NFL Playoff Scenarios: AFC, NFC Week 14 Picture and Postseason Predictions
When NFL analysts sing songs of teams that peak at the right time, this upcoming four-week slice of the league calendar is usually what they're referring to.
There's just one month of football left to play, with just four games remaining on the schedule for 30 NFL teams—excluding the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins who wrap up Week 13 on Monday Night Football. So if any teams are destined to mount furious playoff pushes, they will have to start very soon.
With the exception of the NFC South, which was claimed by the Carolina Panthers Sunday, every division is still mathematically up for grabs. And even without the possibility of a division title, two NFC South rivals make up the last two teams out of the current playoff field.
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Postseason berths will be won and lost in Week 14. So, in preparation for that, here is the playoff picture as it stands after Sunday's action and a prediction of what teams will comprise the field at season's end.
Current Playoff Picture
| Seed | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals (10-2) | Carolina Panthers (12-0) |
| 2 | Denver Broncos (10-2) | Arizona Cardinals (10-2) |
| 3 | New England Patriots (10-2) | Green Bay Packers (8-4) |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts (6-6) | Washington Redskins (5-6)* |
| 5 | New York Jets (7-5) | Minnesota Vikings (8-4) |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) | Seattle Seahawks (7-5) |
*Washington hosts Dallas Monday night
In the Hunt
| AFC | NFC |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) |
| Buffalo Bills (6-6) | Atlanta Falcons (6-6) |
| Houston Texans (6-6) | Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) |
| Oakland Raiders (5-7) | New York Giants (5-7) |
| Miami Dolphins (5-7) | Chicago Bears (5-7) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) | New Orleans Saints (4-8) |
| Baltimore Ravens (4-8) | St. Louis Rams (4-8) |
| Detroit Lions (4-8) | |
| San Francisco 49ers (4-8) | |
| Dallas Cowboys (3-8) |
Predicted Final Playoff Picture
| Seed | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots (14-2) | Carolina Panthers (16-0) |
| 2 | Denver Broncos (13-3) | Arizona Cardinals (12-4) |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) | Green Bay Packers (12-4) |
| 4 | Houston Texans (9-7) | Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) | Seattle Seahawks (11-5) |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) | Minnesota Vikings (10-6) |
Featured Playoff Teams That Will Reach the Finish
Kansas City Chiefs
There's an excellent chance the Chiefs won't lose another game this regular season.
The combined winning percentage of Kansas City's remaining opponents is .291, with Oakland representing the most menacing challenger left on the schedule. Winning those last four games would cap off a 10-game winning streak to close out the season for the Chiefs.
But despite the optics of Kansas City's recent run of form, the Chiefs aren't a dominant team. Even with perhaps the softest remaining schedule in the NFL, they could drop a game in their remaining four. The most realistic opportunity for another Kansas City loss this season is a Week 17 rematch of Week 13's win in Oakland.
And, as the Kansas City Star's Sam Mellinger points out, even the Chiefs' 14-point margin of victory in that game is not an appropriate indicator of their performance:
""They should have lost this one. They were outgained by 129 yards, committed 11 penalties and made some aggravating mistakes of lost focus and composure. In the last five seasons, only 13 of 110 teams to gain so few yards and give up so many won their games. None of the winners committed this many penalties."
"
All that being said, Kansas City has room to lose another game and still retain its wild-card playoff berth. But it's possible the Chiefs don't even cash in on that available loss, and it's unlikely they'll drop two more this season.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have lost two of their last three games, and they play the second-seeded Cardinals next week. But the rest of the NFC has failed to make much headway toward a playoff-worthy record, while Minnesota has built itself a cushion that should sustain it for another month.
The only above-.500 teams the NFC has to offer are currently in the playoff field, and the conference's two teams with even 6-6 records are paper tigers. Five of Atlanta's six wins came in the first five weeks of the season, and the Buccaneers play with the inconsistency of a team quarterbacked by a rookie, albeit an impressive one.
The Vikings play four difficult games to close out the season, with the Cardinals, Bears, Giants and Packers comprising Minnesota's remaining schedule. But Week 13's 38-7 loss to the Seahawks may be the wake-up call the Vikings need to convince them to hitch their wagon to Adrian Peterson in the stretch.
And Peterson said as much after the game (via ESPN's Ben Goessling):
""As one of the leaders on the team, seeing how the running game has been all season, you definitely want to be able to go out and establish the run and let things feed off of that. To finish with eight carries, it's tough. I feel like we're able to sit back, evaluate some things again and get back to what we do."
