B/R MLB Offseason 100: The Top 20 Outfielders Available
After taking a stroll through the top pitchers, infielders and catchers on the market this winter, it's now time for the B/R MLB Offseason 100 to wrap things up with a look at the market's top outfielders.
By plucking players from the free-agent and trade markets, we've compiled a list of the offseason's 20 most desirable outfielders. As for how the rankings work, each player is rated according to a scoring system that adds up to a total of 100 points:
- Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook of their skills going forward. Think of 35 out of 70 as a league-average player and 70 out of 70 as an all-world, Mike Trout-like talent.
- Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe injury histories for a projection for how guys' bodies will hold up. Think of 10 out of 20 as signaling a toss-up as to whether a player will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 indicating no concerns whatsoever. But to keep things fair, we'll only allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
- Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it's going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he'd be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a megabust and 10 being a megasteal.
In the event of ties, the nod goes to the player we'd rather sign or trade for.
Along the way, you'll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant.
Step into the box whenever you're ready.
20. Austin Jackson, CF, Free Agent
1 of 20
Talent Outlook
Austin Jackson was an All-Star-caliber player earlier in his career, but not so much anymore. He's OPS'd just .674 over the last two seasons and has gone from rating as an elite defender to rating as just an OK defender. As a result, he now looks like more of a complementary piece than a regular.
Still, Jackson has his merits. He strikes out too much to be a good hitter, but he at least has some decent power to offer. He's also stolen 37 bases over the last two seasons. At 28 years old, he likely has a couple more seasons of good speed left. That and his glove highlight him as a Rajai Davis sort of part-timer.
Durability Outlook
Jackson has played in more than 150 games just once in the last four seasons, in part because of abdominal and hamstring injuries that sidelined him in 2012 and 2013.
Even with those taken into account, however, Jackson's injury history doesn't look too bad. He's in reasonably good shape for a guy approaching the end of his 20s. Besides which, he's in a position right now where he only has to worry about staying durable in a short-term deal.
Value Outlook
Jackson is coming off a season in which he earned $7.7 million in his final year of arbitration. With him likely to be perceived as a light-hitting part-time outfielder, it would be surprising if he got an annual salary that big in a one- or two-year deal.
In other words, it's going to be hard to overpay Jackson.
Total
19. Marlon Byrd, RF, Free Agent
2 of 20
Talent Outlook
Marlon Byrd emerged as a reinvented player back in 2013. He was suddenly all about hitting for power, and his newfound approach resulted in an .847 OPS and 24 home runs. In two seasons since, he's hit another 48 home runs. It's a safe guess that he'll have upward of 20 homers in him again in his age-38 season in 2016.
He may not be much of a hitter, though. Byrd's .751 OPS over the last two seasons grades out as slightly above average. Between his strikeouts and his pull-happy approach, that's no surprise. But if he can at least keep the power coming while continuing to play a decent right field, Byrd will be a solid regular.
Durability Outlook
Byrd didn't have much trouble staying on the field in 2013 and 2014, playing in a total of 301 games. But thanks to a wrist fracture that sidelined him for a few weeks, Byrd played in only 135 games this past season.
Granted, fractures do heal. But what happened to Byrd in 2015 is still a reminder that, at 38 years old and with somewhat of an extensive injury history, he's less than indestructible. Even in what's likely to be a one-year deal, it's not a given that he'll stay on the field in his next contract.
Value Outlook
The Giants showed what they thought Byrd was worth by declining his $8 million option for 2016. Because of that, $8 million is presumably the best he'll be able to do in a one-year contract this winter. In all probability, he'll have to settle for a lower base plus incentives.
In other words, Byrd's direction is a good place for teams to look for some cheap power.
Total
18. Chris Young, OF, Free Agent
3 of 20
Talent Outlook
Chris Young looked like he was on his way out of baseball not too long ago, as he looked lost with the A's in 2013 and lost with the Mets in 2014. But then the Yankees picked him up and squeezed a .792 OPS and 17 home runs out of him in 163 games. He now looks like at least a solid platoon outfielder.
