MLB's 'Moneyball' Power Rankings 2016: Who Is Overpaying/Underpaying the Most?
The Moneyball philosophy may not have resulted in a World Series title for the Oakland Athletics yet, but it undoubtedly had an impact on the way teams are assembled throughout the league.
Whether we're talking about a small-market team facing a payroll crunch or a large-market team with a seemingly endless payroll stream, baseball is still a business.
At the end of the day, it's all about getting the most value out of your players when it comes to assembling an MLB roster, whether it's pre-arbitration players contributing at a young age or big-money stars living up to their lofty paychecks.
So with parity reigning and the playing field as level as ever around the league, which team is truly getting the most bang for its buck?
Explanation
1 of 33
There are a lot of numbers and names to digest on the pages that follow, so allow me to first offer an explanation of what everything means.
The following slides are broken into four sections:
- 2016 Payroll Projections
At the top of each slide, you will find each team's projected 2016 payroll courtesy of Roster Resource, as well as where that payroll ranks among all 30 MLB teams.
- Pre-Arbitration Players
Below that is a bulleted list of key pre-arbitration players, followed by a quick list of any other notable players who fall into that category.
This part was the first big determining factor in where each team was ranked. Considering most of the players listed here will be making somewhere between $500,000 and $600,000 during the upcoming season, these are often the biggest values on the roster.
- Top 3 Best/Worst Values
Next up, you'll find each team's three most and least valuable players for the upcoming season, based on the following three-step process.
Step 1: To start, I took each player's projected WAR for the upcoming season. My personal preference is the ZiPS projections from Dan Szymborski, which can be found here. Those projections will be referenced as zWAR throughout the piece and will always refer back to the respective team pages on the FanGraphs site.
Step 2: Based on the FanGraphs value system, 1.0 WAR was worth around $8 million in 2015.
So from there, each player's projected zWAR from Step 1 was multiplied by eight. That gave us the player's projected 2016 value in millions of dollars.
Step 3: Each player's salary for the 2016 season was then subtracted from his projected 2016 value, resulting in his 2016 net value.
The three highest and three lowest totals were then highlighted on a pair of tables. Player salaries came again from the team pages of Roster Resource.
Formula: (2016 zWAR x 8) - 2016 salary = net value
It's important to note that pre-arbitration players were not considered for this section. Any player from that group who makes any sort of impact will be a bargain; that's why those players were highlighted at the beginning.
In the case of a tie for one of the top three spots, the player with the higher projected WAR was chosen in the case of best value, and the player with the higher salary was chosen in the case of worst value.
- Notes
Since this was such a statistic-heavy article, and there was already a lot to digest on each slide, my personal analysis was kept to a minimum. There are just a few bulletted points for each team consisting of notable observations made while compiling the article.
If you're still reading at this point, props to you. You'll no doubt have a better understanding of what's to come.
30. New York Yankees
2 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $218,949,857 (2nd in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Luis Severino
- RP Dellin Betances
- OF Aaron Hicks
Others: C Gary Sanchez, RP Chasen Shreve, IF Rob Refsnyder
3 Best Values
| SS Didi Gregorius | 2.4 | $19.2M | $2.425M | $16.775M |
| SP Michael Pineda | 2.0 | $16.0M | $4.3M | $11.7M |
| 2B Starlin Castro | 2.2 | $17.6M | $7.857M | $9.743M |
3 Worst Values
| SP CC Sabathia | 0.2 | $1.6M | $25.0M | -$23.4M |
| RF Carlos Beltran | 0.3 | $2.4M | $15.0M | -$12.6M |
| 1B Mark Teixeira | 1.5 | $12.0M | $23.125M | -$11.125M |
Notes
- Would you look at that: 40-year-old Alex Rodriguez and his $21 million salary is not one of the three worst values on the Yankees. Who would have ever guessed that would be the case two years ago while he was serving his season-long suspension?
- The new middle infield duo of Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius projects to be worth a plus-$26.518 million net value.
- Catcher Brian McCann leads the team with a projected 3.1 zWAR, giving him a plus-$7.8 million net value despite his $17 million salary. He bounced back nicely last season with a .756 OPS, 26 home runs and 94 RBI.
- The team's three worst values are making a combined $63.125 million this coming season, and all three are coming off the books next offseason, so look for the Yankees to climb up these rankings next winter.
29. Philadelphia Phillies
3 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $104,516,667 (21st in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- 3B Maikel Franco
- SP Aaron Nola
- OF Odubel Herrera
Others: LF Cody Asche, OF Aaron Altherr, SP Jerad Eickhoff, IF Cesar Hernandez, C Cameron Rupp, SP Vincent Velasquez, SP Brett Oberholtzer, RP Luis Garcia, RP Dalier Hinojosa
3 Best Values
| SS Freddy Galvis | 0.9 | $7.2M | $2.0M | $5.2M |
| OF Peter Bourjos | 0.5 | $4.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M |
| IF Andres Blanco | 0.3 | $2.4M | $1.45M | $0.95M |
3 Worst Values
| 1B Ryan Howard | -0.7 | -$5.6M | $25.0M | -$30.6M |
| SP Matt Harrison | 0.1 | $0.8M | $13.2M | -$12.4M |
| RP David Hernandez | 0.0 | $0.0M | $3.9M | -$3.9M |
Notes
- Ryan Howard ($25M), Matt Harrison ($13.2M) and Carlos Ruiz ($8.5M) account for roughly 44.7 percent of the team's payroll this coming season, and they're projected for a minus-$46.7 million net value.
- The three positive net values listed above are the only three on the roster among the 12 players who are post-arbitration.
- However, Odubel Herrera (2.8 zWAR), J.P. Crawford (2.6 zWAR), Maikel Franco (2.3 zWAR), Aaron Nola (1.8 zWAR) and Aaron Altherr (1.6 zWAR) are projected to be the five most valuable players on the roster, and all five are pre-arbitration.
- It speaks to a franchise in transition when the team's best value in shortstop Freddy Galvis will likely lose his job by midseason to the aforementioned Crawford.
28. Milwaukee Brewers
4 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $63,425,000 (30th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Jimmy Nelson
- SP Taylor Jungmann
- 2B Scooter Gennett
Others: RF Domingo Santana, SP Chase Anderson, SP Zach Davis, RP Corey Knebel, RP Jeremy Jeffress, RP Tyler Thornburg, RP Michael Blazek, SS Jonathan Villar, OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
3 Best Values
| C Jonathan Lucroy | 3.3 | $26.4M | $4.1M | $22.3M |
| 1B Chris Carter | 1.9 | $15.2M | $2.5M | $12.7M |
| RP Will Smith | 1.0 | $8.0M | $1.475M | $6.525M |
3 Worst Values
| SP Matt Garza | 1.1 | $8.8M | $12.5M | -$3.7M |
| LF Ryan Braun | 2.7 | $21.6M | $20.0M | $1.6M |
| IF Aaron Hill | 1.0 | $8.0M | $5.5M | $2.5M |
Notes
- The Brewers have only eight players in the organization right now who are not either pre-arbitration or in spring camp as non-roster invitees, as they've traded the likes of Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Lind and Jean Segura.
- Ryan Braun (+$1.6M) and Matt Garza (-$3.7M) will account for 51.2 percent of the team's payroll with their $32.5 million in combined salaries.
- Slugger Chris Carter (+$12.7M) is a pleasant surprise here, as the Brewers scooped him up with a one-year, $2.5 million deal after he was non-tendered by the Houston Astros to fill the void at first base. He'll strike out a ton, but he'll also be a cheap source of power.
- The catching tandem of Jonathan Lucroy (+$22.3M) and Martin Maldonado (+$5.275M) deserves some props here, though Lucroy's days may be numbered as a valuable trade chip on a rebuilding club.
