Fantasy Football Week 16: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

Week 16 of the fantasy football season has finally arrived. This article will go over some of the advanced stats, metrics and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential and win it all during championship week.

Player projections for the week’s top five options at each position will also be provided in this article.

If you’re reading this, odds are you are still invested in fantasy—which is always a good thing this late in the season. Congratulations if you made it to the championship round.

At quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars signal-caller Blake Bortles has worked his way into the top three in Week 16. He’s set for a massive game against the New Orleans Saints.

Arizona Cardinals rookie running back David Johnson assumes the top spot at the position this week, edging out Minnesota Vikings stud Adrian Peterson. There are some unfamiliar names in the top five of the running back rankings this week as well. It has been an odd year for the position.

At wide receiver, two Pittsburgh Steelers teammates rank in the top five together. They are joined by Bortles’ top target in Jacksonville: Allen Robinson.

Also in the top five this week at his respective position is Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Julius Thomas. In case you couldn’t tell from all the high rankings of Jacksonville players, there are a lot of points expected in the Jacksonville-New Orleans game.

Let’s get to some of the stats, metrics and player projections that will help you dominate in Week 16.

Quarterbacks: Blake Bortles a Top 3 Fantasy QB This Week

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Blake Bortles

Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers has a stranglehold on the top quarterback spot, but close behind him this week are Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Blake Bortles of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both Roethlisberger and Bortles have fantastic matchups.

Seattle Seahawks signal-caller Russell Wilson remains in the top five, as he has a favorable matchup against the St. Louis Rams. Look for him to continue to light up the scoreboard.

Notably absent from the top five is New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who should still be in starting lineups this week. He’s not in the top five because of a semi-difficult matchup against the New York Jets, injuries to some of his key targets and the plus matchups other options such as Roethlisberger and Bortles have.

The Projections

1. Cam Newton (at ATL): 20-of-31, 304 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 45 rushing yards—28.7 fantasy points
2. Ben Roethlisberger (at BAL): 29-of-40, 346 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, 39 rushing yards—27.8 fantasy points
3. Blake Bortles (at NO): 30-of-47, 332 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception—27.3 fantasy points
4. Carson Palmer (vs. GB): 21-of-29, 320 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—24.8 fantasy points
5. Russell Wilson (vs. STL): 18-of-29, 251 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 27 rushing yards—24.7 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The New Orleans Saints have given up an average of 23.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Only one other team (the New York Giants) has given up more than 20 points per game to quarterbacks (20.3). Quarterbacks have thrown an astonishing 39 touchdowns versus just six interceptions when playing the Saints this season.

It could be a boring game through the air when the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals face each other in Week 16. They rank No. 1 and No. 2 at slowing fantasy quarterbacks this season, respectively, and both are starting backup (or injured) quarterbacks. If you need a quarterback, look elsewhere this week.

One of those other places you could look? In Tampa Bay, where rookie signal-caller Jameis Winston has been impressive for the Buccaneers. He will play the Chicago Bears this week, who have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season, per ESPN.com. The Bears are also just one week removed from ceding four passing touchdowns to the non-explosive Teddy Bridgewater of the Minnesota Vikings.

What the Metrics Say

Newton has truly separated himself from the pack. He is scoring 0.72 fantasy points per dropback, according to Pro Football Focus, which is more than 0.10 points per dropback than any other quarterback this year. In other words, for every 10 dropbacks, Newton scores one more fantasy point than all of his peers.

Even more impressive for Newton is the fact that 65 percent of his passing yards this season have come prior to yards gained after the catch. That’s most among all quarterbacks with at least 200 completions.

Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins appears to be the real deal. He is accurate on 78.4 percent of his passes, giving him the third-highest mark in the league behind Bridgewater (who makes much safer throws) and Wilson.

Running Backs: David Johnson Assumes Top Spot for Week 16

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

David Johnson

Heading into Week 16—the most important week of the fantasy football season—the top five running backs include Minnesota Vikings star Adrian Peterson and then a bunch of other names you never would have guessed would be this important at this stage of the game.

And yet, there's no denying that a player like Arizona Cardinals rookie running back David Johnson has earned the top spot. He’s on a hot streak right now, but he’s been extremely efficient at scoring fantasy points all season long.

The Projections

1. David Johnson (vs. GB): 22 carries, 126 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 42 yards—23.4 fantasy points
2. Adrian Peterson (vs. NYG): 20 carries, 112 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 21 yards—19.3 fantasy points
3. DeAngelo Williams (at BAL): 16 carries, 82 yards, 1 touchdown; 6 receptions, 45 yards—18.7 fantasy points
4. Doug Martin (vs. CHI): 21 carries, 96 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 22 yards—17.8 fantasy points
5. Charcandrick West (vs. CLE): 15 carries, 73 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 37 yards—17.0 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The Miami Dolphins continue to misuse him, but Lamar Miller should be in fantasy lineups once again in Week 16. He’ll be playing the Indianapolis Colts, who have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, per ESPN.com. The Colts have given up 10 rushing touchdowns, tied for fifth-most in the league.

