8 Top MLB Prospects Who Will Be All-Stars Within 3 Years
There was a time when it was tough for young players to rise to All-Star status, but that time is long gone. The 2015 season saw a record 20 players ages 25 and under earn All-Star nods, and it doesn't take much to guess there's more where that came from.
So that's what we're going to do.
With the 2016 season fast approaching, let's look at eight prospects who figure to be All-Stars sometime in the next three years. These aren't the only prospects who have All-Star potential, mind you, but they look like the best bets based on three things:
- Talent: because duh.
- Opportunity: They either already have MLB jobs locked up or are circling clear openings.
- Timing: The sooner a guy arrives in the majors, the more likely he is to be an All-Star by 2018.
With these parameters in mind, we can line up our eight prospects in order from the least sure to the surest thing.
Step into the box whenever you're ready.
8. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers
1 of 8
The Rangers look set at most positions, but left field is a question mark. The unbreakable very much breakable Josh Hamilton is slated as the starter. Behind him is Joey Gallo, whose immense power is often overshadowed by his nasty swing-and-miss habit.
In a related note, it doesn't look like coincidence that the Rangers made sure Nomar Mazara got some time in left field in 2015.
The $4.95 million bonus the Rangers gave Mazara in 2011 was a record for an international amateur at the time, and he's made good on the investment by becoming one of the top hitters in the minors.
He took an especially big leap in 2015, cutting down on his strikeouts and batting .296 with an .808 OPS across Double-A and Triple-A. In doing so, he caught the attention of a Rangers legend, former All-Star infielder Michael Young, who told the Dallas Morning News:
"I'm looking forward to people seeing Nomar Mazara. This guy can flat-out hit. I mean, I'm talking—not just hit—I'm talking impact, big-time run producer in the game. Great kid. Has the ability to be a clubhouse leader, a big positive-impact guy. Man, he's a stud. I can't wait for people to see him.
"
The one area where Mazara has disappointed so far is in the power department, but that likely won't last. He's a well-built 6'4" and 195 pounds and gets a 65 power grade from MLB.com.
Odds are Mazara will get some time in the Rangers' outfield in 2016. From there, turning into an All-Star should only be a matter of letting his talent loose on the notoriously hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington.
7. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
2 of 8
With the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft, the Pittsburgh Pirates took right-handed pitcher Gerrit Cole. In the fifth round, they selected right-hander Tyler Glasnow. Currently, Cole is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, and Glasnow is knocking on the door.
The 22-year-old advanced as far as Triple-A in 2015, where he posted a 2.20 ERA in eight starts and continued his pattern of striking out more than a batter per inning. That points mainly to a mid-to-high 90s fastball that MLB.com gives a 75 grade on the 20-80 scale.
However, be warned that Glasnow is not perfect. He has a power curveball to go with his fastball, but it's not consistent. He also has a changeup that's still developing. And as noted by John Perrotto at Baseball America, the 6'8" Glasnow struggles to repeat his delivery as much as the next tall pitcher. That's evident in his 4.2 career BB/9 in the minors.
Nonetheless, the expectation for Glasnow is that he could arrive sometime in 2016 to help the Pirates' thinned-out rotation. Once he does arrive in Pittsburgh, he'll be working under a pitching coach in Ray Searage who's shown a knack both for fixing weaknesses and maximizing strengths.
The notion of Searage's tutelage and PNC Park's friendly dimensions joining forces with Glasnow's immense natural talent bodes well. If Cole could be an All-Star within three years of his debut, one feels comfortable saying that Glasnow could be as well.
6. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
3 of 8
The Phillies arguably began their rebuild a year or two too late, but it's already in a position to begin bearing fruit. And of all the potential stars in the club's system, none stands out quite like shortstop J.P. Crawford.
The Phillies drafted Crawford with the No. 16 pick in the 2013 draft, and he's since emerged as one of the game's top prospects. His most attractive talent is his defense, as MLB.com describes him as a "a smooth fielder with sure hands, a plus arm and good range."
The 20-year-old's defense alone could earn him a call to the majors in 2016, as the only thing standing in his way at shortstop in Philadelphia is Freddy Galvis. It's Crawford's bat, however, that should eventually put him in an All-Star Game.
Crawford is a career .290 hitter with a .790 OPS in three minor league seasons. And with a 12.1 BB% and 11.1 K% at Double-A in 2015, he showed that he has the advanced approach to back up those numbers.
All this makes Crawford a good bet to at least hit for average. In terms of power, Josh Norris of Baseball America notes that the lefty swinger has pull power for now. Fortunately for him, he's headed for a home ballpark that has a habit of amplifying such power.
Shortstops who can field and hit aren't especially common in today's MLB. If Crawford reaches his potential, he's not going to be overlooked.
5. Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins
4 of 8
The Minnesota Twins drafted pitcher Jose Berrios out of Puerto Rico with the No. 32 overall pick in 2012, and all he's done since then is put up overpowering numbers in the minor leagues.
The 21-year-old right-hander owns a 2.98 ERA and 3.87 strikeout-to-walk ratio in four seasons and was last seen posting a 2.62 ERA and 5.93 K/BB in 12 starts at Triple-A. That had many Twins fans pining for Berrios to be called up for the September stretch run, but general manager Terry Ryan played it safe.
"It was difficult," Ryan said, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. "We're all sensitive to the innings, and there's no question that's a factor. He's also about 5'11", 187 pounds, so it's not like this is a 6'4", 200-pounder. So I'm a little concerned we don't do any damage when he's built up a good resume."
