NFL Predictions Week 6: Last-Minute Picks and Advice for Sunday's Schedule

In the world of truthful old sayings, the early bird gets the worm, but so too can the late arrival when it comes to NFL picks.

This is especially the case with the Sunday part of Week 6 just a few hours away. Straight-up picks have now had almost a full week of research invested in them, and the lines in Las Vegas still tout some serious flaws for those who are willing to look hard enough.

Below, let's take a look at the full slate of games and nail down picks and predictions based on said research. Sunday's schedule might look tougher than ever before with the lines meant to protect the house, but a full week of prep time should have bettors confident enough to jump into the deep end.

NFL Week 6 Odds 

Game	Spread	Predicted Winner
Cincinnati at Buffalo	CIN -3	CIN 28-21
Denver at Cleveland	DEN -3.5	DEN 23-14
Chicago at Detroit	DET -3.5	CHI 17-14
Houston at Jacksonville	E	JAC 21-20
Kansas City at Minnesota	MIN -3.5	MIN 23-20
Washington at N.Y. Jets	NYJ -7.5	NYJ 20-16
Arizona at Pittsburgh	ARI -3.5	ARI 27-14
Miami at Tennessee	TEN -1	TEN 21-17
Carolina at Seattle	SEA -7.5	CAR 24-21
San Diego at Green Bay	GB -11.5	GB 35-28
Baltimore at San Francisco	E	SF 24-23
New England at Indianapolis	NE -10	NE 48-24
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia	PHI -5.5	NYG 28-23

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.   

Last-Second Lines to Bet

New England (-10) at Indianapolis

This line has been on a steady rise since its initial posting, but the double-digit figure here isn't a reason to shy away.

The New England Patriots will rout the Indianapolis Colts in a bad way.

It's not just the somewhat-silly narrative about the Colts acting as the tattletales that led to Deflategate, either. The Colts just haven't looked great this season with or without Andrew Luck under center. Luck or not, the team shouldn't need overtime to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and should be able to beat the one-win Houston Texans by more than seven points.

New England hasn't had any problems under the direction of Tom Brady, owner of 11 touchdowns with no picks on a completion percentage north of 72. The offense has scored 28, 40, 51 and 30 points this year already.

With Luck listed as questionable, there's no reason to shy away from this over. Even if the Colts manage to fluster Brady into a mediocre game, the combination of Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount won't have any problems sustaining the run of dominance against the Patriots' AFC rivals.

Prediction: Patriots 48, Colts 24

Arizona (-3.5) at Pittsburgh 

The Super Bowl XLIII rematch will go a tad different this time around.

The Pittsburgh Steelers enter Sunday's affair off a win, but it's more an indictment of the San Diego Chargers than anything else. While a Michael Vick-led victory to keep the season somewhat alive while Ben Roethlisberger recovers from injury is great, it doesn't say much about how the team will fare against the Arizona Cardinals.

How will it? In a couple of words, not well.

Before the injury to Big Ben, the Steelers leaned on a big-play, snap-bloated offense to mask an iffy defense to mixed results. Pittsburgh cannot do the same with Vick under center, especially against a defense that has only allowed two opponents to breach the 20-point mark.

Or especially against an opponent led by Carson Palmer. NFL.com's Chris Wesseling shared some high praise for the veteran from coach Bruce Arians:

"

Arians believes Palmer is now playing as well as any QB he’s ever coached. That includes Peyton, Big Ben, Luck http://t.co/fmg87FpKf9

— Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling) October 17, 2015"

The Cardinals have posted 30 or more points in four games this year behind Palmer's 1,316 yards and 13 touchdowns to three interceptions. He's backed by an explosive ground game led by—get this—Chris Johnson; the backfield is averaging five yards per carry.

The idea of the Cardinals on the road isn't a great one per se, but the Steelers let up more than 100 rushing yards per game so far, which means Arizona's stable of backs won't have issues opening things up for Palmer through the air. Vick can't compete in a shootout.

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Steelers 14

New York at Philadelphia (-5.5)

Few things look better than an NFC East showdown on Monday Night Football, but a close look at this line should have bettors wondering how the Philadelphia Eagles got such a noticeable advantage over the New York Giants in the spread department.

Philadelphia might be at home, but this is a 2-3 team coming off a win against the sluggish two-win New Orleans Saints. Granted, quarterback Sam Bradford had his best game of the season, but it doesn't erase the close losses to solid teams that are common opponents.

Which the Giants certainly are. New York sits at 3-2 and has won three straight after close losses to fully loaded Dallas and Atlanta teams. Eli Manning has completed 66.5 percent of his passes with 10 scores to two picks and looks like an undercover name worthy of an MVP mention.

Eagles defensive coordinator Bill Davis spoke about what makes Manning so dangerous, per ESPN.com's Phil Sheridan: "Once again, it’s a high-efficiency, quick, ball-out-of-the-quarterback’s-hand offense. Eli not only makes a quick read and gets it out of his hand, if there is any pressure, he throws it away. He’s not taking a sack and he’s not throwing an interception. It’s a lot [like] what Aaron Rodgers does, too."

This short passing game that functions as a running game is sure to give the Eagles fits. There's a catch to Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly's offense—it cannot produce and control games if it doesn't have the ball. Even .500 Washington perfected this approach in an upset by controlling the clock for more than 40 minutes.

Look for Manning to control this one and steal the road victory to put distance between the Giants and everyone else in the division.

Prediction: Giants 28, Eagles 23

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Oct. 18. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.