And that's no mirage. The 32-year-old Young succeeded with the Yankees largely because they exploited his success against left-handed pitching, and his emergence as a fly-ball hitter with an extreme pull habit in 2015 bodes well for his power. That and his versatile glove make Young worth a look as a complementary piece.
Durability Outlook
There was a time when Young was a good bet for over 150 games per year, but that time has passed—and not just because he's a platoon player now, as he's also dealt with his share of nagging injuries in recent years.
It bodes well that Young played in 140 games in 2015 despite his limited role. But considering his injury track record, nobody should take too much for granted in a short-term deal.
Value Outlook
Young signed for just $2.5 million on a one-year deal last offseason. Because his value is significantly higher now, he should be able to find a contract that calls for him to make at least twice that per season. And rather than a one-year deal, a two-year pact sounds about right.
Maybe Young won't be a steal for that kind of money. But if he keeps the home runs coming while roaming all over the outfield, it would be money well spent.
Total
17. Jay Bruce, RF, Trade
4 of 20
Rumor Source: C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports
Talent Outlook
Between 2010 and 2013, Jay Bruce racked up an .826 OPS and averaged 30 home runs per year. He also played generally strong defense in right field. But the last two seasons have seen him fall off a proverbial cliff. He's posted just a .695 OPS, hit just 44 home runs and been hit-or-miss on defense.
As we'll get to in a moment, Bruce's health has had a hand in his downfall. But between his strikeout habit and his extreme pull tendency, he's not built for consistency in this day and age. The bright side is that he showed in 2015 that he still has power. As long as he has that, he's worth playing.
Durability Outlook
Bruce's durability got away from him in 2014, as he missed a portion of the season with left knee surgery and suffered through the rest of the campaign after rushing back from the injury. In his words, he endured the "worst six months of my life."
However, it's significant that Bruce came back to play in 157 games in 2015. That made it three years out of four in which he's played in at least 155 contests. He'll also turn just 29 in April. So, he's not such a terrible bet to remain durable for at least the final guaranteed year of his contract in 2016.
Value Outlook
According to Rosecrans and Rosenthal, Bruce is one of a number of players the Reds are willing to trade to further their rebuild. As Rosenthal notes, said rebuild has begun with young pitching but needs more young position players. If the Reds deal Bruce, that will presumably be their goal.
It will be one of them, anyway. Another may be to ditch the $13.5 million Bruce is still owed. Dealing for him may very well entail sacrificing young talent and taking on a decent-sized chunk of payroll, which sounds like a steep price for a guy who's career has taken a turn for the worse.
Total
16. Chris Coghlan, OF, Trade
5 of 20
Speculation Source: Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors
Talent Outlook
Albeit with little attention, Chris Coghlan has done a fine job resurrecting his career over the last two seasons. In addition to reinventing himself as a utility player who can play all over, he's OPS'd .793 with 25 home runs. Not bad for a former Rookie of the Year who was looking like a one-year wonder for a while.
Mind you, the big catch is that Coghlan, 30, needs the platoon advantage. But he's shown in the last two years he can be really good if he gets it on the regular basis, as he's increased his walks and hit for some solid power. Between that and his versatile glove, he's a good guy to have around.
Durability Outlook
Injuries were part of the reason Coghlan's career went off the rails after his Rookie of the Year season in 2009. Between 2010 and 2013, he played in only 265 games due in part to knee and back injuries.
Fortunately, Coghlan has remained healthy in his last two seasons. But he's now on the wrong side of 30 with a considerable injury history, so there's a limit to how much anyone can count on continued durability.
Value Outlook
Though there's been some talk about the Cubs possibly putting Kyle Schwarber out on the market, Dierkes is correct in thinking that dealing Coghlan is a "safer alternative." He won't fetch an especially big haul, but trading him would clear up Chicago's outfield logjam without costing the Cubs a potentially elite bat.
