Scott Miller's Starting 9: Midseason Awards, 2nd-Half Storylines Spectacular
CINCINNATI — Break time in the majors? Why, that must mean either one of two things: free Popsicles for all or some cool midseason awards.
Sorry, but Indians manager Terry Francona already ate all of the Popsicles.
1. Midseason Biggest Surprises (Teams Division)
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American League: 1. Houston Astros, 2. Minnesota Twins, 3. New York Yankees
The Astros coughed and wheezed into the All-Star break, losing six in a row and eight of nine. Clearly, no team in the majors can use this break to regroup as much as the Astros. Losing leadoff man George Springer to a broken right wrist is not helping. But shortstop Carlos Correa is going to get better and better.
Odds of reclaiming first from the Angels? Not great, the way things are going. See, that's the thing about first-half awards: They're like sunsets. You'd better take a snapshot, because if you're not careful, the moment can pass before you catch it.
Nobody in Minnesota will soon forget the Twins' amazing seven-run ninth inning on Friday night that catapulted them to a shocking 8-6 win over the Tigers. That game may stand as the beginning of Detroit's descent and the start of the Twins' ascent. Minnesota has had several moments this season where things could have gone either way, and the Twins held it together. That's how you surprise people. And usually, second baseman Brian Dozier is involved.
Odds of the Yankees' owning first place in the AL East at the break were roughly the equivalent of Donald Trump taking a vow of silence. Now, let the debates begin: Can Alex Rodriguez stay healthy and productive? Will the Yanks add pitching before the trade deadline? And Trump…ah, forget it.
National League: 1. St. Louis Cardinals, 2. Arizona Diamondbacks, 3. Nobody else
Apologies to the Senior Circuit, but it's mostly been business as usual. Surprises? Nothing close to the AL.
The Cardinals: We should never be surprised by them. But when you lose Adam Wainwright, Matt Adams and Matt Holliday and still lap the field, you've got to get your props.
The Diamondbacks have hit many of the right notes. A.J. Pollock is the best player you've barely heard of. Paul Goldschmidt reminds D-backs chief baseball officer Tony La Russa of Albert Pujols in both his work ethic and production. Ender Inciarte (currently disabled with a hamstring injury) has been a revelation, and Yasmany Tomas has progressed rapidly since the move from third base to right field. As La Russa says, the pieces are beginning to fit together nicely.
2. Midseason Biggest Flops (Teams Division)
AL: 1. Boston Red Sox, 2. Detroit Tigers, 3. Seattle Mariners
There are more misses than hits in the AL this year. You can add the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians and Oakland A's to the list, too.
The Red Sox missed on Jon Lester in last winter's free-agent market, then missed badly on putting together a rotation built on endurance rather than dominance. Rick Porcello? Justin Masterson? Wade Miley? Ahem. Crazy thing is, in a Greek-yogurt-soft AL East, the Sox remain within striking distance. In last place at the moment, yes. But within striking distance.
The Tigers, whose annual bullpen difficulties are as traditional as the Olde English D on their caps, are getting a high-def look at what life will be like without Miguel Cabrera. Hint: Not pretty.
The Mariners should be No. 1 on the list, if only because certain overexuberant expectations (ahem, I was among them) had them contending for a World Series spot.
NL: 1. San Diego Padres, 2. Milwaukee Brewers, 3. Philadelphia Phillies
Matt Kemp was the poster boy for change last winter in San Diego. He also was the one who dubbed A.J. Preller as the "rock star" general manager. Right about now, together, the noises they're making sound like a broken-down jalopy. Look for Preller to mix it up again in the trade market, but don't expect a fire sale. The Padres, still desperately needing to build trust with their fans, are expected to be both buyers and sellers as they look to rearrange parts. One name who could surprise on the trade market: James Shields.
The Brewers buried themselves early and fired manager Ron Roenicke, and now the buzz is that Doug Melvin is about to move upstairs, creating an opening for general manager in Milwaukee.
As for the Phillies, as one scout said Sunday at the Futures Game: "They've got to trade people this month, don't they?" Who knows what the Phillies are doing, other than wallowing around with the game's worst record.
3. Midseason MVPs
AL: 1. Mike Trout, Angels. 2. Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays, 3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Quite simply, there is no better player in the league than Trout. He leads the AL in total bases, home runs, slugging percentage and runs scored. As he has since day one, he wins games with his bat, legs, glove, arms, head…you name it.