- Aaron Hill actually has a $12 million salary for 2016, but with the Diamondbacks paying $6.5 million of that, he registers as a positive value for Milwaukee.
27. Cincinnati Reds
5 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $91,531,000 (25th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- CF Billy Hamilton
- SP Anthony DeSclafani
- 3B Eugenio Suarez
Others: SP Michael Lorenzen, SP Brandon Finnegan, SP John Lamb, SP Jon Moscot, RP Jumbo Diaz, RP Tony Cingrani, OF Scott Schebler, OF Adam Duvall, OF Yorman Rodriguez, IF/OF Ivan DeJesus, C Tucker Barnhart
3 Best Values
| 1B Joey Votto | 4.6 | $36.8M | $20.0M | $16.8M |
| SP Raisel Iglesias | 2.0 | $16.0M | $3.214M | $12.786M |
| SS Zack Cozart | 1.5 | $12.0M | $2.925M | $9.075M |
3 Worst Values
| SP Homer Bailey | 1.9 | $15.2M | $18.0M | -$2.8M |
| RP J.J. Hoover | 0.2 | $1.6M | $1.4M | $0.2M |
| 2B Brandon Phillips | 1.7 | $13.6M | $13.0M | $0.6M |
Notes
- The Reds have only eight players under contract in 2016 that are not pre-arbitration, and seven of them project to bring positive value. That's what a rebuilding club looks like, folks.
- Catcher Devin Mesoraco was an All-Star in 2014 when he posted an .893 OPS with 25 home runs and 80 RBI in 384 at-bats, but hip problems limited him to 23 games last year. ZiPS predicts a bounce back of sorts with a 1.1 zWAR, which would give him a plus-$3.775 million net value.
- Joey Votto is still owed $167 million over the next seven years, as his salary jumps up to $22 million in 2017 and then $25 million for the remainder of the deal. For now, though, he looks poised to once again produce beyond his $20 million salary as long as he stays healthy.
- For all that has been made of Jay Bruce's struggles the past two seasons, he's still a relatively inexpensive source of power at $12.542 million, and his 1.7 zWAR gives him a plus-$1.058 million net value.
26. Atlanta Braves
6 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $93,083,542 (24th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- CF Ender Inciarte
- SP Matt Wisler
- 2B Jace Peterson
Others: 3B Adonis Garcia, SP Williams Perez, SP Manny Banuelos, SP/RP Mike Foltynewicz, RP Ian Krol
3 Best Values
| SP Julio Teheran | 3.1 | $24.8M | $3.467M | $21.333M |
| 1B Freddie Freeman | 3.5 | $28.0M | $12.359M | $15.641M |
| C Tyler Flowers | 1.5 | $12.0M | $2.0M | $10.0M |
3 Worst Values
| RF Nick Swisher | 0.3 | $2.4M | $15.0M | -$12.6M |
| CF Michael Bourn | 0.8 | $6.4M | $14.0M | -$7.6M |
| LF Hector Olivera | 0.5 | $4.0M | $8.667M | -$4.667M |
Notes
- With Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn still on the books for a combined $29 million this coming season, the Braves payroll is higher than you might expect from a rebuilding team that has traded a number of major pieces in recent years.
- Freddie Freeman is still making a very reasonable $12.359 million this coming season, but that jumps up to $20.859 million in 2017, so this will be his final season as a huge bargain.
- ZiPS likes the chances of Julio Teheran turning in a bounce-back season after a disappointing 2015 performance, as his 3.1 zWAR would represent a return to front-line form.
- The front office did a nice job filling out the roster with good value veterans like Tyler Flowers (+$10.0M), Bud Norris (+$6.3M), Gordon Beckham (+$4.35M) and Kelly Johnson (+$1.2M). They're just placeholders for now, but should help the team maintain some level of respectability.
25. San Diego Padres
7 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $109,175,000 (18th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- 1B Wil Myers
- SP Brandon Maurer
- 2B Cory Spangenberg
Others: SP Robbie Erlin, RP Kevin Quackenbush, RP Nick Vincent, OF Jabari Blash, C Austin Hedges, OF Travis Jankowski, SP Colin Rea, C Christian Bethancourt
3 Best Values
| C Derek Norris | 2.9 | $23.2M | $2.925M | $20.275M |
| SP Tyson Ross | 3.3 | $26.4M | $9.625M | $16.775M |
| SS Alexei Ramirez | 1.7 | $13.6M | $3.0M | $10.6M |
3 Worst Values
| RF Matt Kemp | 0.7 | $5.6M | $21.75M | -$16.15M |
| CF Melvin Upton Jr. | 1.1 | $8.8M | $16.05M | -$7.25M |
| RP Fernando Rodney | -0.1 | -$0.8M | $1.6M | -$2.4M |
Notes
- Despite a relatively mediocre first season in San Diego where he posted a .709 OPS with 14 home runs and 62 RBI, ZiPS is very bullish on catcher Derek Norris, as he tops all Padres position players with a 2.9 zWAR.
- Reliever Drew Pomeranz was acquired from the Oakland A's for first baseman Yonder Alonso, and he fell just short of making the best-values list with a plus-$9.05 million net value. His ability to start and relieve could make him a valuable swingman.
- Shortstop could once again be an issue for the Padres if newcomer Alexei Ramirez continues his downward trajectory, but ZiPS likes him for a 1.7 zWAR, and that would bring plenty of positive value on his one-year, $3 million deal.
- James Shields is the second-highest paid player on the team with a $21 million salary, and he's actually projected to be worth right around that much money with a 2.6 zWAR that gives him a negligible minus-$200,000 net value.
24. Baltimore Orioles
8 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $150,008,333 (9th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Kevin Gausman
- 2B Jonathan Schoop
- C Caleb Joseph
Others: DH Jimmy Paredes, SP Dylan Bundy, RP Mychal Givens
3 Best Values
| 3B Manny Machado | 5.9 | $47.2M | $5.0M | $42.2M |
| CF Adam Jones | 3.5 | $28.0M | $16.333M | $11.667M |
| 1B Chris Davis | 3.8 | $30.4M | $23.0M | $7.4M |
3 Worst Values
| C Matt Wieters | 1.3 | $10.4M | $15.8M | -$5.4M |
| SS J.J. Hardy | 1.1 | $8.8M | $12.5M | -$3.7M |
| SP Vance Worley | -0.1 | -$0.8M | $2.6M | -$3.4M |
Notes
- Manny Machado (+$42.2M) narrowly edged out Josh Donaldson (+$41.15M) as the best value among third basemen, as the 23-year-old should far exceed his $5 million price tag in his first year of arbitration.
- The surprise decision by Matt Wieters to accept his qualifying offer leaves him as the third-highest paid player on the team and the worst overall value. In fact, backup catcher Caleb Joseph is actually projected for a slight edge in zWAR, 1.6 to 1.3.
- Chris Tillman has been the closest thing to an ace the Orioles have had in recent years, and he's still projected to more than double his $6.225 million salary in terms of value with a plus-$6.575 million net.
- The O's could lean heavily on Korean import Hyun-soo Kim, as he'll likely hit leadoff after the team's deal with Dexter Fowler fell through. His two-year, $7 million contract leaves plenty of room to provide value, and he's projected for a plus-$6.0 million net as a rookie.
