Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 19's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice
The clock is ticking to orchestrate a last-minute fantasy baseball trade.
If the trade deadline hasn't already passed, many leagues will close their trade window soon. Monday marks the end date for several make-believe general managers. There go your weekend plans.
Let's hope fantasy GMs exuded a more proactive approach than actual MLB executives, handling business before the final hour to maximize their newly earned gains. Yet it's human nature to procrastinate in all walks of life. I could have written this introduction on Tuesday, but I waited until Thursday.
Still have a chance to wheel and deal? Seize the opportunity to better your squad for the stretch run, starting with these buy-low and sell-high candidates.
Buy Low: Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox
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An intelligent adversary won't fall for it, but it's worth a try.
Cooling down from an otherworldly hot streak, Chris Sale surrendered seven runs in consecutive outings. The Chicago White Sox ace now has a 6.39 ERA over his last five starts, ballooning his season ERA to 3.47.
That's not the mark of a top-five fantasy starter, but he hasn't descended from the elite pantheon of aces. Sale still sports a 2.50 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and MLB's second-highest strikeouts-minus-walks percentage (26.8) behind Clayton Kershaw.
Over his recent rough patch, the stellar southpaw has endured an inflated .416 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) despite generating a subdued 21.5 hard-hit percentage. These diverging outliers don't jibe, so expect normalcy down the stretch.
Although he faces a steep uphill climb in the American League Cy Young Award chase, he remains the AL's top fantasy hurler. Don't make an insulting low-ball offer, but see if his owner will sell the superstar for 85-90 cents on the dollar.
Sell High: Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins
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Miguel Sano is enjoying a rousing big league welcoming, hitting .284/.397/.552 with seven home runs through 35 games. If the Minnesota Twins third baseman didn't have everyone's attention before, he grabbed it with Wednesday's two-homer, six-RBI outburst.
A star prospect whose progression was stunted by Tommy John surgery, he has returned at full strength, clubbing 15 homers in 66 Triple-A contests before receiving a promotion. He also flashed sprinkles of speed throughout the minors, recording five steals this year and 11 in 2013.
In dynasty formats, hold tight for dear life. He also gains value in leagues that oddly award him shortstop eligibility despite moving to third base three years ago. Otherwise, prepare for an inevitable rookie slump.
Sano has overcome a 33.3 strikeout percentage with help of an unsustainable .406 BABIP, which exceeds clips set by all qualified hitters. A developing batter with a 64.1 contact percentage should see his batting average decay with normalized bounces on batted balls.
Selling hotshot youngsters holds a mixed success rate. While anyone who traded Joc Pederson in June is laughing to the bank, those who quickly jettisoned Carlos Correa live with regret. Don't ship Sano off for the first offer slapped on the table, but see if the hype machine is overheating.
Buy Low: Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals
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Labeled a second-round pick entering spring training, Anthony Rendon's one-homer, zero-steal campaign makes him one of this year's biggest busts. Those who drafted before his knee issues appeared got stuck with a highly appraised waste of a roster spot instead of Josh Donaldson or Bryce Harper.
As a result, anyone who stayed supportive for this long is growing weary. The 25-year-old has yet to bounce back from his season's second absence, hitting .224 since returning from the disabled list in late July.
Waiting for the good part? Recall why everyone loved the infielder so much during the winter. Last season, he hit .287/.351/.473 with 21 homers, 17 steals and 111 runs scored. Unable to poke any holes in his breakout, some drafters deemed him 2015's top second baseman.
Through 35 drowsy games, Rendon has actually upped his walk percentage to 10.8. Even if healthy, he probably would have fallen short of another 20 dingers, but he'd certainly produce some power.
Pursue him the way you'd haggle for a used car with dents and plenty of mileage. If you can attain damaged goods for cheap, great. If his owner still sees a mint-condition star, move on.
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Sell High: Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS, Boston Red Sox
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It doesn't get much greedier than wanting more from a 22-year-old shortstop hitting .314. But, well, it would be nice if Xander Bogaerts offered more than three home runs and a 3.8 walk percentage.
Nobody can complain about a relatively late pick leading his position in batting average with seven steals, 53 runs and 54 RBI. He's having a great season as Yunel Escobar with better placement in his club's batting order, but the rising star remains too average-reliant for comfort.
With little change to his line-drive rate and a notable drop in his 25.3 hard-hit percentage, Bogaerts doesn't look like a new man as much as one coasting on a .368 BABIP. Despite slashing his strikeout rate to 15.7 percent, he's swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone.
If a 32-year-old journeyman touted the same stats, owners would reluctantly scoop him off the waiver wire and trade him at the earliest convenience. Although still a superstar in the making, he's currently a fortunate contact hitter who hasn't gone deep since June 15. For the right price, that's expendable in redraft formats.
Buy Low: Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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A 2.67 ERA and 0.76 WHIP will hardly cajole anyone to dump Kenley Jansen. Yet looking at his 22 saves and 55 strikeouts, it's easy to forget the Los Angeles Dodgers reliever didn't begin his season until mid-May.
Late debut aside, he still has more saves and strikeouts than many closers. Along with a 16.32 strikeouts per nine rate, he has issued a measly four walks to amass a 44.5 strikeouts-minus-walks (K-BB) percentage. By comparison, Aroldis Chapman carries a 30.4 K-BB percentage.
His ERA says really good, but a 20.1 swinging-strike percentage and 0.71 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) depict a transcendent monster. Other than Chapman, there's no other reliever anyone should prefer, and even that's a toss-up due to the Cincinnati Reds fireballer's higher walk rate.
Need saves or any other pitching category besides wins? Jansen provides a significant upgrade to the standard closer across the board. Perhaps his owner doesn't appreciate the grand scope of his worth.
Sell High: Carlos Martinez, SP/RP, St. Louis Cardinals
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Carlos Martinez's transition to the rotation couldn't have gone better. In 21 starts for the St. Louis Cardinals, the 23-year-old righty has registered a 2.65 ERA, 55.0 ground-ball percentage and 9.25 strikeouts per nine innings.
Great, no reason to turn this section into a downer, right? Well…
Martinez's 3.46 FIP points to some substantive, yet not drastic, regression. It's not enough to predict a downward spiral, but his stock won't grow any higher this year. An 83.4 strand rate, third-highest among qualified starters, will coax said falloff.
Also worth noting, he spent most of last year in the bullpen, finishing the season with 99.2 innings. His 137.1 innings have already shattered a professional high, causing concerns for decay or rest resulting from those fears.
According to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, the Cardinals have no plans to shut him down or limit his innings. "I'm happy about that," Martinez said after accruing 108 pitches on Tuesday. "I feel confident. This year I came here to work hard, throw as many innings as I can pitch and try to help the Cardinals make it to the World Series."
His owners might not enjoy it as much. He has already surrendered 25 hits and nine runs over his past three outings. Over the final seven weeks, he's not a top-25 starter.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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