Donaldson has helped position Toronto to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993. Now, can GM Alex Anthopoulos get him and the rest of the Jays' Murderers' Row some pitching?
That Cabrera leads the AL in on-base percentage (.456) and batting average (.350) only emphasizes how much the Tigers are missing him. Totally different team.
NL: 1. Bryce Harper, Nationals, 2. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks, 3. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
So this is what Harper can do when he stays on the field. Yep, he and I discussed it back in March.
And heads up: If Harper falters in the least, Goldschmidt is poised to win this thing. He ranks second to the Washington slugger in OPS and slugging percentage and is as dangerous with the bat as anybody. Biggest thing holding him back will be Arizona's lower-division standing.
Stanton, meanwhile, not only is missed in the Marlins lineup but will be sorely missed in Monday night's Home Run Derby.
4. Midseason Cy Youngs
AL: 1. Dallas Keuchel, Astros, 2. Chris Sale, White Sox, 3. Sonny Gray, Athletics
Cannot wait to see how this shakes out in the final three months of the season. I totally agree with what ESPN.com guru Jayson Stark wrote in his excellent midseason awards column regarding the AL Cy Young race: "I don't know how anyone can fairly separate Keuchel, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray and Chris Sale. Gray has the best ERA. Sale has the best WHIP and strikeout ratio. Archer has the most starts allowing one earned run or none. Keuchel leads them all in wins above replacement. There's not a wrong answer in the bunch."
So how did Stark do it? The old-fashioned way: A scout advised him to go back to the importance of games and that "I always feel like the biggest awards should go to guys on winning teams."
Bingo. Remove Keuchel from the Astros rotation, and Houston plummets far off the AL West pace. Remove Gray and Sale, and the A's and White Sox are still last-place clubs. Archer? He falls into the Keuchel category with Tampa Bay, but Keuchel's numbers are better.
NL: 1. Max Scherzer, Nationals. 2. Zack Greinke, Dodgers, 3. Johnny Cueto, Reds
If ever a pitcher was worth $210 million, it is Scherzer. (Long pause while I go get drug-tested for typing that sentence. OK, I'm back, and I stand by that sentence.) Over two starts on June 14 and 20—the latter his no-hitter against the Pirates—Scherzer allowed just three of 57 batters to reach base. Three. According to Elias Sports Bureau, he is only the fifth modern pitcher—and first since Jim Tobin of the Boston Braves in 1944 to allow one hit or fewer in back-to-back complete games. And his walk-less streak Sunday reached 40.1 consecutive innings. He hasn't surrendered a walk since June 14.
Greinke leads the majors with a 1.39 ERA—but his 0.84 WHIP is second to Scherzer's 0.78 (though colleague Danny Knobler thinks Greinke edges Scherzer in the Cy race right now). And Cueto is right behind at 0.90.
5. Midseason Biggest Surprises (Players Division)
AL: 1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, 2. Prince Fielder, Rangers, 3. Jose Iglesias, Tigers
Leave it to A-Rod to come back from the dead like Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction. Be alert, though, for boiled bunnies. Prince, happily, is showing there is life after neck surgery. And we all knew Iglesias was a whiz with the glove, but the guy is swinging a good stick this year, batting .314.
NL: 1. Dee Gordon, Marlins, 2. DJ LeMahieu, Rockies, 3. Matt Duffy, Giants
No offense to Gordon, but part of the reason the Dodgers shipped him away is because they thought he peaked last year. What a shame that he hurt his thumb and has to miss the All-Star Game.
Speaking of which, LeMahieu is starting the All-Star Game, which means, outside of Denver, it will be the first time most people ever see him play. He ranks eighth in the NL with a .311 batting average and plays a mean second base.
And more quickly than you can say "Joe Panik" for a surprise player in San Francisco, Matt Duffy springs to mind. Score another major coup for San Francisco's drafting and development. The hits just keep on coming.
6. Hot Second-Half Storylines
• With Cabrera out, is this the Tigers' last gasp?
• Do the Royals deal for an outfielder with Alex Gordon expected to miss most of the second half with a groin injury? Or do they stay with Plan A and acquire pitching? They've been heavily scouting the Reds' Cueto and Mike Leake, among others.
