Fantasy Football Week 1: Opening Rankings, Projections, Early Waiver-Wire Tips

Remember last winter, when your team—whether it was injury-ravaged, unlucky or just terrible—didn’t win a championship?

With your head bowed and some (imaginary) inspirational music playing, “I’ll win next year,” you likely thought.

It’s officially next year—so get ready.

Or maybe you’re coming off a fantasy title and are looking to shock the world—and by “world” I mean the 11 other dudes you went to school with—with a repeat run.

You get ready, too.

On Thursday, the fantasy football season officially begins. Your soldiers should already be aligned in battle formation, but let’s do some last-minute prepping before the first shot is fired.

Thursday, September 10
Sunday, September 13
Monday, September 14
Pittsburgh at New England	8:30 p.m.
Indianapolis at Buffalo	1 p.m.
Carolina at Jacksonville	1 p.m.
Kansas City at Houston	1 p.m.
Seattle at St. Louis	1 p.m.
Cleveland at New York Jets	1 p.m.
Green Bay at Chicago	1 p.m.
Miami at Washington	1 p.m.
Detroit at San Diego	4:05 p.m.
New Orleans at Arizona	4:05 p.m.
Baltimore at Denver	4:25 p.m.
Tennessee at Tampa Bay	4:25 p.m.
Cincinnati at Oakland	4:25 p.m.
New York Giants at Dallas	8:30 p.m.
Philadelphia at Atlanta	7:10 p.m.
Minnesota at San Francisco	10:20 p.m.

QB

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Aaron Rodgers GB	21.1
2	Russell Wilson SEA	20.1
3	Ryan Tannehill MIA	19.4
4	Tom Brady NE	18.5
5	Peyton Manning DEN	18.4
6	Matt Ryan ATL	18.3
7	Andrew Luck IND	18.3
8	Philip Rivers SD	17.5
9	Tony Romo DAL	17.3
10	Cam Newton CAR	17.1
11	Matthew Stafford DET	17.0
12	Carson Palmer ARI	16.9
13	Drew Brees NO	16.4
14	Sam Bradford PHI	16.1
15	Colin Kaepernick SF	15.8
16	Joe Flacco BAL	15.6
17	Jay Cutler CHI	15.4
18	Andy Dalton CIN	14.9
19	Eli Manning NYG	14.9
20	Ben Roethlisberger PIT	14.7

Beast: Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Yup, Tom Brady. That’s right.

Definitely roll with Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck if you don’t have the angriest man in New England, but Brady is third in line.

And it has nothing to do with his receivers or the Pittsburgh Steelers defense.

Brady has been very coy with the media since the Deflategate saga crawled to its painfully overdue death, but he’s going to go crazy on Thursday night. Months of frustration and anger are going to come out as bullet scores to Rob Gronkowski—and, consequently, as a monstrous fantasy day.

Dud: Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets

If there is ever a game that will finish 0-0, it’s the New York Jets against the Cleveland Browns.

Both teams have strong defenses and presumably weak offenses, so don’t expect a shootout or anything near one. If Fitzpatrick can toss for a score, you’re lucky. Don’t start him.

Sleepers: The Rooks

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First-year mobile quarterbacks just seem to be strong fantasy players, don’t they?

Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and so on. Why not Marcus Mariota and/or Jameis Winston?

The Tennessee Titans open up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which isn’t an overly daunting matchup for either side. This could be a high-scoring affair just as easily as it could be a 6-3 stinker.

Enter either door with caution, but Winston has much better weapons in Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin, so lean toward him.

RB

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Adrian Peterson MIN	17
2	Eddie Lacy GB	17
3	DeMarco Murray PHI	16
4	Jeremy Hill CIN	16
5	Carlos Hyde SF	16
6	Jamaal Charles KC	16
7	CJ Anderson DEN	15
8	Marshawn Lynch SEA	15
9	Mark Ingram NO	15
10	Joseph Randle DAL	13
11	Isaiah Crowell CLE	12
12	Ryan Mathews PHI	12
13	Dion Lewis NE	11
14	Matt Forte CHI	11
15	DeAngelo Williams PIT	11
16	Frank Gore IND	9
17	Latavius Murray OAK	9
18	Andre Ellington AZ	9
19	Jonathan Stewart CAR	9
20	Justin Forsett BAL	9

Beast: DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia Eagles

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Falcons allowed an average of 21 points to opposing runners last season, which was third-most in the NFL.

