Updating the Top 100 MLB Players at 2015's Midseason
Coming into the 2015 Major League Baseball season, we had a notion of who the best players in the game were. But now that we're midway through the season, that notion no longer applies.
What it needs is an update. And when that update is going to happen is right...now.
Speaking more specifically, we're here to provide an updated list of the top 100 players in baseball. To do so, we're going to need a few ground rules:
- What's happening in 2015 matters the most.
- But we're not going to completely ignore track records. In most cases, players who have track records are going to take precedence over players without them.
- And yet, a good track record doesn't mean automatic inclusion into the list. To be included, a player must be having a good season.
As for how the players were ranked, we used wins above replacement figures from both Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs as the starting point. After that, the ranking process involved looking at what guys are doing now and at what they've done in the past and then asking "Who would I rather have?" 100 times. Not very scientific, but reasonably effective.
The setup will be 10 players to a slide from player No. 100 through player No. 21, and then one player per slide for the top 20. If you'll follow me this way, we can get started.
A Note on Stats and Links, and Some Honorable Mentions
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Because this is a ranking of baseball players, you're naturally about to see plenty of statistics.
But one important word of warning is that because your humble narrator is writing this on Thursday, July 9, all the figures and statistical observations within are current through play on Wednesday, July 8, and thus...I'm going to cue the bold here...a day short of being fully up to date.
Also, here's a heads-up that you're going to come across plenty of links. These will take you to places like Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant and MLB Farm, and are there to keep the number of stats in the discussion to a minimum. If you want the exact numbers (or, in some cases, illustrations) being referenced, all you have to do is follow the links.
Now, just one last thing before we get going. Here are some shout-outs to players who were seriously considered but didn't make the cut for various reasons:
- Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
- Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
- Jacoby Ellsbury, New York Yankees
- Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
- Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
- Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers
- Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays
- James Shields, San Diego Padres
- Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins
- Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
- Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels
- Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
- Jose Iglesias, Detroit Tigers
- Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
- Trevor Plouffe, Minnesota Twins
- John Lackey, St. Louis Cardinals
OK, then. Let's get on with it.
100-91: Gallardo-Puig
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100. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Texas Rangers: Gallardo's improvement from a 3.51 ERA last year to a 2.67 ERA this year is hard to believe at first, especially given that he's gotten worse in the strikeout-to-walk department. But his increasing reliance on his sinker and slider has turned him into a ground-ball pitcher, and his hard-hit rate is well below his career norm.
99. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Baltimore Orioles: Jimenez has pulled a complete 180 from where he was in 2014, and it passes the smell test. His much-improved walk rate traces back to a much-improved zone percentage, and he's doing fine with strikeouts and at inducing ground balls and soft contact. Hence, a 2.96 ERA.
98. Matt Duffy, 3B, San Francisco Giants: Duffy has gone from non-prospect to star regular in a hurry, and it's surprisingly believable. His .777 OPS comes from an all-fields approach that doesn't feature much soft contact. Also, the early return on his defense at third base is that he can really pick it. Pablo Sandoval, you are not missed.
97. Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians: Don't judge Carrasco by his 4.17 ERA. A better measure of his nastiness is the 2.83 FIP that ranks in the top 10 in the American League. His thing is using good command and overpowering stuff to crush the K/BB department, and that's been going on for a year now. His only flaw, really, is that he struggles to limit hard contact.
96. Brock Holt, UTIL, Boston Red Sox: Holt is known for his Ben Zobrist-like ability to play good defense all over, and deservedly so. But don't underestimate his bat. He's had two excellent halves out of three since last season, and this season has seen him become even more of a line-drive machine who now hits lefties well.
95. Ben Zobrist, UTIL, Oakland A's: Before there was Holt, there was Zobrist. And though he's not lighting up the WAR department like he usually does, that's due to poor defensive ratings that must be taken with a grain of salt. Apart from that, he's still a quality offensive player with more walks than strikeouts and an above-average .760 OPS.
94. Kevin Kiermaier, CF, Tampa Bay Rays: With his incredible defense in center field, Kiermaier's main claim to fame this year is that he's been arguably MLB's best defensive player. Apart from that, he's been halfway decent on offense with a .707 OPS and nine stolen bases. WAR overrates him a bit, but he's a darn good player.
93. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves: Yes, Simmons is here mainly for his defense, which still looks like the work of Industrial Light and Magic and still places him among the game's best defenders, period. But by cutting down on his strikeouts and fly balls, he's upped his OPS from .617 to .654 and positioned himself for further improvement.
92. Tyson Ross, SP, San Diego Padres: Ross' 3.56 ERA doesn't jump off the page, and he hasn't helped himself by walking the ballpark. But with one of the National League's top five strikeout rates and the league's second-best ground-ball rate, his 2.97 FIP confirms he hasn't taken that big a step back from last year's 2.81 ERA.
91. Yasiel Puig, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Puig is lacking in playing time and dingers this year but nothing else. He's hitting .272 with a .784 OPS in 39 games while continuing to improve his walk and strikeout balance and upping his line-drive rate to a career high. He's still among the game's best hitting right fielders, like it or not.
90-81: Davis-Buchholz
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90. Wade Davis, RP, Kansas City Royals: Davis' 0.24 ERA is by far the lowest among relievers this year, and he's also the reliever leader in ERA dating back to 2014. He's not whiffing batters like he did last year, but a rate of 10 strikeouts per nine innings is still excellent. There may also be no pitcher harder to square up, as he boasts a laughably low hard-hit rate.
89. Dellin Betances, RP, New York Yankees: After leading relievers in FIP-based WAR last year, Betances is at it again in 2015. He may be walking more batters, but he's also striking out more batters and racking up more soft contact than any other reliever. It's all resulted in a 1.61 ERA, and even that doesn't do him justice.
88. Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants: After a down 2014, Belt is back to being an underrated hitter in 2015. He's one of the league's top offensive first basemen with a .271 average and an .812 OPS, and his elite hard-hit rate says he deserves even better. And once again, Belt is also playing some Grade-A defense at first base.
87. Curtis Granderson, RF, New York Mets: Granderson belongs in the "Better Than You Think" file. He's gotten a lot better at balancing walks and strikeouts since switching New York threads and is following up a .714 OPS and 20 homers last year with a .767 OPS and 13 homers this year. Also, the metrics think he has a much better handle on right field in 2015.
86. Jason Hammel, SP, Chicago Cubs: The north side of Chicago agrees with Hammel. He has a 2.86 ERA with the Cubs this year and a 2.92 ERA in 34 starts for them dating back to last year. Getting it done for him this year is one of the NL's top-five K/BB ratios and some improvements in the contact management department.
85. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox: Pedroia has rebounded from two modest offensive seasons to hit .306 with an .819 OPS and nine homers, two more than he hit in all of 2014. He's back among the league's top offensive second basemen, and we should defer to his track record regarding the metrics' poor opinion of his defense.
84. Michael Pineda, SP, New York Yankees: Pineda's 3.79 ERA is solid, but it doesn't do him justice. He has the AL's top K/BB rate, and that's a big reason why he has a top-five FIP at 2.57. He also has little trouble getting ground balls. The only thing holding him back is his .347 BABIP, which is much higher than he deserves.
83. Michael Brantley, LF, Cleveland Indians: Brantley has been slumping since mid-May, but he's still hitting .291 with a .791 OPS despite that. He's the best there is at balancing walks and strikeouts, and he still has the kind of batted-ball profile that should support a healthy batting average. Though not the elite player he was in 2014, he's still good.
82. Scott Kazmir, SP, Oakland A's: With a 2.49 ERA, Kazmir is making it two excellent first halves in a row. Beyond upping his strikeouts, the trick for him this year includes limiting hard contact with the best of the best in MLB. If not for his flimsy health and weakened walk rate, he'd rank a lot higher.
81. Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox: Buchholz doesn't have a trustworthy track record, but his 3.27 ERA undersells how good he's been this year. He's one of the AL's top three pitchers in FIP. That's the result of his being in complete control of a five-pitch mix, allowing him to explore new heights in the K/BB department and contact management.
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80-71: Moustakas-Molina
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80. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals: Moustakas has gone from hitting in the low .200s to batting .301 with a .793 OPS. That's the result of his embracing the hitting for average lifestyle, as he's continuing to cut down on his strikeouts while spraying the ball all over the field. As a bonus, his typically strong defense has been very strong in 2015.
79. Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners: Seager has been in a bad slump for over a month, and as a result he's only hitting .251 with a .728 OPS and 12 homers. But he's actually made improvements as a hitter this year, such as dropping his strikeout rate and becoming a threat against left-handed pitching. He's also still an asset defensively.
78. Jhonny Peralta, SS, St. Louis Cardinals: Ho hum. Peralta is following up his .779 OPS and 21 homers last year with an .815 OPS and 12 homers this year, making him one of the league's elite offensive shortstops. And though the metrics haven't continued their fluky love affair with his defense, he's still rating as a solid defender.
77. Matt Holliday, LF, St. Louis Cardinals: Holliday may be disappointing in the power department with only three homers, but it's hard to complain about a .303 average and .839 OPS. He's never been better about taking his walks, and he's hitting line drives like never before. He's still a great hitter, especially if you focus on the last 365 days.
76. Ryan Braun, RF, Milwaukee Brewers: After some down times, Braun has looked much more Braun-like this year. He has an .827 OPS and 15 homers and probably deserves better knowing that he's crushing it in the exit-velocity department. Add in 12 steals and somewhat improved defense in right field, and he's looking good again.
75. Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets: With a 3.11 ERA and merely decent peripherals, Harvey isn't blowing us away like he did in 2013. But his stuff and command still put him among the NL's K/BB masters, and he's also among the NL elite at inducing soft contact. So, his seemingly modest comeback is actually going really well.
74. Alex Rodriguez, DH, New York Yankees: Well, certainly nobody expected A-Rod to come back from his 2014 suspension and do this. He has an OPS of .880 with 16 home runs, making him one of the AL's top 10 hitters. And the amazing part is that he probably deserves even better, as he's among the best of the best at not hitting the ball softly.
73. A.J. Burnett, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Burnett has lowered his ERA from 4.59 to 1.99 in 2015, a mark topped only by Zack Greinke. And this is not surprising, as the Pirates have gotten his walk rate and his ground-ball habit back on track. One red flag, however, is that Burnett's exit velocity says he's been hit a lot harder than his ERA suggests.
72. Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs: Lester has seen his K/BB ratio go from excellent to merely very good this year, and too many pitches in the middle of the zone haven't helped his batted-ball profile. But with a 2.76 ERA since May 1, the incredible run he's been on since mid-2013 hasn't died just yet.
71. Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals: Molina's .699 OPS says he's continuing last year's offensive decline, but the hot streak he's been on recently says his bat isn't prepared to go quietly. And even if his bat is going south, he still offers the elite throwing arm and strike-framing that he's known for.
70-61: Cruz-Teixeira
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70. Nelson Cruz, DH/RF, Seattle Mariners: Similar to 2014, Cruz has cooled down after a red-hot start to the season. But with a .300 average, a .913 OPS and 21 homers, he's still among MLB's 10 best hitters. Stretch the sample size back to the start of 2014, and he's still within the top 15. Now, if only he could do something besides just hit.
69. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: We're continuing to watch Longoria's power trend downhill, but he's still an above-average hitter with a .278 average and .772 OPS. He now seems committed to the line-drive lifestyle and is also spreading the ball around more than usual. Meanwhile, he still plays a mean third base.
68. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox: Abreu isn't lighting it up like he did in his explosive rookie season, but a .294 average, an .837 OPS and 14 dingers are still really good numbers. This performance has allowed him to keep his place as one of the game's 10 best hitters over the last calendar year, and he's made some strides defensively to boot.
67. Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: Martinez has taken his immense talent and translated it into a 2.70 ERA. The development of one of the game's elite changeups has helped place him among the NL's elite in strikeout rate and ground-ball rate. If he finds a way to cut down on his walk rate, watch out.
66. Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: Wacha is making good on the promise of his rookie season in 2013 with a 2.93 ERA, and he's a legitimately better pitcher now than he was then. He's combining his excellent command with a more diverse pitch mix to manage contact well, placing in the top 25 in MLB in average exit velocity.
65. Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals: Wong is making good on the flashes of potential he showed in 2014, hitting .282 with a .782 OPS, nine dingers and eight stolen bases. He's among the NL's most well-rounded offensive second basemen, and the metrics probably undersell how good he's been defensively.
64. Justin Upton, LF, San Diego Padres: Upton hasn't been as dangerous at the plate as he was in 2014, but he's still been effective with a .772 OPS and 14 home runs. He's also swiped 16 bases in 17 tries. The total package makes him one of MLB's top offensive left fielders, and one of the metrics thinks he's also playing elite defense out there.
63. Joe Panik, 2B, San Francisco Giants: Not on the Panik bandwagon yet? You should be. He's hitting .306 with an .813 OPS this year and is also holding his own at second base with above-average defense. Factor in how good he was down the stretch in 2014, and he's easily one of MLB's top five second basemen over the last calendar year.
62. Brandon Crawford, SS, San Francisco Giants: Crawford is still an elite defensive shortstop but is more than that now thanks to his offensive surge. His .792 OPS and career-high 12 homers put him among the most dangerous hitters at the position, and those figures are products mainly of increased hard contact and his ongoing domination of lefties.
61. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees: Teixeira has made a huge comeback, recording an OPS of .902 with 22 home runs. He's putting the ball in play like his old self, and he's one of the AL's most efficient hitters in terms of making sure his fly balls go over the fence. It would also appear that his days as a quality defender at first base aren't behind him yet.
60-51: Zimmermann-Liriano
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60. Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Washington Nationals: Zimmermann's ERA has gone backward from 2.66 last year to 3.04 this year, and a drop in K/BB ratio is partially to blame for that. But he still has elite command, and he's actually been better at managing contact this year. His numbers may not jump off the page, but he's still really good.
59. Prince Fielder, DH, Texas Rangers: So much for the idea of Fielder's season-ending neck injury in 2014 dooming his career. He's come back to hit .345 with a .934 OPS, numbers that place him among MLB's top 10 hitters. He's putting the ball in play better than ever and producing tremendous exit velocity when he does.
58. Stephen Vogt, C, Oakland Athletics: Vogt is the AL's best offensive catcher with a .287 average, .868 OPS and 13 home runs. He is where he is partially because of a notable improvement against left-handed pitching, and because he's a line-drive hitter who doesn't do soft contact. Now, if only he was a better receiver behind the dish.
57. Lance Lynn, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: Lynn broke through with a 2.74 ERA last year and is doing even better with a 2.53 ERA this year. He's placed himself among the NL's top 10 strikeout artists and in the top 12 of MLB in average exit velocity. For a guy who basically only throws low-90s fastballs, he's surprisingly overpowering.
56. Yoenis Cespedes, LF, Detroit Tigers: With a .291 average, an .806 OPS and 12 homers, Cespedes is in the middle of his best offensive season since his rookie year in 2012. His secret is some of the best exit velocity you're going to find. And though his left field defense can be inconsistent in the eye test, the metrics are once again loving it.
55. Yasmani Grandal, C, Los Angeles Dodgers: Grandal was an overlooked gem in San Diego last year, but it's impossible to ignore him now. His .915 OPS and 14 dingers make him the top offensive catcher in MLB this year. That's not his only trick, though, as he also rates as the best strike-framer in the business this year.
54. Mookie Betts, CF, Boston Red Sox: There have been some growing pains, but Betts' 2015 is a worthy follow-up to his breakthrough in 2014. He has a .780 OPS, nine homers and 13 steals, making him one of the AL's more well-rounded offensive center fielders. He's also played quality defense out there, making him the total package.
53. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros: The AL's reigning batting champion isn't as hot this year with "just" a .299 average and a .758 OPS. But that's still above-average stuff born out of one of MLB's best contact habits, and Altuve is still a baserunning threat with an AL-high 25 steals. As a bonus, he's showing great improvement on defense.
52. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: Hamels has gone from a 2.46 ERA to a 3.02 ERA, but don't let that trick you into thinking he's gotten worse. His K/BB ratio has actually gotten slightly better, and among NL pitchers he's looking up at only Francisco Liriano in soft-contact percentage. So, anybody want to trade for him?
51. Francisco Liriano, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Liriano is working on a 2.99 ERA and arguably deserves even better with the way he's pitching. He's made a drastic improvement in the K/BB department and is still among the NL elite at getting ground balls. Even better, he's far and away the best in MLB at inducing soft contact.
50-41: Heyward-Marte
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50. Jason Heyward, RF, St. Louis Cardinals: Heyward has come on very strong after a slow start to the season, to a point where he now has quality offensive numbers with a .753 OPS, nine homers and nine steals. He's one of the NL's top offensive threats in right field, and he can still light it up with the best of 'em on defense.
49. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: After an injury-marred 2014, Votto is looking like his old self with an .881 OPS and 15 homers. He ranks among the NL's 12 best hitters, with lots of walks and very little soft contact being the two keys to his success. His turnaround has also occurred on defense, where he's once again looking great at first base.
48. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: We're watching Pujols turn back the clock, as his .891 OPS and AL-best 26 home runs are reminiscent of the good old days. He's one of the 15 best hitters in MLB, mainly because he's balancing contact and power like nobody else. Also, he's showing he can still handle quality defense at first base.
47. Dee Gordon, 2B, Miami Marlins: Gordon slumped to the end of 2014, but he's making it two solid first halves in a row with his .333 average and .764 OPS. He's not hitting the ball in the air as much, allowing him to make better use of his speed. This is not to mention his 30 steals and what looks like much-improved defense at second base.
46. George Springer, RF, Houston Astros: Springer's explosive breakthrough in 2014 was a legit tease of what would come, as he's now OPS'ing .822 with 13 homers and 14 stolen bases. He's one of the AL's top 15 overall offensive threats, and he's also showing he can play decent, if not quite great, defense in right field.
45. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves: Freeman is having yet another excellent offensive season with a .299 average and an .887 OPS, figures that make him one of the NL's top 10 hitters. And he might deserve better with the way he's making hard contact. Meanwhile, he still has the look of a competent, if not elite, defender at first.
44. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers: Gonzalez is still on the tear that began in the second half of 2014, batting .290 with an .884 OPS and 16 home runs. He ranks among the NL's 10 best hitters this year and among the 10 best hitters in MLB over the last calendar year. In the meantime, he's also still a plus defender at first base.
43. Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore Orioles: Jones is doing his usual thing with a .284 average, .801 OPS and 11 homers, but that may be his building to something even better with the way his strikeout rate has gone down this year. In the meantime, this is the second year in a row that the metrics have put his defense in line with his Gold Glove reputation.
42. Shelby Miller, SP, Atlanta Braves: Miller has found himself with the Braves, posting a 2.07 ERA that checks in among the best in baseball. His K/BB ratio testifies that he's not overpowering hitters, but a more diverse pitch mix has helped him become one of the league's top contact managers. Just see where he ranks in exit velocity.
41. Starling Marte, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: With a .281 average, a .788 OPS, 13 homers and 16 steals, Marte remains one of the more unheralded offensive weapons in the game. In fact, he's one of the league's top 15 hitters over the last 365 days. Add in elite defense in left field, and you get a player who deserves more recognition.
40-31: Bryant-Pollock
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40. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs: Amazingly, Bryant has lived up to the hype. He's OPS'ing .859 with 12 homers and eight steals, making him one of the NL's elite offensive threats. And with the NL's highest fly-ball rate, there may be even more power to come. As a bonus, he's also playing a solid third base.
39. J.D. Martinez, RF, Detroit Tigers: Martinez was one of the most productive hitters in MLB last year. He's doing it all over again this year with a .291 average, a .922 OPS and 24 home runs that come mainly from his ability to clobber the ball with the best of 'em. And he's not a one-trick pony, as he can also play some good right field defense.
38. Justin Turner, UTIL, Los Angeles Dodgers: It's no longer possible to ignore Turner. He's hitting .310 with a .929 OPS this year, figures that make him one of MLB's five most dangerous hitters. And no, the picture doesn't change if you go back to the beginning of 2014. To boot, he's played quality defense at several positions.
37. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants: Bumgarner isn't following up his awesome 2014 season with an even better one in 2015, as his ERA has grown from 2.98 to 3.34 in part because he's been a bit easier to square up. On the bright side, his K/BB ratio has never been better, and he's still one of the NL's great innings eaters.
36. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: Both Tulowitzki's approach at the dish and his defense seem to have taken a big step back this year, but don't you even think about a decline. He's been red-hot for over a month, and in general his .318 average and .835 OPS are the result of one of the NL's highest hard-hit rates.
35. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds: Cueto's ERA going from 2.25 to 2.61 isn't fluky, as he's being hit a bit harder this year than he was in 2014. That's still a really good ERA, though, and it's backed up by an improved K/BB ratio that places him among the NL's elite in that category. In the end, this should be yet another sub-3.00 ERA season.
34. Jose Bautista, RF, Toronto Blue Jays: Bautista's hitting has dipped a bit from where it was last year, but he's still one of the AL's elite with an .883 OPS and 17 homers. As per usual, he's drawing a ton of walks and hitting the ball really hard. And though he really should be losing a step at age 34, he continues to play a good right field.
33. Brett Gardner, LF, New York Yankees: Gardner's turn from a pesky speed guy to a well-rounded offensive threat is complete. He's OPS'ing .856 with nine homers and 15 steals, making him one of the AL's top 10 offensive players. That's life when you're fast and don't make much soft contact, and Gardner still rates as a competent outfielder too.
32. Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: Archer has made the leap from good pitcher to great pitcher, as he has a 2.74 ERA that undersells how good he's been. He's among MLB's elite in strikeout rate and the AL's elite in soft-hit rate. Apparently, this is life when you have improved fastball command and maybe the game's most lethal slider.
31. A.J. Pollock, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Pollock teased a breakthrough in an injury-marred 2014, and it's come true in 2015. He's hitting .304 with an .817 OPS, 11 homers and 18 steals, putting him among the NL's most dangerous offensive center fielders. He's also an elite defender out there, making him arguably the best player nobody knows.
30-21: Dozier-Cain
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30. Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins: After taking a step toward stardom in 2014, Dozier has arrived in 2015. He's OPS'ing .851 with 18 homers and nine steals, making him the second-most dangerous offensive second baseman in MLB. He's proof that a pull-happy, line-drive-oriented approach can work, and he's also halfway decent on defense.
29. Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets: So much for a sophomore slump. With an even better K/BB ratio and improved contact management, deGrom is following up last year's 2.69 ERA with a 2.14 ERA that ranks among MLB's best. And if you go back over the last calendar year, nobody has a better ERA than deGrom's 2.04. So, he's really good.
28. Jake Arrieta, SP, Chicago Cubs: Arrieta is showing his 2014 was no fluke, as he's following a 2.53 ERA with a 2.80 ERA that undersells his dominance. He's among the NL elite in K/BB ratio and among the best in MLB in the exit velocity department. More so than his ERA lets on, he belongs among MLB's most overpowering starters.
27. Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals: We won't be seeing Gordon for a while, and that's sad. But there's nothing sad about his 2015 performance, as he's been arguably the league's top hitter in left field with an .852 OPS and 11 homers. And knowing his track record, the metrics are likely underrating his defense.
26. Russell Martin, C, Toronto Blue Jays: After having one of his best offensive seasons in 2014, Martin hasn't fallen far off the pace with an .802 OPS and 12 homers this year. He's one of the AL's top hitting catchers. Then there's how he's elite at controlling the running game, and he's also one of the game's best strike-framers.
25. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Cole has taken a strong finish to 2014 and ridden it right into 2015 with a 2.28 ERA that checks in among MLB's best. He has a personal-best K/BB ratio working for him, as well as his best ground-ball percentage and one of the NL's best soft-hit rates. We're witnessing a budding ace turn into an ace.
24. Joc Pederson, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Pederson may only be a .231 hitter, but it's not by accident that he has an .860 OPS and 20 homers. He's proving in his rookie season that he has the eye to draw walks with the best of 'em, and that any contact he makes is likely to be loud. He's also a quality center fielder, making him the whole package.
23. David Price, SP, Detroit Tigers: Death, taxes and Price eating a ton of innings with a low ERA. He's at it again with a 2.54 ERA while ranking in the top 10 in innings, mainly thanks to one of the AL's elite K/BB ratios. The one red flag, however, is that his contact-management skills have been iffy at best this season.
22. Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland A's: Gray teased potential greatness in 2013 and 2014 and has achieved it so far in 2015 with a 2.20 ERA that ranks him among the league's best. This is partially because of his best K/BB ratio yet but more so his ability to get ground balls and, especially, stifle hard contact. Few are better at the latter than he is.
21. Lorenzo Cain, CF, Kansas City Royals: Cain's coming-out party in 2014 went under the radar, so he's going bigger and louder in 2015. His .312 average, .849 OPS, seven homers and 16 steals make him an elite offensive center fielder. Then there's his defense, which is also elite. He's one of the game's best players, and it's no longer a secret.
20. Todd Frazier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
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Todd Frazier had some good seasons in 2012 and 2013, but he seemed to really be on his way to superstardom early last year. He hit .290 with an .853 OPS and 19 homers in the first half, production that earned him a spot as one of the top players in the majors.
When his second-half slump came, that hot first half looked like a flash in the pan. But now here he is in 2015, doing it all over again. Except, even better.
Frazier is off to a stupendous start with a .281 average, a .928 OPS and 25 home runs through 81 games, production that places him among MLB's 10 best hitters. Factor in his eight stolen bases, and he rates even better as an all-around offensive producer.
For Frazier, a big difference-maker has been his decrease in strikeouts. Aside from that, he's making hard contact at the best rate of his career with a 40.0 hard-hit percentage, which also ranks among baseball's best.
In addition to his awesome offense, Frazier is also carrying on as a quality defender at the hot corner. It all makes for an impressive total package. And because it's not necessarily coming out of the blue, it's one we have to take seriously.
19. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
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Jason Kipnis endured a lost season in 2014, but let's not forget that he was a great player before that happened. In 2013, he posted an .818 OPS with 17 jacks and 30 steals, making him one of the more effective second basemen in the business.
And at this particular moment, he's unquestionably the best second baseman in the business.
Kipnis has played like a man on a mission in 2015, hitting .335 with a .914 OPS, six home runs and 10 steals through 83 games. He ranks among the game's best hitters and most dangerous overall offensive threats.
The differences for Kipnis? There are many.
For one, he's rescued his BB/K ratio. For two, he's gotten back to using the opposite field. For three, he's gotten back to hitting lefties. And in general, he's just not making a loft of soft contact.
On top of all this, Kipnis is also rating as a quality defensive second baseman. Add that to everything else, and there's simply not much he hasn't been doing this season. And lest you think it's a first-half fluke, remember that it's not necessarily anything we haven't seen before.
18. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
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Anthony Rizzo's big breakout happened last season, when the then-24-year-old Cubs first baseman hit .286 with a .913 OPS and 32 homers. By the end of the year, he was one of MLB's top 10 hitters.
That's a hard act to follow. But improbably, Rizzo has been even better in 2015.
Through 83 games, he is hitting .296 with a .954 OPS and 16 home runs. His talents include achieving a roughly equal balance between walks and strikeouts, continued improvement against left-handed pitching and an even higher hard-contact rate than the one he had last year.
The grand result is production that makes Rizzo one of MLB's top five hitters, but he'd point out there's more to him than just his hitting ability.
“I don’t ever want to be one-dimensional,” Rizzo told Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago in April. “I don’t ever want to be just a hitter. I want to do it all."
And doing it all he is. Rizzo has tacked on 12 stolen bases to his hitting production and is once again rating as a pretty good, if not quite great, defensive first baseman.
Add it all up, and you get a player who was already very good and has now become truly great.
17. Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
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Manny Machado always had the ability. He was a top-10 prospect before he entered the league in 2012, and he showed occasional excellence in 2013 and 2014.
But it's not until this year that Machado has really made good on his potential. And Manny oh Manny, has he done it in a big way.
A hit-or-miss hitter in his first three seasons, Machado is now an excellent hitter with a .301 average, an .895 OPS and 19 home runs in 85 games. These figures place him among MLB's top 15 hitters. And with his 13 stolen bases, and you get a top-15 all-around offensive force as well.
The difference for Machado? His approach has clearly improved, as he's doing much better balancing walks and strikeouts. Apart from that, he's going with more of an all-fields approach that includes a career-high hard-hit rate at 34.3.
On top of all this, Machado is still a wizard at third base. According to defensive runs saved, he's one of only six infielders to have already saved double-digit runs above average this season.
In his first three seasons, Machado's superstardom was coming along. In 2015, it's arrived.
16. Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians
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Mainly on the strength of a second-half run in which he couldn't be touched, Corey Kluber finished 2014 with a 2.44 ERA and AL-best 2.35 FIP in 235.2 innings. His prize? The AL Cy Young.
Now, it looks like Kluber has come back to earth. His ERA has risen a full run from 2.44 to 3.45, and to some extents it has been a struggle for him. With a lower Soft% and a higher Hard%, he's not managing contact as well as he did in 2014.
And yet, don't be fooled by that rise in ERA. It's not a very truthful rise.
Kluber has improved both his strikeout rate and his walk rate this year, resulting in a K/BB ratio that places within the top 10 in MLB. And starting with his 18-strikeout effort in mid-May, he's been on a roll over his last 11 starts, highlighted by a 2.57 ERA and a sterling 6.80 K/BB ratio.
Both Kluber's 2.42 FIP and his 2.59 xFIP place him among the game's top five pitchers. Those figures might be overstating how good he's been just a tad, but they are much more accurate reflections of how he's pitched in 2015 than his 3.45 ERA.
15. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
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King Felix might have had his finest season in 2014, posting an AL-best 2.14 ERA with a career-best 5.39 K/BB ratio across 236 innings. He didn't win the Cy Young, but he had a very strong case for it.
After that, it looks at first glance like Hernandez has taken a step back in 2015. The innings (110.1 of them) are there, but his ERA is just 3.02. That's good by anyone else's standards, but "meh" by his standards.
But it's also misleading. King Felix had two terrible starts in early June in which he gave up 15 earned runs in five combined innings. Take those out of the equation, and he has a 1.88 ERA in his other 15 starts. And deservedly so, at that.
Hernandez's K/BB ratio has taken a turn for the worse, but he's otherwise doing everything right. His 58.1 ground-ball percentage is tied for the fourth-highest mark in the majors. And relative to 2014, Hernandez has also improved in the Soft% and Hard% departments. He's among the AL's best in both departments.
So, don't worry about King Felix. His 2015 hasn't been as impressive as his 2014, but he's still very much an elite pitcher.
14. Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Zack Greinke's first two years in a Dodgers uniform were very much successful, as he followed a 2.63 ERA in 2013 with a 2.71 ERA in 2014. That's what they call good return on investment.
Now he is going bonkers in his third year with the Dodgers. He has his ERA all the way down to 1.48, which is the best in the majors by half a run.
For Greinke, part of the trick is a top-10 walk rate. And though his strikeout rate is down a couple ticks from where it was last year, he's handling the extra contact by collecting a lot of soft contact. He's one of the 10 best in the majors in that department.
That's a talent that FIP and xFIP aren't good at recognizing, as both think Greinke deserves considerably worse than his sub-2.00 ERA. But Baseball Prospectus has a new metric out called Deserved Run Average, which takes the complicated route to doing what it sounds like it would do. Consult that metric, and it'll tell you that Greinke's ERA is actually pretty close to what he deserves (2.04).
The short version is that Greinke's 1.48 ERA probably is too good to be true, but that it's also sending the right message: This is a pitcher who's gone from being really good to being truly outstanding.
13. Dallas Keuchel, SP, Houston Astros
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Dallas Keuchel was an underrated gem in 2014, as he rose from total afterthought to top-of-the-rotation ace with a 2.93 ERA in an even 200 innings.
It turns out that was just a tease for what Keuchel was capable of, as he's become significantly better in 2015. His ERA through 18 starts stands at 2.14, and he's racked it up over an MLB-high 130.1 innings.
Keuchel's improvement is partially owed to an increase in his strikeout rate, which has come courtesy of his slider and his changeup. Brooks Baseball puts their whiff rates right around 20 percent, giving Keuchel two legit swing-and-miss pitches to turn to when he has two strikes.
But his game is still mainly about limiting hard contact, which he does as well as anyone. His 63.7 ground-ball percentage is second in the majors, and he also ranks second in Soft% and first in Hard%.
For further proof that he's really good at managing contact, check out his exit velocity. Batted balls off him average just 85.21 mph, the third-lowest mark in the majors.
Like with Greinke, FIP and xFIP don't really mesh with Keuchel's pitching style. But DRA does, and it says that his 2.14 ERA is right where it belongs. And that he's doing this in the American League, of course, makes it that much more impressive.
12. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
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Nolan Arenado started making a name for himself as a rookie in 2013, and the buzz grew from there in 2014. He had an OPS of .828 with 18 home runs and also earned his second straight Gold Glove.
All that was good. What the young Rockies third baseman is doing now, however, boggles the mind.
Arenado is hitting .286 with a .918 OPS and 24 home runs. And before the words "Coors Field" can leave your mouth, know that Arenado has a higher OPS on the road and is, in fact, one of MLB's 15 most productive hitters away from home.
