Assessing Legitimate MLB Contenders' Postseason Chances Early in 2016
While the 2016 MLB regular season isn't yet one month old, it's never too early to jump to conclusions about the action we've seen unfold before us.
Some teams, such as the Colorado Rockies, have enjoyed a hot start and exceeded expectations, while others, such as the Houston Astros, have struggled.
Can the Rockies sustain their hot start? Are the Astros really a non-contender? These are the questions we're here to answer.
After crunching the numbers, assessing rosters and the landscapes around each team, we have a pretty good idea which clubs have a chance of contending and which are merely pretending to be contenders.
We'll assign each of our legitimate contenders a percentage chance of making the postseason based on all those factors, with no team receiving anything higher than 75 percent. Why? Because there's simply too much baseball left to be played—and too much time for injuries to flip everything upside down.
Honorable Mention (The Non-Contenders)
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Technically, every team in baseball still has a chance to reach the playoffs—it's far too early in the season for anyone to have been mathematically eliminated from contention. But it's hard to envision any of these clubs as serious contenders for a variety of reasons, which we'll touch on below.
American League
Los Angeles Angels: It's always risky to count out a team that features a generational talent like Mike Trout and a future Hall of Fame inductee in Albert Pujols, but a shaky rotation that lacks depth and holes at both second base and in left field make it nearly impossible to view the Angels as a legitimate contender.
Minnesota Twins: An over-reliance on relatively unproven youngsters (Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano) and a shaky bullpen keep Minnesota from contending.
Oakland Athletics: Sonny Gray fronts a rotation with some intriguing young arms (Chris Bassitt and Kendall Graveman), but a slipshod lineup that lacks a true game-changer limits the A's from doing serious damage in the AL West.
Seattle Mariners: Every year, Seattle gets pegged a sleeper contender, and every year it falls short. There's no reason to believe this season will be any different, especially with the Mariners facing baseball's toughest first-half schedule, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.
Tampa Bay Rays: A quality rotation led by possible future Cy Young Award winner Chris Archer isn't enough to make up for one of baseball's least productive lineups, leaving the Rays on the outside of the playoff race.
National League
Atlanta Braves: Atlanta's future is bright but still a few years away. There is a lot of intriguing pitching down on the farm, but not so much in the big league rotation.
Cincinnati Reds: There's talent in both the lineup and rotation, but not enough for the Reds to hang with the likes of Chicago, Pittsburgh and St. Louis in the NL Central.
Colorado Rockies: Tied for first place with Los Angeles in the NL West, Colorado's rotation isn't as bad as it's been in years past. But it's still not good enough to keep the Rockies in contention for long.
Miami Marlins: Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton will keep the Marlins relevant, but Miami doesn't have enough firepower to hang with the National League's elite. It will play spoiler down the stretch, however.
Milwaukee Brewers: The two biggest stories in Milwaukee this season will be what the Brewers ultimately receive in exchange for All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who will be traded, and the big league debut of shortstop Orlando Arcia. The rebuilding club is still years away from contending.
Philadelphia Phillies: There's a lot to be excited about in Philly, especially on the mound, but the Phillies are still years away from contending in the NL East, much less for a pennant or World Series crown.
San Diego Padres: A mediocre offense, mediocre rotation and, you guessed it, mediocre bullpen make San Diego an afterthought in the playoff picture.
Arizona Diamondbacks
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Zack Greinke finally delivered a Greinke-like performance his last time on the hill, tossing 7.1 innings of two-run ball against San Diego, but Arizona's other big offseason addition, Shelby Miller, has been dreadful through three starts (8.53 ERA, 1.82 WHIP).
That's a major problem for a team that, after Greinke, Robbie Ray and Patrick Corbin, is short on quality starters and has traded away much of its minor league depth on the mound.
Another problem for Arizona is the loss of center fielder A.J. Pollock to a broken elbow, perhaps for the season. It's a blow from which the Diamondbacks may not be able to recover, having traded away Ender Inciarte in the Miller deal and with neither Socrates Brito nor Chris Owings up to the task of replacing him.
