Week 8 NFL Picks: Over-Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

It's time for Round 8, NFL bettors.

Things don't get any easier as the season nears the halfway point, not with yet another game in London, tricky divisional waters to navigate and an ever-changing player landscape thanks to injuries and beyond.

Perhaps the best bit of advice one can offer? Start early. Right now, the odds are ripe for picking out good lines and over-under odds, numbers that simply won't hold as the week progresses.

Here's a look at how Las Vegas feels about the Week 8 slate right out of the gates and how bettors should address each scenario.

NFL Week 8 Odds

Game	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Miami at New England	NE -7.5	51	NE 33-28
Detroit vs. Kansas City (London)	KC -6	45.5	DET 21-20
Tampa Bay at Atlanta	ATL-7.5	49	ATL 27-24
San Diego at Baltimore	NL	--	SD 35-17
Minnesota at Chicago	MIN -1	42	MIN 28-14
Arizona at Cleveland	NL	--	ARI 34-17
Tennessee at Houston	NL	--	TEN 17-14
New York Giants at New Orleans	NO -3	49	NO 24-23
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	NL	--	CIN 27-23
San Francisco at St. Louis	STL -9.5	39.5	STL 23-20
New York Jets at Oakland	E	44	NYJ 20-14
Seattle at Dallas	SEA -6	40.5	SEA 21-17
Green Bay at Denver	GB -3	45.5	GB 28-17
Indianapolis at Carolina	CAR -7	46.5	CAR 30-20

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.   

Early-Week Odds to Bet

Miami at New England (-7.5)

It's easy to look at this one and see a major blowout. Las Vegas feels something along those lines, too.

A word of caution, though. The New England Patriots' last two opponents (Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets) were able to keep things within seven points. This one comes on a quick turnaround for Thursday Night Football, too, meaning the outcome could swing either way.

It wasn't too long ago the Miami Dolphins were the laughingstock of the league, but the team exploded out of the bye with a new head coach and fire, going 2-0 since with 38-10 and 44-26 wins.

In that turnaround span, Lamar Miller has 288 of his 419 rushing yards and both of his scores, while Ryan Tannehill has six of his 13 touchdown tosses with just two of his seven interceptions.

This is the first big test for the new-look Dolphins, and none of the above is meant to suggest the Patriots will take a loss at home. Tom Brady is still completing 68.9 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns to one interception and will get the ball away before the rush can get home.

Just expect this one to wind up closer than Las Vegas predicts.

Prediction: Patriots 33, Dolphins 28

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-7.5)

Weston Kenney/Associated Press

As far as divisional matchups go, this might be the hardest to read of Week 8. 

There's the Atlanta Falcons, a 6-1 team with a dynamite offense and a good-enough defense. The problem? The team just hardly escaped the iffy Tennessee Titans last week, 10-7.

Then there's a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team led by promising rookie quarterback Jameis Winston and a rather volatile offense, but Lovie Smith's team sits at 2-4 and just gave up a huge lead to lose to an iffy Washington team.

Las Vegas seems to think Matt Ryan (9-6 touchdowns-interceptions ratio) and Devonta Freeman (621 yards, nine touchdowns) will blow away the Buccaneers, but last week's 10 points and 378 total yards on more than 34 minutes of possession looks concerning.

Also concerning is a defense that has let up 20 or more points five times and is especially weak against running backs. Tampa Bay's Doug Martin, who averages five yards per carry with 541 already, should be able to help the Buccaneers control the tempo.

Like the Patriots, the Falcons sit as the better team at home, but don't expect the huge spread to come to fruition.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 24

Indianapolis at Carolina (-7)

Some spreads are big for the right reason, of course. 

The week's Monday Night Football encounter pits Andrew Luck against Cam Newton, which will make for quite the interesting debate given the trajectory of each player's season right now and the noise surrounding both.

A note by Around The NFL really says it all about the visiting quarterback:

"

Andrew Luck: 'I've got to play better' https://t.co/jWGgyN6tug

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) October 26, 2015"

Luck's Colts are 3-4 and losers of two straight, the three wins against lowly teams like Tennessee, Jacksonville and Houston. He's completing just 56.2 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns to nine picks.

Then there's Newton and the Panthers, who sit at 6-0 behind 13 total touchdowns from the versatile quarterback who rides his elite defense quite well while making up for a lack of productive weapons around him. 

Long story short, this large spread looks great. Carolina's strong defense has surrendered more than 20 points just three times and shouldn't have any problems taking advantage of a turnover-prone Luck. 

Regardless of if the two quarterbacks deserve the majority of the credit or criticism, Newton will come out ahead of Luck this time.

Prediction: Panthers 30, Colts 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Oct. 27. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.