23. Colorado Rockies
9 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $113,029,000 (17th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Jon Gray
- SP Chad Bettis
- 1B Ben Paulsen
Others: RP Justin Miller, IF Cristhian Adames, C Tom Murphy, RP Jairo Diaz, SP/RP Chris Rusin, SP Tyler Matzek, SP David Hale
3 Best Values
| 3B Nolan Arenado | 4.1 | $32.8M | $5.0M | $27.8M |
| CF Charlie Blackmon | 1.8 | $14.4M | $3.5M | $10.9M |
| SP Jorge De La Rosa | 2.7 | $21.6M | $12.5M | $9.1M |
3 Worst Values
| SS Jose Reyes | 1.6 | $12.8M | $22.0M | -$9.2M |
| IF Daniel Descalso | -0.5 | -$4.0M | $2.1M | -$6.1M |
| OF Brandon Barnes | -0.4 | -$3.2M | $1.0M | -$4.2M |
Notes
- Nolan Arenado (+$27.8M) is an absolute steal at $5 million in his first year of arbitration, as he'll look to duplicate a breakout 2015 that saw him post an .898 OPS with 42 home runs and 130 RBI while winning his third straight Gold Glove.
- Second baseman DJ LeMahieu added some offensive punch to his plus defense at second base, and in the process earned himself a two-year, $7.8 million deal. He checked in with a plus-$8.2 million net value.
- ZiPS has relatively high hopes in general for the Rockies rotation, which would be a welcome change. Jorge De La Rosa (2.7 zWAR), Jon Gray (2.2 zWAR), Chad Bettis (2.1 zWAR) and Jordan Lyles (1.5 zWAR) all project well.
- Jose Reyes (-$9.2M) and Carlos Gonzalez (-$3.029M) are the two highest-paid players on the roster, and they are predicted to bring minus-$12.229 million value on their $39.429 million combined salaries.
22. Detroit Tigers
10 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $201,532,500 (3rd in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- 3B Nick Castellanos
- C James McCann
- CF Anthony Gose
Others: SP Daniel Norris, RP Alex Wilson, RP Blaine Hardy, RP Bruce Rondon
3 Best Values
| RF J.D. Martinez | 4.2 | $33.6M | $6.75M | $26.85M |
| 2B Ian Kinsler | 3.5 | $28.0M | $14.0M | $14.0M |
| SS Jose Iglesias | 1.6 | $12.8M | $2.1M | $10.7M |
3 Worst Values
| DH Victor Martinez | 1.3 | $10.4M | $18.0M | -$7.6M |
| SP Justin Verlander | 2.8 | $22.4M | $28.0M | -$5.6M |
| SP Mike Pelfrey | 0.4 | $3.2M | $8.0M | -$4.8M |
Notes
- J.D. Martinez was plucked from the scrap heap on March 22 of the 2014 season, and he's piled up 9.2 WAR since. The Tigers gave him a two-year, $18.5 million extension this offseason, and even with his raise from $3 million to $6.75 million, he still runs away with top value honors.
- Miguel Cabrera is still owed $208 million over the next seven years, but for now the 32-year-old still carries a plus-$5.6 million net value.
- The Tigers shelled out $242.75 million to sign Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann this winter, and they'll make a combined $40.125 million this year. Despite that, they're projected for a combined plus-$11.075 million net value in 2016.
- One of the more underrated signings of the offseason, at least as far as this exercise is concerned, was the Tigers adding backup catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia on a one-year deal for the league minimum ($507,500). That leaves him with a plus-$9.025 million net value.
21. Boston Red Sox
11 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $194,771,428 (4th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- RF Mookie Betts
- SS Xander Bogaerts
- UT Brock Holt
Others: SP Eduardo Rodriguez, CF Jackie Bradley Jr., C Blake Swihart, RP Carson Smith, RP Tommy Layne, RP Steven Wright, 1B/3B Travis Shaw, C Christian Vazquez
3 Best Values
| SP David Price | 4.9 | $39.2M | $30.0M | $9.2M |
| SP Joe Kelly | 1.3 | $10.4M | $2.6M | $7.8M |
| DH David Ortiz | 2.3 | $18.4M | $11.0M | $7.4M |
3 Worst Values
| 1B/OF Allen Craig | -0.4 | -$3.2M | $9.0M | -$12.2M |
| 3B Pablo Sandoval | 0.9 | $7.2M | $17.6M | -$10.4 M |
| 1B Hanley Ramirez | 1.7 | $13.6 M | $22.75 M | -$9.15 M |
Notes
- Mookie Betts (5.4 zWAR) and Xander Bogaerts (3.0 zWAR) look primed to take over as the faces of the franchise for the Red Sox, and they're still playing for the minimum at this point. The same goes for left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (2.4 zWAR), who has legitimate ace potential.
- The Red Sox turned some heads with the seven-year, $217 million contract they gave David Price, but even with a $30 million salary in 2016, he still comes in as the team's best value.
- Dustin Pedroia is signed through the 2020 season, but his salary starts to decrease after topping out at $16.125 million in 2018, so it will be interesting to see how his value progresses. For now, he's still in the green with a plus-$6.875 million net.
- ZiPS is not very high on Rusney Castillo with a 0.6 zWAR, leaving him with a minus-$6.471 million net on his $11.271 million salary. He has a lot of work to do to live up to that seven-year, $72.5 million contract, but there's still time for the 28-year-old to prove himself.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers
12 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $251,429,095 (1st in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SS Corey Seager
- CF Joc Pederson
- UT Kike Hernandez
Others: SP Alex Wood, RP Yimi Garcia, RP Pedro Baez, SP Mike Bolsinger
3 Best Values
| SP Clayton Kershaw | 7.8 | $62.4M | $34.571M | $27.829M |
| SP Kenta Maeda | 3.4 | $27.2M | $3.0M | $24.2M |
| C Yasmani Grandal | 3.0 | $24.0M | $2.8M | $21.2M |
3 Worst Values
| OF Carl Crawford | 0.7 | $5.6M | $21.607M | -$16.007M |
| SS Erisbel Arruebarrena | -0.9 | -$7.2M | $5.5M | -$12.7M |
| SP Brandon McCarthy | 0.5 | $4.0M | $12.5M | -$8.5M |
Notes
- Corey Seager (3.9 zWAR) and Joc Pederson (3.1 zWAR) give the team a boost in these rankings as incredibly valuable pre-arbitration players.
- Say what you will about their ability to replace Zack Greinke, but free-agent signings Kenta Maeda (+$24.2M) and Scott Kazmir (+$10.533M), as well as a healthy Hyun-Jin Ryu (+$8.167M), all project to be great values.
- ZiPS is projecting a nice rebound season from Yasiel Puig, as he just missed cracking the best list with a plus-$20.786 million net value.
- You could argue that Michel Morse is actually the worst value here, since the Dodgers are paying the entirety of his $8.5 million salary while he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Other notables include Justin Turner (+$17.3M), Scott Van Slyke (+$16.375M) and Howie Kendrick (+$8.4M) on the positive side, and Andre Ethier (-$6.8M) on the negative side.
19. Los Angeles Angels
13 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $169,376,190 (7th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Andrew Heaney
- 1B C.J. Cron
- SP Matt Shoemaker
Others: C Carlos Perez, 2B Johnny Giavotella, SP Tyler Skaggs, RP Jose Alvarez, RP Mike Morin
3 Best Values
| CF Mike Trout | 9.3 | $74.4M | $16.083M | $58.317M |
| SP Garrett Richards | 3.8 | $30.4M | $6.425M | $23.975M |
| SS Andrelton Simmons | 3.7 | $29.6M | $6.143M | $23.457M |
3 Worst Values
| SP Jered Weaver | 0.6 | $4.8M | $20.2M | -$15.4M |
| SP C.J. Wilson | 1.2 | $9.6M | $20.5M | -$10.9M |
| RP Huston Street | 0.4 | $3.2M | $8.0M | -$4.8M |
Notes
- Despite a $10 million increase in his salary, Mike Trout still has the best net value of any player in baseball under this formula, easily beating Bruce Harper (+50.2M) for the top spot. His salary jumps up to $34.083 million in 2018, but for the next two years he's still a huge bargain.