The San Francisco 49ers have given up he second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, according to ESPN.com, and have seen running backs score six touchdowns against them in the past three weeks combined. Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah of the Detroit Lions, who will face the 49ers this week, are both viable flex options.

Arizona’s Johnson is the No. 1 running back this week because of his matchup against the Green Bay Packers. While the Packers are slightly above average against running backs overall, that’s because they have only allowed one receiving touchdown to running backs so far this season. On the ground, however, the Packers—like the Colts—have given up 10 touchdowns to running backs, tied for fifth-most in the league.

What the Metrics Say

Johnson’s scoring onslaught shouldn’t surprise anyone. He is averaged 0.54 fantasy points per opportunity this season—a Pro Football Focus stat—which is the third-highest mark among all running backs with at least 50 attempts.

One reason why Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin has been so successful this season is because he’s been fighting for extra yardage. He gains an average of 3.25 yards after initial contact per rush, topping the league.

One of the stats above says you can start Detroit running backs Bell and Abdullah this week, but there’s a metric out there that says you can plug Detroit's Theo Riddick into flex spots in PPR leagues as well. He has gained an average of 2.27 receiving yards gained per pass route run, giving him the highest mark in the league by a wide margin.

Wide Receivers: 2 Pittsburgh Steelers Teammates in Top 5

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant

The Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to run rampant on the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, and it shows in the rankings department. Ben Roethlisberger was listed as the No. 2 quarterback earlier in this article, and DeAngelo Williams was pegged as the No. 3 running back.

Now two more Pittsburgh Steelers players—Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant—are ranked in the top five at their position (wide receiver).

The Projections

1. Antonio Brown (at BAL): 11 receptions, 129 yards, 1 touchdown—18.9 fantasy points
2. Allen Robinson (at NO): 7 receptions, 112 yards, 1 touchdown—17.2 fantasy points
3. DeAndre Hopkins (at TEN): 8 receptions, 103 yards, 1 touchdown—16.3 fantasy points
4. Brandon Marshall (vs. NE): 7 receptions, 96 yards, 1 touchdown—15.6 fantasy points
5. Martavis Bryant (at BAL): 6 receptions, 95 yards, 1 touchdown—15.5 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Bryant has never gone three games in a row without scoring a touchdown. He has not scored in his two previous games. You do the math.

According to ESPN.com, the Indianapolis Colts have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season. The Colts have seen wide receivers score seven touchdowns against them in the past three games combined. Miami Dolphins wideout Jarvis Landry, who should face Indianapolis slot corner Darius Butler for most of the game in Week 16, should be viewed as a borderline WR1 in PPR leagues.

Beware of Ted Ginn Jr. this week. The Carolina Panthers breakout wide receiver has caught two touchdowns in three straight games, which is obviously an unsustainable rate.

He scored twice against the Atlanta Falcons—his Week 16 opponent—just two weeks ago, so fantasy owners may be tempted to insert him into lineups again in Week 16. This would be a mistake; the Falcons gave up just three touchdowns to wide receivers from Weeks 1-12. Their paltry Week 14 effort against Ginn was the anomaly.

What the Metrics Say

Kansas City Chiefs wideout Jeremy Maclin has established himself as a tail-end WR1 in fantasy this season, and his sure hands are a major reason why. According to Pro Football Focus, Maclin has just one drop on 80 catchable targets, giving him a drop rate of only 1.25 percent—best in the league.

Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Allen Robinson is the one ranked in the top five, but his teammate, Allen Hurns, could rack up the points this week as well. Just over one-in-four of Hurns’ targets come 20-plus yards down the field, and he has caught 50 percent of such passes (second-highest rate in the league), which means Hurns can score points in a hurry.

Seattle Seahawks wideout Doug Baldwin is more than just a touchdown guy (although, obviously, his touchdowns are boosting his fantasy value). He has also gained a strong 10.9 yards per target this season, seventh-most in the league.

Tight Ends: Julius Thomas a Must-Start in Week 16

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Julius Thomas

The elite group of tight ends has been well established for the entire second half of the season, but a newcomer—Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Julius Thomas—is to be found in the top five this week.

Thomas is not a total stranger to the elite group, however. He was a top-flight option during his days in Denver, but he has been more of a tail-end TE1 with the Jaguars. That changes in Week 16, as his Jaguars will square off against the New Orleans Saints and their sieve-like pass defense.

