Ranking the Best Last-Minute MLB Free-Agent Values
The start of spring training is right around the corner, but a number of intriguing MLB free-agent options are still looking for new homes on the open market.
Dexter Fowler, Yovani Gallardo and Ian Desmond are the three marquee names still waiting to sign, but qualifying offers have held them back this winter.
Cuban slugger Yulieski Gourriel is another interesting name recently added to the free-agent crop after he defected, and he could be headed for a significant payday of his own once he decides on a team.
However, the focus ahead will be on the lower-level guys still seeking new contracts who are capable of providing some good value.
Players are ranked based on their expected 2016 impact relative to the salary they are likely to receive, giving us the best last-minute values in free agency.
10. SP Cliff Lee
1 of 10
2015 Stats
Injured; did not play
Overview
Cliff Lee has not pitched at the big league level since leaving in the third inning of a start on July 31, 2014 with elbow discomfort.
As many as 15 teams have shown some level of interest in him this offseason, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
However, his asking price has been somewhat high, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
"There were teams kicking around scenarios for the veteran lefty this past week, but they are unsure about devoting $6 million to $8 million, plus incentives to Lee, who hasn’t pitched in the majors for most of two seasons."
The 37-year-old Lee has indicated he would need a "perfect fit" in order to leave his family and attempt a comeback, according to Darek Braunecker of MLB Network Radio.
The left-hander was still pitching at a high level prior to the injury in 2014, going 4-5 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.377 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 in 13 starts.
Prior to that, he went 14-8 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.010 WHIP and 222 strikeouts in 222.2 innings during the 2013 season to finish sixth in National League Cy Young voting and earn a spot on the NL All-Star roster.
He's one of the more intriguing buy-low rebound options on the market this winter, and it will be interesting to see where he lands.
9. RP Matt Belisle
2 of 10
2015 Stats
| 34 | 1-1 | 7 | 2.67 | 1.455 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 33.2 | 0.8 |
Overview
The St. Louis Cardinals added Matt Belisle on a one-year, $3.5 million deal last offseason thinking they were getting one of the best workhorse relievers in the game.
Instead, he found himself on the disabled list for the first time since 2008.
The right-hander had appeared in 368 games from 2010 to 2014, second only to Tyler Clippard (371), including a league-high 80 games with the Colorado Rockies during the 2012 season.
Right elbow inflammation cost him nearly three months, though, and he returned in September to work four scoreless appearances to prove he was at least moderately healthy.
The fact that he's still on the market at this point means he'll likely need to settle for a minor league deal and a significant bump down in salary.
However, the 35-year-old is more than capable of pitching his way onto a big league roster with a strong spring if he's back to 100 percent.
8. RP Matt Thornton
3 of 10
2015 Stats
| 60 | 2-1 | 18 | 2.18 | 1.065 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 41.1 | 1.2 |
Overview
Matt Thornton was once one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball, as he posted a 2.84 ERA, 1.104 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 with the Chicago White Sox from 2008 to 2011 while making the All-Star team in 2010.
His fastball velocity topped out at 96.1 mph in 2010, and while he doesn't quite light up the radar gun to that extent anymore, he still averaged 93.5 mph during his age-38 season last year.
A 5.0 K/9 mark last year represented a career low, but he was still one of the more effective lefty setup men in the game with 18 holds and a 2.18 ERA over 60 appearances.
He's also been one of the most durable relievers in the game, appearing in at least 60 games in each of the past 10 seasons.
In fact, his 656 total appearances over that 10-year span trail only Chad Qualls (679) and Francisco Rodriguez (660) among all relievers.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote the following about his ongoing free agency:
"He’s 39, but his fastball velocity — just under 94 miles per hour last season — still makes him a viable option as a second lefty in someone’s bullpen. There are a half-dozen teams circling, according to one major league source. Thornton probably won’t get a major league deal, but he could find his way on a major league roster out of spring training.
"
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7. OF Marlon Byrd
4 of 10
2015 Stats
| 135 | .247/.290/.453 | 125 | 25 | 5 | 23 | 73 | 58 | 2 | 1.5 |
Overview
Marlon Byrd appeared to be headed for retirement in 2012 when he posted a .488 OPS in 143 at-bats before being released by the Boston Red Sox in June.
However, he has bounced back strong with a .782 OPS over the past three years, averaging 29 doubles, 24 home runs and 82 RBI in the process.
He's bounced around plenty during that span, spending time with the New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants.
He was shipped to the Giants in an August waiver deal last season, and in 39 games with the team, he tallied 12 doubles, four home runs and 31 RBI.
Despite that strong finish, the Giants declined an $8 million option on the 38-year-old, and there has been little news surrounding the veteran since.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times listed Byrd as a potential target for the Tampa Bay Rays back in January, but that was before the team acquired Corey Dickerson in a trade with the Colorado Rockies, so that may no longer be a fit.
For teams looking to add a cheap source of power and some solid outfield depth, Byrd has a chance to be a real bargain.
6. Of Ryan Raburn
5 of 10
2015 Stats
| 82 | .301/.393/.543 | 52 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 22 | 0 | 1.0 |
Overview
Among players with at least 200 plate appearances last year, here is how the top 10 in OPS shaped up:
- Bryce Harper: 1.109
- Paul Goldschmidt: 1.005
- Joey Votto: 1.000
- Mike Trout: .991
- Miguel Cabrera: .974
- Giancarlo Stanton: .952
- Josh Donaldson: .939
- Nelson Cruz: .936
- Ryan Raburn: .936
- Edwin Encarnacion: .929
Ryan Raburn hit .325/.415/.589 against left-handed pitching last season, compared to .136/.240/.227 in his 25 plate appearances against righties.
As a result, he's nothing more than a platoon option at this point, but he's an awfully good one, and the 34-year-old should be able to find a big league bench job.
