Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 11's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice

Summer is the worst time for fantasy baseball players to take a vacation.

After watching the standings experience daily seismic shifts early in the season, some clarity will now form. A team staring at fourth place for the past three weeks now knows playing the waiting game won't get the job done.

Besides, baseball is now the only game in town with the NBA and NHL entering offseason mode. Fantasy football draft preparation can wait a while longer.

So as everyone else fires up the grill or hits the beach, start crafting some trade offers before it's too late. To inspire the creative juices, here are three players worth targeting for a bargain and three others to jettison before their stock crashes.

Buy Low: Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants

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At first glance, Brandon Belt looks like an ideal sell-high candidate. A year after hitting .243, he has authored a .275 batting average. Simple case of an inflated .355 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), right?

Probably not. Belt is a prime example of why BABIP isn't always a standalone messenger of good or bad luck. The 27-year-old has earned his fortune with a 45.6 hard-hit percentage, second in the majors behind Giancarlo Stanton. His 33.6 line-drive rate leads everyone, with first-base peer Lucas Duda offering a similar case study.

Trading fly balls for liners and pull power for gap pop will cost him a few Belted sessions, but he's still on a healthy pace for around 20 homers and a few spare steals. If he sustains these adjustments, he has mass appeal as Freddie Freeman Lite, an ideal corner infielder for someone with pure power elsewhere.

Someone looking simply at his high BABIP or solid (but unspectacular) surface numbers across the board will underrate Belt's merit. Even though he's not the typical buy-low candidate, he meets the concept's ultimate goal of locating value.

Sell High: Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Detroit Tigers

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A .269 hitter over four MLB seasons, Yoenis Cespedes is currently batting a career-high .302. Unlike Belt, his .356 BABIP is no more than an unsustainable outlier. 

His 30.5 hard-hit average is right on line with his career 31.8 rate. Making matters worse, he is pelting balls into the infield dirt far more with a 46.7 ground-ball percentage. Hitting so many grounders is a losing formula for someone without track speed.

There's nothing new afloat with his poor strikeout tendencies, and he's on track for another 20-25 homer campaign. Valuable, sure, but not as much when he hits .250-.260 the rest of the way.

Recording a hit in all but one June start, Cespedes is raking with a .929 OPS. Take advantage and cash out before he inevitably cools down.

Buy Low: Alex Wood, SP, Atlanta Braves

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Aside from a 3.40 ERA, Alex Wood has underwhelmed with a 1.42 WHIP, .281 batting average against and 6.81 strikeouts per nine innings. From someone entering the year with top-20 upside at a deep position, the starting pitcher has fallen well short of the hype.

Yet there's hope for the 24-year-old lefty turning the corner. He has dialed up 19 strikeouts during his last 17.1 innings of work, showing signs of the hurler's career 8.41 K/9 rate. Owning a 46.9 ground-ball percentage, he shouldn't get hit this hard all year long. 

Wood concluded last year with a 2.20 ERA and 9.21 K/9 rate after the All-Star break. As pedestrian as his numbers look now, he's still a young talent with considerable appeal if he generates more whiffs. See if his WHIP and middling win total (four) cause his owner to readily cough him up.

Sell High: Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins

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Set the calendars. On Monday night, Jose Fernandez revealed July 2 as his return date during the Miami Marlins broadcast.

“I feel pretty much ready,” he said, per the Palm Beach Post's Tom D'Angelo. “My stamina feels good. ... Strength-wise I’m good.”

If his announcement didn't pique everyone's interest enough, the Cuban ace compiled 10 strikeouts during a Single-A rehab start on Wednesday. As a result, the hype will soar for a 22-year-old who's issued a 2.25 ERA and 257 strikeouts through 224.1 innings in his MLB career.

Owners who waited three months for his arrival will embrace his return from Tommy John surgery. Those in yearly leagues, however, should test the trading waters before July 2.

Expecting Fernandez at 100 percent is a lot to ask. Last year, Jeff Zimmerman published a study on The Hardball Times concluding a noticeable drop in performance the year back from the infamous procedure.

Aces are not immune to the drop-off. Adam Wainwright endured a 3.94 ERA upon his return in 2012, and Matt Harvey has suffered a rough patch following a fast start.

Miami won't want to unleash him at full throttle, easing him back into action with tight pitch counts. Fernandez can certainly make a difference right away, but don't bank on an immediate return to Cy Young-caliber production. If someone is willing to pay that price, exchange him for a safer stud. 

Buy Low: Tyson Ross, SP, San Diego Padres

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Hey Tyson Ross, remember how to throw strikes? Although the baseball gods are doing him no favors, he's hurting himself with 4.69 walks per nine innings, the highest rate among qualified starters.

Opponents aren't chasing his slider as much this year, causing the 28-year-old problems after a tremendous season. Yet if he can limit his free passes to a workable amount, there's a lot else to like about Ross.

His 62.3 ground-ball percentage places third, yet no starter is saddled with a higher BABIP than his .372 mark. Over the past two years, he registered BABIPs below .300, but even a return to his .314 career clip will serve just fine.

For all the walks, Ross also has 89 strikeouts through 80.2 innings. His 1.59 WHIP is killing folks, and he'll never compile a stellar one while walking everyone in sight. But the high hit tallies will subside, deflating his ERA enough to warrant keeping the 200-punchout hurler around.

Sell High: Jeurys Familia, RP, New York Mets

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One of the season's most pleasant surprises, Jeurys Familia is gradually showing cracks in his armor.

Quickly snatching the New York Mets' closing gig in April, the 25-year-old has collected 19 saves with a microscopic 1.39 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. With the Mets winning all of their games in low-scoring fashion, only one closer (Mark Melancon) has logged more innings, which is beginning to show.

Although Familia has allowed just one earned run in June, he has enabled 10 baserunners (seven hits, three walks) through 7.1 innings. He went four straight outings without recording a strikeout, giving him only four this month.

Adding to the skepticism, he has benefited from a .221 BABIP despite also registering an elevated 22.8 line-drive percentage. A 96.9 strand rate also won't last, so expect him to serve as a mid- to low-level No. 2 stopper rather than an elite arm down the stretch.

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.