Week 5 NFL Picks: Full Lines, Best Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

It's a game of risk-reward for bettors who want to take the dive on the early NFL Week 5 lines. 

Last week served as a great example. Those who believed the New York Giants wouldn't go down by seven against the Buffalo Bills saw a nice payout. At the other extreme, nobody could have predicted Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts would sit out against the Jacksonville Jaguars, where his team won by three instead of Las Vegas' 10.

For those brave enough to weather the early storm, there are some intriguing lines available. Las Vegas seems to like a few blowouts this week, while other spreads provide some possible upsets with nice payouts.

Here's a look at the full set of lines and picks for each.

NFL Week 5 Odds

Game	Spread	Predicted Winner
Indianapolis at Houston	NL	IND 20-14
Washington at Atlanta	ATL -9	ATL 27-20
Cleveland at Baltimore	BAL -7	BAL 23-20
Seattle at Cincinnati	NL	CIN 24-17
St. Louis at Green Bay	GB -10.5	GB 34-14
Chicago at Kansas City	KC -10.5	KC 30-13
New Orleans at Philadelphia	PHI -5.5	NO 23-14
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay	TB -2.5	JAC 17-10
Buffalo at Tennessee	BUF -2.5	BUF 27-20
Arizona at Detroit	NL	ARI 20-6
New England at Dallas	NE -9	NE 28-17
Denver at Oakland	DEN -5.5	DEN 20-16
San Francisco at New York Giants	NYG -7	NYG 23-17
Pittsburgh at San Diego	SD -3	SD 21-13

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.   

Best Early-Week Odds

Chicago at Kansas City (-10.5)

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Here's one that should stick out right away.

The Chicago Bears tout just one win and have looked miserable on both sides of the football, the exception being last week—when the team scraped out a two-point win against the Oakland Raiders at home.

Jay Cutler threw for two scores in the contest but needed 43 attempts to do so while suffering three sacks. The offense, whether he's in the game or not, hasn't scored more than 23 points in a contest.

About the Kansas City Chiefs: The record says 1-3, but so it goes with showdowns against Denver, Green Bay and Cincinnati over the course of the last three weeks. The offense continues to move the ball well, with defense being the biggest issue.

The thing is, Kansas City gets to welcome the Bears to town. Last time the Bears hit the road, they lost 26-0 in Seattle. Tamba Hali and others should feast against a line that has already allowed nine sacks, while the offense won't have any issues continuing to move the ball well.

Were this in Chicago, going under the spread might be the play. But the Bears haven't shown anything to suggest they can play a quality team close.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bears 13

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay (-2.5)

R Brent Smith/Associated Press

Look: The idea of rolling with the Jacksonville Jaguars has to be a scary one.

The notion makes sense given the franchise's history, but this matchup is like picking out an apple from a rotten bunch.

Both teams have shown promise in exactly one game this season. The Jaguars took down the Miami Dolphins, 23-20. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers surprised the New Orleans Saints, 26-19.

The difference, then? Jacksonville at least played the Colts close, Luck or not. The Buccaneers have been absolutely blown away by bad teams (Tennessee won 42-14; Houston 37-23) and look erratic at best with rookie Jameis Winston under center.

This past weekend, Winston threw four picks against Carolina at home. The defense couldn't prevent Cam Newton from throwing for two scores on 22 attempts and the Panthers as a whole from rushing for 4.0 yards per carry.

Jacksonville's formula isn't hard to figure out. Blake Bortles has Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson to spread it out to, and back T.J. Yeldon went for 105 yards on 22 carries. If the Jaguars can fluster Winston into a few mistakes, it seems probable that they'll play a ball-control approach on the way to the win.

Prediction: Jaguars 17, Buccaneers 10

New England (-9) at Dallas

What once looked like one of the season's must-see matchups isn't anymore. 

Without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, the Dallas Cowboys went to New Orleans last week and took an overtime loss to the Saints, with a hobbled Drew Brees throwing two touchdown passes. Brandon Weeden went just 16-of-26 with 246 yards and a score.

Now think about the New England Patriots, the team that has dropped 28, 40 and 51 points in wins this year and has had an extra week to prep for the Dallas defense thanks to a bye.

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Tom Brady, who has already thrown nine touchdowns with no picks, sounded disappointed that the Cowboys won't be at full strength, according to Phil Perry of CSN New England.

"I think it’s always great to play against the best players and the best that they have," Brady said. "But at the same time, football takes a toll. We have guys that are out, they have guys that are out. Obviously they have some of their very best, best players out, which is a bummer."

Brady and Co. will be at full strength. In fact, before the bye, the team even got LeGarrette Blount back in form after a sluggish start, thanks to his 78 yards and three scores in Week 3.

Before the season even began, the Dallas defense didn't stand much of a chance at stopping New England's offense. Without their two best offensive players, this one will go mostly as Las Vegas expects.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Cowboys 17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Oct. 6. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.