Biggest Steals, Overpays of MLB Offseason Entering January

It's never too early to deem offseason acquisitions busts or steals, and there's already been plenty of moves we can analyze so far this winter. 

Over the next few slides, we'll identify a handful of those transactions that fall under those two categories. 

What constitutes a bust or a steal? In short, teams that overextend themselves either financially or with prospects have overpaid for a player. This winter, Ben Zobrist and Shelby Miller were involved in deals that teams may regret down the road. 

On the other hand, deals that are team friendly in relation to the free-agent and trade markets normally earn steal status. Johnny Cueto's $130 million deal looks like a bargain when considering what other hurlers have gone for this winter, while Todd Frazier and John Jaso can each make an impact with their new teams for relatively little cost. 

Let us know what you think in the comments section below. Are you thrilled that your team added one of these players for the price that they did? Disappointed? Who else can be considered a steal or bust from this busy winter?

The games still need to be played, and each of the players on this list are talented enough to live up to their price tag. But as of now, we can still make some assumptions based off the data at hand. 

Steal: John Jaso

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

John Jaso's ability to hit right-handed pitching makes him a fine addition for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

In a move that probably flew under the radar, the Pittsburgh Pirates inked veteran John Jaso to a two-year, $8 million deal last week. 

Jaso will combine with the right-handed hitting Michael Morse in a platoon scenario at first base for the Pirates. The move comes with some risk, as Jaso has played in only two games at the position. 

“We recognize there is risk,” Pirates general manager Neal Huntington told Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “We recognize we just experienced a tough defensive season at first base. At the same time, we also recognize that for us to be successful, there are going to have to be calculated risks. In our minds, this is a good one to take."

Yes, Pittsburgh is rolling the dice on Jaso, but his offensive capabilities are potentially worth well more than the $8 million deal he signed for. 

If healthy, Jaso has always produced at the major league level. He slashed .286/.380/.459 in an injury-plagued 2015, and he has posted an on-base percentage over .360 while slugging over .400 since his debut in 2008. 

Pittsburgh's interest in Jaso lies in his ability to hit right-handed pitching, as he'll likely give way to Morse when lefties are on the mound. Jaso has excelled in those situations, slashing .274/.368/.429 with a career wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) of 127 in his career. 

He may not break any jersey sales records, but Jaso is a fine addition for the Pirates. For a team that doesn't need much, he's a perfect fit at Pittsburgh's most pressing hole. 

Overpay: Ben Zobrist

Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

Ben Zobrist will help in the short term, but the Cubs will regret his contract as he ages.

It's hard to criticize the Chicago Cubs for splurging on Ben Zobrist. The versatile infielder is a perfect fit for manager Joe Maddon's young Cubs team and will give the club quality opportunities to reach the World Series over the next few seasons. 

But there's no doubt that a four-year, $56 million contract for the 34-year-old is a reach and could hurt the Cubs in the latter days of the deal. 

That's not really a knock on Zobrist, either. He's coming off a season in which he slashed .276/.359/.450 and hit 13 homers. It may be difficult to believe, but Zobrist has posted an on-base percentage over .350 and reached double digits in homers in six of the seven full seasons he's played in the big leagues. 

He's proven to be a valuable defender, too. Zobrist has played every position besides catcher and pitcher in his career, posing 43 defensive runs saved as a second baseman and 31 as an outfielder during that time. 

It all sounds good on paper, but Zobrist is pegged to make $16.5 million over the next two seasons, and $12.5 million in the final year of his deal. He's already seen a decline in homers and posted a negative total in defensive runs saved at second base in 2015. 

Father time remains undefeated and will ultimately catch up to Zobrist, too. If the Cubs don't take advantage of their current window while he's still productive, it could end up costing them the chance to keep one of their many talented youngsters who are headed for big paydays down the road.  

Steal: Todd Frazier

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The White Sox added Todd Frazier without subtracting from their future core.

As the winter progressed, it became evident that the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds would part ways with all-star third baseman Todd Frazier. 

Eventually, Cincinnati pulled the trigger on a three-way deal involving the Chicago White Sox and Los Angles Dodgers.

Unfortunately, Reds fans were left with an unsatisfying feeling after seeing the final trade. Cincinnati came away with infielders Jose Peraza and Brandon Dixon and outfielder Scott Schebler from the Dodgers, while L.A. received righty Frankie Montas, infielder Micah Johnson and outfielder Trayce Thompson from Chicago.

