Predicting Surprise Destinations for Top MLB Offseason Targets
From Zack Greinke to Aroldis Chapman, both the MLB free-agent market and the trade block are stocked with impact arms.
For now, no one knows just where exactly those stars will end up. However, after considering team needs for 2016 and taking into account all the latest buzz, here are some surprise destinations that make sense as potential landing spots.
The list that follows includes the top five free agents from Bleacher Report's big board and the two most-prominent names on the trade front. Pitchers dominate the list, but there's also room for a few big hitters who should make a big difference for their new employers in 2016.
7. LF Justin Upton
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The Surprise Destination: Baltimore Orioles
With reigning home run champ Chris Davis potentially leaving Camden Yards in free agency, the Baltimore Orioles will likely need to reel in a big bat.
Justin Upton, who's cracked at least 26 home runs in each of the past three seasons, has the pop to fill that role. The 28-year-old would also be a strong fit with his glove, as he could take over in left field for the O's. Last season, the players who patrolled that spot combined to post a .640 OPS, which was the fourth-worst mark in the bigs.
The Orioles have expressed an interest in the masher in the not-too-distant past. At the end of July, Baltimore talked to the San Diego Padres about the possibility of acquiring Upton before the trade deadline, per Jayson Stark of ESPN.
6. RF Jason Heyward
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The Surprise Destination: Los Angeles Angels
Bringing Jason Heyward to the Big A would give the Los Angeles Angels one crazy-good defensive outfield.
In such a scenario, the three-time Gold Glove winner Heyward would play right, the 2015 Gold Glover Kole Calhoun would shift to left and 2015 Gold Glove finalist Mike Trout would hold down center.
Adding Heyward to the outfield mix would come at a high cost. As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports predicted, the right fielder's next payday "could approach, if not exceed, $200 million."
Even if Hewyard does land a 10-year megadeal in that neighborhood, there's an excellent chance he wouldn't end up playing out the entire contract. As Rosenthal pointed out, since Heyward is just 26 years old, the lefty hitter is the ideal candidate to get an opt-out clause after the first three or four seasons of his next deal.
5. CL Aroldis Chapman
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The Surprise Destination: Los Angeles Dodgers
Just imagine a bullpen combination of Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman. Simply put, that would be flat-out nasty. Last season, Jansen clocked in with a 2.41 ERA and a 13.8 strikeout-per-nine ratio, while Chapman logged a 1.63 ERA and posed a 15.7 K/9 ratio.
According to C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Cincinnati Reds are looking to move fast on the Chapman trade front.
"Hopefully we get something done with somebody before the Winter Meetings," President of Baseball Operations Walt Jocketty told Rosecrans.
The Dodgers certainly have the pieces to bring Chapman to Southern California. In Bleacher Report's most-recent farm system rankings, the National League West champs snagged the top spot.
4. CF Yoenis Cespedes
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The Surprise Destination: Miami Marlins
Back at the beginning of October, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported that the Miami Marlins "like" free-agent slugger Yoenis Cespedes. However, as Jackson noted, the Fish would probably balk at the idea of dishing out the kind of lucrative six-year deal that the right-handed hitter is looking for.
If the sides could find a way to make the money work, there are at least two reasons why Cespedes would be a compelling target. The first reason is that Cespedes and Giancarlo Stanton would immediately form one of the scariest three-four combos in the Senior Circuit.
A deal with Miami would also make sense for the Cuban from a geographical perspective, as he makes his offseason home in nearby Boca Raton, Florida, according to Jessica Camerato of Boston.com.
3. SP Jose Fernandez
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The Surprise Destination: St. Louis Cardinals
With John Lackey a free agent and Lance Lynn sidelined for the 2016 season following elbow surgery, the St. Louis Cardinals need to shore up the rotation. Just ask general manager John Mozeliak.
"Maybe it's time to be more aggressive [on the market]," Mozeliak said, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
It's unclear if Jose Fernandez is actually available, but the right-hander is one starting pitcher who the Cards should definitely check in on. Based on a report from Andy Slater of 940-AM WINZ, it sounds likes there's at least a slight chance that Fernandez could get dealt this offseason.
"I don't see it as possible of him going anywhere," Miami Marlins team President David Samson told Jeff DeForrest of 940-AM WINZ, via Slater. "But teams come up with some crazy ideas, so it's our responsibility to always listen."
Making a big splash to snag a rising star in a winter blockbuster would be nothing new for St. Louis, as the NL Central champs swung a monster deal for Heyward last offseason.
2. SP David Price
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The Surprise Destination: Washington Nationals
After ripping off a 2.45 ERA and landing in second place of the American League Cy Young Award ballot, David Price has made himself one of the most popular targets on the free-agent block this winter. And it's not just front-office types who have been recruiting the lefty ace.
“I know I’ve made pitches to David Price—it’s just the baseball fan in me at the end of the day," Houston Astros starter Dallas Keuchel said, per Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. "I just play. … I think [the bosses] know that we’re in a good position.”
One squad that hasn't generated a ton of buzz in the Price sweepstakes, but who would make sense as a landing spot is the Washington Nationals.
David Schoenfield of ESPN dubbed the Nats the "sleeper" in the Price pursuit. As Schoenfield noted, the 30-year-old starter would be a strong long-term option for Washington because both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister are free agents this offseason and Stephen Strasburg will hit the market next winter.
1. SP Zack Greinke
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The Surprise Destination: San Francisco Giants
According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, it could be a big winter at AT&T Park: "Suffice to say, the [San Francisco] Giants will be one of the more aggressive teams on high-end players."
One of those high-end guys who would be a logical target is Zack Greinke.
Importing Greinke would not only provide the Giants with a much-needed front-line arm to lead the rotation along with Madison Bumgarner, but would also seriously damage the division-rival Los Angeles Dodgers. As Heyman of CBS Sports put it, the Giants "might pose a formidable threat to steal [the] star pitcher" from Chavez Ravine.
The big question for San Francisco or any other potential suitor is figuring out the many years or dollars they're willing to commit to a starter who's already 32 years old.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