If the Cubs do trade Coghlan, the idea will likely be to add a complementary piece like a reliever or a back-end starter. Because he only has one year of club control left, he could presumably only fetch a player with similar controllability. If so, there's a fair swap to be made.
Total
15. Nori Aoki, OF, Free Agent
6 of 20
Talent Outlook
It would appear that Nori Aoki is very particular where his batting averages fall. In four major league seasons, the 33-year-old Japan native has hit .288, .286, .285 and .287. In that time, he's also stolen 81 bases. All this says he's very much deserving of a spot atop pretty much any lineup.
Looking ahead, Aoki should keep hitting for average and stealing bases. He has the contact skill and the bat control for the job. And though his speed is likely past its prime, he should at least keep making it to double-digit steals. Just don't expect anything more, as he has neither good power nor especially good defense to offer. He can be a solid regular, but that's it.
Durability Outlook
Aoki played in over 150 games in each of his first two seasons in the big leagues, but the injury bug has found him in each of the last two. He missed time with a groin strain in 2014, and a broken leg and a concussion limited him to 93 contests in 2015.
All this doesn't sound so good on a guy who's headed for his age-34 season in 2016. Even in what's going to be a short-term deal, Aoki isn't an especially good bet to stay healthy.
Value Outlook
Aoki is only a free agent because the Giants declined his $5.5 million option for 2016. That gives some insight into what Aoki's market value is like these days. He's probably in line for a one-year deal for $5 million, or at best a two-year contract worth $10 million.
In either case, the one risk factor will be Aoki's health. But if he can stay healthy, he should do more than enough to earn his money.
Total
14. Gerardo Parra, OF, Free Agent
7 of 20
Talent Outlook
Because he was hitting .328 with an .886 OPS at the time, Gerardo Parra was a hot item on the summer trade market. But then he slumped after Milwaukee traded him to Baltimore, returning to his status as a below-average hitter with a 69 OPS+ after the deal. Throw in defense that no longer looks Gold Glove-caliber, and you get a middle-of-the-road free agent.
But lest we disparage Parra too much, he does have selling points. Offensively, he offers an ability to put the ball in play and a quality bat against right-handers, as well as a decent mix of power and speed. And at the very least, his glove is versatile. The 28-year-old looks like, at the least, a good part-time option.
Durability Outlook
Parra's talents may be questionable, but his durability is solid. He's played in at least 150 games three years in a row, and he has yet to go on the disabled list in his career. Even nagging injuries have been relatively few and far between.
All that's a good look on a guy who's entering his age-29 season. The big question is whether Parra will be durable in a short-term deal or more of a long-term deal. Here's thinking he's more in line for a short-term pact, so we'll give him the short-term maximum.
Value Outlook
As a left-handed hitter with a strong contact habit and a decent, if not quite great, glove to offer, the best-case scenario for Parra involves matching Nick Markakis' four-year, $44 million contract. But because he doesn't have Markakis' track record, odds are he'll have to settle for something more like three years at $10 million-$12 million per year.
That would be a steal if Parra got back to being who he was in the first half of 2015. But given that he's best used as a platoon outfielder, probably not.
Total
13. Denard Span, CF, Free Agent
8 of 20
Talent Outlook
If Denard Span is anything, he's an ideal top-of-the-order hitter. He's hit over .300 in back-to-back seasons, and he owns a career .352 OBP. Two of his primary talents are putting the ball in play and drawing walks, a combination of talents that's rare these days. That gives him a wide-ranging sort of appeal.
What else Span will be able to offer going forward, however, is a good question. He's never had much power, and his defense has rated poorly in each of the last two seasons. If that's because his speed is waning thanks to his age (nearly 32) and assorted injuries, then his days as a 20-steal guy may also be coming to an end. Span should be productive, but his peak is likely behind him.
Durability Outlook
This is where things get messy. Span played in over 150 games only once between 2011 and 2014, and he is coming off a 2015 season in which injuries limited him to just 61 games. He began the year recovering from core muscle surgery, and his season ended early thanks to hip surgery.