- The three highest-paid players on the Angels are Albert Pujols (-$3.4M), C.J. Wilson (-$10.9M) and Jered Weaver (-$15.4M), who will make a combined $65.7 million for a projected minus-$29.7 million net value.
- Kole Calhoun (+$18.2M) has quietly turned himself into one of the best all-around right fielders in the American League, posting a .731 OPS with 26 home runs and 83 RBI last year while winning his first Gold Glove.
- Acquiring him may not address the team's need for offense, but slick-fielding Andrelton Simmons will be a welcome addition defensively. Even with below-average production at the plate, he should have no problem once again being a 3-4 WAR player.
18. Minnesota Twins
14 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $108,987,500 (19th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- RF Miguel Sano
- SP Kyle Gibson
- CF Byron Buxton
Others: LF Eddie Rosario, SP Tyler Duffey, RP Trevor May, IF/OF Danny Santana, OF Oswaldo Arcia
3 Best Values
| 2B Brian Dozier | 3.0 | $24.0M | $3.0M | $21.0M |
| DH Byung Ho Park | 2.3 | $18.4M | $2.75M | $15.65M |
| SS Eduardo Escobar | 1.8 | $14.4M | $2.15M | $12.25M |
3 Worst Values
| 1B Joe Mauer | 1.5 | $12.0M | $23.0M | -$11.0M |
| SP Ricky Nolasco | 0.2 | $1.6M | $12.0M | -$10.4M |
| SP Ervin Santana | 1.1 | $8.8M | $13.5M | -$4.7M |
Notes
- The four-year, $20 million extension that Brian Dozier signed last offseason will pay him just $3 million this year and maxes out at $9 million in the final year of the deal. He's a safe bet to be among the team's best values for the duration of that contract.
- Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana may not project as positive values, but the team's other big-money pitcher—at least by their standards—does, as Phil Hughes checks in with a plus-$8.4 million net value.
- The pre-arbitration outfield of Miguel Sano (3.0 zWAR), Byron Buxton (2.9 zWAR) and Eddie Rosario (1.2 zWAR) has a combined zWAR of 7.1, and it's not out of the realm of possibility to think all three could exceed their projections.
- Despite some speculation he could be dealt following the signing of Byung Ho Park, third baseman Trevor Plouffe is still around and just missed cracking the best-values list with a plus-$11.15 million net.
17. Oakland Athletics
15 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $89,646,667 (26th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Sonny Gray
- LF Khris Davis
- C Stephen Vogt
Others: SS Marcus Semien, SP Jesse Hahn, CF Billy Burns, SP Kendall Graveman, SP Chris Bassitt, RP Liam Hendriks, 1B/OF Mark Canha
3 Best Values
| RF Josh Reddick | 2.4 | $19.2M | $6.575M | $12.625M |
| 3B Danny Valencia | 1.3 | $10.4M | $3.15M | $7.25M |
| RP Sean Doolittle | 0.7 | $5.6M | $1.58M | $4.02M |
3 Worst Values
| RP Ryan Madson | 0.3 | $2.4M | $7.0M | -$4.6M |
| RP John Axford | 0.0 | $0.0M | $4.5M | -$4.5M |
| DH Billy Butler | 0.9 | $7.2M | $11.667M | -$4.467M |
Notes
- No pre-arbitration pitcher is projected for a higher zWAR than Sonny Gray at 4.9, and the organization balking at the idea of trading him this offseason is a welcome change of course for the fanbase. How long will he stick around once arbitration hits, though?
- The A's desperately needed a bullpen overhaul, and while Ryan Madson (-$4.6M) and John Axford (-$4.5M) don't project as positive values, they should help solidify what was the team's biggest weakness a year ago.
- A pair of starters trying to return from arm injuries in Henderson Alvarez (+$3.75M) and Jarrod Parker (+$3.15M) both received positive projections, and they could both be X-factors in shoring up a rotation that is up in the air behind the trio of Sonny Gray, Jesse Hahn and Rich Hill.
- Billy Butler (-$4.467M) and Coco Crisp (-$3.8M) are the only players on the team making more than $10 million this coming season, and neither projects to be worth that price tag.
16. Seattle Mariners
16 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $154,070,000 (8th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Taijuan Walker
- SS Ketel Marte
- SP Nate Karns
Others: SP/RP Mike Montgomery, SP James Paxton, 1B Jesus Montero, C Steve Clevenger, IF Shawn O'Malley, RP Tony Zych, C Mike Zunino
3 Best Values
| 3B Kyle Seager | 4.2 | $33.6M | $8.0M | $25.6M |
| CF Leonys Martin | 2.5 | $20.0M | $4.15M | $15.85M |
| SP Felix Hernandez | 4.8 | $38.4M | $25.857M | $12.543M |
3 Worst Values
| RP Ryan Cook | -0.4 | -$3.2M | $1.1M | -$4.3M |
| RP Joaquin Benoit | 0.5 | $4.0M | $7.5M | -$3.5M |
| RP Justin De Fratus | -0.1 | $-0.8M | $0.75M | -$1.55M |
Notes
- Given the money being thrown at free agents these days, the seven-year, $100 million extension signed by Kyle Seager last offseason will likely look more and more reasonable as the years go on, and it already sets him up to be a terrific bargain with an $8 million salary in 2016.
- Felix Hernandez (+$12.543M), Robinson Cano (+$7.2M), Nelson Cruz (+$8.95M) and Hisashi Iwakuma (+$7.4M) are the four highest-paid players on the roster, accounting for roughly 52 percent of the projected payroll, but all four are still predicted to provide positive value.
- ZiPS is very high on Leonys Martin with a 2.5 zWAR, considering he posted a 1.1 rWAR last season and spent time in the minors before being left off the postseason roster in Texas.
- Relievers Joaquin Benoit (-$3.5M) and Steve Cishek (-$0.8M) both grade as negative values, but they bring much-needed change to the back end of a bullpen that was among the worst in baseball last season. If they can solidify the relief corps, they'll be well worth their salaries.
15. Texas Rangers
17 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $154,070,000 (8th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- 2B Rougned Odor
- CF Delino DeShields Jr.
- RP Keone Kela
Others: RP Sam Dyson, IF Hanser Alberto, SP Nick Martinez, SP Chi Chi Gonzalez, RP Sam Freeman, 3B Joey Gallo
3 Best Values
| SP Yu Darvish | 2.9 | $23.2M | $10.0M | $13.2M |
| 3B Adrian Beltre | 3.6 | $28.8M | $18.0M | $10.8M |
| C Robinson Chirinos | 1.2 | $9.6M | $1.55M | $8.05M |
3 Worst Values
| 1B Prince Fielder | 1.4 | $11.2M | $24.0M | -$12.8M |
| RF Shin-Soo Choo | 1.9 | $15.2M | $20.0M | -$4.8M |
| SP Colby Lewis | 0.5 | $4.0M | $6.0M | -$2.0M |
Notes
- Josh Hamilton has a $26.01 million salary for 2016, but the Rangers are paying just $2 million of that, with the Los Angeles Angels picking up the rest of the bill. That actually leaves him with a plus-$2 million value in Texas.
- The catching duo of Robinson Chirinos (+$8.05M) and Chris Gimenez (+$3.025M) doesn't get much attention, but they are expected to provide terrific value.
- Yu Darvish (+$13.2M) and Cole Hamels (+$6.1M) have a chance to be among the best one-two punches in all of baseball once Darvish returns healthy, while Martin Perez (+$5.65M) should also provide positive value.
- The Rangers quietly have a terrific bullpen, with closer Shawn Tolleson (+$3.925M) and newcomer Tony Barnette (+$3.3M) both projecting for a positive value, and Keone Kela, Sam Dyson and Sam Freeman all pre-arbitration.
