Identifying the 10 Biggest X-Factors of MLB's 2015 2nd Half
With the second half of the 2015 MLB regular season beginning Friday night, why not analyze which players will have the biggest say in how the playoff race will shake out?
Timing is critical in every aspect of life, and that adage holds true in sports. Players who find their groove in the second half can spark their teams to postseason glory.
With MLB in the midst of incredible parity, there are a host of potential X-factors throughout the league.
Young prospects like Carlos Correa and Corey Seager can infuse their clubs with a youthful exuberance that revitalizes the organizations.
Players such as Matt Cain, Kevin Gausman and David Wright can return from injuries to serve as pseudo-deadline acquisitions.
Trade targets like Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto can completely alter the landscape of the game by landing with a pitching-needy contender.
Regardless of each player's current situation, the following names will play enormous roles in terms of playoff seeding. Their ability to perform at a high level can drastically change how the playoff race looks come October.
Let's get started with our honorable mentions!
Honorable Mentions
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Justin Verlander: The Detroit Tigers rank 25th in starters' ERA. Justin Verlander has missed most of 2015, but a productive return to action would be a big boost for a shaky rotation sans David Price.
Jon Lester: The Chicago Cubs have managed to contend this season without Jon Lester's best. He has a 3.59 ERA in 18 starts. Imagine how dangerous the Cubs can be if he lowers that mark closer to 3.00?
Jung Ho Kang: Jung Ho Kang has turned out to be one of the steals of the offseason. With Josh Harrison set to miss up to two months with a thumb injury, according to MLB.com's Adam Berry, Kang's ability to man third base will be critical for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Corey Seager
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The Los Angeles Dodgers have very few holes, but the shortstop position is definitely an area of concern.
Jimmy Rollins has been abysmal at the dish in 2015. The veteran shortstop has posted a slash line of .212/.265/.335 in 87 games. He has also cost the Dodgers four defensive runs, ranking 17th out of 22 MLB shortstops with at least 600 innings in that category.
A team that's as desperate to win as the Dodgers can't afford that type of production at the game's most important position. For that reason, Corey Seager should be on the way to the big leagues before the end of the month.
Seager is Baseball America's top minor league prospect. The 21-year-old has advanced all the way to Triple-A this season and is hitting over .280 with eight homers in 65 games. He is a year removed from hitting close to .350 with 20 homers in 2014.
With Seager's continued development and Rollins' diminishing abilities, something that seemed unlikely at the beginning of 2015 is now a very real possibility. The higher-ups in Los Angeles seem to be headed for a rather difficult decision.
"Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers' president of baseball operations, would not say whether he considers Seager ready for the major leagues," said Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. "He said the Dodgers have been pleased with how well Seager has played and, perhaps even more, how strongly he has rebounded from his few struggles."
There's something to be said for Rollins and his extensive experience, which could be a huge asset for L.A. during its playoff push. But if he gets his opportunity, Seager could have a similar impact to the one Carlos Correa has had in Houston this year.
Ervin Santana
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When Ervin Santana was busted for performance-enhancing drugs at the beginning of the season, even the most loyal Minnesota Twins fan couldn't have expected him to return to a team right in the thick of the American League playoff picture.
But as the second half begins, the Twins are just four games out of first place in the American League Central and 4.5 games clear of falling out of one of the two AL wild-card spots.
Because of that, Santana's return is a much bigger deal.
Minnesota starters may rank 11th in MLB in ERA, but his experience and ability are too potent of a combination to be overlooked. For now, Trevor May has been moved to the bullpen to make way for Santana in the rotation.
Last year with the Atlanta Braves, Santana went 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA and racked up more than eight strikeouts per nine innings. The Twins inked him to the richest contract in team history (four years, $55 million) before his PED suspension.
For manager Paul Molitor and the Twins, there's plenty of risk when it comes to Santana. Most of those concerns are chemistry-based, especially because Santana won't be eligible for postseason play if the Twins advance that far.
"I'm aware of how it might affect the overall chemistry, particularly on the person involved if we have to remove somebody, how that's going to be received," Molitor told Brian Murphy of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "My job and leadership is to get the players to see the big picture."
But if Santana can pitch like he did in his first and third starts back from suspension (15.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K), Minnesota's chances of qualifying for the postseason will only improve. Santana will serve as a pseudo-midseason acquisition for a Twins team that needed reinforcements but is reluctant to mortgage the future by trading its elite prospects.
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C.J. Cron
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C.J. Cron figured to be an integral part of the Los Angeles Angels offense this season after a breakout rookie campaign in 2014. He hit 11 homers in 79 games, leading many to believe his best was yet to come.