So, suffice it to say Span was pretty beat up in 2015. That would be easy to overlook if he was a younger player with a strong track record of durability, but he's an older guy with a modest track record of durability. In what will likely be a multiyear deal, his health may not cooperate.
Value Outlook
Evidently worried that he would accept it coming off his injury-filled 2015, the Nationals did not extend a qualifying offer to Span. That should be a relief to him, as not being tied to draft-pick compensation will make it easier for him to find a multiyear deal. Because he's in a position similar to the one Shane Victorino was in after 2012, three years and $35 million-$40 million is possible.
Span could easily live up to a deal like that if he were to stay healthy and be a consistent OBP merchant atop the lineup. But as we discussed, his continued health probably isn't a good bet.
Total
12. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF, Trade
9 of 20
Rumor Source: Joel Sherman of the New York Post
Talent Outlook
Before 2015, we knew Jackie Bradley Jr. as an outfielder who could play otherworldly defense, but whose bat lagged very far behind. However, after he finished 2015 with an .891 OPS and nine home runs in his last 60 games, now it's possible to wonder whether that will change.
The best we can say is maybe. Bradley is capable of good contact and drawing walks, but his ongoing battle with strikeouts is a red flag that looms large. Any team interested in trading for him should anticipate elite defense as a given and anything else as a bonus.
Durability Outlook
Bradley has yet to handle a full season's workload, but not because he's had trouble with injuries. He's played in only 238 games in three seasons because he simply hasn't earned more playing time.
But his lack of injuries in that time shows he's relatively well preserved even for a guy who's only 25 years old. Bradley's all-out style in the outfield may leave him vulnerable getting hurt, but in general his durability isn't much of a question mark as he looks ahead to five more seasons of club control.
Value Outlook
According to Sherman's report, the thinking among executives is that Boston may believe that Bradley's "strong finish inflated his value beyond his actual skill" and that "this may be the best time to maximize dealing a young, defensive-star outfielder." In other words, he's very much a sell-high candidate, one that could be used in a trade that could flesh out Boston's starting rotation with an established player.
If that's what the Red Sox are thinking, then prospective buyers need to tread carefully around Bradley. He may come at a high price, but with more bust potential than your typical controllable talent.
Total
11. Marcell Ozuna, CF, Trade
10 of 20
Rumor Source: Jayson Stark of ESPN.com
Talent Outlook
Marcell Ozuna seemed to have a big breakout in 2014, posting a .772 OPS with 23 home runs and pretty good defense in center field. But 2015 ended up bringing an early-season demotion, and he finished with a .691 OPS and just 10 home runs. Between that and what he did in 2013, Ozuna's 2014 looks like an outlier.
Still, the thing to keep in mind is that Ozuna is only 25 years old with four more years of club control left. And though he doesn't have an approach befitting a top-of-the-order hitter, his bat packs a good punch thanks to a good hard-contact ability and solid bat control. And with a plus arm and solid athleticism, he has what he needs to be a good defender. All this makes Ozuna a worthwhile upside play.
Durability Outlook
Ozuna's left arm has been pretty beat up, as he suffered a broken wrist as a minor leaguer in 2010 and a torn ligament in his thumb in 2013. Apart from that, he's also suffered a couple of injuries on slides into second base.
But while this does mean Ozuna has suffered his share of hurts, that he's still only 25 allows for some optimism. He may not be totally bulletproof in his final four years of club control, but he's hardly a candidate to break down, either.
Value Outlook
According to Stark's report, the Marlins are only interested in dealing Ozuna for a No. 2-type starter. That's not a crazy ask based on his upside and controllability, but Stark is right about it being a tough sell following Ozuna's 2015 season.
For that matter, even a No. 3-type starter might be a tough sell at this point. For all of Ozuna's upside, there's no denying that his trade value is considerably lower now than it was a year ago.