14. Chicago White Sox
18 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $126,301,666 (16th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Carlos Rodon
- SS Tyler Saladino
- RP Jake Petricka
Others: IF Carlos Sanchez, 3B Mike Olt, OF J.B. Shuck, SP Erik Johnson, RP Daniel Webb
3 Best Values
| SP Chris Sale | 5.9 | $47.2M | $9.15M | $38.05M |
| SP Jose Quintana | 4.1 | $32.8M | $5.4M | $27.4M |
| CF Adam Eaton | 3.2 | $25.6M | $2.75M | $22.85M |
3 Worst Values
| 1B Adam LaRoche | 0.3 | $2.4M | $13.0M | -$10.6M |
| SP John Danks | 1.0 | $8.0M | $15.75M | -$7.75M |
| SP Jacob Turner | -0.7 | -$5.6M | $1.5M | -$7.1M |
Notes
- Assuming his two option years are exercised, there are still four years and $47.15 million left on the extension that Chris Sale signed with the White Sox prior to the 2013 season. That may very well wind up being the best contract in franchise history.
- For as much attention as the Sale contract gets, and rightfully so, Jose Quintana has an equally team-friendly deal with five years and $42.25 million remaining if his two options are exercised.
- The new catching tandem of Dioner Navarro (+$7.2M) and Alex Avila (+$6.3M) will make a combined $6.5 million this season, setting them up to be a terrific value as they look to replace Tyler Flowers and Geovany Soto.
- Other notables include Todd Frazier (+$22.1M), Jose Abreu (+$13.133M), Brett Lawrie (+$10.275M) and reclamation project Mat Latos (+$6.6M), who could really help round out the rotation if he bounces back.
13. Washington Nationals
19 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $149,263,000 (11th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Joe Ross
- SP Tanner Roark
- OF Michael Taylor
Others: SS Trea Turner, RP Felipe Rivero, 1B/OF Clint Robinson
3 Best Values
| RF Bryce Harper | 6.9 | $55.2M | $5.0M | $50.2M |
| SP Max Scherzer | 6.2 | $49.6M | $22.143M | $27.457M |
| SP Stephen Strasburg | 4.5 | $36.0M | $10.4M | $25.6M |
3 Worst Values
| LF Jayson Werth | 0.5 | $4.0M | $21.57M | -$17.57M |
| 1B Ryan Zimmerman | 0.9 | $7.2M | $14.0M | -$6.8M |
| RP Jonathan Papelbon | 0.9 | $7.2M | $11.0M | -$3.8M |
Notes
- Bryce Harper could become baseball's first $400 million man when he hits free agency after the 2018 season, but for now he's the second-best value in the game behind Mike Trout.
- The Nationals' decision to heavily back-load Max Scherzer's contract keeps him among the team's best values for now, but in 2019 his salary will jump from $22.143 million to $37.406 million.
- Just how good will a healthy Stephen Strasburg be in a contract year? After disappointing for much of 2015, he finished the year with a 1.90 ERA, 0.754 WHIP and 12.5 K/9 over his final 10 starts.
- Other notables include Anthony Rendon (+$23.6M), Gio Gonzalez (+$13.5M), Wilson Ramos (+$8.25M), Ben Revere (+$7.35M) and Daniel Murphy (+$7.2M).
12. San Francisco Giants
20 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $174,586,333 (5th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- 3B Matt Duffy
- 2B Joe Panik
- SP Chris Heston
Others: RP Hunter Strickland, RP Josh Osich, C Andrew Susac, IF Kelby Tomlinson
3 Best Values
| C Buster Posey | 6.3 | $50.4M | $20.778M | $29.622M |
| SP Madison Bumgarner | 4.8 | $38.4M | $9.95M | $28.45M |
| SS Brandon Crawford | 3.5 | $28.0M | $6.0M | $22.0M |
3 Worst Values
| SP Matt Cain | 0.3 | $2.4M | $20.833M | -$18.433M |
| CF Angel Pagan | 0.4 | $3.2M | $11.25M | -$8.05M |
| RP Sergio Romo | 0.6 | $4.8M | $9.0M | -$4.2M |
Notes
- With Brandon Belt (+$13.8M) and Brandon Crawford (+$22.0M) both providing big value, and Joe Panik and Matt Duffy still pre-arbitration, that's an awfully valuable homegrown infield they've assembled in San Francisco.
- The Giants spent big to add Johnny Cueto (+$17.8M) and Jeff Samardzija (+$13.2M) to the rotation, but with back-loaded deals they should both provide plenty of positive value in their first year with the team.
- On the flip side, the bullpen trio of Sergio Romo (-$4.2M), Javier Lopez (-$4.2M) and Santiago Casilla (-$2.5M) will make a combined $20.5 million this year, and all three project to wind up in the red.
- Keep an eye on Denard Span, as that three-year, $31 million contract could be the steal of the offseason if he's over the hip issues that plagued him last year. He's projected for a plus-$16.2 million net, and he could exceed that.
11. Kansas City Royals
21 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $137,781,500 (15th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- OF Paulo Orlando
- IF Christian Colon
- RP Scott Alexander
Others: SP Brian Flynn, SP Miguel Almonte, OF Reymond Fuentes
3 Best Values
| C Salvador Perez | 3.2 | $25.6M | $2.0M | $23.6M |
| CF Lorenzo Cain | 3.6 | $28.8M | $6.5M | $22.3M |
| SP Yordano Ventura | 2.8 | $22.4M | $1.2M | $21.2M |
3 Worst Values
| 2B Omar Infante | 0.1 | $0.8M | $7.75M | -$6.95M |
| RP Luke Hochevar | 0.1 | $0.8M | $5.5M | -$4.7M |
| SP Ian Kennedy | 0.4 | $3.2M | $7.5M | -$4.3M |
Notes
- The Royals are sorely lacking in pre-arbitration talent at the big league level, but that could change with the arrivals of right-hander Kyle Zimmer and outfielder Bubba Starling at some point in 2016.
- Alex Gordon is the highest-paid player on the team with a $12 million salary, but he's projected to more than double his return with a plus-$12.8 million net value. Getting him back on a four-year, $72 million deal was one of the best bargains of the winter.
- It's a bit troubling that Ian Kennedy is already one of the team's worst values since his five-year, $70 million deal was heavily back-loaded. After making $7.5 million this year, his salary climbs to $13.5 million in 2017, $16 million in 2018 and $16.5 million in 2019 and 2020. Then again, a 0.4 zWAR seems conservative.
- Other notables include Mike Moustakas (+$14.4M), Jarrod Dyson (+$11.875M), Danny Duffy (+$10.175M), Eric Hosmer (+$8.55M), Alcides Escobar (+$7.55M), Edinson Volquez (+$7.3M) and Kelvin Herrera (+$7.05M).
10. St. Louis Cardinals
22 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $147,225,000 (12th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Carlos Martinez
- SP Michael Wacha
- RF Stephen Piscotty
Others: CF Randal Grichuk, 2B Kolten Wong, RP Kevin Siegrist, IF Greg Garcia, OF Tommy Pham, RP Tyler Lyons
3 Best Values
| 3B Matt Carpenter | 3.8 | $30.4M | $6.5M | $23.9M |
| C Yadier Molina | 3.3 | $26.4M | $14.2M | $12.2M |
| SP Adam Wainwright | 3.6 | $28.8M | $19.5M | $9.3M |
3 Worst Values
| LF Matt Holliday | 1.6 | $12.8M | $17.0M | -$4.2M |
| RP Jonathan Broxton | 0.3 | $2.4M | $3.75M | -$1.35M |
| RP Seung Hwan Oh | 0.5 | $4.0M | $5.0M | -$1.0M |
Notes
- Lance Lynn was actually projected to be the second-best value with a $7.5 million salary and a projected 3.5 zWAR, leaving him with a $20.5 million net value. However, he's slated to miss the entire season following Tommy John surgery, so he was excluded.
