MLB Winter Meetings Day 4: Analyzing the Impact of All the Latest Deals, Rumors
The transaction wire was flooded in the days leading into this week’s Major League Baseball winter meetings, and it did not stop over the first two days in Nashville, Tennessee.
But by the time Day 4 concluded Thursday, the final official day of the meetings was mostly uneventful and much of the wire activity consisted of minor or mid-level moves. Still, all can be significant to the teams involved even if the signings and trades don’t necessarily move the needle.
The biggest news to the market came from the Baltimore Orioles who reportedly revoked their approximate $150 million offer to Chris Davis, and three teams being named as the finalists for Jason Heyward’s services.
The biggest signings were from the reliever market with Jonathan Broxton headed back to the St. Louis Cardinals and Tony Sipp re-signing with the Houston Astros. On the trade front, Yunel Escobar is headed to the Los Angeles Angels.
We analyze those rumors and deals, along with the others, coming out of the final day of the 2015 MLB winter meetings.
Rumor: Orioles Take Chris Davis’ Offer “Off Table”
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Source: Buster Olney, ESPN
Rumor: “Orioles didn't increase 7-year offer to Davis. Source: ‘Not one nickel.’ Offer off table, although O's would pick up thread of past talks.”
The foundation of this rumor was the Baltimore Orioles offering the majors’ home run champion Chris Davis a seven-year deal worth about $150 million, but CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported Wednesday that Davis was looking for an offer around $200 million. The Orioles do not appear willing to make that kind of commitment to a player who will be 30 years old before the season starts.
Then, on Thursday morning, there was a report by Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal that the Orioles had raised their offer to $168 million and were “optimistic” that they could lock down a deal with Davis. That appears to not be the case now, assuming it was accurate information.
“We don't have any comment on the rumors,” Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette told reporters. “Lot of rumors out there.”
The Orioles have other roster holes to fill during this offseason, but to this point their main focus has been Davis. Now, having left the meetings without really closing the gap between their offer and Davis’ wants, it is likely the team shifts its focus to other players, which could include free agent Justin Upton and trade target Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies.
Scott Boras represents Davis, and while he is known for shaking the tree and having a mystery team fall from it, there have been no substantial reports of any other team besides the Orioles having real interest in him. We have seen Boras clients overplay their standing in the past, and we’ve also seen them wait out the market and still get their asking price.
How Davis’ market plays out remains to be seen as none of the headlining position free agents have signed. For now, things appear to be getting quieter on his front.
Rumor: Jason Heyward Suitors Include Cubs, Cardinals, Nationals
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Source: Jon Heyman, CBS Sports
Rumor: “Nats are in on jason heyward. Mystery team has been solved. Washington joins cubs, cards in JH derby.”
The Washington Nationals are indeed the mystery team as no rumor had connected them with Jason Heyward until now. Heyman also tweeted that Heyward has a $200 million offer, most likely from the Nationals or St. Louis Cardinals.
The Chicago Cubs and Cardinals were reported as being involved in progressing talks with Heyward earlier in the day. Shortly after Jon Morosi of Fox Sports named the Angels as one of the three finalists, ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweeted that Heyward is not looking for a 10-year deal, but more likely an eight- or nine-year deal at $24 million per season.
About an hour after that, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reported the Angels are not seriously engaged with Heyward, or any other of the free-agent outfielders.
Clearly the market for Heyward is fluid, and there have been no indications of when he might make a decision despite the rumor of a $200 million offer. With Heyward still on the board, though, it means those teams are likely not in serious talks with any of the other free-agent outfield options, which would make sense since none of them have had any significant rumors floating.
Heyward may very well set the market with players like Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes and Chris Davis to eventually follow. However, if Heyward does get what he is reportedly asking for, it could drive up the cost of the others. So a team looking at the other options might be inclined to strike first on one of them at what could end up being a relative bargain.
Nationals Trade Yunel Escobar to Angels for Trevor Gott and Michael Brady
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To the Los Angeles Angels: Infielder Yunel Escobar
The Angels have been looking for help at third base and second base, and trading for Escobar allows the team to continue looking for upgrades at either position as he can play both.
