Patriots vs. Texans: What's the Game Plan for New England?
A two-game losing streak typically incites panic around Foxborough, but there are reasons to remain calm, even as the New England Patriots have fallen out of the driver's seat for home-field advantage. Injuries and bizarre special teams mistakes have been the primary culprits in defeats against the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles. Thus, those losses have felt like a short-term aberration rather than an ominous long-term trend.
Still, the Pats could use a victory to keep up with the Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals in the standings. Playing a prime-time road game is not an easy spot, and despite their loss last week, the Houston Texans have generally appeared rejuvenated, winning four of their past five games. At home this season, the Texans are 4-2 and have yet to lose by more than one possession, which means the Patriots are likely in for a dogfight.
TOP NEWS
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Colts Release Kenny Moore
Projecting Every NFL Team's Starting Lineup ๐ฎ
Rookie WRs Who Will Outplay Their Draft Value ๐
While New England will be undermanned again this week, the execution has been sound for long stretches on both sides of the ball. The question now is whether the depleted Patriots can string together a full 60-minute effort without the types of game-altering lapses that proved fatal in the prior two defeats.
The Pats will have an unusual level of familiarity with Houston, given the numerous ties to Foxborough among the Texans' coaching staff and personnel. Read on for a full breakdown of how the Patriots can exploit that familiarity to earn a much-needed return to the win column.
Offensive Game Plan
When Bill Belichick compares someone to Lawrence Taylor, as he did with J.J. Watt earlier this week, it's not hard to discern who the Patriots' top priority will be when they have the ball. Like Taylor, Watt has transformed what 3-4 defensive ends are capable of. Despite breaking his hand, Watt will play and inevitably make his share of splash plays, but that does not mean he has to wreck the entire Patriots offensive game plan.
Last week, the Buffalo Bills did an excellent job of preventing Watt from disrupting the offense on a play-to-play basis. Though he did collect another sack to push his league-leading total to 13.5, Watt was conspicuously absent for most of the game, compiling just one tackle the entire afternoon.
Watt will line up in a variety of spots, but he's most played at left defensive end this year, especially in sub-packages. When he was on the end of the line, Buffalo typically used Charles Clay to double-team him. However, trap blocks are also a nice idea, as they invite Watt upfield before (theoretically) taking him out with a pulling blocker:
Because of his talent, Watt will often freelance, jumping in and out of gaps in an effort to subvert an opponent's blocking scheme and get into the backfield. He typically comes out on top over the long run, but offenses will occasionally catch him off guard with misdirection play calls like this.
What was most impressive about Buffalo's offensive game plan was not simply its ability to prevent Watt from creating negative plays for the offense but also its willingness to actually run at him. Clay, who spent much of the game helping his tackles block, again teamed up with a tackle for a textbook cut block, which knocked Watt to the ground and freed the edge for a long LeSean McCoy run:
The Patriots don't ask their linemen to move as much as the Bills do, but no team is going to clear Watt out of gaps with brute strength. New England's gap-blocking scheme does provide plenty of double-teaming opportunities, but the key will be how frequently Josh McDaniels can fool Watt into freelancing his way into trouble.
The two-time Defensive Player of the Year is the engine that keeps Houston's defense afloat, but the Texans have garnered a sneaky amount of pass-rushing depth this season. In particular, Houston has a nice sub-package personnel with Watt and Whitney Mercilus on the edges and former first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney rushing from the 3-technique spot. Earlier this season, Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson argued that this switch helped turn around Houston's season, even though he believes Clowney and Watt are playing out of position:
"Clowney, on the other hand, is still inexperienced and developing, and the tape shows him still playing with only rudimentary pass-rushing technique and tools. He is getting by on athleticism and raw ability, which would likely be far more effective on the edge in space. Even when you dive a little deeper, it seems likely the Texans would be better served with Clowney on the edge and Watt inside, rather than their current preference for the opposite.
There are numerous instances in the game, though, where we see the effect that having Watt, Clowney, and Mercilus on the field at the same time can have. However inexperienced and raw Clowney is as a rusher, he is still an athletic freak and no easy task for an offensive lineman to deal with. Watt, of course, is Watt, and therefore a walking nightmare to haunt the pre-snap daydreams of whatever poor unfortunate soul is tasked with blocking him, wherever he lines up.
"
According to TeamRankings.com, Houston ranks 10th in sack percentage at 6.85 percent, and while much of that is due to Watt's brilliance, Mercilus and Clowney also present physical mismatches against most linemen. The trio of former first-rounders has infused the Texans defense with an extra dose of athleticism and quickness, traits that were noticeably lacking the past few seasons.