- That 3.3 zWAR for Yadier Molina seems generous, even if he doesn't suffer any setbacks from his offseason thumb surgeries. There's no question he's incredibly important to the team, but the 33-year-old has only been worth a combined 2.1 rWAR the past two years.
- Whether the Cardinals decide to exercise their $17 million option on Matt Holliday next winter will be one of the bigger decisions awaiting the franchise, and the continued developments of Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty will no doubt play a role.
- A lot of people called the Cardinals crazy when they gave Jhonny Peralta a four-year, $53 million deal, but he's been good for 7.5 rWAR the first two years of that deal and has a plus-$8.3 million net value for 2016.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
23 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $100,821,428 (22nd in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- RF David Peralta
- SP Robby Ray
- 3B Jake Lamb
Others: SS Nick Ahmed, IF Chris Owings, SP Archie Bradley, SP Zack Godley, RP Andrew Chafin, RP Silvino Bracho, C Tuffy Gosewisch, IF Phil Gosselin, OF Socrates Brito
3 Best Values
| 1B Paul Goldschmidt | 4.8 | $38.4M | $5.875M | $32.525M |
| CF A.J. Pollock | 4.3 | $34.4M | $3.5M | $30.9M |
| SP Shelby Miller | 3.0 | $24.0M | $4.35M | $19.65M |
3 Worst Values
| LF Yasmany Tomas | -0.1 | -$0.8M | $7.5M | -$8.3M |
| RP Brad Ziegler | 0.5 | $4.0M | $5.5M | -$1.5M |
| RP Daniel Hudson | 0.2 | $1.6M | $2.7M | -$1.1M |
Notes
- That five-year, $32.05 million extension that kicked in for Paul Goldschmidt prior to the 2014 season is a strong contender for the best contract in baseball, as it also includes a $14.5 million option for 2019 that will be a no-brainer to exercise.
- The front office bolstered the pitching staff with the additions of Zack Greinke (+$8.029M), Shelby Miller (+$19.65M) and Tyler Clippard (+$1.1M). It cost them $218.75 million and a king's ransom in prospects in the case of Miller, but it could be enough to push them into legitimate contention.
- Biggest surprise here? Josh Collmenter checking in with a plus-$10.175 million net value. He spent time as a starter, swingman and eighth-inning setup man last year and will likely fill the Swiss Army knife role once again.
- Cuban star Yasmany Tomas turned in a disappointing rookie season with a minus-1.3 rWAR, and he'll be an X-factor for the offense this year as he steps into an everyday role following the trade of Ender Inciarte.
- Other notables include Patrick Corbin (+$12.675M), Welington Castillo (+$9.9M), Jean Segura (+$8.6M) and Randall Delgado (+$7.25M).
8. Chicago Cubs
24 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $174,060,500 (6th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- 3B Kris Bryant
- SS Addison Russell
- LF Kyle Schwarber
Others: SP Kyle Hendricks, IF Javier Baez, RP Neil Ramirez, OF Matt Szczur
3 Best Values
| 1B Anthony Rizzo | 4.8 | $38.4M | $5.286M | $33.114M |
| SP Jake Arrieta | 5.4 | $43.2M | $10.7M | $32.5M |
| RF Jason Heyward | 4.7 | $37.6M | $17.5M | $20.1M |
3 Worst Values
| RP Clayton Richard | 0.1 | $0.8M | $2.0M | -$1.2M |
| RP Trevor Cahill | 0.5 | $4.0M | $4.25M | -$0.25M |
| C David Ross | 0.3 | $2.4M | $2.5M | -$0.1M |
Notes
- Few if any teams have a better pre-arbitration crop than the Chicago Cubs, with Kris Bryant (5.7 zWAR), Addison Russell (2.8 zWAR), Kyle Hendricks (2.5 zWAR) and Kyle Schwarber (2.4 zWAR) leading the way.
- Newcomers Jason Heyward (+$20.1M), Ben Zobrist (+$15.1M) and John Lackey (+$11.2M) all look like great values, despite the fact that the team spent a combined $272 million to sign that trio this winter.
- Not everyone in Chicago was a fan of the Starlin Castro (+$9.743M)-for-Adam Warren (+$13.5M) trade, but at least in terms of net value the Cubs appear to be winners for the upcoming season.
- Anthony Rizzo (+$33.114M) just barely edged out Paul Goldschmidt (+$32.525M) as the best value among first basemen.
- Even the highest-paid player on the team in Jon Lester, who will make $25 million this coming season, still brings a plus-$11.8 million net value.
- Other notables include Jorge Soler (+$5.133M), Miguel Montero (+$2.0M), Jason Hammel (+$3.8M), Travis Wood (+$5.03M), Justin Grimm (+$5.125M), Pedro Strop (+$2.2M) and Hector Rondon (+$3.0M).
7. Toronto Blue Jays
25 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $142,172,500 (13th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Marcus Stroman
- CF Kevin Pillar
- RP Roberto Osuna
Others: SP/RP Aaron Sanchez, 1B Chris Colabello, 2B Ryan Goins, 2B Devon Travis
3 Best Values
| 3B Josh Donaldson | 6.6 | $52.8M | $11.65M | $41.15M |
| RF Jose Bautista | 4.1 | $32.8M | $14.0M | $18.8M |
| DH Edwin Encarnacion | 3.3 | $26.4M | $10.0M | $16.4M |
3 Worst Values
| SP Gavin Floyd | -0.3 | -$2.4M | $1.0M | -$3.4M |
| RP Drew Storen | 0.9 | $7.2M | $8.375M | -$1.175M |
| C Josh Thole | 0.0 | $0.0M | $0.80M | -$0.80M |
Notes
- The fact that Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson will earn a combined $36.65 million in 2016 is borderline criminal, considering they combined for 120 home runs and 348 RBI last year.
- Speaking of which, what in the world was Oakland thinking with that Donaldson trade? Even with his salary climbing to $11.65 million in arbitration, he's still an absolute steal and one of the most valuable players in all of baseball. Exactly the kind of guy a small-market club should cling to.
- As good as their on-the-books contracts look, their crop of pre-arbitration players also plays a big part in them ranking this high, as Kevin Pillar (3.2 zWAR), Devon Travis (2.5 zWAR), Marcus Stroman (1.8 zWAR), Aaron Sanchez (1.2 zWAR) and Roberto Osuna (0.9 zWAR) lead that group.
- When a $1 million lottery ticket on Gavin Floyd as a reclamation project grades as your worst projected value, you're in pretty good shape as an organization.
6. New York Mets
26 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $140,650,000 (14th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Jacob deGrom
- SP Noah Syndergaard
- C Travis d'Arnaud
Others: SP Steven Matz, OF Michael Conforto, SP Zack Wheeler, IF Wilmer Flores, C Kevin Plawecki, RP Hansel Robles, RP Erik Goeddel, RP Sean Gilmartin
3 Best Values
| SP Matt Harvey | 3.9 | $31.2M | $4.325M | $26.875M |
| 1B Lucas Duda | 3.2 | $25.6M | $6.725M | $18.875M |
| CF Juan Lagares | 2.2 | $17.6M | $2.5M | $15.1M |
3 Worst Values
| RP Antonio Bastardo | 0.4 | $3.2M | $5.375M | -$2.175M |
| RP Addison Reed | 0.4 | $3.2M | $5.3M | -$2.1M |
| RP Jerry Blevins | 0.3 | $2.4M | $4.0M | -$1.6M |
Notes
- The Mets' high-powered rotation should deliver huge value. Matt Harvey (+$26.875M) is expected to far exceed his $4.325 million salary, while Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are all still playing for the minimum.