And this makes sense, as he has a hitting style that would travel. He boasts a well-below-average strikeout rate, and he has a batted-ball profile that leans toward hard contact.
As for Arenado's defense, yes, it's still elite. According to defensive runs saved, only he and Andrelton Simmons have saved as many as 15 runs above average among MLB infielders. That's good company.
So what is Arenado? If you ask Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs, he's basically a young Adrian Beltre. That's, uh, even more good company, to say the least.
11. Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox
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Chris Sale had his finest season in 2014, posting a 2.17 ERA and striking out 208 batters in only 174 innings. Had he pitched a few more of those, he might have won the Cy Young.
But right now, all that looks like a mere warm-up for his 2015 season.
Sale may "only" have a 2.80 ERA in 112.1 innings, but that doesn't come close to summarizing how mean he's been to opposing hitters. With a ratio of 11.78 strikeouts per nine innings, he has baseball's highest strikeout rate. And at 84.07 mph, he has an average exit velocity that's the lowest in the American League.
That's pure dominance, and it comes from arguably the most dominant batch of stuff in the game. This season, Sale has baseball's most whiffable fastball. As well as one of its most whiffable sliders. And one of its most whiffable changeups.
Given the damage Sale has done with these tools, he certainly deserves better than a 2.80 ERA. And in this case, FIP, xFIP and DRA are in agreement that something in the low 2.00s would suit Sale well.
It's hard to argue the idea. Especially while watching Sale pitch, as his starts are like fireworks shows crossed with rock concerts crossed with Death Star explosions.
10. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
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For much of 2014, we seemed to be watching Miguel Cabrera get continually nudged toward the twilight of his career by nagging aches and pains. But then came a red-hot September, making it possible to hope.
And right up until his leg decided to be a jerk and put him on the disabled list, this hope has been answered in 2015.
In 77 games, Cabrera has looked like his vintage self with an MLB-best .350 average, a 1.034 OPS and 15 home runs. With all this, he's thrust himself back into the discussion of the game's best hitter.
This is partially the result of Cabrera rescuing his BB/K rate from a one-year abyss and partially the result of him getting back to using the whole field. He's also just plain been crushing the ball, posting both an elite Hard% and even more elite exit velocity.
The one flaw in Cabrera's game, as always, is that hitting is all he can do. He's not much for running the bases, and his first base defense rates somewhere between "not great" and "good enough."
Still, at least he's been hitting like the old Cabrera again. That's all anyone could have asked for.
9. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
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At the time, the A's trading Donaldson was a defensible move. He had followed an awesome season in 2013 with a less awesome season in 2014, as his OPS fell from .883 to .798. And given that he was pushing 30, it was possible that the decline would continue.
But nope. As it's turned out, Donaldson isn't done being amazing.
In his first season with the Blue Jays, he has hit .302 with a .911 OPS and 21 homers in 86 games, figures that put him among the top 15 hitters in MLB. As an overall offensive force, he ranks in the top 10.
All this isn't necessarily coming from better at-bats, as Donaldson's BB/K ratio is continuing its decline from its 2013 peak. But he is doing a better job of using the whole field, and he's making hard contact at a rate that few American Leaguers can match.
In addition, anyone who's watched a highlight reel will know that Donaldson is an excellent defender. The metrics back that up. Especially defensive runs saved, which puts him behind only Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado at third base.
We've been saying it for a couple of years now, but we'll say it again: Donaldson owns.
8. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins
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Giancarlo Stanton had his best season yet in 2014, hitting .288 with a .950 OPS and slugging 37 homers with 13 steals on the side.
But when he was healthy, Stanton was toying with an even better season this year.
He is on the shelf with a hand injury at the moment, but his numbers through 74 games still jump off the page. With a .952 OPS and league-leading 27 home runs, he's been one of the elite hitters in MLB. It's in looking at how he made those numbers, however, where things get really impressive.
Stanton has taken steps back in both the walk and strikeout departments this year but not in the hard-contact department. His 49.7 Hard% is easily the best in MLB, as is his average exit velocity of 97.73 mph. Pretty much every ball he's put in play in 2015 has been a missile.
When Stanton hasn't been crushing the ball, he's been playing right field as well as almost anyone. That's the opinion of the metrics, anyway, and this is where it's worth reminding everyone that he has it tougher than most with the giant-sized right field he has to patrol at Marlins Park.
So, please hurry back, Giancarlo. All of this is sorely missed.
7. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Andrew McCutchen could have won his second straight NL MVP in 2014, as he once again put together an amazing season with a .314 average, .952 OPS, 25 homers and 18 steals.
Early in 2015, he struggled to live up to those numbers. But if you haven't looked lately, you're missing the same ol' Cutch.
In his last 56 games, McCutchen has hit a scorching .357 with a 1.050 OPS and eight home runs. It's thanks to this hot stretch that he can once again be counted among MLB's very best hitters, and he's probably only going to keep climbing the ranks as time moves on.
One way we can tell is by the fact that his walks and strikeouts are just about even over his last 56 games, a sign he's putting together very good at-bats. Plus, only four players have posted higher average exit velocities than his 93.79 mph during his hot stretch.
This leaves only two things worth being skeptical about. It appears McCutchen's hitting is over the troublesome left knee that may or may not have hindered him early on, but his baserunning might not be. He only has five steals. And though he makes the occasional great play, his center field defense is still a mystery in the eyes of the metrics.
But oh well. For the most part, Cutch looks like Cutch again. And that's saying enough.
6. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Clayton Kershaw had never been better in 2014, as the Dodgers ace blew 'em away with a 1.77 ERA and other career bests across the board on his way to winning his third Cy Young and first MVP.
After a year like that, it's hard to go anywhere other than backward. Kershaw, however, hasn't gone nearly as backward as many seem to think.