Total
10. Brett Gardner, LF, Trade
11 of 20
Speculation Source: Bryan Hoch of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
In each of the last three seasons, Brett Gardner has posted an OPS in the mid-.700s and stolen at least 20 bases. And in the last two years, he's turned on the power and hit 33 combined home runs. Along the way, he's looked like his typical self: a pesky hitter at the plate, and a speedy runner on the bases and on defense.
However, the 32-year-old's speediest days are clearly in the past, as he's no longer capable of swiping upward of 40 bags and is now rating as roughly an average defender. He also owes a good chunk of his power to Yankee Stadium's short porch. He has the ability to be a solid top-of-the-order hitter and defender in the final three years of his contract, but his prime is very likely behind him.
Durability Outlook
An elbow injury limited Gardner to 16 games in 2012, but he has otherwise been good for at least 145 contests in five of six years. For the most part, he's been durable.
But Gardner's the type of guy who attracts nagging injuries, including a wrist ailment that bothered him throughout 2015. He's been able to fight through these nagging injuries so far. But at 32 years of age with plenty of miles on his body, you do wonder if that can continue.
Value Outlook
There's nothing concrete that says the Yankees are looking to move Gardner, but Hoch is right to think that dealing him is a good way for New York to add some much-needed flexibility to its roster. Gardner is one of the only Yankees with trade value and without an albatross contract, as the $39.5 million he's still owed isn't overly steep.
But these being the Yankees, they'd surely be more interested in adding talent than jettisoning Gardner's contract. And given where they are, anything coming back would likely have to be either established MLB talent or MLB-ready talent. It'll take more than spare parts to acquire Gardner.
Total
9. Carlos Gonzalez, RF, Trade
12 of 20
Rumor Source: Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post
Talent Outlook
Carlos Gonzalez went through a tough stretch for a while there, posting just a .723 OPS in an injury-marred 2014 and getting off to a slow start in 2015. But he ultimately finished with an .864 OPS and 40 home runs, thus indicating that he may not be finished as the excellent hitter he was between 2009 and 2013.
The trouble is that Gonzalez's baserunning and defense both seem past their prime, and that his career home/road splits don't inspire much confidence that he can succeed away from Coors Field. His aggressive style and swing-and-miss habit won't help. One big reason for optimism, though, is that Gonzalez does tend to crush the ball when he puts it in play. That's a habit that can travel, and it should ensure that he's at least a good power source in the final two years of his contract.
Durability Outlook
Gonzalez played in more than 150 games for the first time in his eight-year career in 2015. Injuries held him back in previous years, most notably a seemingly never-ending series of leg setbacks.
Theoretically, getting away from Coors Field and its gigantic outfield could be what Gonzalez's legs need. But given that he is now on the wrong side of 30 with a lot of miles on his body, even that thought provides only so much comfort. In the final two years of his contract, he's a toss-up to stay healthy.
Value Outlook
According to Saunders, the Rockies will "certainly listen" to offers for Gonzalez this winter. That's very much believable, as trading him now is a chance for Colorado to capitalize on his rebuilt value while it can.
Gonzalez is owed $37 million over the next two seasons, and his home/road splits mean he has more value to the Rockies than he does to anyone else. Even still, they're not going to move him at a discounted price. A team that deals for Gonzalez will likely have to sacrifice some talented prospects and eat a lot of cash, which would be a high price to pay for a guy who looks like a Coors Field product.
Total
8. Dexter Fowler, CF, Free Agent
13 of 20
Talent Outlook
Dexter Fowler is going into free agency off a strong year, as he finished 2015 with a .757 OPS, 17 homers and 20 steals. He now owns a .790 OPS over the last four seasons, three of which have seen him post double-digit homers and steals. Pretty good stuff for a center fielder.
Of course, one catch is that Fowler is not a good defender in center field. And though he's not a bad hitter, his approach might be overly passive. He tends to look more interested in drawing walks than actually hitting the ball. But despite these nitpicks, Fowler still stands out as a good top-of-the-order hitter who can play every day in center field. He's worth a multiyear deal.
Durability Outlook
Believe it or not, 2015 marked the first season in which Fowler managed to play in more than 150 games. Injuries had a big hand in holding him back in previous years. Few were serious, but they were definitely frequent.
