NFL Predictions Week 13: Fantasy Guide, Odds Projections and Expert Tips

Any fantasy football managers facing a Rodgers on Thursday night felt great until the final play.

Starting a must-win Week 13 for several players looking to lock down a playoff bid, the Green Bay Packers entered halftime shut out by the Detroit Lions. Those who exhausted a premium pick on Aaron Rodgers watched the star quarterback labor through another showing below his elevated standards.

A little serendipity changed everything. After a series of desperate laterals ended in a facemask penalty, Rodgers found tight end Richard Rodgers for a 61-yard touchdown on an untimed down. Aside from giving Green Bay a last-second victory, the Rodgers pairing also saved several fantasy seasons with their late heroics.

Before fixating over every play on Sunday, remember not to angrily throw any devices until the final whistle. It only takes one play to turn frustration into jubilation, and gamers never know when that moment will strike.

There's no way to avoid this agony (aside from going outside and not watching football all day), but analyzing Week 13's matchups and betting data, courtesy of Odds Shark, can help produce a pleasant outcome to a weekend of worrying.

Away	Home	Spread	O/U	Prediction
Houston Texans	Buffalo Bills	BUF -3	41.5	24-23 BUF
San Francisco 49ers	Chicago Bears	CHI -8.5	43.5	26-16 CHI
Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	CIN -10.5	43.5	28-14 CIN
Baltimore Ravens	Miami Dolphins	MIA -3.5	42	23-17 MIA
Seattle Seahawks	Minnesota Vikings	SEA -1	42	23-17 SEA
New York Jets	New York Giants	NYJ -1	46.5	30-27 NYJ
Arizona Cardinals	St. Louis Rams	ARI -4.5	43	31-13 ARI
Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Even	46	28-23 TB
Jacksonville Jaguars	Tennessee Titans	TEN -2.5	43.5	22-20 JAX
Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	KC -2.5	44.5	27-21 KC
Denver Broncos	San Diego Chargers	DEN -3.5	44	23-20 DEN
Carolina Panthers	New Orleans Saints	CAR -7	50	32-24 CAR
Philadelphia Eagles	New England Patriots	NE -10.5	49	30-20 NE
Indianapolis Colts	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -7.5	49	37-27 PIT
Dallas Cowboys	Washington Redskins	WAS -4	42	24-16 WAS

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, New York Jets

Brad Penner/Associated Press

Ryan Fitzpatrick looked ready to fade back into obscurity, surrendering two interceptions in back-to-back games. The New York Jets quarterback, however, halted the downfall with four passing touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins last weekend, making him one of three signal-callers to compile at least 20 scores through the air this season.

The ultimate case of roster depth, the 33-year-old probably sits on most fantasy benches barring two starting quarterback slots or the ideal matchup. He'll get the latter this weekend in the New York Giants, who allow a league-worst 309.2 passing yards per game.

As noted by Rotoworld's Rich Hribar, the G-Men have allowed four straight top-12 fantasy scorers under center. Although a boring pick with limited upside, Fitzpatrick has registered at least two touchdowns in nine games this season. The combination of matchup and stability make him FantasyPros' No. 9 quarterback in consensus rankings including Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. 

The veteran will have to watch out for turnovers, as the Giants have snatched up 14 interceptions. He also must curb his usual December swoon. According to ESPN.com's Rich Cimini, Fitzpatrick has compiled 27 touchdowns and 30 interceptions during the final month since 2009. 

Even if he coughs up a few picks, he'll have all day in the pocket to pile up the yards with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Owners looking for a fill-in can do far worse.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

On a different timeline where Matt Forte never sprained his MCL, he's probably the weekend's top-ranked running back. The Chicago Bears are favored by 8.5 points to beat the San Francisco 49ers, who have yielded the fourth-most NFL.com fantasy points to opposing backs.

Instead, he's No. 14 on FantasyPros' standard running back rankings. Hopefully he fares better than No. 13 Eddie Lacy, who amassed one total yard on Thursday night.

The guarded skepticism is certainly understandable. In his Thanksgiving return, the Bears back received 16 touches to Jeremy Langford's 13. The rookie, who shined in Forte's absence, punched in a one-yard touchdown. FantasyGuru.com's Joe Dolan observed Langford's superior goal-line success:

Yet Forte grasped Chicago's other five red-zone runs, per Hribar. Loyalty to veterans often trumps efficiency, and the eight-year pro netted 23 touches per game before getting sidelined. He won't get the full pie, but the Bears will feed him enough slices.

Playing at home against San Francisco presents the perfect opportunity for both players to receive a hearty dose of carries. While Forte won't deliver top-tier results on a weekly basis in a timeshare, owners can start him with confidence this Sunday. 

Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Allen Robinson is 73 yards away from becoming the Jacksonville Jaguars' first 1,000-yard wide receiver in 10 years. Averaging 84.3 yards per game this season, that's well in his reach against the Tennessee Titans, whom he burned for 113 yards on Nov. 19.

"It’s an accomplishment, but I’m not really too big on individual things," Robinson said in an ESPN.com report. "The better we do as an offense, the individual goals, they’re going to be there. But I think our main focus as a whole offense is to do well and be a cohesive unit."

That unit, however, will miss a key component in Week 13. On Friday morning, the team confirmed that fellow wideout Allen Hurns won't play due to a concussion:

Jacksonville now must reallocate 6.5 targets per game. While Robinson is the top dog with 100 targets, 927 yards and eight scores, Hurns delivered seven touchdowns. Tight end Julius Thomas could fill the scoring void, but the No. 1 pass-catcher is likely to get even more involved.  

Against a defense allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles should look to extend the vertical game against Tennessee. Per 4for4football's Chris Raybon, no receiver has benefited from more deep looks than Robinson:

Since ending Week 1 with one 27-yard catch against Josh Norman's Carolina Panthers, the 22-year-old rising star has exceeded 50 yards in every game, offering 382 yards in four contests without a touchdown. Treat him as a top-10 option.