Finding Best Fits for 2016 NFL Draft's Top Quarterbacks
Drafting a quarterback is not just about need. It’s about fit. Since they're in the most difficult position to transition from college to the pros, quarterbacks need offenses catered to their skill sets, coaching staffs willing to develop them and teammate support to encourage their growth.
While the 2016 NFL draft quarterback class doesn’t offer talents on par with Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, it has eight to 10 passers with the upside to grow into viable, if not high-level, NFL starters. But their success is predicated on landing in the right system. Landing in a situation that isn’t best suited for the quarterback, whether it’s schematic or supporting talent, can prove to be a wasted draft pick, hurting both the franchise and passer.
While it’s unlikely these quarterback-team fits will all come to fruition, these are the landing spots that would be most conducive to each quarterback finding success in the NFL. These quarterbacks aren’t exclusively bound to these teams and could thrive elsewhere, but these player-team matches may be the best-case scenarios as franchises hope to minimize quarterback busts from the 2016 draft class.
Carson Wentz, North Dakota State: Chicago Bears
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It’s a bit unclear as to what type of offense the Bears will run, but newly promoted coordinator Dowell Loggains will probably utilize a similar offense as Adam Gase did before him: a fairly versatile offense that utilized horizontal and vertically stretching. Wentz’s size (6'5") and velocity can certainly fit into an offense that attacks the perimeter and downfield, two of his strong suits.
More importantly, the Bears should strongly consider drafting a quarterback in this draft class to take over for Jay Cutler in 2016. According to Spotrac.com, Jay Cutler would cost just $2 million on the Bears dead cap if cut after the 2016 season, which is likely worth it, given that Cutler isn’t likely their quarterback of the future. Adding the high upside yet raw Wentz may be the best for everyone involved.
Paxton Lynch, Memphis: Los Angeles Rams
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With Case Keenum and Nick Foles currently slated to battle for the starting job for the Los Angeles Rams, you don’t have to be a veteran NFL evaluator to appreciate that they could use help at the position. Neither Keenum nor Foles has proved to be a capable NFL starter, and as the team moves to Los Angeles, it will need to find a franchise face at the position.
Paxton Lynch, who is my top-ranked quarterback in the 2016 NFL draft, can work best with the talent already on the Rams roster. Running a short-area, yards-after-catch offense at Memphis, Lynch can effectively deliver catchable, on-time passes to Tavon Austin. And with Lynch's ample arm talent and vertically stretching upside, it doesn’t hurt that he’d have Todd Gurley to support the offense as he learns on the job.
Jared Goff, California: Cleveland Browns
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Hue Jackson, the new head coach and offensive mastermind of Cleveland’s offense, could go one of two directions for his Browns' offensive plan. On one hand, he could return to the vertical passing roots that he utilized when he had Carson Palmer at the helm of his Oakland Raiders offense. On the other hand, he could look to improve off his Cincinnati Bengals offense, led by Andy Dalton.
Jared Goff’s fit stems from his comparison to Andy Dalton, with the potential to improve off Jackson’s offensive limitations in Cincinnati. Goff offers a similar body type, better anticipation and less streakiness than Dalton as a quarterback, and all three traits could lead to Cleveland opting for the Cal passer. Jackson has done a great job of hiding Dalton’s good, not great, arm talent and maximizing his bigger receiver options, and it’ll take time until Jackson can build the offense enough to give Goff a fighting chance at success.
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Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: Arizona Cardinals
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With Carson Palmer set to be 37 at season's end, the Arizona Cardinals should be in the market for an heir apparent to one of the best quarterbacks in franchise history. General manager Steve Keim said as much at the NFL Scouting Combine, saying that the team has "talked about it a bunch."
“You do realize you have to find the next guy, and if you don’t find the next guy you’re not going to be in that position very long,” Keim said, per the team website.
Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians has already run a vertical passing offense, using lots of four verticals, deep post combination routes and plenty of play action. Palmer’s downfield touch and velocity have fit it well, and that’s something Hackenberg can develop into using. If there’s one solid quarterback in this class based on mechanics, arm talent, size and upside, it’s Hackenberg.
While Hackenberg has struggled since Bill O’Brien’s departure at Penn State, especially in his short-area ball placement and overall footwork development, the tools are still there for Arians to work with.
Connor Cook, Michigan State: New York Jets
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Based on the Jets' current negotiations, Ryan Fitzpatrick and New York may not want to be married together for the long term. Geno Smith has already proved he’s not the answer, and Bryce Petty remains an unknown after being a fourth-round pick a year ago.
That instability at the position could lead the Jets to consider a pro-ready option early in the draft. Cook, despite his decision-making inconsistencies, lack of top-end arm strength and character question marks, may be the 2016 class’s most pro-ready quarterback. Chan Gailey’s offense isn’t all that different from the one Cook ran at Michigan State, exploiting defenses horizontally and putting a premium on play-action success—two things Cook did well during his Michigan State tenure.
Cardale Jones, Ohio State: Pittsburgh Steelers
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It’s time for the Steelers to take Ben Roethlisberger’s backup seriously. After years of throwing out an assortment of Charlie Batch, Michael Vick and Landry Jones, it’s time to give their 34-year-old starting quarterback with ample injury history a young quarterback to take his place in case of injury.
Cardale Jones played just 11 games in his college career, winning them all yet never getting a chance to play with ideal confidence thanks to J.T. Barrett looking over his shoulder. Despite his on-field improvements as he worked through footwork issues and decision-making concerns, Jones was benched at Ohio State after a rushed set of developmental practices.
In Pittsburgh, he won’t have any pressure to start or even get on the field until at least 2019 based on Roethlisberger’s contract. That type of experience and likely spot-starter experience should be exactly what Jones needs to reach his elite upside. It doesn’t hurt that his NFL player comparison is Roethlisberger thanks to his size, mobility, strength as a runner and arm talent that can allow him to finish downfield despite being off balance.
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: San Francisco 49ers
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Assuming the 49ers don’t trade Colin Kaepernick, they won’t have a pressing need at the quarterback position. But that doesn’t mean that Chip Kelly won’t advocate for a dual-threat passer to groom behind Kaepernick and potentially take his place down the road.
Despite his recent DUI arrest, I don’t expect Prescott’s draft stock to be substantially affected as his character and leadership have always been two reasons NFL teams liked him regardless of his on-field limitations. Hailing from an offense that reminds me of Tim Tebow’s at Florida but with sprinkles of NFL progressions and in-pocket opportunities, Prescott will be a work in progress at the NFL level, and I wonder if he’ll ever be able to run more pro-style concepts. But Kelly’s offense relies on arm talent, running upside and quick decision-making—three of Prescott’s strengths as a passer within the Mississippi State offense.
Brandon Allen, Arkansas: Dallas Cowboys
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While the Cowboys likely won't target a quarterback at fourth overall, they need to add a young quarterback to keep warm behind the oft-injured Tony Romo. Dallas can’t afford another wasted season should Romo go down for a few games with the window closing on a championship run, and it’s time to subtly build for when that window eventually slams shut.
Allen isn’t a sexy quarterback pick, as he may never have top-end starter upside, but he may be one of the safer and more reliable signal-callers in this class. Despite his small hand size (8 ⅞"), Allen spins a clean ball, has managed a pro-style offense, has utilized a tight end-heavy passing attack like the Cowboys have had the last five years and has overcome adversity throughout his Arkansas career while remaining a leader.
Allen is a safe option to be groomed behind Romo and could potentially be had for an early Day 3 pick. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is an Arkansas alum.
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