That's not the best look on a guy who just played his age-29 season. Fowler's 30s lie ahead, and his track record suggests they're not going to be defined by durability.
Value Outlook
Not surprisingly, Fowler's strong 2015 resulted in his receiving a qualifying offer from the Cubs. He'll reject that and go looking for a contract befitting of a solid top-of-the-order hitter. He won't get Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo Choo money, but a four- or five-year deal at around $15 million per season could be doable.
That may not sound too bad based on the player Fowler is now. But between his somewhat one-dimensional game and his durability red flags, that plus a lost draft pick would actually be steep.
Total
7. Josh Reddick, RF, Trade
14 of 20
Speculation Source: Charlie Wilmoth of MLB Trade Rumors
Talent Outlook
Josh Reddick's production has been up and down ever since he became a regular back in 2012, but he's looking pretty good right now. The eye test says his right field defense didn't slip as much in 2015 as the metrics say it did, and the 2015 campaign saw him post a full-season career-best .781 OPS with 20 home runs.
The thing to keep in mind with Reddick's offense is that it comes with a platoon split. But the 28-year-old left-handed batter has always had solid power, and now he's quickly becoming an elite contact hitter. That should ensure that he keeps the above-average production coming. That combined with his glove, and youth make for a pretty attractive trade chip.
Durability Outlook
Reddick is coming off a season in which he played in 149 games, but you'll recall that he had issues staying on the field in 2013 and 2014. Wrist and knee injuries conspired to limit him to just 223 games.
Sure, it bodes well that Reddick is still young and coming off a healthy season. But his track record can't be ignored, especially in light of how he's a slender player (6'2", 180 lbs) who doesn't take it easy on his body with his style of play.
Value Outlook
The big disclaimer here is that it's been reported that the A's would rather extend Reddick than trade him, which is something A's general manager Billy Beane doesn't want to do. But as Wilmoth noted, Beane's past suggests you shouldn't be surprised if and when Reddick is traded this winter.
If Beane does shop Reddick, he'll be shopping a talented two-way right fielder. That's a valuable asset that could cost a team a small handful of young prospects. Given Reddick's history of injuries and inconsistency, such a swap would definitely involve some risk.
Total
6. Ah Seop Son, OF, Free Agent
15 of 20
Talent Outlook
Here's a guy who needs no introduction in Korea but is definitely in need of one to North American fans. Ah Seop Son is a nine-year veteran of the Korean Baseball Organization and one of the league's top hitters. Over the last six seasons, Son hit .329 with an .874 OPS and averaged double-digit home runs and stolen bases per season. And he's not all about offense, as Son has also won multiple Gold Gloves.
As for how all this might translate to Major League Baseball, the reality that Jung Ho Kang was able to make a successful transition in 2015 bodes well. And though Son doesn't have Kang's power, he looks like the better pure hitter. In addition to his impressive surface numbers over the last six years, Son posted a 15.8 K% and 10.8 BB% that look pretty good by MLB standards. If all goes well, the 27-year-old could be a solid-hitting, solid-fielding regular in the majors.
Durability Outlook
Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. A Google search didn't turn up any injuries for Son, so we're pretty much flying blind here.
But things do look good on the surface. Son averaged over 120 games played in his last six seasons, a number that looks pretty good in light of how the KBO campaign is notably shorter than MLB's (144 games, increased from 128 in 2014. And with only his age-28 season ahead of him, Son is very much in his prime. Durability shouldn't be an issue.
Value Outlook
We don't know just yet what kind of bid is going to win Son's posting, but we can hazard a guess that it will fall between the $5 million that won Kang's posting last winter and the $12.85 million that won fellow KBO veteran Byung Ho Park's posting this winter. In addition, Kang's success paves the way for Son to receive a better contract. It wouldn't be surprising if he gets double the $11 million that Kang got.
In other words: no. Son is probably not going to be a Kang-like steal in the end. But if Kang's success is any indication, it's hard to imagine a team paying too much for Son.
