Playing 'Reality or Mirage' with MLB's Biggest 2016 Week 1 Performances
Let the overreactions begin.
Fantasy baseball fiends who spent months waiting for Opening Day will let the excitement of MLB's return get the best of them. After a grueling process of projecting 2016 stats, they now have a week's worth of numbers to scrutinize.
Unfortunately, that's not a significant sample size. Using a few games as evidence of fundamental change could cause costly decisions from eager gamers. Remember when Freddy Galvis left last April batting .355? Or the time Nick Martinez allowed one run over his first four starts?
Patient player will relax and stay the course; if anything, they will exploit their zealous peers by selling high. Others will prefer to stand pat altogether to avoid making early mistakes.
Then again, some changes stick. It's hard not to get giddy about your breakout pick dominating or a hyped prospect debuting in grand fashion. Maybe it's just one week, but it could be the start of something real.
As 2016's opening week winds down, let's take a deep breath and analyze some of the hottest starts to determine if they're flukes or the new norm.
Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies
1 of 8
Stats: .333 (8-24), 6 HR, 11 RBI, 6 R, 0 SB
What an incredible week for daring drafters, Colorado Rockies fans and pun enthusiasts. Trevor Story told a tale for the ages by homering in each of his first four games, entering Sunday with an MLB-high six deep flies.
The neophyte has made the most of his audition in place of shortstop Jose Reyes. The first bomb came at Zack Greinke's expense, and Story hit just two at Coors Field. As a result, the hype train is accelerating fast.
An unpolished but hyped rookie going bonkers before pitchers make the proper adjustments? Sounds like a quintessential sell-high candidate.
During his minor league career, Story posted an alarming 26.8 strikeout percentage, and he has already whiffed seven times while drawing no walks. Expect punchouts to cause a prolonged newbie slump eventually. A career .263 minor league hitter isn't going to keep hitting above .300 against superior competition.
Even a skeptic, however, must admit that this outburst aids Story's outlook for the rest of the season. The Rockies await MLB's decision on a punishment for Reyes, but how can they bench Story now? Owner Dick Monfort isn't exactly defending his veteran employee in hopes of a quick return, instead saying "if he did something wrong, he should pay for it."
Don't sell to the highest bidder solely because some person on the Internet said to trade him. Just don't get swept up in one hot streak that is magnified because it happened at the beginning. From this point forward, getting a .250 hitter with 15 homers and steals apiece would represent a victory.
So long as he keeps playing—the change of which have vastly increased—Story is a top-15 shortstop with potential to ride this early boom into a borderline top-10 finish. See if someone else instead envisions him as an equal to the position's burgeoning crop of stars.
Verdict: Mirage
Jean Segura, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
2 of 8
Stats: .423 (11-26), 3 HR, 5 RBI, 6 R, 2 SB
While everyone rejoices over Story, another National League West shortstop enjoyed a more unlikely power tear.
In his first week with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Jean Segura clubbed three home runs—including an inside-the-park homer caused by a nasty outfield collision. He can match last season's tally by rounding the bases another three times.
The 26-year-old entered 2016 with some hype, but not because of an anticipated power uptick. Despite his career .303 on-base percentage, Arizona has slotted him into the leadoff role, a nice place to live when Paul Goldschmidt follows.
In true Segura fashion, he has yet to draw a walk in 19 plate appearances. He'll only hit for a passable average, and fantasy owners should consider themselves lucky if he sustains this power outburst enough to reach double-digit dingers in 2016.
He's a worthwhile source of stolen bases and runs, but don't assume he's a new man because of one misleading week.
Verdict: Mirage
Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners
3 of 8
Stats: .286 (6-21), 4 HR, 7 RBI, 4 R
He's no Trevor Story, but this Robinson Cano fellow may also have a future.
The star second baseman clubbed four home runs during the Seattle Mariners' first three games. Last season, he didn't accrue his fourth round-tripper until June 26.
He did, however, foreshadow a 2016 rebound by going bonkers in the second half. Right around that time, he said a stomach issue had sapped some of his strength, but it quickly returned. The old Cano surfaced after the All-Star break, as he batted .333/.387/.540 with 15 home runs in 70 games. He then underwent offseason surgery to repair a sports hernia, one of several ailments that hampered him in 2015.
A healthy Cano is punishing pitchers and looking to reclaim his throne as fantasy baseball's top second baseman, inherited by Jose Altuve. One of the game's most consistent stars has played at least 156 games in each of the last nine seasons, and last year's .287 average represented his first rate below .300 since 2008.
Because of his sterling stability, he's a high-end fantasy option even without elite power. Now that he looks poised to at least flirt with another 25-homer campaign, he'll end up being a bargain for anyone who stole him in the fourth or fifth round this spring.
Verdict: Real
Starlin Castro, 2B/SS, New York Yankees
4 of 8
Stats: .450 (9-20), 2 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 3 R
Given the circumstances, Starlin Castro's hot start will propel more cheers than weary eyes. Supporters can explain the 26-year-old's success as a properly timed change of scenery, especially since that shift allows him to perform in Yankee Stadium.
He also responded to a midseason benching by hitting a torrid .369 with five homers last September. FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan identified some plate adjustments that have carried over from last fall. It's easy to forget these are human beings capable of changing and improving through hard work.
Perhaps Castro is ready to realize his star ceiling.
Then again, he's still a career .282/.321/.407 hitter with a 4.9 walk percentage, and he only stole 18 bases during the last three years combined. Collecting eight RBI in three games is incredible but also unsustainable. Strolling into the batter's box with runners on base isn't a controllable skill.