The Projections

1. Rob Gronkowski (at NYJ): 5 receptions, 98 yards, 1 touchdown—15.8 fantasy points
2. Greg Olsen (at ATL): 6 receptions, 93 yards, 1 touchdown—15.3 fantasy points
3. Jordan Reed (at PHI): 8 receptions, 82 yards, 1 touchdown—14.2 fantasy points
4. Julius Thomas (at NO): 5 receptions, 78 yards, 1 touchdown—13.8 fantasy points
5. Delanie Walker (vs. HOU): 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 touchdown—13.5 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The Saints have given up by far the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, according to ESPN.com. Tight ends have scored an average of 11.4 fantasy points when facing the Saints this year; no other team has given up more than 10.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends. That’s why Thomas ranks so high.

For their part, the Jaguars aren’t all that good at stopping tight ends either. They have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, according to ESPN.com. They have given up three multi-touchdown games to tight ends since Week 10. Plug Ben Watson of the Saints into your lineup.

Jordan Reed of the Washington Redskins is on fire right now, but he faces one of the toughest matchups in Week 16. He’ll play the Philadelphia Eagles, who have given up just three touchdowns to tight ends all season long. But Reed has scored three touchdowns in the past two games combined, and there’s no way you can sit him.

What the Metrics Say 

According to Pro Football Focus, New York Giants tight end Will Tye is scoring just 0.11 fantasy points per snap this season, ranked 20th among tight ends. Some want to view him as a tail-end TE1, but that just isn’t the case. He’s a decent backup and nothing else.

No tight end has run more pass routes than Cleveland Browns breakout player Gary Barnidge. Barnidge has run 507 pass routes. His closest competitor is Ben Watson, who has run 462 pass routes.

Detroit Lions tight end Eric Ebron has scored four touchdowns this season. Three of them have come when Ebron was lined up in the slot. If you have him on your squad (or you’re playing against him), pay extra attention when you see Ebron line up in the slot.

Kickers: Cairo Santos Set for Big Game in Week 16

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Cairo Santos

The top five kickers heading into Week 16 are the same five kickers as last week, just in a different order. Kickers are often overlooked in fantasy, but a strong (or weak) day from them can make all the difference.

The Projections

1. Stephen Gostkowski (at NYJ): 3/3 FGs, 3/3 XPs—12 fantasy points
2. Steven Hauschka (vs. STL): 2/2 FGs, 4/4 XPs—10 fantasy points
3. Cairo Santos (vs. CLE): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
4. Chandler Catanzaro (vs. GB): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
5. Graham Gano (at ATL): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Kickers have scored double-digit points when facing the Cleveland Browns in seven of the past 11 games, per ESPN.com. Fire up Cairo Santos of the Kansas City Chiefs, who plays the Browns, with confidence.

The New York Giants have given up multiple field-goal attempts to kickers in five of their past six games. Look for Minnesota Vikings kicker Blair Walsh to get several attempts this weekend.

Carolina Panthers kicker Graham Gano ranks in the top five, but he has a difficult matchup this week. He’ll be playing the Atlanta Falcons, who have given up just seven field goals in their past six games combined.

Defense and Special Teams: Houston D/ST Rises into Top 5

Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

J.J. Watt

The best D/ST units all have excellent matchups again in Week 16. The Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will all be playing against subpar—or backup—quarterbacks, while the Carolina Panthers will face the Atlanta Falcons, a team they shut out just two weeks ago.

The non-regular in the top five this week is the Houston Texans, whose D/ST can be trusted in Week 16 against the depleted Tennessee Titans and backup quarterback Zach Mettenberger.

The Projections

1. Seattle Seahawks (vs. STL): 14 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 sacks
2. Kansas City Chiefs (at CLE): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 sacks
3. Carolina Panthers (at ATL): 20 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
4. Denver Broncos (vs. CIN): 20 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
5. Houston Texans (at TEN): 17 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 3 sacks

Stats to Know 

As noted above, the Texans are a top D/ST unit this week because of their matchup against the Titans. The Titans have given up the most fantasy points to opposing D/STs so far this season, according to ESPN.com. They have given up double-digit fantasy points to opposing D/STs in seven of their past 10 outings.

The Miami Dolphins D/ST is worth a look this week. They Dolphins take on the Indianapolis Colts, who, as of this writing, don’t know who the starting quarterback will be. The Colts have given up an average of just over 18 fantasy points per game to opposing D/STs over their past three games.

The New England Patriots D/ST has been impressive lately, but it isn't a slum-dunk option this week against the New York Jets, who have allowed a total of just one fantasy point to opposing D/STs over their past four games combined.

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Stats to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via ESPN.com or via NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Metrics to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via Pro Football Focus.