Total
5. Alex Gordon, LF, Free Agent
16 of 20
Talent Outlook
In Alex Gordon, you're looking at maybe the best left fielder in baseball. The last five seasons have seen him post an .809 OPS while averaging 18 home runs per year and playing truly fantastic defense. Add in quality baserunning, and it's no wonder Baseball-Reference's version of WAR rates him well above all other left fielders. Oh, and so does FanGraphs.
Looking ahead, Gordon's offense should remain strong. Everything is built off a good approach and contact habit, and a move away from Kauffman Stadium would only help his power. But with his age-32 season due up, you do wonder about his baserunning and defense. In a long-term deal, there will inevitably come a point where he's not able to move like he used to.
Durability Outlook
Gordon was a picture of health between 2011 and 2014, playing more than 150 games each year and generally keeping the injury bug at bay. It wasn't until this past July that things took a turn for the worse, as Gordon suffered a groin injury that sidelined him for over a month.
You know that point about his legs wearing down? That applies to this section as well. Beyond his age, another red flag is that Gordon's years of activity on the basepaths and in Kauffman Stadium's huge outfield put a lot of miles on his wheels. In a long-term deal, continued durability is less than a sure thing.
Value Outlook
Gordon turned down a $14 million option to become a free agent. His next step will surely be to turn down the $15.8 million qualifying offer from Kansas City. And rightfully so, as his market will likely lead him toward a contract of around five years and $100 million.
Money like that would be a downright steal if Gordon were to continue playing like his 2011-15 self. But that's definitely his prime, and he's at an age where that will very likely soon be behind him.
Total
4. Yoenis Cespedes, LF, Free Agent
17 of 20
Talent Outlook
Yoenis Cespedes picked a heck of a time to have a career year in 2015. He posted a career-best .870 OPS with a career-high 35 home runs while continuing to play excellent defense in left field. Along the way, he looked like a near-impossible blend of speed, power and overall athleticism.
The way in which Cespedes fell apart in the postseason, though, was a reminder that he's not perfect. His hyper-aggressive style at the plate has limited him to a .309 OBP over the last three seasons, and he can be guilty of lapses in judgment on defense. He's also now on the wrong side of 30. Though his tremendous raw ability should and will land him a big contract, odds are 2015 will prove to be his peak.
Durability Outlook
Cespedes had some issues staying on the field in the first two years of his career but has been able to play in more than 150 games in each of the last two. And though he may be 30, the big bright side there is that he's more well-preserved than many guys his age. Before he was a major leaguer, he was playing in fewer than 100 games a year in the Cuban National Series.
All the same, there's no ignoring how Cespedes attracts plenty of nagging injuries. And with his body type and style of play, injuries are always going to be a risk. In a long-term deal, good health is less than guaranteed.
Value Outlook
Both Cespedes' contract and his trade from Detroit to New York barred him from receiving a qualifying offer, so he'll head out into the open market off a career year and without ties to draft-pick compensation. That will only make it easier for him to make lots and lots of money, with a good bet being something in the range of five or six years at upward of $25 million per season.
With a lost draft pick, a deal like that would arguably be too steep for a suitor. But without a lost draft pick, it doesn't sound so bad.
Total
3. Yasiel Puig, RF, Trade
18 of 20
Speculation Source: Joel Sherman of the New York Post
Talent Outlook
Without question, Yasiel Puig was one of the game's top right fielders in 2013 and 2014. In addition to hitting .305 with an .888 OPS and combined 35 home runs, his defense rated as pretty good. But that all looks like ancient history after Puig's 2015, in which he was limited to a .758 OPS and 11 home runs in 79 games. And in general, Puig's great moments have come with a seemingly equal number of frustrating ones.
Still, there's no denying his potential. He's a bundle of athleticism who's only going to be 25 in 2016, and he's at least proven he can take his walks, hit for power and use his arm to make mincemeat of baserunners. And with three years left on his contract, there is time to hone his other skills to a point where they show up consistently rather than occasionally.