"
Minnesota can afford to lose two more games and still retain its playoff spot. And Peterson's persistence will ensure they don't lose more than that.
Featured Playoff Teams That Will Fail to Qualify
New York Jets
The AFC wild-card race is a mess, and it's bound to claim a victim or two. New York is the team that will come closest to the promised land without gaining entry.
Gaudy numbers from Ryan Fitzpatrick—390 yards—and a check in the win column do well to disguise it, but the Jets' 7-5 record is thanks in large part to their Week 13 opponent. The Giants sacrificed a 10-point second-half lead, and Eli Manning threw an interception on the Jets 4-yard line that rendered an 11-minute drive pointless.
New York has games against Tennessee and Dallas in the next two weeks, so it could certainly be in the thick of the playoff race following those results. But New England, who will be pursuing a first-round bye, and Buffalo, potentially playing for a wild-card berth, are the Jets' final two opponents.
In this muddied AFC wild-card field, the 2-2 record New York will likely compile in the final month of the season should be just short of playoff qualification.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts didn't turn in a particularly inspired performance Sunday night in Pittsburgh.
Indianapolis lost previously unbeaten starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to injury in the fourth quarter. But the Steelers had already built a 38-10 lead before that point, so it's hardly a reason to dismiss the abysmal scoreline.
The Colts' 6-6 record and a head-to-head victory over the Texans is enough for the division lead at this point. But Indianapolis is in no position to survive the stretch run, despite a mostly favorable schedule.
Depending on the extent of Hasselbeck's Sunday night injury, Charlie Whitehurst could be the man who leads the Colts into Jacksonville. But there's no scenario in which Andrew Luck is healthy enough to play next week.
CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports that Luck could be available for Indy's Week 15 matchup with the Texans, but that's not even a given.
"Luck is most likely to have a realistic opportunity to play in Week 15, given how he is coming along, though Week 16 would be more probable," La Canfora wrote.
Considering Houston's meeting with New England next week, Indianapolis has some conceivable breathing room while it waits for its quarterbacks to heal up. But a Week 15 matchup between the Colts and the Texans will go a long way in deciding the division, and right now Houston has the upper hand in that contest.
Featured Outsiders That Will Crack the Final Playoff Field
Philadelphia Eagles
Usually all it takes is a pulse to qualify as the hottest team in the NFC East, but the Eagles provided actual reason for optimism in Week 13.
Philadelphia's 35-28 victory over New England wasn't even as close as the final score indicates. And for the bulk of the game, it looked like a blowout. But the win also wasn't an intimation that Chip Kelly's supposedly revolutionary offense is fixed.
Sam Bradford threw for just 120 yards, and Darren Sproles led the team in rushing with 66 yards. Two defensive scores and a Sproles punt return to the house accounted for most of Philadelphia's offense in the game.
But regardless of how it came about, it still counts as a win. And those are hot commodities in the NFC East.
The Eagles close out the regular season against the Bills, the Cardinals, the Redskins and the Giants. After venturing outside the division for games against two teams with records at or above .500, Philadelphia returns to the comforts of the NFC East to end the year.
That schedule is just favorable enough to allow the Eagles to earn a division title at 8-8.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Somehow, the Steelers managed to stay afloat while Ben Roethlisberger was being duct-taped back together by Pittsburgh's training staff for the bulk of the season. Now that he's back in relatively good health, and despite the loss of Le'Veon Bell for the year, the Steelers look dangerous.
Roethlisberger utilized the invisible zip-line that connects him and Antonio Brown to collect 118 of his 364 yards in a 45-10 win over the Colts Sunday night. The game was the latest addition to a season for Brown that has him second in the NFL in both yards and touchdowns through the air.
Even without Bell, the Steelers look set at the running back position. DeAngelo Williams has collected more than 100 total yards in four of his last five games, including 134 on the ground in the win over Indianapolis.
And on top of all that, Pittsburgh might be the most entertaining team in football with its refusal to kick extra points on a regular basis. The Steelers just set the league record for successful two-point conversions in a season with four games left to play (via ESPN's Jeremy Fowler).
Pittsburgh will be tested in the next two weeks with back-to-back games against the AFC's top two teams. The Steelers travel to Cincinnati and host Denver before closing out the year with trips to Baltimore and Cleveland.
With Roethlisberger healthy and Brown running routes in front of him, Pittsburgh is capable of upsetting the Bengals or the Broncos in the coming weeks. After that, the Steelers will waltz over their remaining division rivals and into the playoffs.
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