San Francisco 49ers Mock Draft Roundup: What the Experts Are Saying
Which player will the San Francisco 49ers take with the seventh overall pick in the draft?
Any top prospect the Niners could take would help the team, as it has needs everywhere. They’re rebuilding—they need as many talented players as they can get, and they need a quarterback, too.
Colin Kaepernick requested a trade back in February, according to Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com. The Niners may try to trade the signal-caller during the draft—in which case they may take a quarterback in Round 1—or they may keep Kaepernick, in which case they could wait until Day 3 to take a QB.
With that in mind, let’s find out who the experts predict the 49ers will take in Round 1.
Dane Brugler, NFLDraftScout.com: ILB Myles Jack, UCLA
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In last Thursday's mock draft, NFLDraftScout.com analyst Dane Brugler picked UCLA inside linebacker Myles Jack for the 49ers.
“There are several teams who will not consider Jack due to his knee injury,” Brugler wrote, “but there are also teams who will see the linebacker as worth the risk. And San Francisco might be one of those teams.”
Brugler is likely correct that the Niners will consider drafting Jack, who tore his meniscus in September and has a "chondral defect" (cartilage damage) in his right knee, according to Albert Breer of NFL.com.
Over the past few years, the Niners have drafted several players with injured knees, including wide receiver DeAndre Smelter in 2015, guard Brandon Thomas in 2014 and defensive tackle Tank Carradine in 2013. However, none of those players were first-round picks. Carradine was a second-rounder, Thomas was a third-rounder and Smelter was a fourth-rounder.
Would the Niners spend a top-10 pick on a player with cartilage damage in his knee? Probably not, although they might take him in the mid-teens if he falls and they trade down.
Jared Dubin, CBS Sports: DE DeForest Buckner, Oregon
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In last Thursday's mock draft, CBS Sports analyst Jared Dubin selected Oregon defensive end DeForest Buckner for the 49ers.
“The 49ers took Buckner’s former Oregon teammate Arik Armstead last season,” Dubin wrote, “but Buckner is like if Armstead did everything 15 to 20 percent better. Pair them on the same defensive line again, and you’ll get some nice results.”
Buckner seems to be the most popular pick for San Francisco in recent mock drafts, but the Niners likely won't take him. Hear me out.
If the Niners were to draft Buckner, he would be an interior pass-rushing specialist in his rookie season like Armstead was last year. Buckner and Armstead can’t hold their ground yet against double-team blocks in the running game, but both can rush the passer. They’d make an excellent tandem in the middle of the defensive line on third down and 2nd-and-long.
However, the Niners already have a pass-rushing tandem in the middle of their defensive line: Armstead and Tank Carradine. Don’t forget about Carradine—the Niners sure haven’t.
“I think Carradine is going to have a very good season this year, I really do,” 49ers general manager Trent Baalke told a group of Bay Area reporters last Wednesday, according to the Santa Rosa Press Democrat.
Baalke said Carradine weighs 273 pounds—down 20 pounds from last season—and is considerably quicker rushing the passer. And although Carradine is quicker and leaner, he will remain an interior rusher and will not move out to the edge.
“(Carradine) is a 5-technique, slide him into 3-technique, hand in the dirt, rush the passer,” Baalke said. A 5-technique is a defensive end in the base defense, and a 3-technique is a defensive tackle in the nickel defense. Buckner would be the latter if the Niners were to draft him, which means he would take Carradine’s job. It's doubtful the Niners intend to block Carradine’s opportunity to play.
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State
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In his latest head-to-head mock draft with fellow ESPN analyst Todd McShay, Mel Kiper Jr. (h/t Niners Nation's David Fucillo) picked Michigan State offensive tackle Jack Conklin for the 49ers.
As Kiper said on recent conference call, per Joe Fann of the team's official website:
"Talk about a guy who’s underrated. Jack Conklin played extremely well at left tackle. He did a great job against Ohio State. He did a great job against DeForest Buckner when they played Oregon. He had a great combine. He showed that he’s a great athlete with tremendous length. I don’t see how Jack Conklin isn’t a pick inside of No. 7, let alone at No. 7. He’s been rising fast these last two or three weeks.
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Conklin is a terrific offensive lineman, especially when it comes to run blocking, and he did indeed get the best of Buckner, as Kiper mentioned. Conklin pushed Buckner around like he was his little brother.
The Michigan State product would be an excellent pick, but it seems unlikely that the Niners will take him. They almost always spend their first-round picks on players they’ve met with before the draft, and the Niners are not known to have met with Conklin, according to WalterFootball.com's Walter Cherepinsky.
Conklin may also be a poor fit for the team. His kick-slide in pass protection is slow, which means he can’t play left tackle in the NFL. His best fit may be at right tackle on a team that uses a lot of closed formations with a tight end lined up on the line of scrimmage. In those formations, Conklin would have help in pass protection.