The most logical way for New England to offset this problem is by running the ball well and consistently. Lost in last week's loss was that the Patriots actually executed well on the ground. In the first half, they ran for 81 yards on 16 carries, good for 5.1 yards per attempt. If special teams disasters had not forced Tom Brady to drop back 60 times, perhaps LeGarrette Blount could have literally carried the way to victory.
Regardless, Blount should get a chance to finish the job he started last week. For all its struggles in pass protection, New England's offensive line was quietly effective at run blocking against the Eagles. Multiple times, Blount gained chunks of yardage because of how far the line had pushed Philly's linemen downfield or the seal it had opened:
Most offensive lines, especially inexperienced ones without much chemistry together, are more comfortable executing in the running game, because it allows them to move forward and dictate the action rather than react to individual pass-rushers and pressure schemes. Blount would not only support New England's diminished receiving corps but also shield the offense from its biggest weakness.
Houston has been a middling run defense all season and ranks just 19th against the run by Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The game got away from New England last week, but asserting control on the ground and keeping the Texans' pass-rushers off Brady could give the Patriots a chance to stick with the game plan they appeared to draw up last Sunday.
Defensive Game Plan
While Watt will occupy the majority of McDaniels' attention this week, DeAndre Hopkins provides a similarly confounding challenge on the other side of the ball for Belichick and Matt Patricia. The Texans' third-year receiver has exploded in 2015, ranking second in the league in targets (152), third in receiving touchdowns (10) and third in yards (1,169).
The 6'1", 218-pounder isn't the most physically imposing receiver on paper, but his length and superb hands allow him to play like any of the league's big receivers, a la Dez Bryant and Julio Jones. Consequently, Hopkins is especially fearsome in the red zone, where he leads the league in targets (22), catches (12) and yards (115), to go along with six scores.
Hopkins makes his hay outside the numbers, where Bill O'Brien cleverly isolates him to cut off safety help. Double-teaming Hopkins is nice in theory, but with so much horizontal area for a defense to cover in the red zone, a safety cannot simply abandon his post and leave the seam exposed. Thus, we see lots of iso situations for Hopkins, like this touchdown against the New York Jets from two weeks ago:
That's an almost impossible situation for most cornerbacks, especially given Hopkins' ability to rise and high-point the football. With his ability to use his body to shield defensive backs away from the football, staying in phase to simply make a play on the ball is difficult enough in these jump-ball situations.
Hopkins likes to use his hands to create separation, so the best way for a defensive back to combat this is to engage in that hand fighting to push Hopkins to the sideline. Ex-Patriot Brandon Browner illustrated this technique a few weeks ago, jamming Hopkins off the line and cutting off the real estate the Texans receiver had to work with when he elevated to try to make the catch:
The Patriots no longer have Browner or anyone with his length, so the logical solution is probably to play some type of zone coverage in the red zone, using a cornerback (likely Malcolm Butler) to take away the deep perimeter routes, while a safety inside (likely Devin McCourty) helps on any deep in-breaking routes. No matter what, it is essential the Pats force Brian Hoyer to target other receivers, who have posted pedestrian numbers in comparison to Hopkins:
| DeAndre Hopkins | 148 | 1,169 | 2.21 | 97.5 |
| Cecil Shorts | 63 | 475 | 1.45 | 90.4 |
| Nate Washington | 70 | 543 | 1.45 | 95.1 |
| Keith Mumphrey | 28 | 129 | 0.65 | 48.1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 22 | 161 | 1.41 | -- |
| Jonathan Grimes | 24 | 142 | 1.37 | -- |
If the Texans cannot free Hopkins, don't expect Houston to turn to its backfield as an alternative solution. Since Arian Foster's season-ending knee injury in Week 7, the Texans have run the ball on 43.2 percent of their plays but have been held below 4.0 yards per carry in three of five games. And while they did average 4.9 yards per carry against Buffalo last week, their highest mark of the season, that looks like the anomaly rather than the trend.
New England hasn't been afraid to try a "rope-a-dope" strategy in the past against teams with weak rushing attacks, leaving the box light and essentially daring the offense to audible to running calls. Belichick typically employs that strategy with better passing attacks than Houston's, but taking a man out of the box might mean an extra defender on Hopkins.ย
Moreover, even when Hoyer doesn't feed his top target, most of Houston's passing game entails predefined reads on three- and five-step drops. Hoyer is a cerebral quarterback who lacks the arm talent to create big plays out of scheme, so O'Brien has built the offense around a reined-in approach that avoids mistakes. Additionally, play-action is a big part of the Texans passing game; per Pro Football Focus, Hoyer uses play fakes on 25.8 percent of his dropbacks, the fifth-highest rate in the league. We can expect to see lots of bootlegs like the one below, much like what the Broncos presented two weeks ago:
If the Pats can force Houston's offense into long down-and-distance situations, though, New England will hold a decided advantage. In 3rd-and-7 or longer, the Texans have converted just 27.6 percent of the time, which ranks 17th in the league. Moreover, per PFF's charting, Hoyer has compiled a mediocre 55.4 percent accuracy rate when pressured, which ranks 28th out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks this season.
