Early Induction Odds for the 2017 Baseball Hall of Fame Class

There's still a year to go before MLB will announce the 2017 Baseball Hall of Fame class, but it wouldn't be the worst idea for Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero to start looking into travel arrangements in upstate New York.

After we dug through the numbers—both advanced and otherwise—and examined the recent voting trends, those are the four former big leaguers who have the best odds of making it to the Hall in 2017.

The field also includes the likes of Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez, both of whom have the numbers to cruise into Cooperstown but have been clouded by links to performance-enhancing drugs.

While the odds are still against those sluggers, the results from the 2016 vote suggest that the landscape could soon change in a big way.

The 100-1 Odds Crowd

Associated Press

Based on the numbers, Manny Ramirez is a first-ballot lock. But for the mercurial left fielder, it's not just about the numbers.

This is a diverse group.

The first part of the crowd consists of the holdovers—many of whom deserve plaques in the Hall of Very Good—but past voting history makes it clear they have little chance of clearing the 75 percent threshold.

• Jeff Kent, 2B
• Fred McGriff, 1B
• Gary Sheffield, RF
• Lee Smith, RP
• Sammy Sosa, RF
• Billy Wagner, RP
• Larry Walker, RF

The second part of the crowd is made up of the newcomers—many of whom will topple off the ballot altogether after failing to secure 5 percent of the vote.

There are also former stars like Manny Ramirez and Ivan Rodriguez whose odds of induction would be far higher if not for links to PEDs. Ramirez crushed 555 home runs and posted a staggering .996 OPS, but he also tested positive for PEDs on three occasions.

Rodriguez was a 14-time All-Star, but his reputation is also less than squeaky clean. In 2009, when asked by the Associated Press, via ESPN.com, if he was among the 104 players who tested positive for steroids during baseball's 2003 survey, he offered a non-answer: "Only God knows."

For Manny and Pudge, patience is the key word, because they are in for a wait that has no sure end.

• Danny Baez, RP
• Pat Burrell, OF
• Orlando Cabrera, SS
• Mike Cameron, CF
• J.D. Drew, RF
• Carlos Guillen, INF
• Derek Lee, 1B
• Julio Lugo, SS
• Melvin Mora, 3B
• Magglio Ordonez, RF
• Manny Ramirez, LF
• Edgar Renteria, SS
• Arthur Rhodes, RP
• Ivan Rodriguez, C
• Aaron Rowand, CF
• Freddy Sanchez, 2B
• Jason Varitek, C
• Javier Vazquez, SP
• Tim Wakefield, SP

Jorge Posada

Associated Press

Jorge Posada in front of his plaque in Monument Park after his number was retired at the beginning of 2015.

Year on Ballot: 1st

Already immortalized in the Bronx, Jorge Posada has a real chance of becoming the 17th catcher to land in Cooperstown.

A five-time World Series winner, the backstop was a stalwart for the New York Yankees during the club's most recent dynasty. The switch-hitter was also a force with the bat, posting the sixth-best OPS of any catcher since 1901, per MLB Network's Peter Gammons.

Thanks to those team and individual accolades, the outlook is promising for Posada. But like so many before him, he'll have to wait his turn.

2017 Induction Odds: 50-1

Mike Mussina

Associated Press

Even after a promising ballot, Mike Mussina has plenty of climbing to do.

Year on Ballot: 4th

2016 Percentage: 43

The good news for Mike Mussina is that his Hall candidacy is on the rise.

Per Jayson Stark of ESPN, the righty enjoyed the biggest jump of any candidate from 2015 to 2016, as his total soared by 18.4 percent.

The bad news for the five-time All-Star and six-time Gold Glover is that's he's still 32 percent short of the requisite three-quarters threshold. What's more, two starters who are still on the ballot snagged more votes than Mussina did in 2016.

2017 Induction Odds: 20-1

Edgar Martinez

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

It's no fun being a designated hitter. Just ask Edgar Martinez.

Year on Ballot: 8th

2016 Percentage: 43.4

Set to hit the ballot for the eighth time in 2017, Edgar Martinez is a veteran of the Hall of Fame voting cycle.

"For me, I am really encouraged, and thankful, in the increase of votes," Martinez told Jessamyn McIntyre of 710 ESPN Seattle after his vote total rose 16.4 percent in the latest tally. "I certainly didn’t expect to be elected today, but it is always a little disappointing when it becomes official."

Martinez will likely be disappointed again in 2017.

Among the position players who are set to grace the ballot next year, Martinez ranks fourth in OPS+ behind Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Jeff Bagwell. The problem is that it's nearly impossible to make it to the Hall as a designated hitter (only three DHs are in), and Martinez only started 560 games in the field.

2017 Induction Odds: 20-1

Barry Bonds

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Barry Bonds might still get the last laugh when it comes to the Hall.

Year on Ballot: 5th

2016 Percentage: 44.3

The election of Mike Piazza might just be the best thing that ever happened to Barry Bonds' Cooperstown candidacy. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle predicted as much in a column leading up to this year's vote.

"If Piazza gets in this year, those who shunned him because they believed he was a user might throw up their arms and endorse the Bonds-[Roger]Clemens ticket next year, thinking if one user gets in, it would be unfair to keep out others," Shea wrote.

It's still much too soon to know if Shea's theory is correct, but with six more tries on the ballot, baseball's all-time home run king still has hope.

