Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 18's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice
Not everyone needs an earth-shattering trade to save their fantasy baseball season.
A subdued transaction often gets the job done, especially in larger leagues where depth matters. Most peers also deserve the benefit of a doubt to not give away a superstar for nothing. Nobody was actually worried about Clayton Kershaw in May, right?
As a result, the following highlighted names, particularly the buy-low recommendations, will look boring to some owners. In shallow mixed leagues, they might even remain up for grabs on the waiver wire, eliminating the arduous task of haggling with a competitor.
Nobody should have to break the bank to acquire these underperforming contributors. For the trio of standouts on the other side of the spectrum, managers might be willing to clear their funds and overpay.
Buy Low: Daniel Murphy, 2B/3B, New York Mets
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Daniel Murphy has actually spawned more fence-clearing power this season, cranking out seven home runs during 84 games. Yes, that's considered a strong output for the New York Mets infielder about to receive some love.
Even after hitting .351 (13-for-37) over his past 10 games, the 30-year-old is hitting a paltry .275 this season. That leaves plenty of room to rise from one of baseball's finest contact hitters.
A career .288 hitter, Murphy has only batted below .285 once in his career (.266 in 2009). Despite his low average, he sports MLB's second-lowest strikeout percentage (7.6) behind Andrelton Simmons and second-highest contact percentage (92.1) after Michael Brantley. For what it's worth, his robust 7.0 walk percentage also represents his highest mark since 2008.
In deeper formats, a middle infielder hitting .290 in a revitalized lineup holds value. He'll become even more valuable if he starts again. A quad injury has limited him to one steal in three attempts this season, but he poached double-digit bags in each of the past three seasons.
Sell High: Brandon Crawford, SS, San Francisco Giants
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Brandon Crawford, undrafted in most standard mixed leagues, is essentially having the same season as Hanley Ramirez, frequently snagged in the second or third round.
Crawford: .263, 19 HR, 69 RBI, 54 R, 4 SB
Ramirez: .260, 19 HR, 51 RBI, 56 R, 6 SB
Their numbers are even across the board, with exception to Crawford's gaudier RBI tally. No other shortstop-eligible player has hit as many homers as either of them, making the San Francisco Giants' breakout star MLB's leader among guys actually manning the scarce position this year.
Everyone keeps waiting for the 28-year-old, initially a poor hitter who stuck around for his defense, to cool off in the power department. Instead, he squashed another two dingers on Monday, giving him six after the All-Star break.
To be fair, he has improved his weighted on-base average (wOBA) in each of the past three years. Yet he went from modest gains to a seismic jump, leaping from .309 to .347. He has flexed serious muscle this year despite his fly-ball percentage lowering from 42.0 to 35.4.
A man with a career 8.3 home run/fly-ball percentage (HR/FB) now enjoys an 18.5 clip, enabling his unlikely power surge. While Crawford is now an above-average offensive shortstop, don't trust the hulking power.
Buy Low: Brandon Moss, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals
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Brandon Moss, on the other hand, only gets fantasy consideration for his power. While he's presented 15 blasts after nailing 55 the previous two seasons, he has also derailed into an average liability at .212.
Following last year's late spiral, the lefty slugger is oddly hitting far worse against righties than lefties. His struggles prompted the Cleveland Indians to the St. Louis Cardinals, who will attempt to work their devil magic on the 31-year-old.
Perhaps the Cardinals are on to something. Despite his dreadful season, he is making strong contact with a 39.1 hard-hit percentage. The lefty pull hitter is struggling against the shift, but defenses can't constantly corral forceful fly balls and liners.
Look at Lucas Duda, a similarly profiled big bopper who emerged from hibernation to crush nine homers through eight games. Someone desperate for a power push should take a cheap flier on Moss, who could easily catch fire and generate 10 long balls the rest of the way.
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Sell High: Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels
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Young pitchers are exciting, but a young pitcher with a 1.97 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through seven starts is especially intriguing. A far cry from his 5.83 ERA last season, Andrew Heaney joins a long list of post-hype prospects to flourish once the spotlight wanes.
The 24-year-old lefty has not relinquished more than two runs in a single start this season for the Los Angeles Angels, catching most leagues' attention. In semi-competitive circles, he parted ways with the waiver wire weeks ago—if he was ever there in the first place.
Those who snagged him should now research his trade stock. Heaney has netted 10 strikeouts over his past three outings, giving an underwhelming 34 punchouts through 45.2 frames. Yet a .238 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), 85.1 percent strand rate and 6.0 HR/FB percentage have helped him overcome a 3.74 expected FIP (xFIP).
While a highly regarded prospect, his current success overstates his potential. He grades out more as a future mid-tier starter than ace, making him a possible sell-high in all formats.
To break the fourth wall for a moment, I recently exchanged Heaney for Rougned Odor in a dynasty league. While the pitcher has limited upside as a solid rotation piece, the scorching-hot 21-year-old is a top-10 second baseman as soon as now.
Buy Low: Collin McHugh, SP, Houston Astros
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Turns out there's proper reason to beware a fringe prospect who transforms a meddling career into a breakout campaign out of nowhere. After a surprising 2014 renaissance during which he notched a 2.73 ERA and 9.14 strikeouts per nine innings, Collin McHugh has reverted into an uneven hurler.
He hasn't, however, fallen off the map completely. Along with a 4.27 ERA and 6.99 K/9, the 28-year-old righty has recorded a 3.85 fielding independent pitching (FIP). That's only enough to put him in mixed-league streamer territory, but there's enough upside to take notice.
Since surrendering eight runs on June 13, the Houston Astros starter has issued a 3.19 ERA. He also has a lower line-drive rate (19.4) and hard-hit percentage (26.0) than during last year's run.
Although he'll likely never punch out a batter per frame again, he has netted a 10.3 swinging-strike percentage, down a tad from last year's 11.0 percent. Those whiffs should lead him closer to a 7.5-8.0 K/9.
Unfortunately, his 13 victories may interfere with a buy-low initiative. He certainly hasn't pitched well enough to win as many games as Johnny Cueto and Corey Kluber combined, but that's what happens when you give a meaningless category meaning.
Sell High: Glen Perkins, RP, Minnesota Twins
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Before the deadline, all rotisserie managers should take inventory on their closer situation. Those with a comfortable lead in saves should peddle their relievers for offense and/or starting pitching, as there are no bonus points for dominating a category.
With 29 saves on the season, Glen Perkins has helped some owners build an advantage. While he has converted every opportunity, he holds no control of how many chances come his way. The only team with a winning record (54-53) and negative run differential (minus-10), the Minnesota Twins are starting to fall.
Regression has kicked in with eight losses over their past 10 games, so fewer leads will hang around for Perkins to wrap up. Yet that's all out of his hands. A 7.95 K/9 rate and 3.56 FIP—unflattering marks for a closer—could spell trouble.
He's starting to slip, surrendering six runs over his past four appearances. It's not what anyone wants to see from someone shelled for 10 runs during his final 6.1 innings last year, causing him to pack up early as head-to-head players competed for championships.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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