MLB's Biggest Surprises, Disappointments of 2015's 1st Half
Things never go exactly according to plan over the course of a Major League Baseball season. In fact, many plans are already off the rails by the time the final out is recorded on Opening Day.
That is how storylines are made, and that is where a season's worth of surprises and disappointments are born. For better and worse, the first few months of this one have ushered in the unexpected.
From the team no one saw coming, to the player living below expectations, to the out-of-nowhere game-changing trends, to the team expected to be a World Series contender looking like a midseason bust, they are all part of the ebbs and flows of the baseball summer.
This season has already given us all of those things and then some, like the stunning rise of the Houston Astros and the incredible decline of stars like Matt Kemp and Pablo Sandoval. Keep clicking to see some of the biggest surprises and disappointments at the season's halfway mark.
Surprise: Premature Rise of the Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros were not supposed to come this quickly. The timeline most envisioned did not have them contending until 2016, at the earliest. HardballTalk.com's preseason prediction said in order for the team to even reach .500 this season, things had to break right for the Astros. So far, they certainly have.
They started obliterating that belief midway through the first month when they went on a run of 14 wins in 15 games, whipping preseason contenders like the Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Oakland A's and San Diego Padres in that span. By early May, the Astros had a seven-game lead in the American League West, raising the inevitable question: Would they fall back in line, or were they real?
Halfway in, the Astros are most definitely the real thing.
They have a legitimate ace in Dallas Keuchel, another budding top-of-the-rotation starter in Lance McCullers, a bullpen capable of domination and a power-driven lineup complete with up-and-coming superstars like Carlos Correa and George Springer. As of Monday, the Astros held a 3.5-game lead in the American League West and a plus-62 run differential, third-best in the majors.
"I've always been a very positive mind," 2014 AL batting champ Jose Altuve told Jake Lourim of USA Today. "So I knew. I knew we were going to get to this point. I knew the effort of the front office and the players put together, some day it was going to be good like it is right now."
The unexpected rise is not just paying off in the standings, although that is where it counts most. The team also had two players selected to play in the All-Star Game, Altuve and Keuchel, and is likely to flood the American League roster in the coming years.
Disappointment: The Boston Red Sox and Their Offseason Splashes
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It was no secret the Boston Red Sox would have pitching issues going into this season. They went hard in the offseason, but none of their big acquisitions pitch, leaving them with a lineup that had the potential to be potent but little in the way of run prevention.
The rotation has rebounded from being completely bad early in the season to just mediocre currently, but it is the blockbuster signings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez that have been almost as detrimental to the team's success.
Sandoval entered Monday hitting .274/.317/.401 with a 99 OPS+ and a minus-0.4 FanGraphs WAR, the seventh-worst total in the majors among qualified players. Considering the Red Sox signed him for $95 million over five years, it's safe to assume they expected more out of the Panda.
And, of course, there was his infamous Instagram incident that got him benched.
Ramirez started his second stint with the Red Sox with authority, hitting 10 home runs in the first month. After a shoulder injury stunted his production, Ramirez got going again in June with a .338/.377/.479 slash line and .855 OPS. For the season, he has 17 homers and a 123 OPS+.
However, his defense in left field, in the first year he's ever played there, has been so atrocious, he also has a negative FanGraphs WAR (minus-0.1). Among all qualified outfielders in the majors, Ramirez's minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved are the worst, as are his minus-11.8 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-31.9 UZR per 150 innings, according to FanGraphs. And just so we aren't all stat-driven here, he's also been brutal in the good old eyeball test.
Making matters worse is the fact the Red Sox held a meeting in part to discuss Ramirez's effort level in the field.
The Red Sox have other problems besides Pablo and Hanley, but just like the team, those two offseason acquisitions have been disappointing.
Surprise: The Influx of Blue-Chip Prospects
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Baseball is skewing younger and younger these days. Throughout the first half, many of the game's top prospects have flooded the majors, and while some have predictably struggled, plenty of others have thrived.
Of Baseball America's Top 25 prospects, an amazing 16 have played in the majors this season, including the top four—Kris Bryant, Byron Buxton, Addison Russell and Carlos Correa. Several more prospects in the Top 100 have done so as well.
Of the influx of rookies, Chicago Cubs third baseman Bryant and Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Joc Pederson made the National League All-Star team, and had Correa not entered Monday with only 112 plate appearances, he certainly would have made the American League roster.
These promotions have brought new blood into the game, especially offensively, as the game is slowly but surely undergoing a changing of the guard.
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Disappointment: Stephen Strasburg's Ineffectiveness and Injuries
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This was supposed to be the year Strasburg lived up to his ace billing and No. 1 overall draft slot from 2009. A 2.70 ERA after last year's All-Star break was the lead-in to what was to come, or so everyone thought.
Instead, 2015 has been filled with disappointment for Strasburg, a pitcher the Washington Nationals expected to slide in behind Max Scherzer in what had the makings of a great rotation when the year started.
"I’m disappointed he hasn’t gotten farther from a maturation and progression standpoint,” Curt Schilling said on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball telecast.