- The big names on offense also grade well, as Yoenis Cespedes (+7.7M) and Curtis Granderson (+$4.8M) both provide positive values, and David Wright (+$0.8M) is essentially a wash on his $20 million salary.
- Neil Walker (+$13.45M) and the departed Daniel Murphy (+$7.2M) will be closely compared all season, but Walker holds a fairly significant edge here in terms of net value.
- Don't read into Antonio Bastardo being the team's worst value. The Mets got him on a two-year deal after comparable free agent Tony Sipp got three years, and he fills a glaring need in the pen.
- Closer Jeurys Familia saw his salary shoot up to $4.1 million in his first year of arbitration, but he's still good for a plus-$5.5 million net value.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $71,593,334 (28th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- CF Kevin Kiermaier
- SP Jake Odorizzi
- RP Brad Boxberger
Others: OF Corey Dickerson, OF Steven Souza, SS Brad Miller, C Curt Casali, RP Alex Colome, RP Danny Farquhar, IF Tim Beckham, RP Steven Geltz, RP Xavier Cedeno
3 Best Values
| SP Chris Archer | 4.2 | $33.6M | $2.917M | $30.683M |
| SP Alex Cobb | 2.4 | $19.2M | $4.0M | $15.2M |
| 3B Evan Longoria | 3.4 | $27.2M | $12.1M | $15.1M |
3 Worst Values
| 1B James Loney | 0.0 | $0.0M | $9.667M | -$9.667M |
| DH Logan Morrison | 0.0 | $0.0M | $4.2M | -$4.2M |
| SP Matt Moore | 0.6 | $4.8M | $5.1M | -$0.3M |
Notes
- With a plus-$30.683 million net value, Chris Archer ranks third among starting pitchers behind only Chris Sale (+$38.05M) and Jake Arrieta (+$32.5M).
- Center fielder Kevin Kiermaier was tops on the team with a 4.2 zWAR, while other pre-arbitration standouts include Jake Odorizzi (3.0 zWAR), Brad Miller (2.3 zWAR), Corey Dickerson (1.3 zWAR) and Brad Boxberger (0.8 zWAR).
- ZiPS does not like the chances of Matt Moore returning to form with a 0.6 zWAR, but it does like a healthy Alex Cobb to be a key part of the rotation with a 2.4 zWAR. For the record, top prospect Blake Snell had a 1.1 zWAR, as he's expected to debut in 2016.
- Drew Smyly (+$10.65M) and Erasmo Ramirez (+$6.425M) also provide good value for the pitching-rich Rays.
- Second baseman Logan Forsythe saw his breakout season rewarded with a two-year, $10.25 million deal, and he's slated to provide a plus-$14.55 million net value on his $2.25 million salary in 2016.
4. Miami Marlins
28 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $68,827,500 (29th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- CF Marcell Ozuna
- C J.T. Realmuto
- SP Jarred Cosart
Others: 1B Justin Bour, IF Derek Dietrich, IF Miguel Rojas, OF Cole Gillespie, RP Brad Hand, RP Kyle Barraclough
3 Best Values
| RF Giancarlo Stanton | 4.9 | $39.2M | $9.0M | $30.2M |
| SP Jose Fernandez | 4.0 | $32.0M | $2.8M | $29.2M |
| LF Christian Yelich | 3.2 | $25.6M | $1.0M | $24.6M |
3 Worst Values
| OF Ichiro Suzuki | -0.5 | -$4.0 M | $2.0 M | -$6.0 M |
| C Jeff Mathis | -0.1 | -$0.8 M | $1.5 M | -$2.3 M |
| RP Bryan Morris | 0.2 | $1.6 M | $1.35 M | $0.25 M |
Notes
- The trio of Giancarlo Stanton (No. 2 RF), Jose Fernandez (No. 5 SP), Christian Yelich (No. 2 LF) and Dee Gordon (No. 3 2B) all rank among the top five bargains at their respective positions.
- Wei-Yin Chen was the team's big offseason addition on a five-year, $80 million deal, but he'll make just $6 million of that in 2016, which makes him a big-time value with a plus-$22.0 million net.
- Edwin Jackson ($6.693M) and Chris Johnson ($1.093M) will be making the league minimum from the Marlins this season while other people pay them, so anything they can provide is essentially gravy.
- Carter Capps (+$7.813M) and A.J. Ramos (+$5.4M) will duke it out for the closer's role this spring, but both will be valuable pieces regardless of what role they wind up filling.
3. Cleveland Indians
29 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $88,807,500 (27th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SS Francisco Lindor
- SP Danny Salazar
- SP Trevor Bauer
Others: CF Abraham Almonte, C Roberto Perez, IF Jose Ramirez, OF Joey Butler, RP Dan Otero, RP Shawn Armstrong, RP Kyle Crockett, SP Cody Anderson
3 Best Values
| SP Corey Kluber | 4.3 | $34.4M | $4.7M | $29.7M |
| SP Carlos Carrasco | 4.0 | $32.0M | $4.5M | $27.5M |
| LF Michael Brantley | 3.1 | $24.8M | $7.375M | $17.425M |
3 Worst Values
| RP Tommy Hunter | 0.1 | $0.8M | $2.0M | -$1.2M |
| RP Bryan Shaw | 0.2 | $1.6M | $2.75M | -$1.15M |
| RP Jeff Manship | 0.2 | $1.6M | $0.765M | $0.835M |
Notes
- The starting rotation is the Indians' biggest strength, and with Corey Kluber (+$29.7M) and Carlos Carrasco ($27.5M) both ranking among the game's most valuable pitchers and Danny Salazar (3.2 zWAR) still pre-arbitration, it's helped the small market club contend.
- Carlos Santana is the highest-paid player on the team with an $8.45 million salary, but even he projects to deliver some solid value with a plus-$6.75 million net.
- Cleveland is never one to make a splash in free agency, but the additions of Juan Uribe (+$11.2M), Rajai Davis (+$6.75M) and Mike Napoli (+$4.2M) are all solid under-the-radar moves to improve the offense.
- Francisco Lindor could have a tough time duplicating his rookie production, but ZiPS is confident he can once again be an impact player with a 3.8 zWAR.
- Other notables include Jason Kipnis (+$16.223M), Yan Gomes (+$15.017M), Lonnie Chisenhall (+$6.075M), Cody Allen (+$5.45M) and Zach McAllister (+$4.3M).
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
30 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $104,699,667 (20th in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SP Gerrit Cole
- RF Gregory Polanco
- RP Arquimedes Caminero
Others: 2B Alen Hanson, IF Pedro Florimon, RP Rob Scahill
3 Best Values
| CF Andrew McCutchen | 6.0 | $48.0M | $13.208M | $34.792M |
| LF Starling Marte | 4.0 | $32.0M | $3.333M | $28.667M |
| SS/3B Jung Ho Kang | 2.7 | $21.6M | $2.5M | $19.1M |
3 Worst Values
| RP Neftali Feliz | 0.1 | $0.8M | $3.9M | -$3.1M |
| SP Ryan Vogelsong | 0.1 | $0.8M | $2.0M | -$1.2M |
| UT Sean Rodriguez | 0.2 | $1.6M | $2.5M | -$0.9M |
Notes
- Franciso Liriano (+$14.33M) and Andrew McCutchen (+$34.792M) are the only two players on the roster making over $10 million, and it's fair to say both are vastly underpaid.
- Gerrit Cole (4.2 zWAR) trails only Sonny Gray (4.9 zWAR) in zWAR among pre-arbitration starting pitchers, and those two have a commanding lead over everyone else.
- Michael Morse grades out with a minus-$6.9 million value on his $8.5 million contract, but considering the Los Angeles Dodgers are paying the entirety of that salary, he's actually worth $1.6 million for the Pirates.
- The catching duo of Francisco Cervelli (+$16.5M) and Chris Stewart (+$3.45M) may be the best tandem in baseball, and it shows in their projected value.
