Which 2015-16 MLB Free Agents Will Be This Year's Surprise Steals?
For guys like Doug Fister and Mike Napoli, it's easy to get lost in the shuffle in this offseason's MLB free-agent market, which is flat-out stacked.
From Zack Greinke to Yoenis Cespedes, the class is historically impressive, as one agent explained to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports:
“This [is] the deepest [free-agent] market in memory, especially in terms of pitching and power.”
With the marketplace awash with talent, it's not out of the question to think that supply could end up exceeding demand. If that happens, lower-profile players like Fister and Napoli could end up being surprise steals for their next employers.
Starting pitchers and power hitters dominate the list that follows, but there's also room for one table-setter who is aiming to rebound from an injury-riddled 2015.
Mike Napoli, 1B/OF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 34
Why Mike Napoli Could Be a Surprise Steal
Following his trade to the Texas Rangers last August, Mike Napoli salvaged what had been a supremely disappointing season up to that point.
Upon arriving at Globe Life Park, the right-handed masher clocked in with a .295 average and a .908 OPS while clubbing five bombs in 35 games.
The sample size was small (55 at-bats), but Napoli absolutely hammered left-handed pitching, logging a 1.142 OPS. And raking against lefties is nothing new for the vet. In his 10 seasons in the bigs, Napoli owns a .527 slugging percentage and a .917 OPS against southpaws.
With that kind of pop and the ability to spend time at first base and in left field, Napoli would be a shrewd addition for any club looking to shore up the middle of its batting order.
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, interested suitors won't have to break the bank to reel in Napoli. Heyman predicted that the 34-year-old will end up earning a two-year deal for $15 million.
Logical Landing Spots: Colorado Rockies, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers
J.A. Happ, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 33
Why J.A. Happ Could Be a Surprise Steal
As was the case with Mike Napoli, J.A. Happ took off following a midseason swap.
When Happ joined the Pittsburgh Pirates at the end of July, the lefty was lugging around a 4.64 ERA in 20 outings for the Seattle Mariners. In 11 starts for the Bucs, Happ went on to reel off a 1.85 ERA. As a result of that success, general manager Neal Huntington would like to retain the veteran starter.
“There is interest,” Huntington told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review at the conclusion of the campaign. “It's just a matter of how it all comes together, how it works for him and how it works for us.”
One major factor that is playing into the Pirates' favor and against Happ is that the pitcher is far from the only left-handed starter available on the free-agent block. Pitchers like David Price, Wei-Yin Chen, Scott Kazmir and Brett Anderson are also on the lookout for new deals.
Happ has earned himself a significant raise from his $6.7 million salary in 2015, but with the crowded market, he should still end up being a bargain for his next team.
Logical Landing Spots: Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates
Chris Young, OF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 32
Why Chris Young Could Be a Surprise Steal
Chris Young did some serious damage against left-handed pitching in 2015.
In 153 at-bats, the outfielder tallied a .327 average, a .397 OBP, a .575 slugging percentage and a .972 OPS. That stat line makes Young an intriguing target for any team looking to add some thump against lefty pitching.
Based on the numbers last season, the Baltimore Orioles appear to be a strong match for Young. In 2015, the O's were last in the American League in OPS (.664) against southpaws.
The Boston Red Sox are one AL East team that has already expressed an interest in signing the 32-year-old, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.
As Silverman argued, the club's pursuit of Young is "another sign that the Red Sox are keeping a wide-open mind to dealing one of their current big-league outfielders—Jackie Bradley Jr. is the lead candidate by a wide margin."
If he does end up at Fenway Park, Young would be best suited for a platoon role. After all, he hit just .182 against right-handers last season.
A return to the Bronx as a reserve also shouldn't be ruled out. There should be plenty of at-bats to be had for Young, considering that Carlos Beltran, the squad's primary right fielder, will turn 39 at the end of next April.
Logical Landing Spots: Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees
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Nori Aoki, LF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 34
Why Nori Aoki Could Be a Surprise Steal
Quality leadoff hitters aren't easy to find.
Nori Aoki is a low-profile player with all the tools to fill that role. The left fielder hits for average (.287 in 2015), gets on base at a high clip (.353 OBP) and has a knack for putting the ball into play (just 25 strikeouts in 355 at-bats).
The knock on Aoki is that he simply wasn't able to stay on the field a season ago. Aoki only played in 93 games for the San Francisco Giants after fracturing his fibula in June and suffering a concussion a couple of months later.
Aoki should be good to go heading into the spring. According to Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group, Giants GM Bobby Evans said that the left-handed hitter is no longer dealing with concussion symptoms.
As Baggarly noted, San Francisco is still open to the idea of bringing back Aoki even though the team already declined his 2016 option for $5.5 million. Then again, considering his 2015 numbers, it's not unreasonable to think that Aoki could secure an even bigger guarantee on the open market.
Logical Landing Spots: Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants
Doug Fister, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 32
Why Doug Fister Could Be a Surprise Steal
After turning in a dud of a contract season, Doug Fister is the perfect buy-low candidate.
Last year, the righty pitched his way into the pen by running up a 4.60 ERA in 15 starts for the Washington Nationals. As he embarks upon free agency, Fister doesn't plan to market himself as a reliever.
“I don’t feel like right now in my career I’m forced to be a bullpen member for the rest of my career," Fister told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post during the final week of the regular season. "I still think I have a starting role somewhere, whether it’s here or somewhere else. I still have that capability.”
There are at least two reasons to believe that Fister is right about his future. The first is that he's now healthy. As Janes reported, his strained right flexor (in his forearm), which nagged him last season, is no longer an issue.
Then there's his track record to consider. From 2011 to 2014, Fister never posted an ERA higher than 3.67 while spending all of his time as a starter. His most impressive work came back in 2015, when he recorded a 2.41 ERA for the Nats.
With those numbers in mind, Fister would be a shrewd signing on a one-year deal as he looks to rebuild his value for another crack at free agency next offseason.
Logical Landing Spots: Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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