Playoff Chances: 25 percent
Baltimore Orioles
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So far, Baltimore's strategy of slugging its way to the postseason has been a rousing success, with the Orioles leading the American League in home runs (25) and slugging percentage (.531, tops in all of baseball). Most importantly, they're second in winning percentage (.667).
With an upcoming three-week stretch (April 28 to May 19) that finds the Orioles playing 17 of 20 games at home, it would be foolish to believe their winning ways are going to stop anytime soon.
But the starting rotation is a mess, the bullpen is overworked, and the team's defense, outside of Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy, has been awful. None of that bodes well for sustained success over the course of a 162-game season.
Playoff Chances: 35 percent
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Boston Red Sox
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Aside from a rough start against Baltimore his second time out for Boston, David Price's arrival has gone a long way toward fixing what ailed the Red Sox rotation in 2015. That said, the team could still use another durable, reliable veteran arm to plug in behind him.
Thankfully for Boston (and unfortunately for the rest of the AL), president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski isn't afraid to make a deal, and he has the finances and prospects to do just that if and when the opportunity arises.
Playoff Chances: 50 percent
Chicago Cubs
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Most teams wouldn't be able to recover from the loss of a major run producer like Kyle Schwarber. But the Chicago Cubs can. They merely slid another big-time talent, Jorge Soler, back into the everyday lineup to replace the sophomore slugger.
With a roster as deep as any you'll find in baseball—one that was bolstered by the offseason additions of Jason Heyward, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist—the Cubs sit with baseball's best record (11-3), an offense that ranks second in runs scored and a rotation that ranks second in ERA (2.14).
Solid at every position and able to add reinforcements if necessary, Chicago would have to undergo a massive collapse to not reach the playoffs for the second consecutive season.
Playoff Chances: 75 percent
Chicago White Sox
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We knew Chicago's rotation was good heading into the season, but nobody could have predicted it would be this good. White Sox starters have pitched to a combined 3.12 ERA, baseball's seventh-lowest mark (third-best in the American League), led by the resurgent Mat Latos (3-0, 0.49 ERA).
That pitching, along with excellent defense, has helped the White Sox to stay just a half-game back of Kansas City in the AL Central despite an offense that has struggled to put runs on the board.
Todd Frazier, the team's biggest offseason addition, has struggled, hitting only .182 with a 67 wRC+ that ranks 25th among 27 qualified third basemen. Eventually, his bat is going to wake up—and the White Sox will be more dangerous as a result.
Playoff Chances: 45 percent
Cleveland Indians
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It's a different year but the same story in Cleveland, where the Indians have a tremendous rotation, a mediocre offense and all the makings of a .500 team.
A healthy Michael Brantley (shoulder) will give the lineup a much-needed boost and, along with Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor, provide the Tribe with a potent trio in the middle of the order. But the rest of the lineup is underwhelming, with Carlos Santana (.154 BA, 71 wRC+) off to a miserable start.
With no help in sight from the farm and little in the way of resources to add an impact bat, the Indians likely won't finish higher than third in the division and will be in the middle of a crowded pack vying for a wild-card berth.
Playoff Chances: 25 percent
Detroit Tigers
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Remove Jordan Zimmermann's 13 scoreless innings from the equation, and Detroit's rotation sits with a 6.28 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. That's a problem, especially with only one potential impact arm (Michael Fulmer) biding his time at Triple-A.
We saw last year how ineffective Detroit's offense can be when it loses one of its key pieces for a significant period of time, and while the addition of Justin Upton helps, the Tigers lack a legitimate replacement for any of their everyday players.
If the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez and Justin Verlander can stay healthy, the Tigers will be in the playoff hunt well into September. But a lack of overall depth is a concern for a team that boasts a roster that carries baseball's third-oldest average age, per ESPN.com.
Playoff Chances: 40 percent
Houston Astros
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One of baseball's biggest surprises a year ago, Houston has stumbled out of the gate in 2016.
The rotation, outside of ace Dallas Keuchel, has struggled, with Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers and Doug Fister all posting an ERA above 6.00. Reinforcements are on the way, however, as the Houston Chronicle's Angel Verdejo Jr. reports that Lance McCullers Jr. has taken another step toward his return from a sore shoulder.
Reliever Ken Giles, the team's most notable offseason addition, seems to be getting himself back on track after a rough start to his career in Houston, throwing a pair of scoreless innings against Detroit in back-to-back games.