After breaking down the deal, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo wondered why the Reds didn't deal solely with the White Sox:

"

The biggest question that comes to mind when trying to unpack this deal is this: Why didn't the Reds just go straight to the White Sox and cut out the middleman (the Dodgers)? After all, Montas has one of the bigger arms among pitching prospects, with a 70 fastball on the 20-80 scale, to go along with a plus slider. Given his average changeup and his improved command, he has a chance to stick as a starter. At worst, the No. 54 prospect on MLBPipeline.com's Top 100 list has the stuff to pitch in the back end of a bullpen in the big leagues, and very soon.

"

While the White Sox may have included the better prospects, Montas, Johnson and Thompson have their flaws. Montas profiles more as a shutdown reliever rather than a starter, Johnson failed to cement himself as Chicago's starting second baseman when given the chance last season, and Thompson has yet to prove he can cut down on his strikeouts so far in the minors.

That brings us back to Frazier, who has little risk involved in his game. For the next two seasons, the White Sox will get one of the game's top third baseman. Frazier has reached double digits in homers in each of the last four seasons, mashing 35 last year. 

The Reds may be kicking themselves for the package they received for Frazier, but the White Sox will be thrilled to add a proven major league hitter for three prospects with big question marks. 

Overpay: Shelby Miller

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Shelby Miller wil help the Diamondbacks, but he isn't worth the haul the club traded for him.

In the short term, the Arizona Diamondbacks improved their chances of winning the National League West with the addition of former Atlanta Braves right-hander Shelby Miller.

Miller was one of Atlanta's few bright spots last season. The 25-year-old logged 200 innings for the first time in his career, posting a 3.04 ERA and fanning roughly 20 percent of the batters he faced. With Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin joining Miller at the front of the rotation, the Diamondbacks boast one of the top pitching trios in MLB.

But those good vibes quickly dissipate when looking at the long-term ramifications of the deal.

While Miller will significantly improve Arizona's staff over the next few seasons, the Diamondbacks paid a pretty penny to acquire his services. The Braves netted talented outfielder Ender Inciarte, top pitching prospect Aaron Blair and 2015 No. 1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson in what looks to be a home run package.

Inciarte was a three-win player last season, slashing .303/.338/.408, stealing 21 bases and posting 29 defensive runs saved. The 25-year-old ranked second among outfielders in that category last season. For a Braves team that's loaded up on young pitching over the last year, Inciarte is a much-needed everyday player that's ready to play from day one. 

The two prospects involved in the trade push the deal over the top. Blair sits at 61 on MLB.com's prospect rankings after posting a 2.92 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A, and Swanson immediately becomes the Braves' crowned jewel. The former Vanderbilt star could be in the big leagues quickly after excelling in his first taste of pro ball last season. 

Controllable young pitching has become the game's most valuable currency. The Diamondbacks will enjoy Miller for the next few seasons, but they could come to regret what they gave up in order to get him down the road. 

Steal: Johnny Cueto

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

An argument can be made that Johnny Cueto should have earned much more than he did in free agency.

Johnny Cueto, a steal? How can a hurler that just earned a six-year, $130 million deal be considered a bargain? 

Looking at the landscape of MLB—Jeff Samardzija landed $90 million, Mike Leake signed for $80 million and J.A. Happ even inked his name for $36 million—Cueto's contract looks rather team friendly. In fact, an argument can be made he's worth closer to David Price and Zack Greinke money than what he ended up signing for. 

From 2011 through 2015, Cueto ranked fourth in MLB in ERA, ahead of both Greinke and Price. He posted a sub-3.00 ERA in four straight seasons before 2015, including in 2013 which was shortened by an arm injury. In 2014 with the Reds, Cueto won 20 games, posted a 2.25 ERA and struck out more than 25 percent of the batters he faced. 

Cueto's value was diminished by a do-or-die contract year. He struggled in 2015, recording a 4.34 ERA in the second half with the Kansas City Royals. Baseball minds also remember the drubbing he took at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS, although he made up for that outing in outstanding fashion in the World Series against the New York Mets. 

Even with the down year, the San Francisco Giants should be thrilled to sign Cueto at an annual rate of roughly $21 million. There wasn't any noticeable decline in velocity in 2015, and the 29-year-old's 45 percent ground-ball rate will play well in the spacious AT&T Park. 

Cueto's deal will also take him through his age 35 season. A shaky 2015 isn't what Cueto or the Giants wanted to see, but it could ultimately lead to the best possible situation for both sides long term. 

Stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.