But Cron's 2015 has been a roller coaster with some ugly lows. The 25-year-old hit just .195 in his first 23 games, which resulted in a demotion to Triple-A in May. As a team, the Angels struggled as well, hovering around .500 and falling behind the Houston Astros in the American League West.
Being a part of the offensive struggles wasn't easy for Cron to cope with. When he was recalled in late June, he was determined to make a difference for the Halos.
"It was hard in a sense that I wasn't helping the team win," Cron told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. "The offense wasn't clicking, we weren't doing things to score runs, and I felt like I was a part of that negativity. Coming back here, my main goal was to help the team win games."
Since Cron has returned to the majors, all he's done is rake and help the Angels climb to the top of the AL West at the All-Star break. He is hitting .485 with three homers and 11 RBI in nine July games.
L.A.'s record during the month? They're 8-3.
The Angels have improved to 16th in MLB in runs scored this season. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols need help, and Cron has the capability to protect them in the lineup.
If Cron continues to stay hot, the Angels could be looking at back-to-back AL West titles.
Matt Cain
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Let's take a minute to appreciate the incredible consistency that Matt Cain displayed from 2006 to 2012.
The right-hander won 83 games over that period with a 3.31 ERA. He posted a sub-3.00 ERA in four of those seasons and only exceeded 4.00 in his first year as a starter in 2006.
But that version of Cain seems like a distant memory. Since then, the 30-year-old's career has been marred with injury setbacks and inconsistencies.
Cain recently returned from various injuries and has made three starts before the trade deadline. Those outings were a mixed bag, but he allowed zero earned runs and fanned seven hitters in his last outing before the All-Star break.
That 2012 version of Cain mentioned above? Yeah, it was on display in his last start. A performance like that meant a lot to Cain, who has endured plenty over the last few seasons.
“It definitely does,” he told Steve Kroner of the San Francisco Chronicle. “I mentioned that to [Ryan Vogelsong]. It’s been a long time. It’s been a long road. It’s definitely been a lot of work, and I can’t give the trainers enough credit. They found a way to keep me kind of grounded for the long haul.”
There's no guarantee that Cain will remain healthy and productive down the stretch, but if he can, a shaky San Francisco rotation will receive a significant boost.
Carlos Correa
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High-profile prospects don't always steal the show when they arrive in the major leagues, but that hasn't been a problem for Carlos Correa.
The Houston Astros shortstop has made an immediate impact since his promotion in June. In 32 games, Correa is slashing .275/.310/.500 with seven homers, 20 RBI and five steals. He's also flashed the leather, recording two defensive runs saved in that time.
Correa has captivated the baseball world with his seamless transition to the big leagues. Opinions like the following one from John Sickels of Minor League Ball, a SB Nation affiliate, have become commonplace among MLB talking heads:
"This is probably the easiest bit of analysis I've written this year and hardly a revelation, but Correa's first three weeks are totally for real and not a fluke in any way. He'll need to make some adjustments at some point once the pitchers get a better look at him, but given the totality of his amateur and professional career and his stellar makeup, it seems extremely likely that any necessary adjustments will be made.
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The Astros have positioned themselves as legitimate playoff contenders in the American League. Correa is only 20, but his rare blend of talent could be the determining factor in the AL West.
Kevin Gausman
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In June of last season, Kevin Gausman took over a spot in the Baltimore Orioles rotation. The rookie proceeded to start 20 games and post a 3.57 ERA in more than 100 innings.
After an electric showing in the 2014 postseason, he figured to be a full-time starter for the O's this season. But injuries and inconsistencies have derailed the right-hander's sophomore campaign.
Gausman was given an opportunity with Baltimore before the All-Star break, but he surrendered seven earned runs in 3.2 innings. The 24-year-old was shelled because of an elevated fastball he never seemed to locate well.
"I felt every fastball I threw they were swinging at today," Gausman told Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. "Their report was that they were going to swing at my fastballs, and I had some trouble locating it tonight, and I think I threw maybe one too many. I wish I would have mixed in a little more off-speed, but that’s what this game is all about. It’s about learning."
Gausman was optioned to Triple-A over the break, with the intent of keeping him in rhythm for another chance to stick in the Baltimore rotation in the second half. In his start at Norfolk, he twirled five scoreless innings in a no-decision.
Baltimore starters rank 22nd in MLB in ERA this season. In order to catch the New York Yankees in the American League East, the O's rotation must improve outside of Ubaldo Jimenez and Wei-Yin Chen.
Gausman has the talent to be that upgrade. It's just a matter of putting it all together like he did a season ago.
David Wright
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David Wright has played in just eight games this season, but he can still be a huge factor in how the New York Mets finish in the National League playoff picture.