- Closer Mark Melancon saw his name come up in trade talks this offseason as a result of the $9.65 million salary he'll command in his final year of arbitration, but he's still projected to finish in the green with a plus-$750,000 net value.
1. Houston Astros
31 of 33
Projected 2016 Payroll: $99,338,000 (23rd in MLB)
Notable Pre-Arbitration Players
- SS Carlos Correa
- RF George Springer
- SP Collin McHugh
Others: SP Lance McCullers, RP Ken Giles, SP Mike Fiers, OF Preston Tucker, OF Jake Marisnick, RP Will Harris
3 Best Values
| 2B Jose Altuve | 4.2 | $33.6M | $3.688M | $29.912M |
| SP Dallas Keuchel | 4.5 | $36.0M | $7.25M | $28.75M |
| CF Carlos Gomez | 3.4 | $27.2M | $9.0M | $18.2M |
3 Worst Values
| LF Colby Rasmus | 1.6 | $12.8M | $15.8M | -$3.0M |
| RP Pat Neshek | 0.5 | $4.0M | $6.5M | -$2.5M |
| SP Scott Feldman | 0.8 | $6.4M | $8.0M | -$1.6M |
Notes
- The pre-arbitration crop of Carlos Correa (4.9 zWAR), Collin McHugh (3.1 zWAR), George Springer (2.9 zWAR), Mike Fiers (1.7 zWAR) and Ken Giles (1.3 zWAR) rivals any in baseball.
- Not much is left of those Houston Astros teams that lost 100 games in three straight seasons, but one good thing that did come from that stretch was the four-year, $12.5 million extension signed by Jose Altuve that could keep him in Houston through 2019 with a pair of option years worth another $12.5 million.
- After dealing with injuries last season, a 3.4 zWAR for Carlos Gomez makes sense as a conservative projection, but we're talking about a guy who posted an 8.5 rWAR two years ago. If he's back to 100 percent, he could wind up being an even better value than expected.
- ZiPS loves first base prospect A.J. Reed, predicting a .261/.338/.456 line with 26 home runs and 84 RBI for a 2.6 zWAR.
- Catcher Jason Castro has fallen quite a ways offensively since posting an .838 OPS with 35 doubles and 18 home runs in 2013, but he still has a plus-$12.6 million net value thanks to his reasonable $5 million salary and stellar receiving skills.
All stats and rWAR totals courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
The 2016 Pre-Arbitration Team
32 of 33
Here's a look at the best pre-arbitration players, based on zWAR projections.
| RF Mookie Betts, BOS | 5.4 | $43.2 M |
| DH Corey Seager, LAD | 3.9 | $31.2 M |
| SS Carlos Correa, HOU | 4.9 | $39.2 M |
| 3B Kris Bryant, CHC | 5.7 | $45.6 M |
| 1B A.J. Reed, HOU | 2.6 | $20.8 M |
| LF Michael Conforto, NYM | 3.2 | $25.6 M |
| CF Kevin Kiermaier, TB | 4.2 | $33.6 M |
| 2B Joe Panik, SF | 2.7 | $21.6 M |
| C J.T. Realmuto, MIA | 1.8 | $14.4 M |
| SP Sonny Gray, OAK | 4.9 | $39.2 M |
| SP Gerrit Cole, PIT | 4.2 | $33.6 M |
| SP Noah Syndergaard, NYM | 3.6 | $28.8 M |
| SP Carlos Martinez, STL | 3.4 | $27.2 M |
| SP Carlos Rodon, CWS* | 3.2 | $25.6 M |
| RP Ken Giles, HOU | 1.3 | $10.4 M |
*Danny Salazar tied for the No. 5 starter spot with a 3.2 zWAR, but we'll go with Rodon to give the staff a lefty.
This group is projected for a combined zWAR of 55.0.
The 2016 All-Value Team
33 of 33
And here's a look at the best values at each position, the All-Value team, if you will.
| 2B Jose Altuve, HOU | 4.2 | $33.6 M | $3.688 M | $29.912 M |
| CF Mike Trout, LAA | 9.3 | $74.4 M | $16.083 M | $58.317 M |
| RF Bryce Harper, WAS | 6.9 | $55.2 M | $5.0 M | $50.2 M |
| DH Josh Donaldson, TOR | 6.6 | $52.8 M | $11.65 M | $41.15 M |
| 1B Anthony Rizzo, CHC | 4.8 | $38.4 M | $5.286 M | $33.114 M |
| 3B Manny Machado, BAL | 5.9 | $47.2 M | $5.0 M | $42.2 M |
| C Buster Posey, SF | 6.3 | $50.4 M | $20.778 M | $29.622 M |
| LF Starling Marte, PIT | 4.0 | $32.0 M | $3.333 M | $28.667 M |
| SS Andrelton Simmons, LAA | 3.7 | $29.6 M | $6.143 M | $23.457 M |
| SP Chris Sale, CWS | 5.9 | $47.2 M | $9.15 M | $38.05 M |
| SP Jake Arrieta, CHC | 5.4 | $43.2 M | $10.7 M | $32.5 M |
| SP Chris Archer, TB | 4.2 | $33.6 M | $2.917 M | $30.683 M |
| SP Corey Kluber, CLE | 4.3 | $34.4 M | $4.7 M | $29.7 M |
| SP Jose Fernandez, MIA | 4.0 | $32.0 M | $2.8 M | $29.2 M |
| RP Kelvin Herrera, KC | 1.2 | $9.6 M | $2.55 M | $7.05 M |
This group will cost a total of $109.778 million in 2016 and is projected for a combined zWAR of 76.7, giving it a plus-$503.822 million net value.
A grand total of 48 players checked in with a net value over plus-$20 million:
C (5): Buster Posey (+$29.622M), Salvador Perez (+$23.6M), Jonathan Lucroy (+$22.3M), Yasmani Grandal (+$21.2M), Derek Norris (+$20.275M)
1B (2): Anthony Rizzo (+$33.114M), Paul Goldschmidt (+$32.525M)
2B (2): Jose Altuve (+$29.912M), Brian Dozier (+$21.0M)
3B (7): Manny Machado (+$42.2M), Josh Donaldson (+$41.15M), Nolan Arenado (+$27.8M), Kyle Seager (+$25.6M), Matt Carpenter (+$23.9M), Anthony Rendon (+$23.6M), Todd Frazier (+$22.1M)
SS (2): Andrelton Simmons (+$23.457M), Brandon Crawford (+$22.0M)
LF (2): Starling Marte (+$28.667M), Christian Yelich (+$24.6M)
CF (5): Mike Trout (+$58.317M), Andrew McCutchen (+$24.792M), A.J. Pollock (+$30.9M), Adam Eaton (+$22.85M), Lorenzo Cain (+$22.3M)
RF (5): Bryce Harper (+$50.2M), Giancarlo Stanton (+$30.2M), J.D. Martinez (+$26.85M), Yasiel Puig (+$20.786M), Jason Heyward (+$20.1M)
RHSP (12): Jake Arrieta (+$32.5M), Chris Archer (+$30.683M), Corey Kluber (+$29.7M), Jose Fernandez (+$29.2M), Carlos Carrasco (+27.5M), Max Scherzer (+$27.457M), Matt Harvey (+$26.875M), Stephen Strasburg (+$25.6M), Kenta Maeda (+$24.2M), Garrett Richards (+$23.975M), Julio Teheran (+$21.333M), Yordano Ventura (+$21.2M)
LHSP (6): Chris Sale (+$38.05M), Dallas Keuchel (+$28.75M), Madison Bumgarner (+$28.45M), Clayton Kershaw (+$27.829M), Jose Quintana (+$27.4M), Wei-Yin Chen (+$22.0M)