Though it should be noted that Murray was with the Dallas Cowboys last season, he still led the league in rushing and tied with Marshawn Lynch for the most touchdowns.

Yes, he’s with the Philadelphia Eagles now, but let’s not forget who we’re dealing with.

Dud: Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys

Joseph Randle takes the reins from Murray, but contrary to popular belief, he’s not the lone back in Dallas.

Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar are also in the mix.

"You know the competitor in me definitely wants to be the No. 1 guy that goes out there. But at the same time, it's like, man, you know we're going to split carries," McFadden told KRLD-FM when asked if starting is important to him, per NFL.com. "So whoever goes out there or goes out there second—I just know whenever I do get a chance to get the ball in my hands, I'm going to go out there and go 110 percent."

Not a great sign for Randle owners. You have to play him because you (probably) took him too early, but don’t expect Murray numbers.

Sleeper: Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The flip side to Winston starting at quarterback is perhaps a run-heavy, safe approach taken by coach Lovie Smith.

By all accounts, Martin has looked more like the Muscle Hamster he was his rookie year than the low-end fantasy back he’s been the past two years.

Tennessee allowed the second-most points to opposing RBs last season, so maybe Martin grounds and pounds them into submission.

WR

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Demaryius Thomas DEN	17
2	Julio Jones ATL	17
3	Calvin Johnson DET	15
4	Emmanuel Sanders DEN	15
5	Randall Cobb GB	15
6	Antonio Brown PIT	15
7	Odell Beckham Jr. NYG	15
8	Dez Bryant DAL	15
9	Jordan Matthews PHI	14
10	AJ Green CIN	14
11	Mike Evans TB	13
12	Nelson Agholor PHI	13
13	Jarvis Landry MIA	13
14	Alshon Jeffrey CHI	12
15	Torrey Smith SF	11
16	DeAndre Hopkins HOU	8
17	Davante Adams GB	8
18	DeSean Jackson WAS	8
19	T.Y. Hilton IND	8
20	Golden Tate DET	8

Beast: Julio Jones

ESPN’s Matthew Berry recently predicted that Julio Jones will have the “best fantasy football season for a wide receiver in the history of the NFL.”

Now, that’s bold. But the Atlanta Falcons freak is certainly in for a monster season, and he’s got a tantalizing matchup with the Eagles on Monday night.

Philly had trouble slowing down big-time receivers last year, and that defense is going to get a serious test against Jones in Week 1. With all kinds of question marks in the backfield, expect Matt Ryan to go to Jones early and often.

Dud: Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Part of the reason Aaron Rodgers’ receivers have been so good is a) because he’s their quarterback and b) because there have been multiple. The deep threat of Jordy Nelson opened things up for Randall Cobb, but a torn ACL now takes that away.

While most believe Cobb will benefit from Nelson’s injury, it could also hurt his numbers initially as teams force players like Davante Adams and tight end Richard Rodgers to beat them.

Once Rodgers proves his other weapons are threats, too, Cobb’s numbers will explode. Don’t expect him to be elite right away, though.

Sleeper: DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins

With all the talk about the Redskins’ quarterback situation, the strong season put forth by DeSean Jackson in 2014-15 seems to get overshadowed.

Despite the inconsistency from his passer, D-Jax hauled in 56 grabs for 1,169 yards and six scores. He averaged 20.9 yards per reception, the second-best number of his career.

Jackson also had three monster touchdowns with now-starter Kirk Cousins at the helm last season. Cousins will throw picks, but he’s not afraid to air it out, and Jackson will be the beneficiary of most of the team’s big plays.

TE

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Rob Gronkowski NE	15
2	Ladarius Green SD	12
3	Jimmy Graham SEA	5
4	Martellus Bennett CHI	5
5	Delanie Walker TEN	5
6	Charles Clay BUF	5
7	Greg Olsen CAR	5
8	Jordan Cameron MIA	5
9	Jason Witten SAL	5
10	Heath Miller PIT	5
11	Kyle Rudolph MIN	4
12	Gary Barnidge CLE	4
13	Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB	4
14	Zach Ertz PHI	4
15	Jordan Reed WAS	4
16	Larry Donnell NYG	4
17	Jared Cook STL	4
18	Travis Kelce KC	4
19	Owen Daniels DEN	4
20	Garrett Graham HOU	3

Beast: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

In a field of pups, Gronk is a pit bull.

Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce are in the mix, but nobody—nobody—is touching Brady’s top target.

With Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount out, expect Gronkowski to serve as a ball-magnet.

