Fantasy Baseball 2016: 10 Undrafted Players You Should Add Before Opening Day
The draft is over. Weeks, perhaps months of copious fantasy baseball research shines through when examining the results. Yet the road to claiming a championship has only begun.
Some managers, confident of their drafted squads, will simply kick back and wait for Opening Day. That's probably better than the person who has overreacted to every spring training tidbit and already made 20 moves.
There's a happy medium in between those two extremes. Trust your drafting decisions, but don't doze off and miss major news. Those who drafted early especially must take note of players who have since bolstered their stock by earning playing time or dominating March's exhibition bouts.
Before the MLB season begins on Sunday, many owners will clear a roster spot or two once teams finally place injured players on the disabled list. Gamers stashing Michael Brantley, Jung Ho Kang, Yu Darvish or Lance McCullers get to shop around free agency.
If filling out a final bench spot, why not take an upside flier? None of these players are perfect, which is why they remain available in over 50 percent of Yahoo Sports leagues. With a strong start to 2016, that will quickly change, so pounce now before the window closes.
Honorable Mentions
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Prospect Stashes
Trea Turner, 2B, Washington Nationals
Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins
Lucas Giolito, SP, Washington Nationals
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Injury Stashes
Devon Travis, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
Jhonny Peralta, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Cameron Maybin, OF, Detroit Tigers
Jarrod Dyson, OF, Kansas City Royals
Alex Cobb, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets
Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Deep Adds
Jonathan Villar, 3B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Adonis Garcia, 3B/OF, Atlanta Braves
Keon Broxton, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Tyler Naquin, OF, Cleveland Indians
Adam Conley, SP, Miami Marlins
Sean Manaea, SP, Oakland Athletics
Mat Latos, SP, Chicago White Sox
Danny Farquhar, RP, Tampa Bay Rays
Trevor May, RP, Minnesota Twins
Mychal Givens, RP, Baltimore Orioles
10. Corey Knebel, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
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In competitive leagues, Jeremy Jeffress probably went during the later rounds. If not, somebody should have snatched up the Milwaukee Brewers reliever the second news broke of Will Smith—his prime competitor for the team's vacant closer role—tearing a knee ligament.
Spring's most intriguing ninth-inning battle received clarity in an unfortunate manner. A possible committee will likely transform into Jeffress' monopoly, so the 28-year-old righty needs to be owned in all leagues. In deeper formats and/or leagues that use holds as a category, Corey Knebel also warrants a speculative add.
If the hard-throwing 24-year-old gets his hands on save opportunities, he could immediately make a Ken Giles-like impact in fantasy circles. During his rookie campaign, Knebel collected a 3.22 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 50.1 innings. A 4.03 fielding independent pitching (FIP) could scare gamers away, but his 2.85 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) speaks more fondly of his 2015 performance.
Generating plenty of ground balls and whiffs, Jeffress is well-equipped to succeed regardless of the inning he's asked to work. Grabbing Knebel isn't an indictment of the new front-runner, but rather an endorsement of the next man up's high ceiling as a top-10 fantasy reliever if he somehow seizes the role.
9. Tyler White, 1B/3B, Houston Astros
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It's time to talk about a Houston Astros first baseman who crushed minor league pitching all last season. No, not ballyhooed prospect A.J. Reed, but former 33rd-round pick Tyler White.
The 25-year-old won the starting job by mastering spring training with a .348/.436/.543 line. It shouldn't stun anyone considering he hit .325/.442/.496 in Double-A and Triple-A last year while collecting more walks (84) than strikeouts (73). He's not a flashy prospect, but he's the best guy for the job right now.
A limited power ceiling caps his fantasy potential, making him more valuable in deep mixed and American League-only formats. Yet he suspiciously holds third-base eligibility in standard Yahoo leagues, which gives him an opportunity to pull his worth at a scarcer position.
It's possible he's merely keeping first base warm for Reed, who hit .340/.432/.612 with 34 long balls last year. MLB.com's top first-base prospect, however, has still never played above Double-A. Houston has no reason to rush him up if White seizes the opportunity.
Don't go crazy and drop a proven commodity for White. In a shallow mixed league, keep him on the watch list until he earns an add. But if a possible .280, 15-homer hitter with keen plate discipline sounds useful, give White a shot. He should especially gain traction in points leagues that award walks and/or punish punchouts.
8. Juan Nicasio, SP/RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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"Spring training doesn't matter." Remind yourself every time your ace gives up a few runs. Have Bart Simpson write it repeatedly on a chalkboard to really hammer the point home. They're exhibition games. They don't matter.
But maybe they occasionally do. In an extreme case like Juan Nicasio's, March becomes impossible to ignore.
The Pittsburgh Pirates' latest reclamation project has racked up 24 strikeouts in 15 scoreless frames. Expecting to fight for a roster spot, he instead won a spot in their starting rotation over veteran Ryan Vogelsong.