The Indians' decision to decline his $3 million option in favor of a $100,000 buyout was something of a surprise, especially considering the team's struggles to find offensive production from the right side of the plate.
5. 1B/3B Pedro Alvarez
6 of 10
2015 Stats
| 150 | .243/.318/.469 | 106 | 18 | 0 | 27 | 77 | 60 | 2 | 0.1 |
Overview
Pedro Alvarez is always going to be a low-average, high-strikeout guy, but what he does bring to the table is plenty of power from the left side of the plate.
He was an All-Star and Silver Slugger winner in 2013 when he led the NL with 36 home runs, but he also paced the league with 186 strikeouts while hitting just .233.
The 29-year-old has launched 111 home runs since the start of the 2012 season to rank 11th in the league, but that didn't stop the Pirates from non-tendering him this winter due to a projected $8.1 million salary, according to MLB Trade Rumors' Matt Swartz.
He struggled defensively with the move to first base, committing 23 errors with a minus-14 DRS and minus-26.4 UZR/150.
However, he still had a strong year once again at the plate with a .787 OPS, 27 home runs and 77 RBI.
"(Agent Scott) Boras has been making the case that there is reason to expect improvement in Alvarez's defense, and if that happens, Alvarez could turn out to be a nice low-risk, high-ceiling investment for some team," wrote Buster Olney of ESPN.
Olney went on to list the Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres as five teams that could be a good fit.
4. CF Austin Jackson
7 of 10
2015 Stats
| 136 | .267/.311/.385 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 56 | 17 | 1.6 |
Overview
Austin Jackson looked like a star in the making back in 2012 when he hit .300 with an .856 OPS and 55 extra-base hits for a 5.4 WAR in his age-25 season for the Detroit Tigers.
He has failed to come close to that level of production in the years since, and now the 29-year-old finds himself simply trying to latch on with a big league club in a bench role.
Despite his regression, Jackson still possesses some useful tools, most notably his speed on the bases and his defensive abilities in the outfield.
Jackson has 49 DRS and a 2.1 UZR/150 as a center fielder in his six big league seasons, though 42 DRS came in his first two years in the league.
He may not be a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder at this point, but he's a solid defender capable of playing all three outfield spots, and there is value in that versatility.
Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com listed the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers as teams that have shown some level of interest in Jackson, while also mentioning the Chicago Cubs as potential suitors at the right price.
3. 3B Juan Uribe
8 of 10
2015 Stats
| 119 | .253/.320/.417 | 91 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 40 | 2 | 1.7 |
Overview
Juan Uribe had a strong season at the plate last year and again provided solid defense at the hot corner, but his value goes well beyond the surface statistics.
New York Mets manager Terry Collins had nothing but good things to say about his influence in the locker room after he was acquired at the trade deadline, per Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News:
"Uribe has two World Series rings. He’s made a ton of money. But he plays the game right and that’s what makes the difference in the clubhouse.
He walked in with personality, with reputation and the Latin guys flocked to him. They know him. They’ve heard of him. He’s an outgoing guy. He’s funny. I wish I could tell you some of the stuff he does. I can’t. But he’s a lot of fun to be around. People gravitate to those guys.
"
The 36-year-old has posted a .761 OPS while averaging 21 doubles, 12 home runs and 49 RBI in 378 at-bats over the past three seasons.
During that same span, he's tallied 33 DRS at third base. While he's best served as a part-time player, he's capable of stepping into an everyday role if the opportunity presents itself.
According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Indians have offered Uribe around $3 million on a one-year deal, and Cleveland appears to be his most likely landing spot at this point.
2. SP Tim Lincecum
9 of 10
2015 Stats
| 15 | 7-4 | 4.13 | 4.29 | 1.480 | 38 | 60 | 76.1 | 0.3 |
Overview
It looked like something had finally clicked for Tim Lincecum early in 2015, as the two-time Cy Young winner went 4-2 with a 2.08 ERA in his first eight starts to begin the new season.
The wheels fell off once again, though, and he posted a 7.53 ERA in his next seven starts before being shut down with a hip injury that eventually required season-ending surgery.
Lincecum has not been a quality starter since the 2011 season, going 39-42 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 106 starts and seven relief appearances over the past four years.
Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported last month that the 31-year-old was targeting an early February showcase in front of scouts.
Despite an offer from "MySpace Tom" to shell out the necessary dough to keep Lincecum in a Giants uniform, a reunion in San Francisco seems unlikely as the team already has solid rotational depth in Chris Heston.
The Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles are two potential landing spots, though that is purely speculative at this point.
In terms of upside, a healthy Lincecum is capable of being the biggest steal of the offseason.
1. 3B David Freese
10 of 10
2015 Stats
| 121 | .257/.323/.420 | 109 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 56 | 53 | 1 | 2.3 |
Overview
David Freese has had a difficult time staying healthy throughout his career, so relying on him as an everyday third baseman is tough.
However, he remains a productive run producer and an above-average option at the position when he's not on the disabled list.
Over the past five seasons, Freese has hit .273/.342/.418 while averaging 24 doubles, 13 home runs and 61 RBI in 436 at-bats.
The Cleveland Indians are one team currently looking to add a third baseman, but according to Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com, they seem to prefer Juan Uribe at this point.
A reunion with the Los Angeles Angels looked like a real possibility back in December, when the two sides were reportedly making progress on a deal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (then of CBS Sports).
They wound up going in a different direction with the addition of Yunel Escobar, and as the offseason winds down, there's really no clear fit for the 32-year-old Freese at this point.
Still, his consistent production when healthy and the limited market that should result in a rock-bottom salary earn him the No. 1 spot on this list.
All standard stats and WAR totals courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while defensive metrics come via FanGraphs.
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