Niners head coach Chip Kelly likes to use open formations with no tight end on the line of scrimmage on passing downs. In those formations, the right tackle has to be just as good of a pass protector as the left tackle, because each player has to block an edge-rusher one-on-one.
In an offense featuring open formations, Conklin may be best suited to play guard, and the 49ers almost surely won’t spend a top-10 pick on a player at that position.
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Chad Reuter, NFL.com: QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis
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In his most recent seven-round mock draft, NFL.com draft analyst Chad Reuter chose Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch for the 49ers.
Here's Reuter's take:
"With the possibility of a trade of Colin Kaepernick to Denver still lingering, it will be tough for the Niners to pass on a mobile, strong-armed prospect like Lynch. Chip Kelly had a lot of success with Nick Foles in his early days with the Eagles, so there’s no reason the same can’t be had with Lynch. The Niners only need to worry if Cleveland or another team tries leapfrogging them.
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Lynch would be a terrific pick for the 49ers...in the second round. He would be a disaster at pick No. 7.
Now that the Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles have traded up for the top two picks and experts expect each team to draft a quarterback, one of the five best nonquarterbacks should be available for the 49ers. That leaves San Francisco in a great position, as it can take the best nonquarterback available at No. 7, or trade down and pick up another second-rounder. Either outcome would be fantastic.
Reaching for a quarterback would be the worst outcome. Lynch is talented, but he’s no sure thing, and the Niners can’t afford to spend their first-round pick on a question mark. They need a prospect that has “Pro Bowler” stamped on his forehead. They can get one if they don’t take a quarterback.
Nate Davis, USA Today: WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss
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In his Saturday mock draft, USA Today’s Nate Davis picked Ole Miss wide receiver Laquon Treadwell for the 49ers, stating a need for help among the team's receiving corps:
"This is an interesting spot, especially if the Niners like QB Paxton Lynch given this is the one offense he might be ready to operate from Day 1. But Chip Kelly’s attack also needs major help at receiver, and Treadwell’s reliable hands and effective route-running would nicely supplement deep threat Torrey Smith.
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Davis is right that Kelly needs a wide receiver. Anquan Boldin, the Niners’ top receiver over the past few seasons, is a free agent, and the team hasn’t replaced him.
Treadwell and Boldin are similar players. Both are big receivers who outmuscle cornerbacks to make catches like NBA power forwards outmuscle guards to grab rebounds.
Both Boldin and Treadwell would be slot receivers in Kelly’s offense, as Kelly prefers fast receivers on the outside and both pass-catchers are relatively slow.
Would the Niners spend a top-10 pick on a slot receiver, someone who plays only about 70 percent of the team's snaps? It's doubtful. If the Niners were to spend a high draft pick on a receiver, I expect they would take someone who can line up outside and play almost 100 percent of the snaps.
Chris Biderman, Niners Wire: RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State
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In a Sunday article, Chris Biderman of USA Today blog Niners Wire argues the 49ers should draft Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott with pick No. 7.
“With (Chip) Kelly’s uptempo offense, it would make plenty of sense to have two high-end running backs to rotate in, keeping the other fresh while defenses gasp for air,” Biderman opined.
Biderman also wrote that Elliott would be the best player available if he were to fall to the Niners at No. 7.
And he is absolutely right—Elliott would be the best player available. He seems like a lock to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award no matter which team drafts him.
However, it's unlikely that team will be the Niners. Just as they wouldn't want to block Tank Carradine by drafting DeForest Buckner, the Niners wouldn't want to block incumbent starting running back Carlos Hyde by drafting Elliott.
Let’s be clear—Elliott is better than Hyde. Elliott would be the starter if the Niners were to draft him, and Hyde would be the backup.
I don’t think the Niners want Hyde to be a backup. They drafted him in the second round in 2014—that’s a big investment. I doubt they want to block their investment.
The Niners should cash in and trade down if Elliott is available at No. 7.
Charley Casserly, NFL.com: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame
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In his latest mock draft, NFL.com draft analyst Charley Casserly picked Notre Dame offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley for the 49ers.
“When they were good, they were dominant on the offensive line,” Casserly noted. “Trent Baalke believes in a strong OL. Some people like Stanley better than [Laremy] Tunsil.”
Baalke may be one of those people. According to WalterFootball.com's Walter Cherepinsky, Stanley is the only offensive tackle projected to be picked in Round 1 that the 49ers have met with.
Why might the Niners target Stanley? Maybe they feel he has more potential to improve than any other tackle. Stanley has rare physical traits, like quick feet and extremely long 35 5/8-inch arms, per NFL.com. The Niners love linemen with long arms.
The team could play Stanley at right tackle for the first few seasons of his career and eventually move him to left tackle when Joe Staley moves on.
Stanley would be a good choice for the Niners at No. 7.
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