Before writing his Cy Young acceptance speech, Nicasio is a 29-year-old with a career 4.88 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Yet he spent most of his career stuck with the Colorado Rockies before flashing strikeout upside in the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen last year. Besides, he wouldn't be Pittsburgh's first inspiring transformation story.
Pitching coach Ray Searage has saved careers before. Two years ago, Edinson Volquez joined the Pirates after exiting 2013 with a 5.71 ERA. In Pittsburgh the following season, he issued a career-best 3.04 ERA. Midseason acquisition J.A Happ decided some fantasy championships last year by registering a 1.85 ERA in 11 starts.
If he has truly harnessed his hard heater and sharp slider, Nicasio carries far more upside than Volquez and Happ, who both relocated to the American League after cashing in on their Pittsburgh success. This remains a long shot to pan out, so don't go overboard and drop John Lackey or Gio Gonzalez.
Just realize he's one or two strong April starts away from becoming universally owned.
7. Michael Taylor, OF, Washington Nationals
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Had the Washington Nationals not traded for Ben Revere, Michael Taylor would have frequented many sleeper lists this spring. Instead, he's fighting for playing time as the team's fourth outfielder.
He's not capitulating to the suppressed role quietly. The 25-year-old is doing everything in his power to impress new Nationals manager Dusty Baker, hitting .455/.500/.841 with four home runs and three stolen bases this spring.
According to the Washington Times' Anthony Gulizia, Baker "is dead set on finding [Taylor] at-bats in the regular season." In a radio interview with The Sports Junkies, via CBS DC's Chris Lingebach, general manager Mike Rizzo said Jayson Werth's gaudy contract "will have nothing to do with playing time."
Werth could overstay his welcome if he doesn't bounce back from a forgettable 2015. Even if Washington doesn't bench the expensive veteran, an injury could clear the logjam. Werth, now 36, has played 111 games per year since 2011.
Taylor, who hit .229/.282/.358 with a 30.9 strikeout percentage last year, is far from a finished product. Yet fantasy gamers can't ignore his enticing power and speed combination. After closing his rookie campaign with 14 homers and 16 steals, he would make a prime 20-20 candidate with an everyday gig.
He'll have a difficult time helping immediately, especially in most mixed leagues, but managers are better off chasing a skilled player needing more playing time than a regular starter lacking talent.
6. Joaquin Benoit, RP, Seattle Mariners
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Steve Cishek is the Seattle Mariners' closer. He is also coming off a terrible season in which he posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with 7.81 strikeouts and 4.39 walks per nine innings. Unless he proves 2015 a fluke, he'll lose the seat by May.
His leash is even shorter with veteran reliever Joaquin Benoit occupying a setup role. Over the last three seasons, he sported a 1.98 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. While his K/9 dropped to 8.68, his lowest clip since 2008, a 16.5 swinging-strike percentage and 67.9 contact percentage suggest an uptick rather than more regression.
Benoit is also 38 and benefited from a .182 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). One could give Seattle the benefit of the doubt and say the franchise anticipates a decline. Or better yet, maybe the organization doesn't want to handcuff its best reliever to the ninth inning when he's usually needed earlier.
Nah, it's almost certainly because Cishek has spent more time as a closer than Benoit, who has predominantly resided and succeeded in the eighth inning. He would have earned saves for the San Diego Padres last year had they not surprisingly acquired Craig Kimbrel right before Opening Day.
This time around, he'll start without a gig but have a golden opportunity to quickly take it. If Cishek falters like he did early with the Miami Marlins last year, Benoit becomes a solid second or third fantasy stopper. In all but the shallowest of mixed leagues, he's worth employing now as a source of ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and holds for those who use the category.
5. Travis Shaw, 1B/3B, Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox stunned everyone—with exception to economists with a firm grasp on sunk costs—by deciding to bench Pablo Sandoval, per ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber. Instead of starting the third baseman owed $17 million this season, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club will let Travis Shaw man the hot corner.
Take out the uneasy feeling of paying someone millions to sit and watch, and the bold call helps Boston’s offense and fantasy managers seeking a cheap corner infielder. While the Kung Fu Panda notched a .658 OPS last season, Shaw hit a much more intriguing .270/.327/.487 with 13 homers in 248 plate appearances.
The lefty needed only two months to make his presence felt, and now he can get a full season in a potentially lethal Red Sox lineup. Be careful, however, not to prorate last year’s small sample size and anticipate 30 dingers. After all, he clobbered 21 long balls each in 2013 and 2014 through the minors.
Given his 23.0 strikeout percentage, his average is more likely to regress than improve. He’s not David Ortiz—not even the 40-year-old version—or peak Sandoval, but Shaw could hit .260 with 20 bombs. At first base, that would put him on par with Justin Bour. Yet that power stands out at third, where only 11 guys hit 20 or more homers last season.
Anyone drafting over the weekend should remember Shaw during the final rounds. Just don't pay a premium because of fresh good news.
