MLB Free Agents: Risky Players and the Teams That Should Take a Chance on Them

A big part of assessing the long list of free agents each year is identifying the players who stand a good chance of bouncing back. In the past, we’ve seen plenty of “risky” free agents go on to successfully prove their worth.

In 2014, the two Comeback Player of the Year Award winners—Casey McGehee and Chris Young—were originally considered somewhat risky signings prior to that season. But front-office executives in Miami and Seattle saw something in their potential and decided to take a chance.

Players on this list are low-cost signings who can potentially bring a high reward. While a lot of them have struggled in certain facets of the game recently, they still have something to offer teams with needs.

While assessing players, we’ll look at what exactly makes them a risky signing as well as which team would benefit most from taking a chance and seeing what they have to offer.

Garrett Jones, 34, 1B/RF

Garrett Jones is considered a risk because of the down year he had with the New York Yankees last season in which he was designated for assignment twice before ultimately being released on August 20.

He played in just 57 games in 2015, striking out 37 times.

But as the MLB.com video above demonstrates, Jones still has some raw power to offer. He’s only one year removed from a 15-homer season with the Miami Marlins.

Jones hit 15 or more home runs every year from 2009 to 2014, including 27 during the 2012 campaign. With their need for more left-handed bats to help balance out their lineup, the San Diego Padres would be smart to take a chance on Jones.

David Freese, 32, 3B

Matt Brown/Getty Images

David Freese has been unable to hit for a high average since coming over to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals prior to the 2014 season. 

Similar to Jones, Freese’s high strikeout rate makes him somewhat of a risky free-agent signing. In 2015, he struck out 107 times. Prior to that he had 124 strikeouts in 2014, 106 in 2013 and 122 in 2012.

He also had a low walk percentage of 6.6 last season and an on-base percentage of .323.

However, his home run numbers started to rise once again, as he was able to slug 14 long balls in 121 games in 2015. It appears Freese has evolved into a Mark Reynolds-like player, as it’s usually all or nothing with him at the plate.

Nevertheless, he would still be a good acquisition for a team hungry for additional power. The Chicago White Sox ranked 26th in the league in team home runs last season. With their holes at third base, Freese could be a good fit on the South Side.

Tim Lincecum, 31, RHP

Still only 31 years old, Tim Lincecum could offer a team a high upside if given the chance to perform. But what makes him a risky free agent are his health issues as well as the down years he’s had the past four seasons. 

As columnist Anthony Castrovince points out in the MLB.com video above, Lincecum only pitched 76.1 innings last year.

His fastball velocity has dipped from an average of 94 mph in 2008 to 87.5 in 2015.

But with improved health, Lincecum has the potential to bounce back. As Yahoo Sports writer Jeff Passan reports, Lincecum is rehabbing well following hip surgery in September.

The Seattle Mariners seem like an obvious team to go after Lincecum, given their need for both rotation and bullpen depth. Lincecum is also a Washington native, and pitching close to his dad, who has been his lifelong coach, could relieve a lot of pressure for the right-hander.

Jimmy Rollins, 36, SS

Throughout his career, Jimmy Rollins has had a reputation for being a great clubhouse leader and teammate. As the MLB.com video above shows, he always brings a certain amount of fun to the ballpark.

The risk factors with Rollins are his age and slower bat, which produced only a .224 batting average in 2015. What’s worse, he ranked 135th in the league in OBP, with a .285 mark.

However, Rollins is only one year removed from a 17-homer season. He could provide a good infield depth option, or bat off the bench, for a young team looking to add veterans. The Atlanta Braves, who ranked last in the majors in home runs in 2015, fit that description and could benefit from taking a chance on Rollins.

Trevor Cahill, 27, RHP

At 27 years old, Trevor Cahill is the youngest player on this list. However, he is a fairly risky free agent due to both his rough 2014 season and the splits he had with the Braves and Chicago Cubs last season.

Cahill only won three games during the 2014 campaign and finished with a 5.61 ERA. In 15 games with the Braves last year, his ERA ballooned to 7.52. Then he signed with the Cubs midseason, and for whatever reason, shined as a member of their bullpen. 

In 17.0 innings pitched for the Cubs, Cahill had a WHIP of 0.765. He continued to pitch well in the postseason, as the MLB.com video above shows, compiling a 3.38 ERA in his first taste of playoff action. 

As you don’t know exactly what you are going to get with Cahill, there is still some risk associated with him. But the strong finish to the season is reason enough for any team to take a look at him.

A reunion with the team that drafted him, the Oakland Athletics, makes sense. General Manager David Forst has already told MLB.com writer Brian McTaggart that adding bullpen arms is one of the team’s top priorities this offseason.

