL East
How good is the pitching in New York? Seven of the 12 pitchers the Mets carry on their active roster have an ERA below 3.00. Only two—Matt Harvey and Logan Verrett—have an ERA of 3.70 or worse. And it's fair to think that, barring an unknown injury, Harvey is going to eventually round into form.
That kind of dominance from the hill is enough to make any team a contender—even one such as the Mets, with a lineup that struggles to put up runs and support its pitching staff.
Among Mets regulars, only Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto have posted an OPS above .800, while both David Wright and Curtis Granderson have been painfully slow to come around at the plate. Granderson, who nearly set a career best with a .364 on-base percentage last year, is now barely reaching base 30 percent of the time.
Still, that pitching will keep the Mets in most games, with even the slightest bit of offense enough to put the team on top more often than not.
Verdict: Contender
Seattle Mariners
11 of 18
Record: 22-17
Place: First in AL West
The Mariners have been a popular preseason pick the past few years, and it looks like things are finally coming together.
Robinson Cano leads a solid offensive attack, one that hasn't had trouble scoring despite getting little from offseason additions Nori Aoki, Adam Lind and Leonys Martin. All three sit with an OPS below .660. Martin has shined defensively, however—unlike the rest of the team, which has struggled in the field.
Yet the pitching staff has been one of baseball's best despite the shaky leather being flashed behind it. Felix Hernandez and Taijuan Walker lead a solid if unspectacular rotation, while the bullpen that new general manager Jerry Dipoto rebuilt over the winter has been tremendous.
In a division without a dominant team, this could be the year Seattle finally ends its 15-year absence from the playoffs.
Verdict: Contender
San Francisco Giants
12 of 18
Record: 24-18
Place: First in NL West
Point to the overplayed even-year narrative in San Francisco if you must, but the fact is that the Giants have themselves a pretty good baseball team, albeit one with areas that need improvement.
Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija have done exactly what San Francisco hoped they'd do—add two legitimate front-end starters to help Madison Bumgarner atop the rotation. But Matt Cain and Jake Peavy have pulled the group's overall numbers down, and the team lacks significant depth to fill in.
The bullpen does a good job of limiting home runs and inducing ground balls but struggles to strand runners when they get on base, which helps to explain how a team with a lineup that hasn't struggled to score sits with only a plus-eight run differential.
That the Giants are scoring runs is an encouraging sign because they've done so without Buster Posey performing at his usual level of excellence. It stands to reason that his bat will soon get going, and when it does, the Giants will become that much more of a threat in the NL West.
Verdict: Contender
Philadelphia Phillies
13 of 18
Record: 24-17
Place: Second in NL East
Astonishing. That's the best way to describe the baseball world's reaction to Philadelphia's early-season success. After all, heading into the season, many expected this team to battle Atlanta for last place in the NL East—not hang with Washington and New York atop the division.
Starting pitching has been behind the team's hot start, with a combined 3.72 ERA (ninth in the majors) and strong peripherals to boot, leading MLB in strikeouts per nine innings. Youngsters Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez have stood out, both pitching to an ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.00.
But for as good as the pitching has been, the Phillies have still been outscored by 38 runs on the season, an ominous sign about the team's chances of staying in contention.
"We're not blind to the fact that our run differential is negative by a significant margin," general manager Matt Klentak told the Philadelphia Inquirer's Matt Gelb. "We're well aware that there has been a lack of offensive production throughout much of the lineup."
It'd be one thing if the Phillies lineup were full of underachieving players we could reasonably expect to come around. But it's not. Aside from Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco, Philadelphia just doesn't have the bats it needs to stay in contention for the long haul.
Verdict: Pretender
Washington Nationals
14 of 18
Record: 24-16
Place: First in NL East
Here's everything you need to know about Washington's rotation (and pitching staff in general): Max Scherzer is one of two Nationals pitchers with an ERA above 4.00. That's the same Max Scherzer who tied the MLB single-game strikeout record earlier this month, recording nearly as many K's (20) as balls (23).
Like their division rivals in New York, the Nationals' bats haven't kept pace with their arms, with Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos doing most of the work offensively. The eventual arrival of shortstop prospect Trea Turner could provide the spark the lineup needs to get back on track.
Ultimately, Washington's chances of going on a deep playoff run will depend on the pitching staff's ability to stay strong and whether the likes of Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman start contributing offensively.