Escobar is owed $7 million in 2016 and he is coming off a .314/.375/.415 slash line, making him a strong offensive option at either position, though he was one of the worst defensive third basemen in the majors last season.
To the Washington Nationals: Right-hander Trevor Gott and Michael Brady
Gott becomes part of the Nationals’ plan to remake their dysfunctional bullpen. He is 23 and has a fastball that camps out at around 96 mph, helping him to a 3.02 ERA in 47.2 innings in his rookie season in 2015. He has had some control issues (3.0 walks per nine innings) and is not missing many bats (5.1 strikeouts per nine), but his 57.2 percent ground ball rate is excellent.
Gott has a shot to be a shutdown reliever if he harnesses his stuff, and the Nationals get six seasons of control since he did not reach a full year of service time with the Angels.
In the end, both clubs got something they needed.
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Cardinals Sign Jonathan Broxton
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Source: Tom Ackerman, KMOX
Contract terms: Two years, $7.5 million with full no-trade protection
Jonathan Broxton was a mess with the Milwaukee Brewers last season (5.89 ERA in 40 appearances) but did a 180 with the Cardinals after a deadline trade (2.66 in 26 appearances). That was enough for the Cardinals to bring him back.
Broxton averaged 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings last season, the first time he’s averaged more than one per inning since 2010. Also, his outlying numbers were solid last season—3.65 FIP, 3.24 xFIP and 3.15 SIERA—so he might have been a bit unlucky in terms of run prevention.
This is a good deal for Broxton because he gets the no-trade protection, and it is good for the Cardinals because they got the 31-year-old right-hander after declining his $9 million option for 2016.
Astros Sign Tony Sipp
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Source: Mark Berman, Fox 26
Contract terms: Three years, $18 million
Tony Sipp is 32, but he is coming off the best season of his career—1.99 ERA, 203 ERA+ in 54.1 innings. Over the last two seasons, Sipp has a 2.66 ERA and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings.
Sipp’s ground ball rate (around 35 percent) helps him age, but he clearly benefited from the run on relievers in free agency and the trade market. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors projected Sipp to get three years and $12 million, but he clearly has gotten in the range of what other established left-handers of his ilk have recently landed—Zach Duke ($15 million), Boone Logan ($16.5 million) and Jeremy Affeldt ($18 million).
This deal is part of the Astros keeping their bullpen as a strong part of the team, which it failed to be during the postseason. The Astros' headline move was trading for Ken Giles on Wednesday, and this Sipp deal gives them back their lock-down lefty.
Rumor: Padres Close to Acquiring Christian Bethancourt from Braves
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Source: Ken Rosenthal, Fox Sports and Joel Sherman, New York Post
Rumor: “Source: #Padres close to acquiring Bethancourt from #Braves. Working through final details.”
Christian Bethancourt was a top-100 prospect, but he has struggled offensively with the Braves over the last two seasons. In 277 plate appearances, he hit .220/.245/.284, and he has also had trouble with passed balls, though scouts rated his arm as an 80.
The Padres already have two major league-ready catchers in Derek Norris and Austin Hedges, so Bethancourt would give them a third option. However, if his bat does not come around and his defense does not improve, he will likely be a minor league catcher for some time to come.
Sherman tweeted the Braves could be getting right-hander Casey Kelly in return. Kelly was once a top prospect for the Padres, but injuries have severely hampered his development through the system. He is still just 26, so there would be hope that he can rebound.
Tyler Goeddel Picked First in Rule 5 Draft
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The Philadelphia Phillies took Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Tyler Goeddel with the first pick of this year’s Rule 5 draft at the winter meetings.
Goeddel, 23, hit .279 with 12 home runs and 28 stolen bases for Tampa Bay's Double-A Montgomery affiliate last season. He was the 41st overall pick (first round) in 2011 and is coming off his best minor league season.
Teams pay $50,000 to pick a player in the Rule 5 draft, and that pick must stay on the drafting team’s major league roster throughout the next season or be offered back to the original team at $25,000.
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