Durability Outlook
This is where it's somewhat harder to be optimistic about Puig. He missed all but 79 games in 2015 because of leg injuries. And even in playing in 252 contests across the two prior seasons, he dealt with a near-constant barrage of nagging injuries.
The good news is that Puig is still very young. The not-so-good news is that the injury bug may never leave him alone. His all-out style doesn't take it easy on his body, and all his bulk only gives the injury bug more areas to aim for.
Value Outlook
Because Puig is signed for three more years at less than $20 million total, Sherman is right to think that there will be interest in him if the Dodgers put him out there. But because they're trying to win now, it'll likely cost an established player or two to land Puig. And good ones, at that.
However, keep in mind that the Dodgers would be selling low on Puig if they deal him this winter. He's at a point where his trade value is much lower than his star potential, so whoever acquires him will have a high chance of landing a steal.
Total
2. Justin Upton, LF, Free Agent
19 of 20
Talent Outlook
Justin Upton clearly peaked with his MVP-level performance in 2011, but even his lesser self is still a really good player. Over the last three years, he's posted an .814 OPS and hit 82 home runs. He also showed with 19 steals in 2015 that he's not done being productive on the basepaths, and he's at least a solid left fielder.
Upton's decline will come eventually, but not soon. He's only 28, and he presently boasts a strong approach and a reasonably consistent hard-contact habit. In the life of a long-term deal, he should have more than a few prime seasons still left in him.
Durability Outlook
Upton found his way to the disabled list in 2008 and 2009 but hasn't been back since. In each of the last five years, he's dealt with only minor injuries in averaging more than 150 games played per season.
The one downside to all this is that Upton has accumulated more mileage (1,184 career games) than a lot of guys his age. But he also hasn't pushed his body any harder than he's had to, as his style of play has been more Robinson Cano-like smoothness than Aaron Rowand-like recklessness. In the life of a long-term contract, continued durability shouldn't be too much trouble.
Value Outlook
Upton is definitely not a perfect player, but it's rare that established stars as young as he is hit the open market. Even after he rejects a qualifying offer from the Padres, he should be in the market for a six- or seven-year deal worth $20 million-$25 million per year.
That plus the lost draft pick would be a pretty high price to pay. But if Upton does indeed have plenty more prime seasons left in him, he could be worth it in the end.
Total
1. Jason Heyward, RF, Free Agent
20 of 20
Talent Outlook
As far as Baseball-Reference's version of WAR is concerned, Jason Heyward has been one of the game's 10 best position players since his debut in 2010 (No. 11 at FanGraphs). That's his reward for being so well-rounded. In addition to OPS'ing .784 in six seasons, he's averaged 16 home runs and 14 steals a year while playing superb right field defense.
This is not to say Heyward doesn't come with any red flags. After starting strong, his power has become more like average in the last two seasons. But that's pretty much it. Heyward's ability to make contact and draw walks makes for a solid offensive foundation. And because he's only 26 years old, the skills that have made him an excellent baserunner and defender shouldn't fade anytime soon. Make no mistake: He has plenty of years as an elite player left in him.
Durability Outlook
An appendectomy and a fastball to his face limited Heyward to 104 games back in 2013, but he's otherwise had little trouble staying healthy in recent years. In three of the last four seasons, he's played in at least 149 games.
That and the fact that Heyward is still so young obviously bode well for his durability going forward. If there is a concern, it's that the effort he puts forth on the basepaths and in the field may hasten his breakdown. It's a relatively small concern, though.
Value Outlook
At 26 years old and arguably the top position player on the market, Heyward definitely isn't going to come cheap. In addition to a draft pick by way of his likely rejection of his qualifying offer, signing him may also cost close to $200 million in a nine- or 10-year deal.
As we've seen with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and, more recently, Robinson Cano, deals like that can quickly become albatrosses. The difference with Heyward, however, is that he's significantly younger and fresher than many other players who have gotten such long pacts. He could actually be worth it.
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