New England has failed to generate pressure in timely situations the past two weeks but still possesses a big talent edge over Houston's relatively anonymous offensive line. The nature of the Texans' passing scheme will prevent the Pats' rushers from generating consistent down-to-down pressure, but on third downs, the front seven needs better situational execution than what it has provided over the past six quarters.
Key Players and Matchups
Every week in this space, we'll list two offensive and two defensive players critical to the game plan who haven't necessarily received much attention in the sections above. Not all of these selections will necessarily be the most obvious choices, but each figures to play a key factor in New England's chances of victory.
Brandon LaFell
Is this finally the week LaFell gets going? Scott Chandler and James White came up with season-best receiving performances last week in filling the Gronkowski-Edelman void, but LaFell has remained conspicuously absent from the offense. Despite receiving eight or nine targets in each of the past three games, LaFell has yet to exceed four catches or 66 receiving yards in that stretch and is still looking for his first touchdown of 2015.
Houston provides a nice matchup for LaFell to snap out of his slump. According to Football Outsiders, the Texans rank 27th in the league in defending No. 2 wide receivers. Rookie cornerback Kevin Johnson struggled against Sammy Watkins last week, and while LaFell is not quite on that level, there should be opportunities for him to win more frequently outside the numbers this week.
Patrick Chung
The starting strong safety missed practice Wednesday but has returned on a limited basis the past two days and is questionable to play, per the official injury report. Though the Pats do have nice depth at the safety position, New England could use Chung's presence to combat tight end Ryan Griffin, who has surprisingly emerged as a viable receiving option for Houston since returning in Week 10 from short-term injured reserve.
In that stretch, Griffin has averaged 36 receiving yards on 4.5 targets per game, scoring each of the past two weeks. With McCourty possibly bracketing Hopkins over the top, Chung could have his hands full against the hulking 6'6", 254-pound tight end. When the Texans reach the red zone, keep an eye on Griffin, who might be Hoyer's second target on plays where the Patriots can cover Hopkins.
Chandler Jones
Once the NFL's sack leader, Jones has gone quiet the past three games, failing to get home to the quarterback and compiling just nine total pressures in that span. According to PFF, Jones ranks just 22nd out of 33 4-3 defensive ends in pass-rushing productivity during this drought, a steep drop-off from when he ranked fifth after the first 10 weeks.
Sunday's matchup against All-Pro left tackle Duane Brown doesn't provide much relief, either. Since missing two games early in the season with a thumb injury, Brown has been his usual stellar self. Even so, the Patriots need Jones to overcome these kinds of matchups as a foundational front-seven player, and they could use more splash plays from their best edge defender.
James White
The second-year back had his most explosive game of the season and played an underrated role in helping spur the Patriots' fourth-quarter rally. Even though he only received two carries, White compiled a team-high 10 catches and 115 receiving yards, adding his third touchdown of the season to top things off.
If Gronkowski is still not ready to go, White should remain a similarly prominent part of the passing attack. He outsnapped Brandon Bolden 51 to 19 last week, per PFF's counts, and provided no reason for Belichick to change that distribution. Given the lack of speed on Houston's linebacking corps, look for White to follow up his strong Week 13 showing with another steady dose of plays out of the backfield.
Prediction
We missed on our prediction for the first time last week (though granted, predicting the outcome of Patriots game typically doesn't come with too much doubt). Even though New England has historically responded well in these adverse situations, back-to-back losses will raise doubt about any team, especially one with as many injuries as the Pats have.
Like the Eagles last week, the Texans are a fairly straightforward team schematically, which should leave the Pats well-prepared. New England probably executed better than Philadelphia on offense and defense over the balance of the game, but it has been frustrating to see a typically buttoned-up squad shoot itself in the foot so regularly since the fourth quarter of the Broncos game in Week 12.
At some point, one would expect positive regression to the mean for this team. Last week's special teams disaster was a historically fluky outlier, and if the Pats can simply play the Texans straight up, the odds probably favor New England outplaying Houston.
Watt and Hopkins are capable of making game-changing plays that ruin that flow, of course, but what we said last week still applies: The Patriots are the superior team and should control the game's rhythm. This time, look for New England to be on the right side of the game's biggest plays to snap its two-game losing streak.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Texans 24
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