Oakland finished last in the American League West largely due to the fact that it could not close out tight ball games.

Dillon Gee, 29, RHP

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

After pitching for the New York Mets his entire career, Dillon Gee now gets the chance to explore his value on the free-agent market. But after posting some suspect numbers both at the major and minor league level during 2015, he could prove a risky signing. 

Gee’s ERA jumped from 4.00 in 2014 to 5.90 in 2015, and he had some personal issues with the way the Mets handled him. Instead of accepting his new role in the bullpen on a club with a plethora of young arms, Gee came off as slightly selfish when he was perhaps too vocal about the change. 

“I’m almost at the point now where I just don’t even care anymore,” Gee told New York Times reporter Tim Rohan. “I mean, I’m kind of just over it all.”

A week later, the Mets designated him for assignment.

It’s clear he wants to start, and if he can improve his attitude a bit, he could have a great bounce-back season. Two years ago, Gee went 12-11 with a 3.62 ERA while pitching 199.0 innings.

As the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports, the Colorado Rockies are putting an emphasis on pitching this offseason. Thus, Colorado could prove to be a viable landing spot for Gee. In three career starts at Coors Field, Gee is 2-1 with a 4.08 ERA.

Jeff Samardzija, 30, RHP

One of the most intriguing names on this list, Jeff Samardzija is coming off a terrible season in which he struggled from April all the way through September.

The main cause for concern with Samardzija is the fact that he allowed a major league-leading 118 earned runs in 2015. He left the ball up in the zone far too much, as the sequence in the MLB.com video above shows, and was hit hard for 29 homers. 

As the Daily Herald’s Matt Spiegel pointed out, Samardzija inexplicably stopped using his plus fastball as much. How could a pitcher who had such a low ERA in 2014 (2.99) become the league leader in runs? Maybe the pitching coach is to blame?

For Samardzija it makes sense to try to reunite with the Cubs. He became a star with that organization, and there’s a good chance their coaching staff could help him get back on track. At 30 years old, he still has a lot to offer.

Edwin Jackson, 32, RHP

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

Edwin Jackson lost 18 games as a starter for the Cubs in 2013. The next season, he lost 15 games. Those two years in themselves make Jackson somewhat of a risk for any team looking to add pitching.

Long denounced as one of the worst signings in Cubs history, Jackson actually managed to resurrect his career last year thanks to strong performances out of the bullpen.

The change in roles has completely altered his effectiveness. Before being unfairly released by the Cubs in July, Jackson had 2-1 record and 23 strikeouts in 31 innings pitched. 

Then, after signing with the Braves, he continued to pitch well in relief. In 24 games with Atlanta, he had a 2.92 ERA and a WHIP of 0.932. Since Jackson seemed so comfortable there, it would make sense for the Braves to do all they can to bring him back.

Tommy Hunter, 29, RHP

Similar to Samardzija, Tommy Hunter had a down year in 2015 following some successful seasons in 2014 and 2013.

Also like Samardzija, Hunter’s second-half stats last year are particularly alarming—after being acquired by the Cubs at the trading deadline, Hunter gave up 10 earned runs in 15.2 innings. 

But again, this is a guy who has had some gains in the past. Two years ago he was one of the best relief pitchers in the AL. While his struggles in the National League are puzzling, Hunter is only one year removed from a season in Baltimore in which he went 3-2 with a 2.97 ERA.

That fact alone makes Hunter worth the risk, and perhaps a return to the AL makes most sense. He has also shown consistent health over the past four seasons, and as the MLB.com video above shows, he can close out a game if called upon. In 2014, Hunter had 11 saves. 

Given the bullpen troubles in Detroit last season, the Tigers are one candidate to take a chance on Hunter.

Mark Reynolds, 32, 1B/3B

It’s no secret that Mark Reynolds has had trouble hitting for contact in his career. Similar to Freese, Reynolds’ strikeout numbers have been consistently high for years. 

In fact, Reynolds has struck out at least 120 times in all nine years of his career.

But what’s intriguing about him as a free agent is his versatility. He played first base, third base, second base and the outfield for the Cardinals last season. Simply put, managers love that. 

On top of his .929 career fielding percentage, Reynolds is one year removed from a homer-happy season in which he hit 22 long balls. While he digressed a bit last season with a total of 13 in 2015, he still showed solid pop both in the first half and second half.

The powerful swing evident in the MLB.com video above would be a good fit for a team that competes in a smaller ballpark. For example, Reynolds could provide a good veteran presence for the Rockies if they do not re-sign Justin Morneau.

Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.