2017 Induction Odds: 5-1

Roger Clemens

David Goldman/Associated Press

Roger Clemens is in the same spot as Barry Bonds.

Year on Ballot: 5th

2016 Percentage: 45.2

Like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens isn't exactly the most popular dude in the game.

"When you use PEDs you admit your not good enough to compete fairly! Our nations past time should have higher standards! No Clemens no Bonds!" Roy Halladay tweeted.

That's one strong take, Doc Halladay, but it remains to be seen whether the voters will uphold those standards. As is the case with Bonds, Clemens has six cracks at raising his vote total roughly 30 percent. That's a big ask, but it's also far from insurmountable.

2017 Induction Odds: 5-1

Curt Schilling

Associated Press

Curt Schilling is yet another player who earned his highest vote total ever in 2016.

Year on Ballot: 5th

2016 Percentage: 52.3

Of all the starting pitchers scheduled to be on the ballot, Curt Schilling has the best chance of gaining entrance to Cooperstown.

The owner of a shiny 11-2 record and 2.23 ERA in 19 career postseason starts and the winner of the 2001 World Series MVP award, the right-hander demonstrated a remarkable knack for dominating when the lights shined the brightest.

He was also a star during the regular season, posting the second-best WAR7 (only Roger Clemens ranks ahead of him) among all starters in next year's field.

The problem for Schilling is that while he's the most deserving starter, three holdovers snagged more votes than he did in 2016, plus one big-time newcomer stands ahead of him in the pecking order.

2017 Induction Odds: 4-1

Vladimir Guerrero

Associated Press

With a cannon of an arm and a famously violent swing, Vladimir Guerrero was flat-out fun to watch.

Year on Ballot: 1st

If there's going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer next year, that guy is going to be Vladimir Guerrero.

As Chris Cwik of the Big League Stew wrote, there was just something larger than life about the gangly right fielder:

"

Vlad also tends to take on superhuman traits when people recount stories of his play. He's one of those players where you tend to believe every insane story you hear about him.

Someone could say, "one time, Vlad threw a ball from home plate out of the ballpark" or "he once hit a home run on a pitch that bounced four times," and you might just believe it.

"

But as Cwik pointed out, a lack of longevity counts against the legendary Vlad. The Dominican's WAR7 ranks seventh in the field, and his career only spanned parts of 16 seasons.

Another looming issue for Guerrero is that he'll be jockeying for votes with a couple of position players who are veterans of the ballot in Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell.

2017 Induction Odds: 1-1

Trevor Hoffman

DENIS POROY/Associated Press

Trevor Hoffman is in a good spot.

Year on Ballot: 2nd

2016 Percentage: 67.3

Trevor Hoffman was all class after narrowly missing out on becoming a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Here's the former closer's official statement, which was released by the San Diego Padres:

"

First and foremost, I want to congratulate Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza. This is a class of tremendous players and people, both deserving of the title Hall of Famer. While the news today wasn't the news I was hoping for, I am humbled and honored to have been on the ballot and in the conversation with players of this caliber. If and when the day comes that I receive the ultimate honor in our game, I look forward to sharing it with my family, friends, teammates, the Padres organization, and most importantly, the fans.

"

The day will definitely come.

Simply put, Hoffman is one of the nastiest closers in the history of baseball. The right-hander was a seven-time All-Star, was twice the runner-up for the Cy Young Award and is second only to Mariano Rivera on the all-time saves leaderboard.

A couple of other numbers to consider? Hoffman has nine tries to add 7.3 percent of the vote.

2017 Induction Odds: 1-2

Jeff Bagwell

Pat Sullivan/Associated Press

Jeff Bagwell will soon be alongside Craig Biggio in Cooperstown.

Year on Ballot: 7th

2016 Percentage: 67.3

Fifteen votes.

That's how close Jeff Bagwell came to joining Craig Biggio as just the second Houston Astro ever to be elected to the Hall of Fame. Even after his near miss, the masher remains cautiously optimistic.

"Nothing is guaranteed, but I'm hopeful next year will be my time and I'll be prepared for that kind of day," Bagwell said, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.

Bagwell is right to like his chances. Of the position players on the ballot for 2017, only Barry Bonds has a higher WAR, and only Bonds and Manny Ramirez top him in OPS+.

Then there's the fact that all he needs is 15 more votes.

2017 Induction Odds: 1-3

Tim Raines

Associated Press

There's still one last shot for Tim Raines.

Year on Ballot: 10th

2016 Percentage: 69.8

Tim Raines shouldn't have to sweat it out like this.

After coming up 23 votes short in the most recent tally, the former table-setter will be down to his final go-around on the ballot.

That's just wrong.

Raines is fifth all-time on the stolen base chart (808), and his numbers compare favorably to those of Rickey Henderson:

• Henderson: .279/.401/.419
• Raines:  .294/.385/.425

It looks like 2017 will finally be Raines' year. As Gabe Lacques of USA Today noted, the leadoff man's vote total in 2016 (69.8 percent) was almost identical to Mike Piazza's total (69.9 percent) back in 2015.

It's not just the numbers that Raines has on his side. "And he'll also gain a boost from the sentiment of his final shot at election," Lacques wrote.

2017 Induction Odds: 1-3

Note: All stats and information about the projected 2017 Hall of Fame Class courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.