Big Names Who Could Be Sitting on the Postseason Roster Bubble
While MLB contenders are enjoying the excitement of impending playoff baseball, several big-name players will be sweating over the final week in fear of missing out on the October fun.
Over the next few slides, we'll identify a handful of well-known players who are in serious danger of being left off the postseason roster. Whether it's due to the numbers game, injuries or ineffectiveness, there's an increasing probability that the following names won't be called upon next month.
Players like Yasiel Puig and Adam Wainwright face a race against time in order to prove that they're healthy enough to contribute. Meanwhile, Mark Buehrle, Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon are hoping that one final start will be enough to ensure a spot on the postseason roster. And Michael Pineda? His inconsistency since returning from injury could doom his October plans.
As always, let us know what you think in the comments section below. How do you feel about your team potentially leaving these players off the postseason roster? Who else should be worried about his spot? Which of these players do you consider safe?
Success in October is often determined by which teams and players are peaking at the right time. Because of that, the following names must handle postseason roster bubble talk as the season comes to a close.
Mark Buehrle
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Mark Buehrle has been the Toronto Blue Jays' most consistent pitcher throughout 2015 but could become the odd man out of the playoff rotation now that Marcus Stroman has returned from injury.
Stroman figures to join David Price and R.A. Dickey in that rotation, leaving just one spot up for grabs for Buehrle and Marco Estrada. Buehrle has worn down a bit in the second half, recording a 5.65 ERA and allowing a .365 batting average in 14.1 September innings. Meanwhile, Estrada's 2.84 ERA in 31.2 innings this month has given him a slight edge for the final spot.
Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com believes that Estrada's recent performances and Buehrle's deteriorating health could swing the decision in Estrada's favor:
"That leaves Marco Estrada and Mark Buehrle for the final job. For a long time, it was assumed that Buehrle would be a lock, but that seems a lot more questionable after he struggled and admitted to being "banged up" in recent weeks. Estrada has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the league all year. And with a 3.28 ERA as a starter, it wouldn't make a lot of sense to move him to the bullpen. Estrada deserves to start, and he appears to hold a clear edge over Buehrle in this race.
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Stroman's 1.89 ERA in three starts since a remarkable return from ACL surgery has made Buehrle expendable. Although he deserves plenty of credit for keeping the Blue Jays afloat in the first half, the deck seems stacked against him in terms of a postseason roster spot.
Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese
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Who will earn the fourth and final spot in the New York Mets postseason rotation? Whether it's Jon Niese or Bartolo Colon, a veteran will be without a role in October.
Neither Niese nor Colon has separated himself over the course of the 2015 season. Niese has a 4.16 ERA in 29 starts, while Colon has a recorded a 4.15 ERA in 30 outings. However, Colon has pitched better as of late. The right-hander has a 2.60 ERA in September, as opposed to Niese's 5.75 ERA this month.
Because of those numbers and his lack of bullpen experience, Mike Vorkunov of NJ.com believes that Colon currently has the edge over Niese.
"That would have Niese looking on from the outside," he said. "He doesn't throw hard and he's never been a reliever, so putting him in the bullpen for a round may not be the best option. While the Mets needy a lefty in the bullpen, Niese doesn't profile like the kind that could come and blow a left-handed hitter away."
Seeing as Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are all right-handers, the southpaw Niese does have an opportunity to unseat Colon with another strong outing to finish the season. Regardless, the race for the final spot in the Mets rotation is a storyline worth monitoring over the final week.
Michael Pineda
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After an impressive first half, Michael Pineda may be pitching his way out of the New York Yankees playoff rotation.
The right-hander dominated hitters in the season's first months, striking out over nine batters per nine innings and posting a 3.64 ERA. Pineda has seen his ERA rise to a 4.84 mark in the second half, including a four-start stretch where he surrendered 14 runs in a return from a forearm injury.
Pineda has pitched better in his last two starts, allowing one earned run in 11.1 innings. But with CC Sabathia looking like his old self in September, Pineda, along with Ivan Nova, needs to impress in his final starts to lock down a role in October.
"[Sabathia] may be long past the days when he was among the best pitchers in baseball, but if the ALDS started Thursday and the Yankees went with four starters, the 35-year-old likely would be the choice ahead of Pineda or Nova," said George A. King of the New York Post.
Nova's inconsistencies, Adam Warren's inexperience and Nathan Eovaldi's untimely injury have kept the door open for Pineda to keep his spot in the postseason rotation. However, a bad start to close the season could push him outside that group for good.
Adam Wainwright
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The St. Louis Cardinals are still holding out hope that ace Adam Wainwright can contribute in some capacity in October.
Cardinals fans received a jolt of energy this week when Wainwright threw 25 pitches in a simulated game. Wainwright, who has missed the majority of 2015 with a torn Achilles, is attempting to rebound from an injury that normally requires a year to overcome in just five months.
Per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold, Wainwright will next test himself in a simulated game without a net, which will allow him to field his position on his surgically repaired leg. As Kyle Ringo of Yahoo Sports mentioned this week, Wainwright's ability to handle bunts and cover first base will be a huge factor in his playoff availability.
"Being able to field his position is the key element in whether Wainwright will have any chance to get back on the mound and attempt to help the Cardinals reach and win the World Series," Ringo said. "He will have to prove he can field bunts and cover first base to move the conversation about a return to the next step."
If Wainwright is healthy, St. Louis would love to have him on board. The right-hander has a career 3.12 ERA in 83.2 postseason innings and posted a 2.38 ERA during the 2014 season.
But with a stable of quality arms ready for the postseason, St. Louis can function just fine without Wainwright. In terms of October baseball, it may just be too little, too late for the 34-year-old ace.
Yasiel Puig
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The Los Angeles Dodgers competing in the postseason without Yasiel Puig? Something that seemed unlikely a season ago could come to fruition this October.
According to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, Puig "still cannot run at full speed, four weeks after he played in his last game, and the Dodgers are not counting on him to return this season."
Obviously if Puig's hamstring isn't healthy, there's no place for him on the postseason roster. But L.A. would surely take a 60-75 percent Puig over its other outfield options, right?
Don't be so sure. Puig, while hitting 11 homers and slugging .460 in 77 games this season, never recaptured the flame that ignited him to a monster year in 2015. In his absence, the Dodgers have fared just fine without him. The likes of Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and Scott Van Slyke have produced the seventh-highest WAR among MLB outfield units.
While Puig is undoubtedly a special player, the Dodgers are exceptionally deep with outfield personnel. In years past, losing Puig for the postseason would have been disastrous. In 2015? An argument can be made that L.A. is actually better off without its Cuban sensation.
Be that as it may, Puig will be on board for a potential World Series chase if he can prove he's healthy over the next week. Just don't be surprised if the Dodgers take their chances without him.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Sept. 27.