So, how should fantasy gamers judge his red-hot week? The answer doesn't fit into the confines of this article structure. No, he's not going to chase a batting title or drive in 100 runs. He's also not going to stink and become waiver-wire fodder by July.
He'll make do as a starting shortstop in most leagues, and managers will fare well with him occupying a middle-infield slot. Hope for a .280 average, 15 homers, a few steals and his elderly New York Yankees teammates staying healthy.
Verdict: 40 percent real, 60 percent mirage
Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 8
Stats: .455 (10-23), 2 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, 1 SB
Anyone who owned him last year wouldn't know it, but Yasiel Puig was good at baseball back in the day.
The Cuban outfielder quickly became the toast of MLB when he hit .319/.391/.534 as a rookie. Even though his sophomore campaign felt like a letdown by comparison, a .296/.382/.480 line is still darn nice.
Yet he set career lows across the board last year, batting .255/.322/.436 in 79 games. Damning stories about his clubhouse behavior didn't help his cause either, painting him as an immature player who grew complacent.
Get ready for columns praising Puig's rededication to baseball under new Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. He displayed his immense talent over the first week, collecting 10 hits and a 1.329 OPS during five games.
The plate discipline (four walks, two strikeouts) is a tremendous sign that he's locked in at the plate. So is his placement among the early leaders in exit velocity, according to Baseball Savant. This seems like a good time to remind everyone that he's a 25-year-old who has only endured one off-year.
Puig may not provide premium power, but early trends point to him hitting closer to his career .297 average with double-digit homers and steals. Since he hasn't gone on a homer tear, see if there's still a chance to invest in a bounce-back for 80-90 cents on the dollar.
Verdict: Real
Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets
6 of 8
Stats: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 1 W
After five hapless innings in Wednesday's World Series rematch, the Kansas City Royals finally rallied to load the bases. New York Mets fans all suffered uncomfortable flashbacks of last fall, when the pesky Royals refused to stay down in the Fall Classic.
Noah Syndergaard then struck out Kendrys Morales on three pitches. Inning over.
What makes that sequence so terrifying for the opposition? The second-year starter made the designated hitter look foolish on three sliders, which hit 95, 93 and 93 mph on the radar gun. An astonished Ned Yost described his shell-shocked reaction, per the New York Post's Joel Sherman.
“There is no man alive who could have hit those three sliders [Syndergaard] threw to Morales,” Yost said. “I don’t think I have ever seen a 95 mph slider. George Brett was in here [his office] and I asked him if he could have hit that, and he said no way.”
Syndergaard finished with nine strikeouts through six scoreless frames. No team struck out fewer times than the Royals did last year, and Matt Harvey fanned them twice to begin the season. Along with his devastating slider, Thor threw his sinker at an average velocity of 98.4 mph.
Just imagine what he will do to those poor Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.
In 25 career starts, he now holds a 3.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 175 strikeouts and 32 walks in 156.1 innings. The 23-year-old may not waste any time eclipsing Harvey and Jacob deGrom as the Mets' top starter, and the massive strikeout potential makes him a worthwhile fantasy ace.
Verdict: Real
Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
7 of 8
Stats: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 8 K
On the strength of an amazing spring training, during which he allowed three runs in 20 innings with 19 strikeouts and three walks, Aaron Sanchez won a spot in the Toronto Blue Jays rotation. Spring stats typically don't matter, but drafters who were looking for a late-round upside flier made a justifiable exception.
The sizzling March carried over into April, as he hurled seven masterful frames against the Tampa Bay Rays. Is this really the same guy who amassed 61 strikeouts and 44 walks in 92.1 innings last year?
Of course, a young player is allowed to struggle before figuring things out. Command issues aside, he still owns a 2.58 ERA in 132.1 career innings, mostly padded by strong relief work.
If the hard-throwing 23-year-old keeps up his newly harnessed control, he's in store for a massive breakout, which will have cost nearly nothing for fantasy owners to enjoy. Or maybe the Rays aren't a good offense and he gets lit up inside the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.
Sorry for the cop-out, but it's too early to make a definitive conclusion. One start doesn't make him an ace, but he's someone who should be owned in all leagues. Watch his next few starts carefully.
Verdict: Inconclusive
Vince Velasquez, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
8 of 8
Stats: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K, 1 W
The Houston Astros are probably going to want a do-over on the offseason trade that sent Vince Velasquez and others to the Philadelphia Phillies for Ken Giles. In his first start with the Phillies, Velasquez registered nine strikeouts in six scoreless innings.
His Saturday night opponents, the New York Mets, are no slouches at the plate. After the All-Star break, around the time they called up Michael Conforto, welcomed back Travis d'Arnaud and acquired Yoenis Cespedes, they led the National League in weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Velasquez mowed them down anyway, carrying over a hot spring that led him to claim a rotation spot. The punchouts are no fluke; he fanned 58 batters in 55.2 MLB innings with a 10.5 swinging-strike percentage last year. A guy who misses that many bats should not remain available in over three-quarters of Yahoo Sports leagues.
But beware some discouraging factors that also won't vanish. He walked three batters, and control has always been his biggest blemish. Philadelphia also offered him no margin of error during a 1-0 victory.
The young righty is at the mercy of a poor lineup and shaky bullpen. As a 23-year-old who worked in the bullpen last year, Velasquez won't go more than six innings on a good day. Wins won't come easy, but that's also a foolish reason to avoid a talented, high-upside hurler.
Verdict: Real
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
