NFL Predictions Week 14: Final Odds Projections and Fantasy Stars to Watch

For many NFL squads, Week 14 represents a time to incorrectly identify important games as "must-win." In the case of fantasy football participants, the usually hyperbolic statement applies.

A six-team playoff bracket running through Weeks 14-16 has become a popular format. Congratulations to those bye-bound managers given a week to relax and enjoy football without selfish rooting motivations. (Who is anyone kidding? Those players are all scouting for Week 15 and hoping the tougher opponent loses.)

They'll watch as the others win or go home. Or maybe go outside on the count of their fantasy season ending.

Heading into the make-or-break weekend, let's examine the odds, courtesy of Odds Shark, and three players who will advance happy owners into the next round.

Away	Home	Odds	Prediction
Buffalo Bills	Philadelphia Eagles	Even	30-24 BUF
Seattle Seahawks	Baltimore Ravens	SEA -13	27-6 SEA
San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns	CLE -1	17-16 SF
Detroit Lions	St. Louis Rams	DET -2.5	23-15 DET
Tennessee Titans	New York Jets	NYJ -8.5	28-21 NYJ
Pittsburgh Steelers	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -2.5	38-35 PIT
Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Even	23-20 IND
San Diego Chargers	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -11.5	31-20 KC
Washington Redskins	Chicago Bears	CHI -3.5	23-21 CHI
Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	CAR -9	30-21 CAR
New Orleans Saints	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -4.5	34-30 TB
Oakland Raiders	Denver Broncos	DEN -7.5	27-20 DEN
Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	GB -7.5	20-12 GB
New England Patriots	Houston Texans	NE -3.5	28-19 NE
New York Giants	Miami Dolphins	Even	31-30 NYG

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Jim Mone/Associated Press

A month ago, Russell Wilson's fantasy owners regretted investing an early pick on the Seattle Seahawks quarterback. Three incredible games later, he ranks No. 6 in standard scoring among passers.

During Seattle's three-game winning streak, Wilson has accumulated 879 passing yards and a dozen total touchdowns. ESPN Stats & Info chronicles his magnificent hot streak:

The Baltimore Ravens have relinquished the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and the careful Wilson doesn't have to worry about turning the ball over against a squad with an NFL-low four interceptions. 

Yet Baltimore's defense is improving as the battered offense sinks. Over the last four weeks, it has yielded 174.8 passing yards and 12.87 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Before panicking, this sample includes games against the St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns.

During the other two contests, the Ravens contained Blake Bortles and Ryan Tannehill in what were supposed to be great matchups.

Wilson isn't a sure bet for another amazing day, but he's too hot to consider benching. The Seahawks should trounce the depleted Ravens, but as the quarterback has proved recently, he doesn't need 45-50 pass attempts to procure value.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Reaping the spoils of starting for the 12-0 Carolina Panthers, Jonathan Stewart has rattled off at least 20 carries in each of the last eight games. According to the Charlotte Observer's Jonathan Jones, he can extend the streak to the longest stretch since 2007 with another 20 touches against the Atlanta Falcons this weekend.

His fantasy owners must love the steady work rate. Only Adrian Peterson, who logged 23 carries on Thursday night, has more rushes than Stewart's 232.

His 3.9 yards per run isn't impressive, but he has notched 50 yards in every game this season. Outside from a few studs, such stability doesn't exist at the volatile position anymore.

The Panthers are eyeing perfection, but they're also thinking about the postseason. Head coach Ron Rivera could start conserving Stewart for the real playoffs during the fantasy playoffs, a possibility he abstractly discussed earlier this week, per Jones: 

"

When you’re in a situation where we have been and you’re trying to work toward something, you’re a little apprehensive to freely do those things, in my opinion. So you go with what’s working. Now as we’re in this position, I’ve got to look at each situation and decide what’s best for us. I’m talking to the coaches, trying to get their input on certain players because we have to be smart.

"

Until he officially announces or enacts such a policy, keep trusting Stewart as a No. 1 running back. The Falcons have yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs, and they're entering Week 14 weaker than usual.

On Friday, the team announced defensive tackle Paul Soliai will miss the game due to a calf injury:

Playing at home against a team spiraling out of control, the Panthers should have little difficulty establishing another lead and plenty of opportunities for their starting running back. Look for another 20 or more rushes on Sunday.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

In his first game of the 2015 season, Mike Evans failed to record a single reception against the New Orleans Saints. So began an underwhelming season from the second-year wide receiver, who has corralled 54 of 99 targets for 850 yards and three touchdowns.

Much has changed since their September meeting. Evans is averaging 10.9 targets and 96.6 yards per game since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' bye.

While he hasn't broke open the scoreboard with three straight games between 60-65 yards, he has at least established a steady floor as Jameis Winston's go-to wideout.

The Saints have also decayed into the NFL's worst defense, allowing a league-worst 8.7 yards per pass attempt and 35 scores through the air. They're somehow getting worse, surrendering 195 points over the past five games.

According to Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz, they hold the worst Defense-adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA) ever entering Week 14. New Orleans also ranks a dismal No. 30 in DVOA against No. 1 receivers while allowing 84.1 yards per game.

Barring an early lead prompting the Buccaneers to lean heavily on running back Doug Martin, Evans should once again get plenty of opportunities. He has struggled with drops this season, but he can't drop them all.

Fantasy scoring data obtained from NFL.com.