A healthy McCullers and sharper Giles will go a long way toward fixing what ails the Astros, who remain a legitimate threat to win their first division crown since 2001.
Playoff Chances: 35 percent
Kansas City Royals
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Kansas City doesn't have baseball's most potent offense, best rotation or most dominant bullpen. But the defending World Series champs still have a phenomenal defense and do all the little things needed to win games. While it's not always pretty, it's a formula that finds the Royals winning more often than not.
The return of the speedy Jarrod Dyson should help to shore up right field, which was a weak spot offensively for the club, while Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon, hitting .213 and .222, respectively, have yet to get going.
Once they do, the Royals will begin to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack in the AL Central.
Playoff Chances: 65 percent
Los Angeles Dodgers
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While questions remain about the back end of Los Angeles' rotation, Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling have done an excellent job of holding things down for the Dodgers thus far. Despite poor showings from Scott Kazmir and Alex Wood, the group has baseball's fourth-lowest ERA (2.88).
Perhaps the most important development in Los Angeles thus far has been the resurgence of outfielder Yasiel Puig under new manager Dave Roberts. As Bleacher Report's Scott Miller reported earlier this month, the 25-year-old seems to be more at ease than he has been in the past—and it shows in his play.
While four extra-base hits and five RBI in 14 games may not jump off the page, Puig has a gaudy .347/.429./.510 triple-slash line, and his renewed focus has him playing the best defense of his career.
If Puig can stay locked in and the Dodgers begin to get some of their injured starting pitchers back—a list that includes Brett Anderson, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon McCarthy and Frankie Montas—the race for the NL West crown may not be much of a race at all.
Playoff Chances: 60 percent
New York Mets
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How good is New York's starting rotation? Consider this: Mets starters have pitched to baseball's third-lowest ERA (2.87) despite Matt Harvey's struggles. The Dark Knight has pitched to a 5.71 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, walking nearly as many batters (seven) as he's struck out (nine).
The good news is neither Harvey nor pitching coach Dan Warthen believes his issues are a result of an injury, just flawed mechanics. As Warthen told ESPN.com's Adam Rubin, Harvey is putting too much pressure on himself to be perfect.
“I thought he was going to have a big year,” Warthen said. “I still think he’s going to have a big, big year. I think right now, if we’ve ever seen Matt Harvey press, this might be the time. I mean, he’s trying to force the issue right now.”
With or without Harvey at his best, the Mets still have the pieces to successfully defend their National League pennant. Michael Conforto has taken the next step in his development and looks the part of a No. 3 hitter, while newcomers Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker have fit seamlessly into the team's lineup.
Playoff Chances: 55 percent
New York Yankees
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We're going to operate under the assumption that the New York Yankees will continue sticking to their goal of getting younger, more athletic and under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold, which, while it's the right move, limits their chances of reaching the postseason.
Even with what figures to be baseball's best late-inning trio (Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller), there are too many questions surrounding a shaky but talented rotation to overcome.
Luis Severino looks like a future ace, but he's not there yet. Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia have all missed significant time in the past due to injury. Ivan Nova looks lost, and Nathan Eovaldi has suddenly become home run-prone, allowing four round-trippers in 11.2 innings of work.
The Yankees will stay in the hunt for a playoff spot because they're too talented not to, but there's just not enough here to overtake Boston and Toronto in the AL East. Should they decide to stray from their plan, however, all bets are off, as the Yankees have the finances and prospects to add significant pieces.
Playoff Chances: 30 percent
Pittsburgh Pirates
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You won't find a better outfield in baseball than Pittsburgh's, with Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco not only one of baseball's most productive outfield trios at the plate but in the field as well.
That defense has been even more important than usual with starters Gerrit Cole (4.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) and Francisco Liriano (4.11 ERA, 1.83 WHIP) slow to round into midseason form. For the first time in a while, the Pirates have pitching help on the way, with top prospect Tyler Glasnow nearly ready for his debut.
Pittsburgh isn't going to overpower anyone, but the Pirates remain well equipped to battle the Cubs and Cardinals for NL Central supremacy, with the two runners-up sure to be in the thick of the NL wild-card race.