Verdict: Contender
Chicago White Sox
15 of 18
Record: 24-16
Place: First in AL Central
Chicago jumped on the collective back of its pitching staff to start the season, with the rotation (3.18 ERA) and bullpen (1.69 ERA) combining to post the AL's lowest team ERA (2.72) in April, the third lowest in all of baseball, trailing only Washington and the crosstown Cubs.
But things have begun to unravel on the mound in May. The bullpen's ERA has jumped by more than three full runs, while the rotation, after Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, has been awful. And the White Sox lack the depth needed to plug the leaks that are beginning to appear.
They do, however, have the $13 million that Adam LaRoche forfeited when he retired during spring training available to spend, so they can take back salary in a deal if it'll help upgrade the pitching staff. Problem is, the lineup could use a jolt as well.
Even with the offseason additions of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie, the White Sox have been merely average offensively, ranking seventh in the AL (and 16th in baseball) with a .728 OPS. Adjusted offense isn't overly impressed with the lineup either, dropping them to eighth in the AL (15th in MLB).
While there are legitimate questions about the White Sox going forward, the same can be said about every other team in the AL Central. Chicago isn't perfect and needs help, but it's good enough to hang in the race.
Verdict: Contender
Boston Red Sox
16 of 18
Record: 25-16
Place: Second in AL East
The Red Sox spent big on David Price to improve the rotation, but it's Big Papi—David Ortiz—and the rest of the lineup who have Boston neck and neck with the Orioles for first place in the AL East.
One of five everyday players hitting over .300 for the Red Sox, who have outscored their opposition by nearly 60 runs, Ortiz leads the AL in slugging percentage (.652) and is second in OPS (1.044) in the final year of his career.
Boston has needed that offensive explosion to atone for a rotation that has underwhelmed. Knuckleballer Steven Wright and a resurgent Rick Porcello are the only starters with an ERA below 5.00, while Price has allowed at least five earned runs in four of his first nine starts.
Verdict: Contender
Baltimore Orioles
17 of 18
Record: 24-14
Place: First in AL East
The more things change, the more they stay the same in Baltimore.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards is once again home to one of baseball's best bullpens, an offense that has no trouble putting runs on the board and a rotation that, after Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman, scares the living daylights out of most Orioles fans.
If there's a key to Baltimore remaining in contention and keeping its plus-37 run differential from shrinking, it might be the health of starter Yovani Gallardo's right shoulder.
Out since late April with shoulder tendinitis, the 30-year-old has proved himself to be a reliable innings-eater who can keep things close. The same can't be said about the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez, Mike Wright or Tyler Wilson, who currently comprise three-fifths of Baltimore's rotation.
Even with a less than stellar rotation, it's hard to dislike Baltimore's chances of staying in contention. With nine of their next 10 games on the road, we'll get to see what they're really made of.
Verdict: Contender
Chicago Cubs
18 of 18
Record: 28-10
Place: First in NL Central
We knew the Cubs were going to be good coming off a 97-win season and a trip to the National League Championship Series, but this? Nobody expected things to be this good at Wrigley Field. Consider the following, courtesy of CBS Sports' Dayn Perry:
"Just three teams won more games than the 2016 Cubs over their first 35. Those three teams are the 1984 Tigers (30), the 1939 Yankees (28), and the 1928 Yankees (28). Each of those three teams went on to win the World Series. Each Yankees model swept the Fall Classic, while the Tigers prevailed over the Padres in five games. ...
... To get to 100 wins for the first time since 1935, the Cubs will need to win at "just" a .575 clip—room for substantial regression, in other words.
"
While regression is possible, it's not a foregone conclusion.
Owners of baseball's best record, the Cubs, with a ridiculous plus-108 run differential, have been laying waste to the opposition, not just beating them. And they've done it without the services of Kyle Schwarber and with little offensive contribution from Jason Heyward.
Things are equally impressive in the rotation, where the team's worst pitcher, statistically speaking, is Kyle Hendricks, with a 3.51 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. That kind of performance would be good enough to make Hendricks a top two arm on a number of teams.
After Hector Rondon and Adam Warren, the bullpen hasn't been great. But it hasn't really mattered, and the Cubs have more than enough in the way of trade chips to address the situation if need be.
Verdict: Contender
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