4. Vince Velasquez, SP/RP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Just learning that the Philadelphia Phillies named Vince Velasquez their fifth starter? Don't feel bad. Per an Associated Press report, via ABCNews.com, the 23-year-old righty didn't know until seeing a notification on his phone.
"I was taking a little snooze before the game," he said. "I was unaware at the time. They didn't tell me anything."
Based on his 14 percent Yahoo ownership rate, he's not the only one snoozing through spring. Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff get the most attention from Philadelphia's young rotation, but the guy acquired from Houston possesses the highest ceiling.
Leaping from a short Double-A stint to the majors, Velasquez still accumulated 58 strikeouts in 55.2 innings, confounding MLB hitters with a 10.5 swinging-strike percentage. Unlike most hurlers, he actually performed better in the rotation than the bullpen. In seven starts, he struck out a batter per inning and netted a 3.27 FIP.
He's also a raw arm who will likely struggle with command, and extreme fly-ball tendencies could create conflict in Citizens Bank Park. Yet his elevated strikeout ceiling justifies a roster spot to fill a rotation over a boring alternative like Mike Leake or Wade Miley.
3. Alex Colome, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays
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One of 2016's first major injures, the Tampa Bay Rays' Brad Boxberger underwent core muscle surgery in mid-March. The injured closer updated his status to the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin last week.
"The better I feel, the faster it goes," Boxberger said. "They said eight weeks (from the March 17 surgery), and that's probably about right to be back here in a big league game. Those last couple of weeks will be kind of the teller of where I'm going to be as far as if I come back at eight weeks or a little bit earlier."
Per Topkin, the Rays won't name an interim closer, instead opting to adopt a committee approach. Don't be surprised if more MLB clubs infuriate fantasy owners by managing their bullpens by situation rather than defined roles.
Nevertheless, there are still saves to disperse. Danny Farquhar and Alex Colome stand out as top candidates to collect the opportunities. Farquhar, who spent part of 2013 as Seattle's closer, is a bounce-back candidate for deep-league managers to stash.
As for everyone else, go get Colome if it's not too late. (In an active league, it's probably too late.) The former starter immediately took to the bullpen, submitting a 2.66 ERA, 44 strikeouts and seven walks through 40.2 innings in 2015. During his relief work, opponents mustered a .282 slugging percentage and 20.2 hard-hit percentage.
Colome could flourish as an elite source of ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, so the possibility of saves makes him a must-own. He offers a far greater potential return on investment than J.J. Hoover, Fernando Rodney or any Phillies reliever.
2. Pedro Alvarez, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
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Searching for a free-agent slugger who looks like a solid bet to belt 25-30 homers this season? Great, but keep dreaming. There's no way a premium power source is just sitting…
Wait, Pedro Alvarez is only owned in 37 percent of Yahoo leagues? And he signed with the Baltimore Orioles, who will give him regular playing time in a favorable hitter's park? What's the catch?
Skeptics will answer that rhetorical question by citing his career .236 batting average and 29.1 strikeout percentage. Those dingers come with a price, especially for an MLB club that also must stomach his atrocious defense. He didn't remain a free agent so long because teams forgot about him.
But…power! In three full professional seasons, Alvarez has averaged 31 long balls. Baltimore can hide his glove and keep him healthy as its regular designated hitter.
It will also let the slugger loose in Camden Yards, a great stadium for a left-handed masher. As noted by ESPN.com's Tristan H. Cockcroft, only three ballparks (Miller Park, Yankee Stadium and Coors Field) were more conducive to home runs from lefties. Somewhere, Chris Davis nods in approval.
Alvarez is probably only unclaimed in standard Yahoo leagues, which are especially shallow on the offensive end. Even so, someone with a paved path to 30 deep flies needs to be accounted for across the board.
1. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers
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A highly regarded prospect who didn't immediately rake, Nick Castellanos put the pieces together during an impressive finish to his sophomore season. Either nobody noticed or nobody cares.
Lauded as a future .300, 20-homer hitter, the third baseman instead holds a career .257/.304/.405 line. It took him two years and 1,192 plate appearances to amass 26 long balls. Some readers just fell asleep reading those last two sentences.
Wake up. From July 1 onward, he batted .274/.326/.481 with 11 home runs. His line-drive and hard-hit rates spiked from 20.0 and 30.9 to 27.7 and 35.3, respectively, after the All-Star break. There's the sharp contact scouts anticipated all along.
The Detroit Tigers played him every day despite his struggles at the plate and hot corner. Now that the 24-year-old finally showed a pulse, they won't abandon him.
This means regular reps, potentially behind Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez in the batting order. He drove in 73 runs during a subpar season. If his late progress sticks, he could easily deliver 80-plus RBI along with 20 dingers and a solid batting average.
Third base dries up quickly after the top tier, so Castellanos is someone to own even in a 10- or 12-team mixed league.
All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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