NFL Fantasy Football Week 12: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

The pressure of the playoff push in fantasy football is peaking, as we now have just two weeks left in the regular season. The main ability is availability at this stage of the season. Luck is key in avoiding injuries, but we find proactive, progressive roster management helps even when luck—Andrew or otherwise—isn't on our side. 

We've seen waiver wonders such as Ron Dayne and Drew Bennett act as deciding factors in fantasy titles in years past, just as we've witnessed superstars lead the way. 

Can the Baltimore Ravens' Buck Allen thrive as the every-down feature back on a decimated offense? Will Spencer Ware run wild once again in place of Charcandrick West for the Kansas City Chiefs? Sunday will answer these and many more critical questions. 

One trick we can employ as the playoffs loom is to consolidate ideal matchup defenses for the stretch run. The widely available—and recently productive—Detroit Lions' D/ST, for example, hosts the fallible San Francisco 49ers offense in an all-important Week 16 contest, which is championship week in many leagues.

If you have some roster barnacles with no chance of ever starting for your team, feel free to target the top playoff matchups where possible.

Please join us in discussing the key undervalued commodities, such as streaming defenses and waiver-wire wonders, as well as the major injuries impacting this specific week's market. As always, feel free to post your lineup conundrums and questions for Week 12 in the comments below. 

Game-Time Decisions: Kendall Wright Returns

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Injuries can strike at random and without reason in the risk-laden NFL landscape, while fantasy managers are left to navigate the questionable calls the NFL offers each week.

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported earlier this week that the Atlanta Falcons' Devonta Freeman will sit versus the Minnesota Vikings, as he remains hindered by the concussion protocol. Thus, the door is open for Tevin Coleman to shine or struggle in his place.

Let's delve into this week's most meaningful injury scenarios. 

Travis Kelce and Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce, the team's talented tight end, tweaked his ankle in practice late this week and is questionable with both ankle and groin ailments, per Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star. 

Kelce may still play. But we suggest having some emergency alternatives in place, with Jacob Tamme and Will Tye as possible bargain buys. 

West, meanwhile, didn't practice all week and is regarded as questionable. Spencer Ware should undoubtedly be owned as an insurance policy behind West in all formats. 

Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans

If we divide Wright's fantasy points so far this season using game logs from his player page and via box scores, we find he has averaged 1.19 fantasy points per target from Marcus Mariota this season in ESPN leagues, while he has netted just 0.85 points per target from Zach Mettenberger.

Mariota's struggles on vertical and big-play routes could improve with Wright back this week after the receiver sat out several games with an MCL injury, as Jason Wolf of the Tennessean reports. With the Oakland Raiders' reeling pass defense up next, Wright has a shot at decent production. 

Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins

Landry missed practice Friday with a knee ailment, but reports from Miami suggest we'll see him in action, according to Chris Perkins of the Sun-Sentinel. The New York Jets' Darrelle Revis, on the other hand, will sit this one out, freeing Landry for some needed upside, per SportsCenter.

Michael Floyd and John Brown, Arizona Cardinals

Floyd's recovery from a lingering hamstring injury has progressed well, which indicates he should be available for this Sunday's inviting tilt in San Francisco, per ESPN.com's Josh Weinfuss. Brown (hamstring), meanwhile, is listed as probable. 

Danny Amendola, New England Patriots

ESPN.com's Mike Reiss reports Amendola won't travel with the team to Denver, which rules him out after a knee ailment suffered in Week 11. A depleted depth chart could offer undrafted free agent Chris Harper fun upside in daily fantasy tournaments and as a deep-league stash in points-per-reception formats. Mostly, it's going to signal more Rob Gronkowski in the middle of the field. 

Waiver-Wire Wonders for Week 12: Brian Hoyer Nets a Soft Setup

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Late in the season, as rosters erode and bye weeks loom, it's helpful to identify some widely available players with the potential to provide instant production from the waiver wire.

While these aren't stars or consistent plays, here are some of the better bargain buys in the league this weekend.

Quarterback Values 

Brian Hoyer, Houston Texans: An ideal bargain buy in daily fantasy and as a top streaming option in deeper season-long leagues, Hoyer faces the inviting New Orleans Saints defense. That unit is ceding 4.9 more fantasy points per game to opposing arms than any other team in football, using ESPN standard scoring. The Texans lead the NFL with 43 pass attempts per game, with friendly metrics suggesting Hoyer should start over some bigger names this Sunday. 

Josh McCown, Cleveland Browns: Even as the implied point total is quite low for Monday's battle of the current and former Browns, the Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers, per ESPN.com. Fire up this widely available AFC arm, especially in daily formats.

Running Back Bargains

Shaun Draughn, San Francisco 49ers: Before you laugh, consider that Draughn has 173 yards from scrimmage and 12 receptions over his past two outings. At an absolutely decimated running back position eroded by injury and poor performance, available shares (he's available in nearly 70 percent of ESPN leagues as of press time) sound prudent in deeper PPR formats. 

James White, New England Patriots: The Denver Broncos are in the middle of the pack in fantasy versus running backs, while White could again thrive on meaningful third-down usage. While he's no Dion Lewis, effective change-of-pace work in a game that favors his skill set could produce worthy flex numbers in Denver. 

Bilal Powell, New York Jets: This change-of-pace passing back can prove a bit game-flow-dependent as he requires receptions to compile production. But he will make for a viable PPR asset in deeper formats against the Dolphins. 

Waiver Wideouts

Cecil Shorts III, Houston Texans: One of four players to throw a touchdown for the Texans this season and arguably the best signal-caller of this not-so-exclusive bunch, Shorts has enjoyed creative deployment and could see another nice outing against the Saints secondary. The unit is ceding the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, as rated by ESPN standard scoring.

Rueben Randle, New York Giants: Is it ever fun or inspiring when you start Randle in fantasy football? No, it is not. However, we can still find some fun if he can get free versus a fallible Washington Redskins secondary, which is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position this season, per ESPN.com.

Chris Harper, New England Patriots: Look, we're going deep on this one, as this undrafted free agent is owned in just 1 percent of ESPN leagues. For those in deep, desperate scenarios, Harper and New England's Keshawn Martin could prove intriguing as Tom Brady's targets this week. 

Tight End Streamers

Jacob Tamme, Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons ruled out Leonard Hankerson yet again, which makes Tamme a meaningful target share as the team hosts the Vikings, who have been friendly to the position this season, per ESPN.com. 

Will Tye, New York Giants: For the deep and desperate among us, let's look at Tye as an emergency option with some upside. Larry Donnell (neck) isn't going to play again this season, while quarterback Eli Manning has long liked to check down to the position and work the middle in the red zone.

Streaming of Vegas: Let the Desert Help with Identifying Fantasy Defenses

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

How can we leverage the point-projection system Vegas and offshore sports books produce each week in seeking streaming D/ST options? The foundation of the idea has us liking favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold ended up in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time.

Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

We can also use these trends to help identify a potentially productive under-the-radar D/ST unit for Week 12. 

The Cleveland Browns defense is missing some key secondary talent. But it can thrive, given ideal matchup metrics versus a decimated Baltimore Ravens offense that is down to backups at nearly every skill position. With a point total hovering around 43, per Odds Shark, shares of this widely available D/ST could prove prudent and profitable this week.