• Some names to keep in mind as the Angels search for a general manager to replace Jerry Dipoto: Kevin Towers, the former Padres and Diamondbacks GM who has the ability to get along with everybody. Jim Hendry, the former Cubs GM and current special assistant to Yankees GM Brian Cashman. Larry Beinfest, the former Marlins' GM. If he could work with Miami owner Jeffrey Loria for several years, he can work for Angels owner Arte Moreno and manager Mike Scioscia. Beinfest prefers to stay out of the spotlight, anyway. Another former GM who lives in the Anaheim area: Jim Bowden, who once ran the Reds and now works for ESPN and MLB Network Radio.
• Prediction: The Phillies wind up dealing Cole Hamels to the Dodgers. But who is running the show—current GM Ruben Amaro Jr., acting president Pat Gillick, incoming president Andy MacPhail—will be the game's best drama in the coming weeks.
• Speaking of which, whenever the Phillies get around to replacing Amaro Jr., MacPhail will have plenty of good names from which to choose. Dipoto, who just resigned from the Angels, is a perfect fit. Jim Duquette, the former Mets GM and current MLB Network Radio host on SiriusXM, could get back into it. And Matt Klentak, the Angels' assistant GM, who was hired by Dipoto and worked with MacPhail on the last labor agreement. MacPhail was the Orioles' team president at the time, and Klentak was working in MLB's Labor Relations Department.
• What happens with the Blue Jays? They can end their playoff drought if they get some pitching, but will they do it? They need at least one starter and one reliever, preferably a closer. It's time for ownership to show the players that it wants to win.
• Can rookie manager Paul Molitor's impressive attention to detail help guide the Twins into the playoffs?
• The Padres' managerial search likely will not occur until the winter, when they will remove interim skipper Pat Murphy (barring a shocking second-half run). But one man to keep in mind currently is working as an assistant to Preller: former outfielder Moises Alou, who was the general manager for the Dominican team for the 2013 World Baseball Classic.
• Will the Mets acquire a bat to aid their young pitching staff? GM Sandy Alderson indicated a couple of weeks ago he was prepared to "overpay" for one. Who? Joel Sherman of the New York Post identified him as Oakland's Ben Zobrist.
7. Weekly Power Rankings
1. Futures Game: A hot Cubs prospect won MVP on Sunday. No, not Kris Bryant. No, not Addison Russell. Kyle Schwarber. Cubs: loaded.
2. Pete Rose: You bet there is every chance his appearance Tuesday will overshadow the All-Star Game itself. Whoops.
3. Scherzer and Greinke: This year's NL Cy Young race is lining up as a duel between last winter's hottest free agent and this winter's hottest free agent (yes, Greinke is expected to opt out of his Dodgers deal this winter).
4. Donald Trump: Dream baseball-management combo: Trump as GM, Ozzie Guillen as manager.
5. Home Run Derby: All hail the kids: Cubs rookie Kris Bryant and Dodgers rookie Joc Pederson will take aim at the Ohio River on Monday night. Then they'll take aim at the All-Star Game's MVP award on Tuesday.
8. Click "Like," Turn on TV
So here's something that wasn't happening back when Rose and Hank Aaron were All-Stars: Facebook's data team studied the overall conversation on the Facebook platform during the same dates as MLB's All-Star voting, April 29-July 2, and, based on which players had the most mentions in Facebook conversations, produced these All-Stars (courtesy of Facebook):
American League
- Catcher: Salvador Perez, Royals
- First base: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
- Second base: Jose Altuve, Astros
- Shortstop: Jose Reyes, Blue Jays
- Third base: Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays
- Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels; Torii Hunter, Twins; Carlos Beltran, Yankees
- Designated hitter: Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
National League
- Catcher: Buster Posey, Giants
- First base: Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers
- Second base: Brandon Phillips, Reds
- Shortstop: Brandon Crawford, Giants
- Third base: David Wright, Mets
- Outfield: Bryce Harper, Nationals; Andrew McCutchen, Pirates; Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
9. Phillies Phailings
How the first half ended in Philadelphia:
9a. Rock 'n' Roll Lyric of the Week
"I rounded first, never thought of the worst
As I studied the shortstop's position
Crack went my leg, like the shell of an egg
Someone call a decent physician
I'm no Pete Rose, I can't pretend
Though my mind is quite flexible
These brittle bones don't bend"
—Jimmy Buffett, "Growing Older (But Not Up)"
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball.
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