Head-to-Head World Series Matchups That Will Decide the 2015 MLB Champ
It's finally here, baseball fans: The 2015 MLB World Series starts Tuesday night.
Over the following days, the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals will take part in the latest installment of the Fall Classic." Before the first pitch of Game 1 is thrown, let's dive into some head-to-head matchups that could decide which team raises the trophy.
Obviously, both the Mets and Royals have deep and talented rosters. New York's run through October has been behind an elite starting rotation, while Kansas City has returned to the World Series behind a similar formula that gave it success last season.
Both teams will be aware of the other team's strengths and will key on countering them down throughout the course of the series.
Will Travis d'Arnaud be able to shut down the Kansas City running game? Which matters more: Johnny Cueto's recent struggles or his career success over a good chunk of the Mets order? Will an overly aggressive Royals lineup play right into the hands of a strikeout-heavy Mets rotation?
We'll take a closer look at those questions and try to determine which team may have the upper hand. Let us know what you think in the comments section below. What's the key matchup in this series? What are some weaknesses that each team can exploit?
Matchups matter in a seven-game series. Over the course of this slideshow, we'll identify a handful of key aspects that will determine the World Series champion.
Mets Pitchers vs. Kansas City Table-Setters
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Kansas City has a deep and talented lineup, but that offense reaches the next level when Alcides Escobar and Ben Zobrist are getting on base.
Both Escobar and Zobrist did just that against the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Championship Series. Escobar had an on-base percentage of .481, while Zobrist reached base 10 games in six games.
Escobar's performance in the ALCS was particularly surprising. The shortstop won ALCS MVP after setting an MLB record by recording a leadoff hit in each of the first four games. Considering he posted a sub-.300 OBP this season, his contribution was timely, to say the least.
"He's such a talented player," Royals manager Ned Yost told the Associated Press via ESPN.com. "But with the grind of a 162-game season, there are little periods where his focus will tend to waver a little bit. But during the playoffs, he just locks in. And when he's focused, he's as good as any player in the league."
If Escobar is clicking, he joins Zobrist atop the Kansas City lineup to form a dangerous one-two punch. Zobrist continues to be one of the toughest outs in baseball—he walked more than he struck out this season—and is capable of moving the speedy Escobar into scoring position for the middle of the K.C. lineup.
A ray of hope for Mets fans comes from Escobar's numbers against right-handed pitching this season. He slashed .252/.284/.315 and had a higher soft-contact percentage than hard-contact percentage in those situations in 2015. Escobar will have to figure out those struggles when he faces three of the top right-handers in MLB over the coming days.
The Royals like to put pressure on opposing defenses with a combination of contact and speed. It won't be easy to keep the Royals off the scoreboard if Escobar and Zobrist continue to set the table and provide run-scoring opportunities for the rest of the club.
Travis D'Arnaud vs. Kansas City Base Stealers
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It's no secret that the Royals like to run. Kansas City ranked second in the American League in stolen bases in 2015 after leading baseball last season.
The Royals choked down the running game against the Blue Jays in the ALCS, but there shouldn't be a lack of stolen base attempts in the World Series. According to the Eye On Baseball staff, Kansas City has some advantages against Travis d'Arnaud and the Mets pitchers in that department:
"While the Mets in the regular season allowed fewer steals than the average team, they ranked 22nd in caught-stealing percentage, 26th in opponents' times caught stealing, and last in successful pick-offs. Mets catcher Travis d'Arnaud, who'll be the regular starter in the World Series, threw out 33 percent of would-be stealers in the regular season. That's compared to a league-average mark of 30 percent.
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Catchers are graded on how many runners they catch stealing, but many times a base is stolen on the pitcher. Matt Harvey (3-for-11), Noah Syndergaard (1-for-15) and Tyler Clippard (1-for-6) have each shown a tendency to allow baserunners to take an extra bag.
Considering how dominant the Mets rotation can be, expect the Royals to turn up their aggressiveness and put runners in motion. It'll be up to d'Arnaud to limit just how much of an impact K.C.'s running game actually has on the series.
Mets Lineup vs. Johnny Cueto
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Johnny Cueto has been wildly inconsistent since joining the Kansas City Royals. In 13 starts to close the regular season, the right-hander posted a 4.76 ERA and saw a severe drop in his strikeout rate.
That unpredictable production has continued into the postseason. Cueto has looked like himself at times, but it's hard for Royals fans to get a two-inning, eight-run performance in his last start against Toronto out of their minds.
Despite Cueto's struggles, he'll enter the World Series with solid career numbers against more than one Met:
| Player | H/AB | K |
| Lucas Duda | 3-for-15 | 10 |
| Daniel Murphy | 3-for-17 | 1 |
| David Wright | 6-for-25 | 4 |
| Curtis Granderson | 3-for-12 | 4 |
| Juan Lagares | 2-for-12 | 2 |
As you can see, Cueto has owned Duda during his career and has had notable success against the red-hot Daniel Murphy and veteran David Wright. In all, Cueto has held this current crop of Mets hitters to a .230/.327/.385 slash line in his career.
What matters more: current form or past success? That's a question we'll get an answer to when Cueto takes the ball in this series. The 29-year-old may not be feeling his best, but he'll be able to draw positive feelings from how he's pitched against the Mets in the past.
It's hard to give the Royals an advantage in starting pitching in any game in this series. Cueto can be the ace that they need when he's right, which makes his mindset entering the series vital to his team's success.
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Aggressive Royals Lineup vs. Mets' Hard-Throwing Starters
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On paper, the World Series will feature Kansas City's contact-driven lineup against New York's power pitching. But when digging deeper into the stats, K.C. may not have the advantages that many have projected.
As many in the baseball world have noted in the days leading up to Game 1, the Royals have excelled against hard-throwers this year. K.C. posted the highest batting average in baseball against pitches 95 mph or higher—something Mets starters offer quite frequently.
Yet, New York's staff can take advantage of an overaggressive Royals lineup with the right game plan. K.C. ranked in the top 10 in swing rate this season while finishing sixth in chase rate. Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer and Alex Rios all chased pitches outside the strike zone over 30 percent of the time this year.
On the flip side, New York finished in the top 10 in both swinging-strike percentage and making hitters chase. Jacob deGrom ranked second in MLB in chase rate, while Noah Syndergaard (33.3 percent) and Matt Harvey (32.8 percent) were able to get hitters to swing at their pitches.
If New York's staff can get ahead with Strike 1, K.C. hitters will expand their strike zones and become susceptible to pitches. If the Mets struggle with Strike 1, K.C. has proved it can handle the heat.
It sounds simple, but the series could come down to which team succeeds with its game plan early in the count.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Oct. 27.
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