Playoff Chances: 50 percent
San Francisco Giants
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Perhaps we should completely ignore San Francisco's pedestrian start to the regular season, since the Giants have a nasty habit of making people look foolish for doubting them in even years.
But it's hard to ignore the starting rotation's 5.13 ERA—baseball's sixth-highest mark, one that's nearly equal to Colorado's (5.16). Much of the blame lies with holdovers Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and Jake Peavy, who have posted a combined 6.55 ERA.
Even if Bumgarner starts to come around (and there's no reason to believe he won't), the back end of the rotation remains shaky at best—and the Giants lack any significant rotation depth.
Playoff Chances: 45 percent
St. Louis Cardinals
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All seven of St. Louis' losses have come against division foes—Chicago (0-2), Cincinnati (2-1), Milwaukee (2-1) and Pittsburgh (0-3)—teams that it went a combined 46-30 against a year ago, per ESPN.com. While the Cardinals lead baseball with 86 runs scored, their offense hasn't been good when it truly matters.
"So far, the Cardinals have proved only that they can hit subpar pitching, not the good stuff," wrote ESPN.com's Mark Saxon. "They have struck out 62 times in five games against the Cubs and Pirates and 62 times in the nine games against everybody else."
It seems like every year someone predicts this team's demise and, every year, the Cardinals prove their detractors wrong, getting big-time contributions from unlikely places. That hasn't changed, with Aledmys Diaz and Jeremy Hazelbaker playing the part of surprising early-season contributors.
That said, it's been a while since the Cardinals have looked quite as vulnerable as they do this year. With the Cubs looking like a juggernaut, St. Louis' three-year run as division champs may be coming to an end. But that only makes the Cardinals a heavy favorite to claim one of the two available wild-card berths.
Playoff Chances: 50 percent
Texas Rangers
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The only team in the AL West with a positive run differential (plus-six), Texas has jumped out to an early division lead despite getting little production from key pieces of the lineup. Prince Fielder, Ian Desmond and the injured Shin-Soo Choo are all hitting below .200, while Josh Hamilton has yet to play.
But whereas injuries have devastated the Rangers in years past, they're presenting new opportunities in 2016.
Top prospect Nomar Mazara has been on fire since replacing Choo in the lineup, hitting .414 with a 1.009 OPS and a team-record 12 hits in his first seven career games, per the Rangers (via Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram).
With Yu Darvish inching closer to a return from Tommy John surgery, the rotation will soon get a significant boost and, as a result, should take some pressure off what has been a largely ineffective bullpen.
Texas is far from a team without flaws, but there's more than enough here for the Rangers to emerge as the winners of a mediocre division.
Playoff Chances: 55 percent
Toronto Blue Jays
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Toronto's lineup hasn't been quite as explosive as it was a season ago, but the Blue Jays are still putting their fair share of runs on the board, sitting fourth in the AL with 60 runs scored.
"We're still waiting for our offence to erupt. But it will," manager John Gibbons told the Canadian Press (via TSN). And he's right.
Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki are hitting a combined .143 (14-for-98) with three extra-base hits and 11 RBI, while Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have hit for average but little power. They have a combined five home runs between them, well off last year's combined 79 home runs.
That's not going to last much longer.
A return to their mashing ways, coupled with an improved rotation thanks to the continued development of youngsters Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman and a retooled bullpen, will have the Blue Jays back on top of the AL East before too long.
Playoff Chances: 60 percent
Washington Nationals
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Washington has taken to new manager Dusty Baker about as well as anyone could have expected, going 10-3 in his first 13 games at the helm and looking much like the juggernaut that was supposed to run away with the NL East a season ago.
Bryce Harper, the National League's reigning MVP, looks even better than he did in 2015 and has more home runs (seven) than strikeouts (six) thus far. Daniel Murphy has been a massive upgrade offensively at second base, and the team's pitching staff, led by Max Scherzer, remains one of the game's best.
The Nationals are also significantly deeper than they were a season ago, with top prospects Trea Turner and Lucas Giolito biding their time in the high minors. They are ready to provide upgrades at shortstop and in the rotation, respectively, when needed.
Playoff Chances: 60 percent
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and current through April 19. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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