Wright was diagnosed with spinal stenosis earlier this season, a back condition that caused issues with his hamstring and other body parts. He's been unable to return to Queens so far in 2015, but Wright remains confident he'll be back sometime in the second half.
“I don’t know," Wright told Adam Rubin of ESPN.com. "I don’t make those decisions. But I’m preparing and progressing where I feel very confident that barring any kind of crazy setback that I’m going to be able to play, and hopefully play well.”
According to general manager Sandy Alderson, Wright hasn't been able to begin baseball activities. Time is running out on Wright this season, and the Mets could really use his offensive abilities.
Despite a fantastic young pitching staff, the Mets rank 29th in runs scored. That's what happens when players like John Mayberry Jr. and Eric Campbell are getting consistent at-bats.
Not only would Wright's bat be a huge upgrade for the New York offense, but his leadership and importance to the organization would give the Mets a huge emotional lift. If he can return to full health this season, don't count the Mets out in the NL East.
Johnny Cueto
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For as fantastic as Johnny Cueto has been over the course of this decade, he often isn't included in the conversation regarding the game's top hurlers.
But he has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in every year since 2011. The 29-year-old is coming off a 20-win, 2.25-ERA season in 2014 and would have won the NL Cy Young if not for some guy named Clayton Kershaw.
As for this season, Cueto has continued to produce at a high level. He's posted a 2.73 ERA in 17 starts this season. He has fanned more than 24 percent of the batters he's faced while reducing his walks per nine innings by nearly a full walk.
Obviously, a pitcher with that type of ability could drastically alter MLB's playoff landscape.
After plenty of speculation, Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported this week that the Cincinnati Reds "are prepared to trade" Cueto before the deadline. He's a free-agent-to-be and will likely command a contract similar to Jon Lester's six-year, $155 million deal from last winter.
The Reds can't pay that and thus hold one of the key cards on the trade market. Contenders around the league will vie for his services, and he'll be a major factor in whichever race he's thrown into.
Jason Heyward
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The St. Louis Cardinals took a huge chance by trading for free-agent-to-be Jason Heyward before the 2015 season. Now, with injuries to Matt Adams and Matt Holliday, Heyward needs to realize his limitless potential.
He has put together a rather pedestrian campaign this year. He's slashing .277/.332/.424 with nine homers and 12 steals. An elite defender, he has saved 10 defensive runs in right field for the Cards as well.
But those numbers don't look nearly as dreadful considering Heyward hit a putrid .217 in April. The 25-year-old bounced back, putting together a spectacular June with a .326 average and four homers. Heyward is known for saving his best work for the home stretch of the season and looks to be on a similar track in 2015.
He undoubtedly felt pressure after being acquired by St. Louis. After a rough beginning to his career as a Redbird, he seems to be settling in with his new team.
"After an uneasy transition to a new team, Heyward seems to be settling in," said Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "Perhaps he is more relaxed now and not feeling as much pressure to make a positive impression on his team and fans. To be at your best, it's important to have comfort and confidence."
With the Pittsburgh Pirates closing in, the Cardinals need Heyward's best for the season's final months. A career-best second half for an NL Central-winning squad will equal big bucks when/if Heyward hits free agency this winter.
Cole Hamels
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What city will Cole Hamels call home after the July 31 deadline?
That's been one of the most talked-about narratives in MLB over the better part of the past year. The baseball world should finally get some clarity over the coming weeks.
The media attention, while tiring, is quite deserving. Hamels has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball since his first full season as a starter in 2007. Since that year, he has made at least 30 starts and posted a sub-3.50 ERA five different times.
He has been up and down in 2015, but he's still sporting a 3.63 ERA. He's also improved his strikeout rate to a 25.1 percent mark and his ground-ball rate to nearly 50 percent.
Of course, a potential Hamels blockbuster isn't predicated on production alone. He's owed $70.5 million over the next three seasons, and that total can climb to more than $90 million because of his 2019 option year—which is likely to be picked up in any deal.
The money and Hamels' consistency have made for polarizing opinions regarding his value. But Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has reported that the Phillies have seemed more likely to lower their once-astronomical demands as the deadline approaches:
"While one AL executive suggested a week ago that the Phillies haven't yet "bent" on their Hamels demands since Andy MacPhail joined their front office to lead them, two other executives, using similar terminology, now say the Phillies have seemed somewhat more "reasonable" in their recent trade talks, and sources suggest there's word of some potential progress with at least the Dodgers and Rangers. Phillies scouts have been dispatched to check out multiple systems, including those of L.A. and Texas.
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Like Cueto, Hamels has the talent and experience to be a major weapon for any contender. If he's finally dealt before the deadline, he will change the complexion of the MLB playoff picture.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of July 18.
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