He was placed on the disabled list Sunday for the second time this season. This time, it was for an oblique strain suffered Saturday, and the first was a neck issue. It is the fifth time in his six-year career he has gone on the DL, spending a total of 454 days on it—that includes the minimum 15 for this latest trip, though it could be more.
Strasburg made three starts since coming off his first DL stint, and he was decisively better than he was before. In 10 starts before the first injury, Strasburg put up a 6.55 ERA, and the Nationals went 3-7. In three starts since, he had a 1.15 ERA in 15.2 innings—he lasted only 3.2 innings Saturday before coming out with the oblique—and the team went 3-0.
The latest injury halts what looked like an effective Strasburg, which the Nationals need in their rotation considering they've gotten disappointing first halves from Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister.
"Everything happens for a reason," Strasburg told James Wagner of the Washington Post. "I'm just gonna look at it that way and try and stay positive and get back out here to help this team as soon as I can."
With a healthy Strasburg, the Nationals are World Series contenders. Without him, they are iffy.
Surprise: St. Louis Cardinals' Historically Good Rotation—Without Its Ace
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Coming into the season, the St. Louis Cardinals had plenty of questions regarding their rotation. Health and production concerns littered every potential starter besides ace Adam Wainwright. But then, after just four starts, Wainwright was lost for the season with an Achilles injury.
The rest of the bunch has picked up the slack. Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Carlos Martinez, John Lackey and Jaime Garcia have helped give the rotation a major league-leading 2.75 ERA. That has pushed the Cardinals to the best record in the majors and a comfortable six-game lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Central.
That ERA, if it holds up through the season, would be the franchise's lowest rotation ERA ever—including 1969, when Bob Gibson and Steve Carlton led the way to a 2.80 ERA. It would also be the first sub-3.00 ERA since the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies did so and finished with 102 wins. If the Cardinals pull it off, they and the Phillies would be the only rotations to have an ERA under 3.00 since the 1992 Atlanta Braves.
"As far as talent-wise, we've got some guys with some pretty good arms, especially Carlos and Wacha and the young guys," Lackey told Luke Thompson of Fox Sports last month. "Lance is coming into his own prime and Jaime's come in and really helped us out with some quality starts."
Disappointment: The San Diego Padres' Failed Makeover
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It is possible that no team was expected to improve from last season more than the Padres. Those expectations came as a result of their radical offseason makeover that brought in Matt Kemp, James Shields, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Craig Kimbrel and Derek Norris, among others. It also greatly shifted Las Vegas betting odds on them winning the National League pennant and World Series.
The team's first 15 games had them flirting with living up to the hype, as they won 10 of them. But it has been just about all bad since then. They are 8.5 games out of first place in the National League West and seven out of the second wild-card berth.
It was that kind of play that got respected manager Bud Black fired last month.
"We were all shocked. I'm really surprised at the timing," Kemp told reporters at the time. "There should be a lot of disappointment in the clubhouse with the way we played."
That disappointment has not faded since Black's departure. The Padres, who were a game below .500 on Black's watch, are 7-12 with new manager Pat Murphy, have lost three in a row entering Tuesday and have gone from six games back in the division to 8.5.
Things have gotten so bad that there has even been talk of the team selling at the trade deadline, and Justin Upton and Andrew Cashner could be the Padres' most valuable chips.
If a big sale does indeed happen, the Padres just might end up the most disappointing team of 2015.
Surprise: A-Rod as Offensive Force for Yankees
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The last time we saw Alex Rodriguez on a baseball field before this season, he looked like a broken-down player speeding down the decline of his career, which had been bruised and battered by his performance-enhancing drug scandals.
After a year away from the game because of his Biogenesis suspension, the 39-year-old Rodriguez had plenty of detractors, some of which wondered if he would embarrass himself upon his return. What they seemed to forget was that, with or without PEDs, A-Rod was still one of the greatest hitters the game has ever seen, and he was presumably healthy.
Rodriguez has silenced the critics in the first half, hitting .284/.390/.513 with a .902 OPS, 16 home runs and a 149 adjusted OPS entering the week. His adjusted OPS was eighth-best in the league, according to Baseball-Reference.com, his 149 wRC+ is 12th-highest in the majors (per FanGraphs), and it is fair to say he was snubbed from the American League All-Star roster Monday.
"Of course it would have been an honor to represent the American League next week," Rodriguez said in a statement, "but I'll have fun cheering on the guys who were put on the team and watching them protect home field."
Disappointment: Giancarlo Stanton's Never-Ending Slew of Injuries
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Giancarlo Stanton is no doubt one of the game's biggest, brightest and most powerful superstars. But his inability to stay healthy, which is something he can't really control, has taken him away from the Miami Marlins once again, depriving the baseball world of his offensive excellence and MLB's showcasing of him in the All-Star Game.
It is the fourth consecutive season Stanton has missed significant time because of injuries, and it is possible that him being out up to six weeks with a broken bone in his hand suffered a little more than a week ago will force the Marlins to be sellers rather than buyers at the July 31 trade deadline.
Stanton is one of MLB's most marketable players, but if he cannot stay on the field, it is hard to get the full force of his impact. His injuries this season have again sapped the sport of that, and that is undoubtedly one of the first half's biggest disappointments.
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