NFL Playoffs 2016: Updated AFC, NFC Scenarios Before Monday Night Football

It was all good just a week ago.

The NFL playoff picture was pretty much set. There was no way the Pittsburgh Steelers were going to lose to the Baltimore Ravens, right? The New England Patriots weren't about to lose to the New York Jets, were they?

Yeah, about that. Topsy-turvy nonsense has officially made its way to the AFC. On the other hand, the NFC has its six teams. The only thing left to do is figure out who plays where.

Here's your updated NFL playoff picture, with a big-time Monday-night game being all that's left.

Top Six Teams	Record	Clinch Scenario
In The Hunt	Record	Clinch Scenario
1) New England Patriots	12-3	Can clinch No. 1 seed with win vs. MIA.
2) Cincinnati Bengals	11-3	Clinched AFC North. Can clinch first-round bye with win at DEN.
3) Denver Broncos	10-4	Cannot clinch division Monday.
4) Houston Texans	8-7	Can clinch AFC South with CIN win or win vs. JAX
5) Kansas City Chiefs	10-5	Clinched playoff berth. Can clinch AFC West with win and DEN loss in Week 17.
6) New York Jets	10-5	Can clinch playoff berth with win at BUF.
7) Pittsburgh Steelers	9-6	Can clinch playoff berth with win and NYJ loss.
8) Indianapolis Colts	7-8	Can only clinch AFC South with win and help

The Steelers Didn't Make It Easy

Pittsburgh went from controlling its own destiny to needing help.

Thanks to the Jets finding a way to beat New England, they're a win in Buffalo away from clinching a playoff berth in Todd Bowles' first season as a head coach.

Just think: A third of the league had a chance to have Bowles as their head coach before the Jets swooped him up, per Charley Casserly of the NFL Network:

The Jets can still clinch a playoff berth if they lose to the Bills, but the green team would need the Cleveland Browns to beat the Steelers in Cleveland to ensure the Jets are one of the six teams in the AFC.

Pittsburgh would need a win and a Jets loss to get back into the playoff picture, so expect the Steelers faithful to be huge fans of Buffalo wings and Niagara Falls this week.

What Help Do the Colts Need to Clinch the AFC South?

Think of the Indianapolis Colts' quest for the AFC South as playing the largest parlay card in the casinos.

You need all teams to come through. One loss, you lose the money. The Colts are still mathematically alive to win the AFC South, but it's going to take many miracles, and then some, to get into the playoffs. 

How much of a miracle are we talking? The odds of the Colts making the playoffs are a mere 3,326-to-1, according to ESPN.com's Jeremy Mills:

"

First the obvious results—the Colts would need to win and the Texans lose to force a tie for the division title with an 8-8 record.

Each of the first four tiebreakers—head-to-head record, record in division games, record against common opponents, and record in conference games—would be tied in that scenario.

So we head to the strength-of-victory tiebreaker. Four of the wins would be identical, as both teams beat the Buccaneers, Jaguars and Titans (twice). Plus they’d have one win against their 8-8 co-champion. So strength of victory would rest on the Texans wins against the Bengals, Jets and Saints compared to the Colts wins against the Broncos, Falcons and Dolphins.

"

Did you get all that? Good.

Top Six Teams	Record	Clinch Scenario
1) Carolina Panthers	14-1	Can clinch home-field adv. with win vs. TB
2) Arizona Cardinals	13-2	Clinched first-round bye. Can clinch No. 1 seed with win and CAR loss.
3) Green Bay Packers	10-5	Clinched playoff berth. Can clinch NFC North with win vs. MIN
4) Washington Redskins	8-7	Clinched NFC East.
5) Minnesota Vikings	10-5	Clinched playoff berth. Can clinch NFC North with win vs. GB
6) Seattle Seahawks	9-6	Clinched playoff berth.

The NFC North Is All That's Left

Sure, there's still the matter of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to be decided, especially if the Carolina Panthers lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That would need to be coupled with an Arizona Cardinals win over the Seattle Seahawks for a switch at the top to be a reality.

In reality, the only race that needs to be decided is who clinches the No. 3 seed and wins the NFC North. The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings have the distinction of closing out the NFL's regular season with a division title and home playoff game on the line.

The Vikings clinched a playoff berth thanks to the 49-17 thrashing they put on the New York Giants, setting the NFC's top six in stone. The only official spot that's clinched is Seattle's wild-card berth. The Seahawks could choose to rest their players and concede with the No. 6 seed, which would guarantee a rematch with either the Vikings or Seahawks.

Even though the Vikings were dominated by the Packers in Week 11 in TCF Bank Stadium, NBC Sports analyst Tony Dungy doesn't think it's a lock for Green Bay to win this time around:

This might be a bad time to note that the Vikings could lose to the Packers, and not have to even travel back to Minnesota. If the Vikings lose and the Seahawks lose to Arizona, then it'll be Vikings/Packers III the following week.

Welcome to the playoffs.