His 2.85 ERA in 123 innings is hardly bad, after all, and it undersells his excellence. Only Chris Sale is striking batters out at a higher rate, and Kershaw is also inducing a lot of weak contact. His ground-ball percentage is up over 50, and his average exit velocity of 83.95 mph is the lowest in MLB.
So, behold a familiar refrain: Kershaw deserves better than the ERA he has. DRA thinks he's at least deserving of something in the mid-2.00s, and FIP and xFIP think something more toward the low 2.00s would suit him.
The bottom line: This isn't the best we've ever seen from Kershaw, but he's still really good.
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
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Buster Posey won an MVP in 2012 and was more worthy for a second in 2014 than he got credit for. Beyond OPS'ing .854 with 22 home runs, he also rated as the game's top strike-framer.
But as good as he was last year, he might be having an even better season in 2015.
Posey is once again killing it on offense, hitting an even .300 with an .865 OPS and 14 home runs. The only catcher having a better offensive season than him is Yasmani Grandal, but Posey's performance is easier to have faith in. Beyond his track record, he has an elite BB/K ratio and is making hard contact at nearly the same rate as Grandal.
Just as impressive, however, is what Posey is doing on defense.
He's throwing out 48 percent of would-be base stealers, a downright Yadier Molina-like rate. He's also once again rating as an elite strike-framer. And when he fills in at first base, he's pretty good there too.
All told, there's nothing Posey isn't excelling at in 2015. And in doing so, he's managed to somehow become an even greater player than the one he already was.
4. Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals
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Max Scherzer was a dominant pitcher in the American League, winning a Cy Young in 2013 and posting a 3.15 ERA in 220.1 innings last year. As such, it was easy to have high hopes for his transition to the National League.
But heck, I doubt anyone could have expected him to be this good.
Scherzer has torn his way through 123.1 innings to the tune of a 2.12 ERA, one of the top marks in the majors. And in keeping with our theme here, even that doesn't do him proper justice.
In addition to having one of the league's 10 best strikeout rates, Scherzer also has a bottom-five walk rate. Put the two together, and you get a K/BB ratio that's the best in the league by a mile.
But Scherzer has done more than just rack up strikeouts without issuing free passes. He's also managed contact at an elite level, ranking in the top 10 in both Soft% and in average exit velocity.
So rather than a 2.12 ERA, FIP thinks Scherzer deserves something more like a 2.04 ERA. DRA goes a big step further, saying his ERA should be more like 1.63.
Regardless, what we've seen Scherzer do is transform from a pitcher who was already great into the most dominant pitcher in the game.
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Paul Goldschmidt was an MVP-caliber player in 2013, and he barely took a step back in an injury-shortened season in 2014 when he posted a .938 OPS and hit 19 jacks in 109 games.
But none of that was Goldschmidt at his best. Goldschmidt at his best is happening right now.
In 84 games, the Diamondbacks' slugging first baseman is leading the National League with his .349 average, and he also owns a 1.085 OPS and 20 home runs. He's in the discussion for the best hitter in baseball, and his 16 steals help put him in the discussion for best overall offensive player too.
Goldschmidt is doing a few things to make this possible. First, he's balancing walks and strikeouts better than ever. He's also using the whole field better, and he's among the elites at both avoiding soft contact and generating hard contact.
And yes, Goldschmidt can also pick it at first base. That's the opinion of defensive runs saved, anyway, which has him as the best defender at first base.
Goldschmidt isn't quite the best player in baseball. But right now, he has a stronger claim to that honor than most seem to think.
2. Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals
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Bryce Harper was far from a bad player in his first three seasons, but we spent much of our time wondering when he was going to turn into the transcendent superstar that he was supposed to be.
Well, it started to happen at the end of 2014, when he finished on a tear that extended into the postseason. And in 2015, it hasn't let up.
Harper has been nigh unstoppable at the plate with a .343 average, a 1.181 OPS and 25 home runs in 78 games. He's standing firmly by himself as the game's most dominant hitter, and how he got there makes total sense.
Harper's much-improved BB/K ratio is reflective of a much more focused approach. He's cut down his swings outside the zone, and his swings-and-misses have gone down as well. When he does make contact, he's hitting a career-high number of line drives and putting himself among the National League elite in hard contact.
Meanwhile, Harper's transition into a full-time right fielder is going just fine. Defensive runs saved rates him behind only three other everyday right fielders, with the guy just ahead of him being a fella named Jason Heyward.
All told, we're looking at a hitter who's been crushing the ball dating back to late in the 2014 season and is looking like the real deal in right field. Ladies and gents, Harper has finally arrived.
1. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
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You didn't really expect to find anyone else here, did you?
Of course not. Trout established himself as the best all-around player in baseball between 2012 and 2014, and that reputation hasn't been threatened this season. If anything, it's been enhanced.
Trout is hitting .305 with a 1.004 OPS and 24 home runs in 84 games, figures that place him comfortably within the league's top five hitters. Add in his nine stolen bases, and he moves into the league's top three offensive players.
All this is going on in part, as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs and others have noted, because Trout has fixed the problem with high fastballs that led to some inconsistency in 2014. Apart from that, he's cooled it on the fly balls and gone back to being more of a line-drive hitter.
And yet, he's done so without sacrificing any hard contact. On the contrary, he's among the best of the best in terms of both hard-hit rate and exit velocity. More than ever before, Trout is crushing the ball.
On the other side of the ball, it's apparent by now that he may never again be the game-changing defender that he was in 2012. But the metrics at least think he's back to being about average, and average at a premium position like center field is good enough.
The ideal ballplayer is one who can do it all. And as per usual, there's nobody who can do it all like Trout can.
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