Berrios' size is indeed a question mark, but it might be the only one he has. His good control comes from an ability to repeat his delivery, and he complements his mid-90s heat with a changeup and a breaking ball that both rate as above-average in MLB.com's eyes.
Though these talents didn't earn Berrios a call-up at the end of 2015, there's not much standing in his way of being in the big leagues sometime in 2016. Once in Minnesota, he should quickly rise to the top of a starting rotation that doesn't feature a true ace.
4. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
5 of 8
The Nationals rolled the dice when they drafted pitcher Lucas Giolito with the No. 16 pick in 2012. They chose him knowing full well that the right-hander would likely need Tommy John surgery. Sure enough, he underwent the operation just two months after being chosen.
But now Washington's gamble is in a position to pay off. In no time at all, Giolito has gone from wounded prospect to arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball.
The 21-year-old has dominated in his four minor league seasons, posting a 2.63 ERA with a 3.56 K/BB. That's what you can do when you have the full package, as Giolito has a classic ace build (6'6" and 255 pounds) with strong command of three-plus pitches. The best of those is a fastball that sits in the mid-to-high 90s and can touch triple digits.
"Giolito throws a billion miles per hour," Nationals star Bryce Harper said in December, per Dan Shiferaw of CSN Mid-Atlantic. "Whatever they do with him, I'd like to have him on our staff or even in the bullpen. That'd be something I'd think about."
Harper should get his wish in 2016. Giolito will be in spring training with the Nationals. Even if he doesn't break camp with the big club, he'll be staring up at a rotation that is noticeably lacking in depth. He should get his shot, and his considerable talent should do the rest.
3. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
6 of 8
The Minnesota Twins drafted center fielder Byron Buxton with the No. 2 overall pick in 2012, and he went into 2015 widely regarded as the No. 1 prospect in baseball.
So suffice it to say the 22-year-old's first taste of the majors was a disappointment. Buxton played in 46 games and hit just .209 with a .576 OPS.
But on one bright side, Baseball-Reference.com and Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tell us that Buxton's rookie status is still intact. And on another bright side, his first taste of the majors isn't a true reflection of his talent.
Buxton is universally regarded as a legit five-tool talent. As evidenced by his .301 average and .872 OPS in four minor league seasons, he possesses a strong hit tool. He also has excellent speed that he can put to use in the outfield and on the basepaths—and strong power potential as well.
It's no wonder the Twins saw fit to clear the way for Buxton when they traded CF Aaron Hicks to the New York Yankees earlier this winter. That deal didn't secure Buxton the club's center field job, but the Twins very much want it to go to him.
“Byron is the heir apparent, no doubt. But it’s a matter of when he’s ready to take that next step,” Twins assistant GM Rob Antony said, per Miller. “We hope he shows he’s ready next spring, but if he needs time at Triple-A, we have [Danny] Santana or some other options.”
Even after sputtering at the start of his major league career, it's easy to have faith in Buxton. He basically projects as a Lorenzo Cain-type talent in center field, and such players are probably more appreciated in today's MLB than they've ever been before.
2. Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets
7 of 8
Even by prospect standards, Steven Matz has had an unusual journey. The New York Mets chose the left-hander in the second round of the 2009 draft, but Tommy John surgery and other health issues delayed his professional debut until 2012.
But now Matz is coming off a promising major league breakthrough in 2015, and a job in the Mets' rotation is his to lose heading into 2016.
Matz definitely has the arm to make good on his opportunity. The 24-year-old works off a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, and as you can see at PitcherList.com, it features some nifty late movement. It's a weapon that helped him strike out more than a batter per inning and post a 2.25 ERA in the minors, which he followed up with a 2.27 ERA in six major league starts.
Where things are a little fuzzier is in how Matz is going to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball. He mainly featured a curveball in the majors in 2015, but it's not an overpowering pitch. The good news is that he has a plus-changeup to fall back on, and Eno Sarris of FanGraphs has noted that Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen has a knack for teaching nasty sliders.
Rather than figuring out his arsenal, the path to stardom for Matz may simply involve staying healthy. He avoided the injury bug for a few years after finally getting on track in 2012, but it bit him again after he had reached the majors in 2015.
Still, it's a relief that Matz is built at 6'2" and 200 pounds. With the kind of talent he has at his disposal, he's a strong bet to follow his current opportunity to an eventual All-Star selection.
1. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
8 of 8
After the Dodgers drafted shortstop Corey Seager—brother of Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager— with the No. 18 pick in the 2012 draft, it didn't take him long to establish himself as one of the top hitters in the minors. In four seasons, he hit .307 with an .891 OPS.
And at the end of 2015, that success continued into the majors. Seager got called up for a September cup of coffee, and he staked his claim to the Dodgers' starting shortstop gig by hitting .337 with a .986 OPS in 27 games. He heads into 2016 with a starting job and with his rookie eligibility still intact.
Seager's one question mark is his ability to catch the ball out at short. He rated as an average-ish defender during his September cameo, and even that may be giving him a bit too much credit.
However, Seager's hitting should more than compensate for whatever sins he commits on defense. He's widely regarded as a player with an elite hit tool, and he showed that he does have an advanced feel for hitting by complementing his .337 average in the majors with a 12.4 BB% and 16.8 K%.
As Ben Badler wrote at Baseball America: "While many young hitters overswing and get out of control once they reach the big leagues, Seager showed an uncanny knack for slowing the game down and repeating his swing, which helped him dominate when he got to Los Angeles."
We've previously discussed how Seager is in the middle of a young shortstop revolution in the majors, along with the Houston Astros' Carlos Correa and the Cleveland Indians' Francisco Lindor. His advantage is that, for now, he pretty much has the National League all to himself.
That will only help him become an All-Star.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