Dud: Julius Thomas

The sad reality of fantasy football is that any tight end outside of Gronk could really disappoint you. Even the three guys in the tier under him are a tad iffy in their own ways.

For now, let’s have a moment of silence for the owners who reached on Julius Thomas, who despite his Jacksonville Jaguars colors could have been a decent starter.

The injury-prone Thomas is out for a month and has given us all another reminder to either get Gronk early or wait it out on draft night.

Sleeper: Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Rodgers is firmly ahead of Andrew Quarless on the Packers depth chart, and his quarterback will be looking for warm, healthy bodies to throw to with Nelson out and defenses draped all over Cobb.

Adams will get some serious looks, but Rodgers is in line for some action in the red zone, too.

Plus, Aaron Rodgers loves to beat up on the Chicago Bears. Expect a big game from No. 12, and as a result, a possible outburst from a guy at a different position with the same last name.

D/ST

Rank	Team	Projection
1	Bills	15
2	Packers	15
3	Panthers	15
4	Jets	15
5	Texans	15
6	Lions	15
7	Dolphins	15
8	Buccaneers	15
9	Seahawks	14
10	Rams	12
11	Cardinals	12
12	49ers	11
13	Vikings	11
14	Browns	11
15	Saints	10

Advice

Alright, look—if you’re really hard-pressed to find yourself a good defense, there is a workaround.

Become a drifter, a vagrant owner of the notorious D/ST. Change it every week if needed. Whether you have a 10- or 12-team league, that leaves nearly a third of team defenses available on a given week, assuming nobody owns two.

For Week 1, take a look at matchups. Rookie quarterback? Potential for some turnovers there. No running game? That means tons of throwing and the potential for some picks.

You should be set for this week, but in the coming ones, keep an eye on the waiver wire with this in mind: The opponent is often more important than your actual D.

K

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Steven Hauschka SEA	16
2	Stephen Gostkowski NE	16
3	Mason Crosby GB	16
4	Dan Carpenter BUF	15
5	Phil Dawson SF	15
6	Nick Folk NYJ	15
7	Matt Prater DET	15
8	Mike Nugent CIN	12
9	Adam Vinatieri IND	11
10	Randy Bullock HOU	11

Advice

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Kickers are a really crapshoot, so don’t overthink it.

Mason Crosby plays on Aaron Rodgers’ team, so that gives him a lot of scoring opportunities. It could also mean four touchdowns and, consequently, just four extra points and no field goals.

Bad offenses don’t score a lot of touchdowns, so they kick a lot of field goals, right? Yes, but sometimes that also means the team can’t get past midfield.

Again, it’s a crapshoot. Your best bet is a kicker with an iron leg in normal-to-nice weather conditions.

Waiver Wire: Players to Watch

The following players are owned in less than half of ESPN’s standard leagues, but they’re definitely worthy of a spot on your bench.

You could be that guy who snagged Odell Beckham Jr. before he exploded.

Matt Jones, Washington Redskins RB

He’s owned in 19.2 percent of leagues, but the bruising Redskins runner is set to take away some of Alfred Morris’ thunder.

Or, eventually, all of it.

Jones is a 6’2” 231-pounder who runs at defenders like they just heckled his grandmother. He’s had a slew of Marshawn Lynch-like runs this preseason, and it’s only a matter of time before he creeps into fantasy relevance.

Terrance West, Tennessee Titans RB

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Finally out of the mess that was the Cleveland Browns backfield, Terrance West has a chance to emerge as the Titans’ top gun.

He was just acquired on Sunday, so it might take him a little while to get acclimated to things in Tennessee. But West, owned by just 22.2 percent of ESPN players, had six double-digit fantasy outings while wrestling Isaiah Crowell and Ben Tate for touches.

Bishop Sankey owners, especially, need to put a claim in for West immediately.

James Jones, Green Bay Packers WR

After struggling with the Oakland Raiders a year ago, James Jones is reuniting with Green Bay, the team with which he made a name for himself.

Jones, who is climbing up the ladder at 31 years old, led the NFL with 14 touchdown receptions while catching balls from Rodgers in 2012.

Lacking the explosiveness and sharpness he once had, Jones is still a sure pair of hands who could see a decent amount of targets while young Pack receivers like Jeff Janis and Ty Montgomery prove themselves.

All stats and ownership information is based on ESPN standard leagues. Charted rankings are courtesy of Fantasy Pros and Fantasy Sharks.